Who will be the 2013 versions of F. Rodney (CL from nowhere), M. Trout (breakout rookie), Lincecum (dud), etc. etc....You get the point- who in 2013 will do some of the things these players did? Read inside for more explanation.
#1
Posted 24 December 2012 - 05:13 PM
Basically, this isn't a who will breakout in 2013 type of thread, but more of a who is going to do that type of thing again (if anyone) thread. A couple categories I thought of when i got the idea to make this (and I didn't see any other posts that were similar, but perhaps I overlooked something- in which case, please just merge and I apologize for any inconvenience)...
I'll give a category and a player who fit the mold for last year for the first few to give people an idea of what I'm getting at here.
Best Rookie Stash Draft Pick (2012, Trout):
[Mediocre] RP Most Likely to Be Abducted From Team Hotel By Aliens, Only to Return as a CL you probably can add off of waivers (2012, Fernando Rodney; Jim Johnson to a lesser extent):
Injury Dud: (2012, Troy Tulowitzki?)
Due For a Sophomore Slump (the Eric Hosmer award):
Import player most likely to make a fantasy impact (2012, Yoenis Cespedes):
Most overvalued pitcher (2012, Matt Moore?....):
Most overvalued position player: (don't even know who to choose for 2012 besides maybe Tulowitzki but that's also due to injury too- so maybe Hanley?):
Most likely to have a power surge (2012, Edwin Encarnacion?):
There's other things one could use for categories, but I could just keep listing things forever really. The idea of this thread is to give owners a discussion as to which players could be the 2013 versions of the aforementioned names. While it's impossible to read into the future with the freak fantasy breakouts, it would be fun to look at this thread next Oct. and see if anyone can nail anything that isn't so predictable. Some of these things are easier to see (i.e. rookie stash would probably be a guy like Myers, maybe Dylan Bundy if you're feeling ballsy and think he'll make it up by May).... but other things are harder to predict, like a Rodney or Jim Johnson rising to the top echelon of fantasy closers.
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B James Loney, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Oswalda Arcia, UTL Brandon Belt
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, SS,2B Danny Espinosa, 3B Juan Franncisco, 2B,OF Ryan Raburn, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (7- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, SP Tony Cingrani, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum, R.A. Dickey
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): SP Johnny Cueto, MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lorenzo Cain, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lucas Duda
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B,LF Adam Dunn, 2B Derek Dietrich, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Mike Minor (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP), P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP)
BN: Jose Fernandez (SP), Scott Kazmir (SP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin
#2
Posted 24 December 2012 - 06:24 PM
Disappointing or Sophomore Slump? Im going for disappointment for a lot of "sleeper" picks that I think is going to end up being overvalued, especially in 2b-ss-ci roto leagues of any size: Josh Rutledge - he had 5 of his 8HR in a 6-game stretch then proceeded to go 2 HR for like 2 months, this despite the meaningless ABS of late August through September.
Best Rookie (Stash) especially if he doesnt have clear job, I would go with Jedd Gyorko, especially with Pads keeping Headley I think he will be a nice grab at second base. Runner up: Nolan Arenado - this guy has clear pathway to a job with nice upside. Could be this years Pedro Alvarez.
Expected regression: Edwin Encarnacion and RA Dickey
#3
Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
C - Castillo $9, Hanigan $4
CI - Sandoval $24, Frazier $10, Alvarez $2, Adams $3, Rendon $5
MI - Castro $27, Segura $16, Gyorko $11, Dietrich $3, Solano $10
OF - BJ Upton $26, Harper $10, Parra $11, Young $5, Moore $5, Taveras $10, Yelich $10, Sappelt $5
SP - Zimmerman $23, Harvey $11, Estrada $11, Minor $8, Corbin $7, Cashner $4, Beachy $3, Wheeler $10
RP - Soriano $25, Henderson $3, Brothers $10, Hector Rondon $2, Valverde $5, Paco Rodriguez $1
#4
Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:41 PM
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
Really good post imo.
#5
Posted 24 December 2012 - 10:58 PM
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
Did you hear they have moved in the fences at Safeco? Its suppose to be hitter friendly now . Does that change your opinion of Hultzen ?
#6
Posted 24 December 2012 - 11:04 PM
motown magic, on 24 December 2012 - 10:58 PM, said:
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
Did you hear they have moved in the fences at Safeco? Its suppose to be hitter friendly now . Does that change your opinion of Hultzen ?
I've heard that, but I've never heard how far. Do you know how far they moved them? Either way, Safeco was pretty big to begin with, they probably just made it normal sized.
C - Castillo $9, Hanigan $4
CI - Sandoval $24, Frazier $10, Alvarez $2, Adams $3, Rendon $5
MI - Castro $27, Segura $16, Gyorko $11, Dietrich $3, Solano $10
OF - BJ Upton $26, Harper $10, Parra $11, Young $5, Moore $5, Taveras $10, Yelich $10, Sappelt $5
SP - Zimmerman $23, Harvey $11, Estrada $11, Minor $8, Corbin $7, Cashner $4, Beachy $3, Wheeler $10
RP - Soriano $25, Henderson $3, Brothers $10, Hector Rondon $2, Valverde $5, Paco Rodriguez $1
#7
Posted 25 December 2012 - 12:10 AM
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
#8
Posted 25 December 2012 - 10:53 AM
http://blog.seattlep...afecofences.jpg
#9
Posted 25 December 2012 - 11:58 AM
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
I agree with almost all of this. Exceptions being:
Pineda- I just don't think he will be overvalued unless he's cracking a rotation- at least maybe not in my league. If he's out well into May and/or beyond, he is not worth more than a $1 pick or $3.
Chapman- I do agree the hype will be unreal, and I won't pay for him unless he falls into my hands even if he looks like he'd be fun as hell to own- but I am a believer that unless he gets hurt, he will probably K 220 in his sleep and that value alone makes him worth the gamble in ways similar to Darvish was last year... he's just going to be so expensive.
--
Undervalued MI: Scutaro
Overvalued MI: Rutledge
Just wanted to post that. I really don't like Rutledge going into this year either. I recall dropping him right before his 5 HR power barrage last season (and I was a Tulo owner, but I opted to go with Alexei and Plouffe in favor of Rutledge, who I picked up on a random whim one day only to drop him pretty shortly thereafter- he did nothing for my stats in the time on my roster an then went nuts once released).... let's just say once his spree ended, I felt less stupid for cutting him for no reason.
I also agree Molina will be overvalued- BUT- if you want a C who you can count on, he's as good as anyone for the AB and playing time without needing to carry a backup/spot starter who plays consistently. Molina is anywhere from #2-#5 or maybe even #6 for me. C is very deep this year, and outside of Posey, the top 5-10 are all nice choices. Molina, to me, is overvalued because I like to wait on my C. I was able to use Ellis and Jaso last as a pair last year (OBP league, mind you), and I didn't even draft them- I drafted J.P. Arencibia (who I would drop and pick up over and over and over last year, as he became healthy/re-injured/streaked/etc.), Geovany Soto (accidentally bid on him- but I dealt him for Markakis right after the draft somehow, who I would pair w/ Middlebrooks RIGHT before he went down in return for Choo later in the year, which = a win for me I think!), and Jesus Montero (even once he was C eligible, he sucked and I eventually cut him... couldn't deal with his inconsistencies). In the end it was basically Ellis and Jaso anchoring my C staff in 1st. JP would start occasionally when I had him around.
Which brings me to another one- Arencibia...
He's obviously locked into the C role, unless Napoli floats into their hands or something weird happens, right? I mean... there is no Travis d'Anaurd to take over midseason now. Thole is not a starter- and shouldn't see much more time than Mathis did last year (I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays add another backup, honestly).
Looking at his last year, with the injury... he still had 18 HR in under 350 AB. That is impressive power and he possesses it, no doubt. If you can live with a AVG/OBP catcher who will slug HR, he is definitely worth $1-$5 (I got him for $4 in an auction last year, and frankly, I think he might be cheaper this year- then again, you never know given the Jays' new lineup.) He is also very streaky- one of the streakiest and it comes with power barrages- so if you can guess right, it can pay dividends. I recall adding him simply because he had a nice 4 game stretch he was due to start, and I needed one C for the day. Wound up using him 4 days in a row and he put up big numbers, this being in July.
Two months in fact were very solid-
May: 90 AB, 8 HR, 19 RBI, .275 BA, .890 OPS
July: 53 AB, 6 HR, 13 RBI, .321 BA, 1.081 OPS
That is when he broke his hand. Came back and was not the same player, really. 2 HR after that point with an BA below the mendoza line to close the year out. This being said, what if he didn't get hurt? How long would he have continued to hit?
The interesting stat here is with RISP: Arencibia hit .295 (vs. what, .233 on the year?), driving in 44 runs and had 8 HR, all to the tune of a .654 SLG%.
Those are gaudy numbers with runners on base. And think about where he will be batting (somewhere from 6-8, my guess is 7 personally) and the players on front of him who should be getting on base....
Even as top-heavy as that order is- the top 4 or 5 the best in the MLB, perhaps- Arencibia should be able to clean up quietly in the back of that lineup and knock in some runs for sure, even if he doesn't hit for average at all and his OBP is Miguel Olivo bad.
He's worth a look.... more than people will realize. I always like to try to get him super cheap and stash him to see if he can get off to a red hot start. I often think in the case of catchers, getting off to a hot start helps a ton. See guys like Avila, Soto, etc. in the past. A hot start leads to more playing time, and the playing time leads to consistency. The best catchers caught (and catch) a lot of innings for a reason when they have their biggest seasons...
More I'd have liked to type on J.P. Arencibia, but thinking about it got me to thinking how he could be a bargain given his penchant for coming up with the big hit last year (if you aren't a Jays fan or didn't own him, you wouldn't be able to guess without looking at the splits- I wouldn't have known had I not owned him last season- but he did come up big with a lot of RBIs from the bottom of that order).
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B James Loney, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Oswalda Arcia, UTL Brandon Belt
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, SS,2B Danny Espinosa, 3B Juan Franncisco, 2B,OF Ryan Raburn, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (7- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, SP Tony Cingrani, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum, R.A. Dickey
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): SP Johnny Cueto, MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lorenzo Cain, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lucas Duda
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B,LF Adam Dunn, 2B Derek Dietrich, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Mike Minor (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP), P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP)
BN: Jose Fernandez (SP), Scott Kazmir (SP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin
#10
Posted 25 December 2012 - 12:09 PM
Nick Mitchell, on 25 December 2012 - 11:58 AM, said:
baltimore_boy, on 24 December 2012 - 10:13 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Greg Holland. Not sure if he counts, but I'm very high on him. Has a solid K potential and the Royals actually should be decent this year and produce save opps. Also considered - Kyuji Fujikawa, Glen Perkins, Broxton.
Sophmore Slump - Josh Reddick. He really fell apart after a hot start to the year. I can see that downward momentum carrying over to the start of this year. Also considered - Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Manny Machado
Injury Dud - This is difficult to predict, but I have a bad feeling about Sale this year. People keep saying he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Also considered - Tulo, Rollins, Posey, Morneau.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. I don't know much about him, but he was highly coveted and is slotted into a rotation spot on a decent Dodgers team. Also considered - Fujikawa, Hiroyuki Nakajima.
Most overvalued pitcher - Kris Medlen. I do think he will be good, but the hype train will likely cause him to be overdrafted as people will be expecting a repeat of his second half from last year. Also considered - Aroldis Chapman, Michael Pineda
Most overvalued hitter - Yadier Molina. He's set to be drafted as the number 2 or 3 catcher. Last year seems like a fluke to me. He plays great defense, but has really only ever produced average. Don't see him being able to have the stats to back up his draft posititon. Also considered - Shane Victorino, Hanley Ramirez, Adam Jones
Power Surge - Allen Craig. Everything seems right for him. His power potential is huge, finally has a starting job, and is also healthy. If he stays healthy, he could be similar to Encarnacion's 2012. Also considered - Wilin Rosario, Chris Davis, Bryce Harper
I agree with almost all of this. Exceptions being:
Pineda- I just don't think he will be overvalued unless he's cracking a rotation- at least maybe not in my league. If he's out well into May and/or beyond, he is not worth more than a $1 pick or $3.
Chapman- I do agree the hype will be unreal, and I won't pay for him unless he falls into my hands even if he looks like he'd be fun as hell to own- but I am a believer that unless he gets hurt, he will probably K 220 in his sleep and that value alone makes him worth the gamble in ways similar to Darvish was last year... he's just going to be so expensive.
I just don't trust Pineda in Yankee Stadium. I don't see him being very successful.
Also, the hype for Chapman is going to be huge. It's the same thing with Medlen to me. I do think both will be great this year, but will not follow up on the lofty stats that everyone will be expecting them to produce. They are both solid number 2 pitchers that will be drafted with the aces.
C - Castillo $9, Hanigan $4
CI - Sandoval $24, Frazier $10, Alvarez $2, Adams $3, Rendon $5
MI - Castro $27, Segura $16, Gyorko $11, Dietrich $3, Solano $10
OF - BJ Upton $26, Harper $10, Parra $11, Young $5, Moore $5, Taveras $10, Yelich $10, Sappelt $5
SP - Zimmerman $23, Harvey $11, Estrada $11, Minor $8, Corbin $7, Cashner $4, Beachy $3, Wheeler $10
RP - Soriano $25, Henderson $3, Brothers $10, Hector Rondon $2, Valverde $5, Paco Rodriguez $1
#11
Posted 25 December 2012 - 12:46 PM
Surprise Closer- Addison Reed was just made to be a closer. He feautures a devastating fastball and 2 other plus pitches. The White Sox will give him plenty of opportunities and i can see him racking in 35-40 saves by years end.
Sophomore Slump- I agree with Baltimore
Injury dud- Dustin Pedrioia. just dont think he can stay healthy throughout the season and even when he does come back i think hell produce sub par numbers. He is defiantly on the decline since his MVP season
Most Overvalued Pitcher- Zach Greinke. People will think hell get plenty of run support from the Angels which he will but Milwaukee park was his home and now hes away from there and i dont think he adjusts to the stadium very well in the first year. The k's will be there but i think the ERA will be high 3's or low 4's
Most Overvalued hitter-Brian Mccann- Catchers are thin this year and people will defiantly reach for him and i see him producing like he did last year
Power Surge-Ike davis, started out the year horribly and still ended up with 32 homeruns on the year. i can see that number moving up to the mid to late 40's this year as i dont think hell go through his struggles this year because remember he did have the nile virus as well
Edited by NyMetsfan5, 25 December 2012 - 12:52 PM.
"What do we need anybody for? We have Victor Cruz.”
-Coach Tom Coughlin
NFL Favorite Players; Victor Cruz and Cj Spiller
NBA favorite players: Carmelo Anthony(of course) and Damian Lillard (better than Kyrie when its all said and done)
President of Matt Harvey Fan club
#12
Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:18 PM
"...the knowledge of the game is usually in inverse proportion to the price of the seats." ~ Bill Veeck
"The last time Willie Mays dropped a pop fly he had a rattle in one hand and a bonnet on his head." ~ Jim Murray
"If my uniform doesn't get dirty, I haven't done anything in the baseball game." ~ Rickey Henderson
"The difference between the old ballplayer and the new ballplayer is the jersey. The old ballplayer cared about the name on the front. The new ballplayer cares about the name on the back." ~ Steve Garvey
"If a tie is like kissing your sister, losing is like kissing your grandmother with her teeth out." ~ George Brett
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." ~ Rogers Hornsby
"Winning depends on where you put your priorities. It's usually best to put them over the fence." ~ Jason Giambi
#13
Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:51 PM
Surprise closer - Kelvin Herrera. Best relief pitcher no one talks about. He can hit 100mph with regularity but his best pitch is his 87mph changeup with movement. He's better than Greg Holland.
Sophmore Slump - Mike Trout. He's a phenom but he's human. The league will have a chance to adjust somewhat. No player is a sure thing.
Injury Dud - No point in speculating but name a pitcher and you've got a good chance of being right.
Import player - Hyu-Jin Ryu. Don't see him as a star but he should be effective.
Most overvalued pitcher - Wade Miley. I'm not a believer.
Most overvalued hitter - Allen Craig. No steals. Has a history of injury problems. And just because he hit 22 HR in 119 games doesn't mean he will be just as good in those other games.
Power Surge - Cameron Maybin. He changed his batting stance from a high leg kick to a leg twist and he had much better numbers in the second half. He also was among the leaders in average home run distance last year and he hit the 3rd longest homerun in baseball last year. He came up as a prospect that some scouts said could hit 30 bombs one day. I don't see that anymore, but 15 is a fair bet.
#14
Posted 25 December 2012 - 08:52 PM
C: Posey
1B: Butler
2B: Kipnis
3B: Moustakas
SS: Asdrubal
IF: Alvarez
OF: McCutchen, Trout, Ethier, Young
U: Hardy, Duda, Gattis
Bench: McKenry, Sizemore, Nelson, Izturis
SP: Gio, Zimmerman, McCarthy, Holland, Bedard, McAllister, M. Gonzalez, Villanueva, Kazmir, J Sanchez
RP: Melancon, Pestano, Bailey, Frieri, Kelly, Rodney, Doolittle, Bell,, Rosenthal, Henderson, Cecil, Lyon, Bastardo
DL: Hutchison, Karstens, Affeldt
Notable prospects (35 man rosters):
Bundy, Mike Montgomery, Straily, Dahl, Hembree, Casey Kelly, Sims, DJ Davis, Heredia
#15
Posted 25 December 2012 - 09:39 PM
sportsfreak2744, on 25 December 2012 - 03:51 PM, said:
Surprise closer - Kelvin Herrera. Best relief pitcher no one talks about. He can hit 100mph with regularity but his best pitch is his 87mph changeup with movement. He's better than Greg Holland.
Most overvalued hitter - Allen Craig. No steals. Has a history of injury problems. And just because he hit 22 HR in 119 games doesn't mean he will be just as good in those other games.
Power Surge - Cameron Maybin. He changed his batting stance from a high leg kick to a leg twist and he had much better numbers in the second half. He also was among the leaders in average home run distance last year and he hit the 3rd longest homerun in baseball last year. He came up as a prospect that some scouts said could hit 30 bombs one day. I don't see that anymore, but 15 is a fair bet.
I like these a lot.
I also don't think Addison Reed does too great this year, personally. I could see him falling into a Walden-like trap honestly.
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B James Loney, 2B Kelly Johnson, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Elvis Andrus, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Gerardo Parra, OF Denard Span, OF Domonic Brown, OF Oswalda Arcia, UTL Brandon Belt
BN: C,1B,3B Jordan Pacheo, SS,2B Danny Espinosa, 3B Juan Franncisco, 2B,OF Ryan Raburn, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (7- any kind) SP Felix Hernandez, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Shelby Miller, SP Mike Minor, SP Tony Cingrani, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson
BN: SP Tim Lincecum, R.A. Dickey
DL: (2 allotted slots at once): SP Johnny Cueto, MR Ryan Madson
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG / W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Lyle Overbay, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Todd Frazier, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lorenzo Cain, OF Adam Jones, UTL Lucas Duda
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheo, 1B,LF Adam Dunn, 2B Derek Dietrich, RF Marcell Ozuna, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Mike Minor (SP); RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP); P (4- any kind) P Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP), P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Brandon League (RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP)
BN: Jose Fernandez (SP), Scott Kazmir (SP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy, CF Cameron Maybin
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