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Josh Johnson 2013 OutlookGoing from MIA to TOR


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#1 FouLLine

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:40 PM

Josh Johnson continues to have successful surgery after successful surgery.  So durability is also in question with this guy.  Honestly sometimes I think they just installed a robotic arm on this guy.

One plus side is he stayed healthy in 2012 pitching in 31 starts good for 191.33 innings pitched.

Being healthy for a full season for the first time since 2009 was a good sign.  But at the same time JJ's numbers weren't quite as good as they usually are.  His 1.28 WHIP and his 7.73 K/9 were close to his 1.23 WHIP and 8.17 K/9 for his career but his ERA of 3.81 was well off of his 3.15 career ERA.

Now with the switch to The AL brings a lot of questions.  I for one think it will be a good change.  He is on a team who looks like they are better built to win as well as in a whole new division.  The AL East is no longer the power house hitting division it has been over the past few years.

Either way he looks to be coming at a great value as a post 10th round pitcher.  He does come with a fair deal of risk but I think his upside out weights the risk.

#2 BuccaneerJesse

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:50 PM

I, for one, am targeting JJ hard this year. Fantastic value.
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#3 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 01:58 PM

View PostBuccaneerJesse, on 25 December 2012 - 01:50 PM, said:

I, for one, am targeting JJ hard this year. Fantastic value.

Yeah the value should be there as yes he is injury prone and he is moving to The AL.

He's a total risk reward type pick.

#4 jsp2014

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM

View PostFouLLine, on 25 December 2012 - 01:40 PM, said:

Josh Johnson continues to have successful surgery after successful surgery.  So durability is also in question with this guy.  Honestly sometimes I think they just installed a robotic arm on this guy.

One plus side is he stayed healthy in 2012 pitching in 31 starts good for 191.33 innings pitched.

Being healthy for a full season for the first time since 2009 was a good sign.  But at the same time JJ's numbers weren't quite as good as they usually are.  His 1.28 WHIP and his 7.73 K/9 were close to his 1.23 WHIP and 8.17 K/9 for his career but his ERA of 3.81 was well off of his 3.15 career ERA.

Now with the switch to The AL brings a lot of questions.  I for one think it will be a good change.  He is on a team who looks like they are better built to win as well as in a whole new division.  The AL East is no longer the power house hitting division it has been over the past few years.

Either way he looks to be coming at a great value as a post 10th round pitcher.  He does come with a fair deal of risk but I think his upside out weights the risk.

Surgery after surgery? As far as I know he has not had surgery since his TJ over 5 years ago.

He was not the same pitcher last year. And now he's in the AL East. He's one of my favorite pitchers but pretty sure I'm hands off this year. Not only is he a perpetual injury risk, but now we have to worry that the numbers might not be there.

Don't know how anyone can call a move from NL East to AL East a good thing.

Edited by jsp2014, 25 December 2012 - 02:41 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#5 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 02:44 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

Surgery after surgery? As far as I know he has not had surgery since his TJ over 5 years ago.

He was not the same pitcher last year. And now he's in the AL East. He's one of my favorite pitchers but pretty sure I'm hands off this year. Not only is he a perpetual injury risk, but now we have to worry that the numbers might not be there.

Don't know how anyone can call a move from NL East to AL East a good thing.

He had a shoulder surgery too.

#6 FouLLine

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 02:55 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

Surgery after surgery? As far as I know he has not had surgery since his TJ over 5 years ago.

He had shoulder surgery last offseason.  Which I think has been it.  But either way 2 surgeries in the past 5 years is clearly not a positive note.

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

He was not the same pitcher last year. And now he's in the AL East. He's one of my favorite pitchers but pretty sure I'm hands off this year. Not only is he a perpetual injury risk, but now we have to worry that the numbers might not be there.

Don't know how anyone can call a move from NL East to AL East a good thing.

I meant more of a blessing in disguise if you will.  I've stated on here many times in many different posts that I don't believe The AL Central is what it used to be.  Sure The NL East is a better division to pitch in than The AL East.  But to a veteran pitcher like JJ a new division means many hitters who haven't seen you a whole lot.  So he's likely to start the season out really well.

Edited by FouLLine, 25 December 2012 - 02:56 PM.


#7 jsp2014

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:28 PM

View PostFouLLine, on 25 December 2012 - 02:55 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

Surgery after surgery? As far as I know he has not had surgery since his TJ over 5 years ago.

He had shoulder surgery last offseason.  Which I think has been it.  But either way 2 surgeries in the past 5 years is clearly not a positive note.

did not think he ever ended up going under the knife. thought they just let him rest for nearly 12 months. not seeing anything about shoulder surgery anywhere either



Quote

I meant more of a blessing in disguise if you will.  I've stated on here many times in many different posts that I don't believe The AL Central is what it used to be.  Sure The NL East is a better division to pitch in than The AL East.  But to a veteran pitcher like JJ a new division means many hitters who haven't seen you a whole lot.  So he's likely to start the season out really well.


blessing in disguise is a fairer term for it. it's not a disaster but it's not a net positive.

Edited by jsp2014, 25 December 2012 - 03:31 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#8 jsp2014

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:32 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 02:44 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 02:40 PM, said:

Surgery after surgery? As far as I know he has not had surgery since his TJ over 5 years ago.

He was not the same pitcher last year. And now he's in the AL East. He's one of my favorite pitchers but pretty sure I'm hands off this year. Not only is he a perpetual injury risk, but now we have to worry that the numbers might not be there.

Don't know how anyone can call a move from NL East to AL East a good thing.

He had a shoulder surgery too.


fairly certain that you are both wrong about shoulder surgery.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#9 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:47 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

fairly certain that you are both wrong about shoulder surgery.

Looking into this to be sure and it's hard to find definitive evidence.  But I remember in 2011 he was shut down near the end of the season because he was supposed to get surgery.  One site says he had it another says he avoided it.

Bleacher Report says he had it
http://bleacherrepor...t-in-huge-trade

Random Website says he never needed it (which doesn't automatically mean he didn't get it)
http://bats.blogs.ny...k-to-dominance/

#10 jsp2014

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 03:55 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 25 December 2012 - 03:47 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 25 December 2012 - 03:32 PM, said:

fairly certain that you are both wrong about shoulder surgery.

Looking into this to be sure and it's hard to find definitive evidence.  But I remember in 2011 he was shut down near the end of the season because he was supposed to get surgery.  One site says he had it another says he avoided it.

Bleacher Report says he had it
http://bleacherrepor...t-in-huge-trade

Random Website says he never needed it (which doesn't automatically mean he didn't get it)
http://bats.blogs.ny...k-to-dominance/



he did not get surgery.

bleacher report articles are authored by random dolts.

Edited by jsp2014, 25 December 2012 - 03:57 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#11 LyondellBasell

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Posted 25 December 2012 - 10:12 PM

if you owned him last year, you know there's no reason to be excited about getting him this year.
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#12 Dissection

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:54 PM

I'm 99.9% sure he didn't have surgery,I think they listed it as "inflammation".I had him on my team that year.

#13 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 01:30 AM

He used to be one of my favorite players but I don't like the division move. I don't think the AL East is that strong anymore, but it is still better than the NL East. He pitched better in the 2nd half but it would appear he's traded some velocity for better health. In my AL-only keeper league, I will likely bid on him as he will be one of the better pitchers available..but for a standard mixed league, I wouldn't feel good if he was any higher than my #3.

#14 Primetime_21

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 09:51 AM

He was a couple ticks slower on his fastball last year, coming off of the surgery. I don't think you can really expect him to gain that velocity back, but if he does, he could get bak to his dominant self.... keep an eye out in spring. I think without seeing some kind of positive report I'd probably avoid him...just too many injury issues. It's hard enough to keep a rotation together without having guys with bad injury histories on your team. That said, if he drops far enough...why not?

#15 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 12:39 AM

I think he would need to drop off to be a SP4 on your squad for him to be worth the injury, division, and diminished skills risk.

He's pretty good but just think there will be a lot  better options in the area he is going, with pitchers who are on their way up.  Crazy that this guy was in EPSN Franchise draft in 2011 as a top 30 player you'd want to start your franchise with.
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#16 PRoSPx

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 12:45 AM

If his shoulder is 100% healthy I think he's worth the gamble.

#17 2ndCitySox

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 01:44 PM

Anyone think he can be an SP2 this year?
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#18 jackmurphy

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 02:26 PM

http://www.fangraphs...y-josh-johnson/

That article gives a good breakdown of JJ this year
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#19 jb_power

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 03:53 PM

Is Johnson damaged goods or a possible bargain for 2013 ... I'm leaning towards bargain:

From RW news page:


Josh Johnson retired all 11 batters he faced, striking out five of them, Friday against the Braves.
Johnson has been sharp this spring, allowing just one run and two hits in 7 1/3 innings. He's yet to walk a batter. The switch from the NL to the AL hurts Johnson's ERA and WHIP upside in mixed leagues, but he has the stuff to handle the move better than most National League pitchers would. Plus, he's due much better run support than usual as a member of the Blue Jays.

#20 KansasTrooper

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 04:30 PM

View Postjb_power, on 08 March 2013 - 03:53 PM, said:

Is Johnson damaged goods or a possible bargain for 2013 ... I'm leaning towards bargain:

From RW news page:


Josh Johnson retired all 11 batters he faced, striking out five of them, Friday against the Braves.
Johnson has been sharp this spring, allowing just one run and two hits in 7 1/3 innings. He's yet to walk a batter. The switch from the NL to the AL hurts Johnson's ERA and WHIP upside in mixed leagues, but he has the stuff to handle the move better than most National League pitchers would. Plus, he's due much better run support than usual as a member of the Blue Jays.

This is very encouraging.  However, I know not to get wrapped up into ST statistics.  I think JJ will be more of a bargin this season rather then a bust.




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