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Johnny Cueto 2013 Outlook


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#1 Slatykamora

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Posted 26 December 2012 - 07:21 PM

What do we think of him after his stellar 2012 season? Since he came off the DL in 2011 he is been solid. While the ERA indicators have expected regression.

He raised his K rate from 6 to 7 K/9 last year. He retained a high Groundball rate. . Though it lowered from 53 to 48. While his Linedrive rate went from 16.2 to 21.7. While keeping his Flyball rate under 30. Which is key to have success in that homer friendly bandbox he pitches in.

His BABIP normalized last year too...

Did tail off at the end of his 2012 campaign

15-18 Wins, 150-170 Ks somewhere over 200 innings 2.80-3.10 ERA 1.15 WHIP?

Obviously his K/9 is not going to be attractive in leagues with a strict IP cap

Edited by Slatykamora, 26 December 2012 - 07:24 PM.


#2 dzemens

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:13 AM

Hes a guy that always seems to out pitch his peripherals and as a result always seems to be there later in drafts. Doesnt get the respect bigger names with his numbers would and usually makes for a very good value pick. It seem as his K rate has declined he has been able to successfully offset it with that increased GB% as you alluded to. In leagues that count wins or QS hes a great asset in either category on that team. I like him as an SP3 type if you can get him at that value but I am hesitant to overpay if the price gets too high on soft tossers like this, though he was an integral part of two of my rotations last year and Id like to get him to do the same!
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#3 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:26 PM

Hes a guy that always seems to out pitch his peripherals and as a result always seems to be there later in drafts. Doesnt get the respect bigger names with his numbers would and usually makes for a very good value pick. It seem as his K rate has declined he has been able to successfully offset it with that increased GB% as you alluded to. In leagues that count wins or QS hes a great asset in either category on that team. I like him as an SP3 type if you can get him at that value but I am hesitant to overpay if the price gets too high on soft tossers like this, though he was an integral part of two of my rotations last year and Id like to get him to do the same!


Cueto is not a soft tosser, quite the opposite actually.

#4 dzemens

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:31 PM


Hes a guy that always seems to out pitch his peripherals and as a result always seems to be there later in drafts. Doesnt get the respect bigger names with his numbers would and usually makes for a very good value pick. It seem as his K rate has declined he has been able to successfully offset it with that increased GB% as you alluded to. In leagues that count wins or QS hes a great asset in either category on that team. I like him as an SP3 type if you can get him at that value but I am hesitant to overpay if the price gets too high on soft tossers like this, though he was an integral part of two of my rotations last year and Id like to get him to do the same!


Cueto is not a soft tosser, quite the opposite actually.


Youre right, shouldnt have said soft tosser (though his fastball isnt blowing anyone away either) when what I meant was a guy who lately has featured a lower K/9 than one would expect with his stuff. Thats my bad :unsure:
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#5 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 27 December 2012 - 10:38 PM



Hes a guy that always seems to out pitch his peripherals and as a result always seems to be there later in drafts. Doesnt get the respect bigger names with his numbers would and usually makes for a very good value pick. It seem as his K rate has declined he has been able to successfully offset it with that increased GB% as you alluded to. In leagues that count wins or QS hes a great asset in either category on that team. I like him as an SP3 type if you can get him at that value but I am hesitant to overpay if the price gets too high on soft tossers like this, though he was an integral part of two of my rotations last year and Id like to get him to do the same!


Cueto is not a soft tosser, quite the opposite actually.


Youre right, shouldnt have said soft tosser (though his fastball isnt blowing anyone away either) when what I meant was a guy who lately has featured a lower K/9 than one would expect with his stuff. Thats my bad :unsure:


Ok, gotcha. When he first came up he was more intersted in blowing hitters away with the 4 seem FB, but now he primarily uses the 2 seemer and is happy to sacrifice K's for grounders and weak contact.

#6 LyondellBasell

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Posted 28 December 2012 - 02:24 AM

big innings spike last year to 217 fro 156 the prior year ... when last we saw him in the playoffs he was making a first inning exit after pulling an oblique (at least it wasn't arm related).

considering that, plus dusty as the manager, i won't be targeting him on draft day. of course, he'll likely have a low ADP again as usual, so could be worth the investment.

i'll never forget a sunday night game two years ago in atlanta when cueto was fresh off a DL stint for tricep or shoulder soreness, and dusty let him stay in there for 116 pitches in 8 innings a high stress one-run game

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#7 iAugust

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 01:16 AM

Was combing through Cueto's peripherals to see if there were any trends worth noting and I did find an interesting one that bodes well for the future.

First pitch strike % through Cueto's career (59.4%, 56.5%, 55.3%, 55.6%, 62.7%)

That is a pretty huge jump. He went from being one of the leagues worst at getting ahead in the count (2011's 55.6% was 8th worst among qualified pitchers, putting him in the company of guys like Ubaldo, Lincecum, Chacin and Hochevar) to above league average. (League average is 59.4%. Last year's 62.7% put him in the top 30, next to guys like Felix, Fister and Cain)

Getting ahead in the count means throwing less pitches, going deeper into games, having more control over counts and having less pressure on the mound. Obviously not the entire tale of his improved success but definitely a sign of maturity and a thing to look for in the future.

#8 blangtang

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 01:35 AM

16 team league ($350 budget):

Cueto at pick 193 overall for $26

Mat Latos at pick 179 for $22
------------

both of these guys seem cheap to me-maybe its part of the home stadium

a sub 3 ERA for Cueto seems like should get a premium.

maybe I'm missing something

#9 battle2heaven

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 01:39 AM

So normalizing that to reg auction of 260, that's 19 bucks for Cueto, 14 for for latos .

That's about right for cueto, GREAT value for mat though.

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#10 blangtang

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Posted 04 March 2013 - 01:54 AM

So normalizing that to reg auction of 260, that's 19 bucks for Cueto, 14 for for latos .

That's about right for cueto, GREAT value for mat though.


damn, i gotta quit posting observations-you are gonna obliterate the value picks in our draft, if we get enuf people for it to ever occur!

I'm pretty slow when it comes to pitching. Best idea I've uncovered is the focus on NL value pitchers. and maybe a couple oakland A's, since they end up playing like a national league team. maybe some seattle pitchers too, they are in a pitcher friendly park.

I just looked at the fan graph projection for cueto:smack dab between halladay and chris sale. definite value there.

#11 Code of Hammurabi

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 06:29 PM

I gotta think some regression is coming for Cueto. He seems to be pre-ranked insanely high. His K rate soared last season to the highest of his career. Playing in that ballpark worries thought he is great at induces the GB. I think there are better options in those middle rounds.
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#12 Tchaikovsky08

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 07:02 PM

I'm staying away this year.

His ERA was so low due to two notable factors: first, his LOB% was higher than his career average last year, and second, his HR/FB% was 2% lower than his career average.

Supporters might point out that his BABIP-against was a pretty high .296, but I would highlight the fact that he gave up 21.7% line drives last year -- easily the highest of his career. Given his luck, and the fact that he's coming off of such a heavy workload, I think he's due for an ERA regression, making him far less useful since his K/9 isn't anything spectacular (although it's not bad).

Not saying I would never own Cueto, but I don't think he's going to justify a top 65-75 selection as so many experts have pegged him.

#13 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 09:34 PM

I also see a lot of room for regression, peripherals suggest that he SHOULD not repeat those numbers. I'd rather take a Bumgarner type in roughly the same ADP as Cueto.
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#14 Slatykamora

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 10:32 PM

I'm staying away this year.

His ERA was so low due to two notable factors: first, his LOB% was higher than his career average last year, and second, his HR/FB% was 2% lower than his career average.

Supporters might point out that his BABIP-against was a pretty high .296, but I would highlight the fact that he gave up 21.7% line drives last year -- easily the highest of his career. Given his luck, and the fact that he's coming off of such a heavy workload, I think he's due for an ERA regression, making him far less useful since his K/9 isn't anything spectacular (although it's not bad).

Not saying I would never own Cueto, but I don't think he's going to justify a top 65-75 selection as so many experts have pegged him.


I do feel like he is going a little higher than he should. But I also think he is going to be one of those guys that out-pitches the indicators every year. He is a talented pitcher who has done really well at pitching to WEAK contact. As illustrated by his ground ball and ISO over the past 2 years..His OPS against was .614 last year. That number isn't as fluky as people might think. His HR/FB rate has been extremely low since he has come back from the DL in 2011. When Earlier in his career he was trying to blow people away and he was giving up a lot more home runs..

Workload increase is the only thing that I would concern myself with for him. So yeah, I can see the ERA going up a bit...but still be very good.

Edited by Slatykamora, 19 March 2013 - 10:40 PM.


#15 Djop20

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

Didn't make it out of the second inning against the Athletics.

I know it is spring training but I would liked to see better outings leading up to openeing day.

#16 Stickfig13

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 04:11 PM

Everyone always screams regression. They are always wrong with JC.

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#17 Tchaikovsky08

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 04:39 PM

Everyone always screams regression. They are always wrong with JC.

HATERS GONNA HATE


You used "always" twice, yet Cueto has been relevant for a mere two years. Only Sith speak in absolutes.

#18 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:09 PM

Please let this guys stock slip after his spring. I'm all in on draft day for him.
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#19 Stickfig13

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 05:39 PM


Everyone always screams regression. They are always wrong with JC.

HATERS GONNA HATE


You used "always" twice, yet Cueto has been relevant for a mere two years. Only Sith speak in absolutes.


He has been in the league for 5 years. The last 2 1/2 have been near Cy Young Worthy. FACT

#20 Tchaikovsky08

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:01 PM



Everyone always screams regression. They are always wrong with JC.

HATERS GONNA HATE


You used "always" twice, yet Cueto has been relevant for a mere two years. Only Sith speak in absolutes.


He has been in the league for 5 years. The last 2 1/2 have been near Cy Young Worthy. FACT


I didn't say he's been in the league for two years -- I said he's been relevant for two years. That is, unless you were rolling with him as a SP4 or SP5 in 2008-2010 during which he had a 4.29 cumulative ERA.

His career FIP is 4.03 and his career xFIP is 4.07. The latter is especially worrisome given he pitches half his games in GAB. Listen, I understand there are guys who consistently outperform their peripherals (Matt Cain being the prime example), but I am skeptical that Cueto will justify his lofty ADP.