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Mark Teixeira 2013 Outlookwhat is left?


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181 replies to this topic

#1 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:11 AM

talk about a guy no one is excited about ... teix will be 33 in April ... he had an injury plagued season in 2013. if it wasn't the wrist, it was the calf, and so on, and so on ...

still, in just 123 games, he gave us 84 Rbi and 24 HR, and is line drive rate was marginally highest he's put up over the past 3 seasons. that said, we saw a big spike in ground balls to 41.1% from 34.9% in the prior year, yet it's notable that in the heart of his prime in 2008 he had a 42.8% ground ball rate.

with power at a premium now throughout the league, i still think teix is a difference-maker in fantasy, despite the near certainty his average will be .250ish (his walk rate dipped in '12, but so did his k rate).

it's reasonable to think that with good health he has one more banner year left. bill james actually seems bullish, projecting 35 bombs.

ADP will be interesting. In a 12 team pitcher-heavy CBS analysts h2h mock i keep referencing, he went 46th overall, back of the 4th round (2 picks ahead of Allen Craig, 9 picks after Billy Butler, 46 picks ahead of Freddy Freeman).
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#2 BigPapi44

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 11:51 AM

Could he rebound?  Sure.  But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season.  Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

#3 malta69

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 12:15 PM

View PostBigPapi44, on 29 December 2012 - 11:51 AM, said:

Could he rebound?  Sure.  But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season.  Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

If the early adp is any indicator, he will be a tremendous value in 2013.  While I get the "upside" argument completely, I tend to think he still has plenty in the tank left, and 2012 was simply a lost year for Tex.  I've read different quotes from him during the fall that he had a fairy serious viral issue during the early half of the year which impacted him negatively, and then of course the injuries in the 2nd half derailed his year altogether.  While the BA will never be what it was in his Texas days, the power production had remained steady until last season.   I'm very curious to see what the auction value will be, but I can absolutely say that if he remains in that 40-50 adp outlier, he'll be on quite a few of my teams this season.
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#4 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 12:58 PM

View PostBigPapi44, on 29 December 2012 - 11:51 AM, said:

Could he rebound?  Sure.  But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season.  Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

The 30 HR potential is very real. If that doesn't count as "upside" I don't know what does.
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#5 cyberer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:22 PM

his OPS has declined for literally 5 straight seasons. He is a rock solid regular but he's not what people think he is anymore. There are almost certainly better options. His overall numbers look deceiving because he was worthless for huge stretches- but he seemed to pile on the red sox. Throw out those games and you pretty much have Eric Hosmer without the steals.

I won a title with him on my team last year, but he was nowhere near worth the 35 bucks I paid to land him. If he's in the 10 dollar range I'll look at him this year, but some idiot yankee homer in every league will overpay, so his ADP will not be indicative of the value you actually get for him.
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RB1 Lesean McCoy
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TE Jason Witten
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#6 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:48 PM

His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map.  Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons
vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP
vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09
vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP
vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

#7 calzonesays

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 02:42 PM

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 29 December 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map.  Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons
vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP
vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09
vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP
vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium.  Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is.  .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April.  You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

Edited by calzonesays, 29 December 2012 - 02:47 PM.


#8 BigPapi44

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:41 PM

View PostLyondellBasell, on 29 December 2012 - 12:58 PM, said:

View PostBigPapi44, on 29 December 2012 - 11:51 AM, said:

Could he rebound?  Sure.  But I don't think there's a lot of upside for a 33 yr old coming off an injury plagued season.  Personally, I won't touch him except if he fell so low that it made sense to take a flier. Let someone else be bullish.

The 30 HR potential is very real. If that doesn't count as "upside" I don't know what does.

So does Adam Laroche.  Big deal!

#9 ChrisFarley

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 09:09 PM

Short porch in Yankee stadium ruined Teixeira.  Great hitter before he became an all or nothing pull happy.  Boom goes the dynamite on that batting avg.

#10 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 05:22 AM

View Postcalzonesays, on 29 December 2012 - 02:42 PM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 29 December 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map.  Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons
vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP
vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09
vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP
vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium.  Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is.  .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April.  You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#11 klove42

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 08:10 AM

View Postjsp2014, on 31 December 2012 - 05:22 AM, said:

View Postcalzonesays, on 29 December 2012 - 02:42 PM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 29 December 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map.  Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons
vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP
vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09
vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP
vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium.  Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is.  .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April.  You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.

It really depends where other low avg/decent home run guys are going. Adam Dunn should probably be drafted above Tex this year especially in leagues that count BB/OBP.
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#12 Suikoden

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 08:46 AM

Avoiding like the plague this year.
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#13 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 12:41 PM

View Postklove42, on 31 December 2012 - 08:10 AM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 31 December 2012 - 05:22 AM, said:

View Postcalzonesays, on 29 December 2012 - 02:42 PM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 29 December 2012 - 01:48 PM, said:

His stats as a left-handed hitter have fallen off the map.  Might be cause of the shift, not sure...

At any rate, some numbers:

Last 3 seasons
vs RHP: .236/.333/.451; .240 BABIP
vs LHP: .283/.377/.550; .276 BABIP

3 seasons before that, 2007-09
vs RHP: .294/.388/.580; .304 BABIP
vs LHP: .319/.417/.516; .346 BABIP

6 point drop in OPS as a right-handed hitter, 184 point decline as a LHB

It's a combination of the shift and trying to pull every single pitch in Yankee Stadium.  Pre Yankee Stadium Tex was a monster who used all fields and really "couldn't" be shifted effectively.

Post Yankee Stadium version of Tex is a pull happy guy who hits into the teeth of the shift and will never hit for an average higher than .260

Factor those with a natural decline of course. Tex is what he is.  .255 / 30 HR / 100 RBI with injury risks and a terrible April.  You should know what you're signing up for when you draft him.

I agree with this... but everyone seems to be off the bandwagon so he might even be a value pick with that projected stat line.

It really depends where other low avg/decent home run guys are going. Adam Dunn should probably be drafted above Tex this year especially in leagues that count BB/OBP.


not in 5x5 though. hit .159 and .204 the last 2 years.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#14 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 12:42 PM

View PostSuikoden, on 31 December 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#15 LyondellBasell

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 31 December 2012 - 12:42 PM, said:

View PostSuikoden, on 31 December 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

yea, i mean of all the guys to 'avoid like the plague' ... hate has gone too far.
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#16 Suikoden

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 01:06 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 31 December 2012 - 12:42 PM, said:

View PostSuikoden, on 31 December 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

Jeters hurt
Arods hurt
Ibanez and Swisher are gone
Suzuki is done
Jones is in Japan I last heard

that leaves Cano, Granderson and Tex

pitchers could walk all 3 in a row and still get out of the inning because of how terrible NYYs lineup is

I'm avoiding everything Yankee this upcoming season
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#17 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 01:17 PM

View PostSuikoden, on 31 December 2012 - 01:06 PM, said:

View Postjsp2014, on 31 December 2012 - 12:42 PM, said:

View PostSuikoden, on 31 December 2012 - 08:46 AM, said:

Avoiding like the plague this year.

exactly my point. everyone seems to hate him.

Jeters hurt
Arods hurt
Ibanez and Swisher are gone
Suzuki is done
Jones is in Japan I last heard

that leaves Cano, Granderson and Tex

pitchers could walk all 3 in a row and still get out of the inning because of how terrible NYYs lineup is

I'm avoiding everything Yankee this upcoming season


they have work to do but Ichiro, Jeter, Cano, Grandy, Tex, Youk, Gardner (he should leadoff imo but won't) plus whomever they can sign cheaply to replace Swisher will score some runs in that bandbox and in the other hitters havens in the East.

Edited by jsp2014, 31 December 2012 - 01:17 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#18 Suikoden

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 01:43 PM

Which Ichiro shows up?
Jeter will miss time, how does he respond when he comes back?  The guys is grossly out of shape for a SS.
Cano and Grandy are studs.
Tex already said my piece on him.
Which Youk shows up?  Does he pull a Adam Dunn and becomes comeback player of the year?
Gardner I won't hold my breath on

Tides are turning IMO for the once almighty NYY (and I don't hate the Yankees, I even have their cap :o)
20 team keeper H2H (took over the team), standard Yahoo.  Keepers below.  NA's get put into NA slots (5 max)
C:  d'Arnaud 1B: Lind 2B: Miller SS: Forsythe 3B: Manny Machado OF: Stanton OF: Springer OF: Harper
Util: Salty Bench: Willingham, Suarez, Pena DL: Owings, Myers NA: Solarte Baez (NA)
SP: Strasburg SP: Price RP: Motte RP: Broxton P: Stroman, Storen, Tazawa, Petricka, Santiago, Kendrick DL:Pineda NA:Meyer
Trades: 1) Taijuan Walker and 5th rounder for Ryu and 4th rounder 2) Heyward, Hosmer, Bailey for Ellsbury 3) Abreu for Harper and Lind 6) Soria, Shelby Miller and round 6 pick for Strasburg and 7th rounder 7)  Ellsbury and 3rd rounder for Springer and 1st rounder 8) Francisco, Allen, 7th rounder for 5th rounder 9) Rosenthal and Ryu for Price

Money league Roto
C- Carlos Sant 1B) Abreu 2b) Altuve 3b) E5 SS) Rollins OF- McCutch, Jones, Harper Util- Gardner, Cron Bench: NA: Bryant SPs:  Strasburg, Verlander, Ventura, Hudson, Samardzija, Duffy, Cain, Lester, Walker, Stroman RPs:  Reed Doolittle Papelbon Trades: 1) Joey Bats and Panda for E5 and Werth 2) Morse for RA Dickey 3) Soria for Garza 4) Braun and Mesoraco for McCutch and McCann 5) Werth for Homer Bailey and Gardner 6) Cain for Kemp 7) Hill for Samardzija 8)  Melky, Hosmer, Sale for Strasberg and JUp 9) Garza and Miller for Verlander 10) Balfour for LaRoche 11) Bourn for Soriano 12) Kemp for Lester and Cain 13) JUp, LaRoche, Chisenballs for Adam Jones

#19 LyondellBasell

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 04:47 PM

sure the yankees will take a step back, but they play in yankee stadium. and how many lineups are there in MLB that have guys in them as good as teix, cano and granderson? not many. you can't draft all reds, blue jays and angels.
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Singleton
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Aoki, Bautista, Cespedes, Rajai
Utl/ Heyward
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman
RP/ Ross, Richards
, Stroman, Carrasco
BN/ Rios, Reynolds, Teixiera
DL/ Everth

Championships: 3 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#20 crazy47larry

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 08:33 AM

He was a player I really liked until he signed with the Empire. He was a throwback player who could dominate just as much with the glove as he did with the bat. He could pepper the ball to all fields and mash with the best of them. Then the Yankees massed up his swing and approach even though it was already great. A guy like Granderson who needed a serious rehaul it makes sense but Teixeira didn't need much work if any at all. Now he is just a pull happy player and his switch hitting ability has turned into more of a liability than strength. I still like to target him though but I am big on power guys and am more than willing to take the BA hit. If his value keeps dropping I will no doubt end up with him on a lot of my teams.