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Justin Ruggiano 2013 Outlook


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#1 cymbaline

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 01:12 PM

I'm not quite sure what to make of this guy.

In 91 games with the Fish, Ruggiano posted an impressive 38-13-36-14-.313 line. His triple slash was stellar at .313/.374/.535. However, his BABIP was a gaudy .401 and there's simply no way he'll repeat that. He probably benefited in the SB category by having Ozzie "I don't care if my guys get caught stealing" Guillen as his manager. There aren't a lot of managers who accept incredibly low SB success rates other than the well-deserved sh*t-canned Ozzie. So Ruggiano's SB totals might suffer under Redmond.

In all, Ruggiano seems to be a very interesting player for roto. He strikes out a lot but does take the walk when needed. His minor league numbers indicate consistent power-speed ability with four different AAA years of 10/20, including one of them where he went 20/20. The guy is already pretty old at 30 and going to be 31 early in 2013.

Thoughts on this mixed bag player?

#2 brockpapersizer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 02:20 PM

I had him last year and he really convinced me that he could be a solid OF3-4 and probably will be a huge sleeper this year since he's older for a new guy and probably doesnt have huge upside.
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#3 baltimore_boy

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 03:24 PM

Ruggiano can be a solid outfielder. I'm guessing that he isn't being drafted in many leagues, so he provides a great value. He finally got a fair chance at everyday AB's last year and responded with solid numbers. I can definitely see him putting up numbers similar to his stats from last year.
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#4 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:31 PM

Where will he be batting in that lineup? I assume you can say the top of the order will look something like...
1. Juan Pierre
2. Placido Polanco (I think he's on Miami?)
3. Stanton

From there, it could go Ruggiano, Morrison (if he isn't dealt by the start of the year, and I'm of the opinion he probably will be)... and after that everything falls completely off a cliff.
Rob Brantly at Catcher right now, then Donovan Solano and Adeiny Hechavarria at 2B and SS. And the pitcher.

That is dreadful. If Ruggiano can hit in 4 in the lineup, and someone half decent is batting behind him, that changes a lot. Otherwise, you're looking at a guy who is going to struggle mightily to score ANY runs unless he is driving himself in. Seriously, the back half of that lineup is just terrible. And if he winds up batting 5 and the 3 guys I mentioned above + the pitcher are expected to drive him in.... well, expect him to hurt you with Runs if you are in a 5x5.

I could see 20/15 with a .290 average or something useful like that and I do think he will go pretty cheap in auction drafts, maybe a dollar pick even. That's nice value if you can deal with him hurting you in the R category in 5x5.

I do think he will also go cheap or fly under the radar because he's on such a dreadful team and broke-out at age 30. The last player to just randomly break-out at 30 like that in a similar way (that I can think of, anyway) is Andres Torres. Anyone know how much he went for about the year after his nice season in CF with the Giants? (2010 I think is when he broke out around 29 or 30, with 2011 being the year after and when his price probably went up in drafts.)

Torres could be a nice indicator of what to expect. But it could mean nothing too.. I dunno.

Edited by Nick Mitchell, 29 December 2012 - 05:32 PM.

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#5 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:44 PM

Actually, I would temper my expectations on his average. 20/15 or even 15/20 with a .260-.265 BA seems much more realistic.

If he gets 600 AB, he could easily K 160 times. He has never walked a lot, but with all of the garbage batting behind him (if he winds up hitting 5 or even 4, given LoMo is no gold star either, or even a guarantee to be in the lineup when the season starts), maybe he'll see more bad pitches and learn to take more.

.260 or .265 with a .340 OBP seems doable if he can lay off of the junk pitchers are going to be throwing him, given who is batting behind him in that lineup (unless they do something like put him in front of Stanton, who is literally the only threat on that team).
If he can't lay off the junk, he may regress- a LOT.

I didn't think of it all like that, but the players cast around him and more so just behind wherever he'll sit in the order may wreck his season or help it, depending on how his approach at the plate shows up in 2013.
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#6 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:53 PM

I had him last year and he really convinced me that he could be a solid OF3-4 and probably will be a huge sleeper this year since he's older for a new guy and probably doesnt have huge upside.


My exact feelings. He was huge for me when I needed it most. The guy has always been a very good hitter at every level along the way. He was just blocked out of the bigs all those years by the hyped out OF in Tampa all those years (Upton, Crawford, Jennings/Joyce, etc.)

Ruggiano has a career OPS of .867 in the minors. At AAA over the past 2 years he OPSed .896 in 2011 and .990 in 2012.

Now I don't expect him to carry his .312 batting average over from last year at the major league level. As clearly his .401 BABIP should regress pretty hard to the mean. But he does have a .379 career BABIP in the minors and a career .355 BABIP in the majors. So he clearly is one of those high BABIP guys.

I also don't expect him to OPS over .900 throughout an entire season. But an .850 OPS is well within reach for the speedy slugger.

He should be 20+ in both HRs and SBs while carrying a respectable average. I'm thinking something like .285 22 HR and 28 SBs over a full season.

#7 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 06:24 PM

Actually, I would temper my expectations on his average. 20/15 or even 15/20 with a .260-.265 BA seems much more realistic.

If he gets 600 AB, he could easily K 160 times. He has never walked a lot, but with all of the garbage batting behind him (if he winds up hitting 5 or even 4, given LoMo is no gold star either, or even a guarantee to be in the lineup when the season starts), maybe he'll see more bad pitches and learn to take more.

.260 or .265 with a .340 OBP seems doable if he can lay off of the junk pitchers are going to be throwing him, given who is batting behind him in that lineup (unless they do something like put him in front of Stanton, who is literally the only threat on that team).
If he can't lay off the junk, he may regress- a LOT.


Why so pessimistic on Ruggiano's BA potential?

He hit .312 last year, yes high enough to be considered a touch flukey. But let's look at some under laying stats.

Ruggiano has a career MiLB batting average of .296, he hit .325 last year in AAA and .301 the year before in AAA.

Ruggiano over the last 2 years in the majors is hitting .295 (yes small sample only 393 ABs).

Yeah the guy K's a lot but he also makes a ton of solid contact. Any guesses to what his extra base hit rate was last year?.... 41.11%!

Just to put in perspective as to how good that really is. It was better than Miggy (40.98%), Adam Jones (39.87%), and Adrian Beltre (36.6%). Nearly as good as Cano (41.84%) and Braun (41.88%).

#8 cymbaline

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 07:33 PM

Thanks guys. Good discussion so far. His park and lineup don't really do him any favors. I reckon he'll be cheap enough that if he tanks nobody will really care (ie Andres Torres crapping out after his breakout year or Elijah Dukes on the sleeper list and then sucking).

The fact that Ruggiano outplayed CarGo over a 4 month stretch does point to a fairly high ceiling, even if that's the guy's maximum line. Even though nobody really expects him to repeat, he can still be plenty useful if he approaches the same level of play. Career wise, in just 483 AB's he clocked 17 HR's with 19 SB's. This obviously points to a potential 20/20 guy so regardless of what we project in the other categories, he should monitored.

If I can draft him as OF3, or better yet OF4, I'll be happy. I am not going to reach for the guy.

Edited by cymbaline, 29 December 2012 - 07:34 PM.


#9 brockpapersizer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 08:00 PM

No idea where he's going in mock drafts but just throwing out names. Tori Hunter? Think I rather have Ruggiano. Denard Span? Think I rather have Ruggiano too.
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#10 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 08:21 PM

Ashamed to say, i've actually never seen this guy play. I know nothing about him. But .403 BABIP in 2012 is pretty astronomical.

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#11 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:12 PM


I had him last year and he really convinced me that he could be a solid OF3-4 and probably will be a huge sleeper this year since he's older for a new guy and probably doesnt have huge upside.


My exact feelings. He was huge for me when I needed it most. The guy has always been a very good hitter at every level along the way. He was just blocked out of the bigs all those years by the hyped out OF in Tampa all those years (Upton, Crawford, Jennings/Joyce, etc.)

Ruggiano has a career OPS of .867 in the minors. At AAA over the past 2 years he OPSed .896 in 2011 and .990 in 2012.

Now I don't expect him to carry his .312 batting average over from last year at the major league level. As clearly his .401 BABIP should regress pretty hard to the mean. But he does have a .379 career BABIP in the minors and a career .355 BABIP in the majors. So he clearly is one of those high BABIP guys.

I also don't expect him to OPS over .900 throughout an entire season. But an .850 OPS is well within reach for the speedy slugger.

He should be 20+ in both HRs and SBs while carrying a respectable average. I'm thinking something like .285 22 HR and 28 SBs over a full season.



Actually, I would temper my expectations on his average. 20/15 or even 15/20 with a .260-.265 BA seems much more realistic.

If he gets 600 AB, he could easily K 160 times. He has never walked a lot, but with all of the garbage batting behind him (if he winds up hitting 5 or even 4, given LoMo is no gold star either, or even a guarantee to be in the lineup when the season starts), maybe he'll see more bad pitches and learn to take more.

.260 or .265 with a .340 OBP seems doable if he can lay off of the junk pitchers are going to be throwing him, given who is batting behind him in that lineup (unless they do something like put him in front of Stanton, who is literally the only threat on that team).
If he can't lay off the junk, he may regress- a LOT.


Why so pessimistic on Ruggiano's BA potential?

He hit .312 last year, yes high enough to be considered a touch flukey. But let's look at some under laying stats.

Ruggiano has a career MiLB batting average of .296, he hit .325 last year in AAA and .301 the year before in AAA.

Ruggiano over the last 2 years in the majors is hitting .295 (yes small sample only 393 ABs).

Yeah the guy K's a lot but he also makes a ton of solid contact. Any guesses to what his extra base hit rate was last year?.... 41.11%!

Just to put in perspective as to how good that really is. It was better than Miggy (40.98%), Adam Jones (39.87%), and Adrian Beltre (36.6%). Nearly as good as Cano (41.84%) and Braun (41.88%).



Why so pessimistic? Multiple reasons.

1. He isn't even locked into the CF role on paper, which says something. It has to.


Justin Ruggiano has the "inside edge" to return as the Marlins' starting center fielder.
Ruggiano was one of few bright spots for the Marlins last season, posting a .313/.374/.535 batting line, 13 home runs and 36 RBI in 91 games. Miami is also expected to give Chris Coghlan, Bryan Petersen, and Rule 5 pick Alfredo Silverio an extended look at center during spring training.

I'd expect him to land the spot, but where will he bat in that order and be able to sustain RBI production and score runs at the same time? It isn't happening.

But to answer your question about his BA and my pessimism?
In his best season at AAA, he still struck out 151 times. In two other good years at AAA he would strike out 147 times and 129 times, albeit having less PA and AB than in '07 in both of those seasons.

I view him as the type of guy who could wind up chasing junk because there will be NO ONE behind him in the order. He has always been a high strikeout player. Even if his extra base hit rate was high last year, that won't mean much if he starts chasing junk, and if I'm pitching to a guy like Ruggiano and looking at what's behind him in the order, I'm throwing him constant junk.

I think if he's smart, he could have a nice OBP this year, even if he doesn't score many runs. But let's be realistic: he's 30 and he's coming off of a breakout year. And he still isn't locked into the opening day job, even though if I'm betting he will start the year in the role. On most teams, he is your 4th OF- but this is the Marlins.

Keep that in mind too. If he was on most other teams, he wouldn't even be in consideration. He probably isn't as good as he seemed to be last years.

Players like Ruggiano, Brandon Moss, and similar types who put up somewhat flukey breakout seasons at older ages.... I would rather let someone pay $5+ or whatever unless I can get them for a $1-$3. They're just too risky to spend a lot of money on for me.

I just can't see Ruggiano scoring any runs in that lineup unless Stanton is hitting behind him to drive him in, or he's leading off- which would be the one scenario when he actually could hold very nice value. But Juan Pierre will lead-off to begin the year, I think that's a guarantee, and because it's the Marlins and he's Juan Pierre I think he'll stay in the lead off spot until he's dealt at the deadline or gets hurt or whatever happens to him happens. And I also see a lot of strikeouts if Ruggiano isn't patient.

His value is just odd to me because of his situation, the team, his age, how unpredictable his "sophomore" season will be (Andres Toress' wasn't very good if I remember correctly, and he was the same age and had that 20/20 potential everyone was oozing about going into 2011).
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#12 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:28 PM

Ashamed to say, i've actually never seen this guy play. I know nothing about him. But .403 BABIP in 2012 is pretty astronomical.


.401 last year was very high. But he will be one of those players to have a high BABIP. He can run fast and squares up and drives the ball well.

I bet his BABIP is somewhere around .350 next year.

#13 brockpapersizer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:29 PM



I had him last year and he really convinced me that he could be a solid OF3-4 and probably will be a huge sleeper this year since he's older for a new guy and probably doesnt have huge upside.


My exact feelings. He was huge for me when I needed it most. The guy has always been a very good hitter at every level along the way. He was just blocked out of the bigs all those years by the hyped out OF in Tampa all those years (Upton, Crawford, Jennings/Joyce, etc.)

Ruggiano has a career OPS of .867 in the minors. At AAA over the past 2 years he OPSed .896 in 2011 and .990 in 2012.

Now I don't expect him to carry his .312 batting average over from last year at the major league level. As clearly his .401 BABIP should regress pretty hard to the mean. But he does have a .379 career BABIP in the minors and a career .355 BABIP in the majors. So he clearly is one of those high BABIP guys.

I also don't expect him to OPS over .900 throughout an entire season. But an .850 OPS is well within reach for the speedy slugger.

He should be 20+ in both HRs and SBs while carrying a respectable average. I'm thinking something like .285 22 HR and 28 SBs over a full season.



Actually, I would temper my expectations on his average. 20/15 or even 15/20 with a .260-.265 BA seems much more realistic.

If he gets 600 AB, he could easily K 160 times. He has never walked a lot, but with all of the garbage batting behind him (if he winds up hitting 5 or even 4, given LoMo is no gold star either, or even a guarantee to be in the lineup when the season starts), maybe he'll see more bad pitches and learn to take more.

.260 or .265 with a .340 OBP seems doable if he can lay off of the junk pitchers are going to be throwing him, given who is batting behind him in that lineup (unless they do something like put him in front of Stanton, who is literally the only threat on that team).
If he can't lay off the junk, he may regress- a LOT.


Why so pessimistic on Ruggiano's BA potential?

He hit .312 last year, yes high enough to be considered a touch flukey. But let's look at some under laying stats.

Ruggiano has a career MiLB batting average of .296, he hit .325 last year in AAA and .301 the year before in AAA.

Ruggiano over the last 2 years in the majors is hitting .295 (yes small sample only 393 ABs).

Yeah the guy K's a lot but he also makes a ton of solid contact. Any guesses to what his extra base hit rate was last year?.... 41.11%!

Just to put in perspective as to how good that really is. It was better than Miggy (40.98%), Adam Jones (39.87%), and Adrian Beltre (36.6%). Nearly as good as Cano (41.84%) and Braun (41.88%).



Why so pessimistic? Multiple reasons.

1. He isn't even locked into the CF role on paper, which says something. It has to.


Justin Ruggiano has the "inside edge" to return as the Marlins' starting center fielder.
Ruggiano was one of few bright spots for the Marlins last season, posting a .313/.374/.535 batting line, 13 home runs and 36 RBI in 91 games. Miami is also expected to give Chris Coghlan, Bryan Petersen, and Rule 5 pick Alfredo Silverio an extended look at center during spring training.


.



Trust me, he's locked in.
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#14 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:32 PM

1. He isn't even locked into the CF role on paper, which says something. It has to.

You think Silverio a guy who hasn't done anything past AA is going to beat out Ruggiano? HIghly unlikely.

I'd expect him to land the spot, but where will he bat in that order and be able to sustain RBI production and score runs at the same time? It isn't happening.


Well he had a majority of his ABs in the 2 and 5 hole. So I'd image either 2, 4, or 5.

#15 brockpapersizer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:46 PM

In all seriousness he is probably hands down the best hitter in the entire lineup besides Stanton and people think there's a chance he might not have playing time? Really?




The only other player that even competes for 2nd best hitter is Logan Morrison (who hit .230 last year).

I think there's an argument to be made that his runs and rbis will be down because of the horrible lineup he's in, but at the same time he probably wouldnt be hitting in a prime spot in a decent-good lineup.

LOCKED IN

Have people looked at this depth chart. AWFUL

http://www.cbssports...A/miami-marlins

Edited by brockpapersizer, 29 December 2012 - 10:48 PM.

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#16 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 02:47 AM

Yes. It's very awful. Which is why I have no interest in a guy who strikes out 150 times in a full season in AAA at age 27 or so. If they pitch him right, he'll k 170 times.

I don't feel like defending my argument into the ground. A guy on a team like the Marlins like Ruggiano is not going to be a huge fantasy factor unless he leads off or hits right in front of Stanton. And even then, Stanton should just be intentionally walked every time up. Why even bother.

Their lineup is putrid and he may hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases, but there will be empty stats in every other category, mark my word. And his BA will dip naturally- how much will depend on how pitchers pitch to him and how he can handle it. Will he strike out like he did in the minors? If he does, he won't hit anything close to his clip from last year or even his minor league stats (which, by the way, are with minor league pitchers and he produced his best years after age 25- he's the typical quad-A player, I hate to say it, but he is unless he proves me otherwise in 2013, and even Russell Branyan was able to string together two good years at one point in his career...).

If he can learn to take a walk, he could be a nice play in OBP leagues, because if he shows he can make solid contact he would be a guy to pitch around in that lineup (besides Stanton- the one thing I do agree with you on). But if he swings at the garbage I think most pitchers will be throwing him, well... we'll just see I guess.
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#17 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 01:24 PM

Yes. It's very awful. Which is why I have no interest in a guy who strikes out 150 times in a full season in AAA at age 27 or so. If they pitch him right, he'll k 170 times.

I don't feel like defending my argument into the ground. A guy on a team like the Marlins like Ruggiano is not going to be a huge fantasy factor unless he leads off or hits right in front of Stanton. And even then, Stanton should just be intentionally walked every time up. Why even bother.

Their lineup is putrid and he may hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases, but there will be empty stats in every other category, mark my word. And his BA will dip naturally- how much will depend on how pitchers pitch to him and how he can handle it. Will he strike out like he did in the minors? If he does, he won't hit anything close to his clip from last year or even his minor league stats (which, by the way, are with minor league pitchers and he produced his best years after age 25- he's the typical quad-A player, I hate to say it, but he is unless he proves me otherwise in 2013, and even Russell Branyan was able to string together two good years at one point in his career...).

If he can learn to take a walk, he could be a nice play in OBP leagues, because if he shows he can make solid contact he would be a guy to pitch around in that lineup (besides Stanton- the one thing I do agree with you on). But if he swings at the garbage I think most pitchers will be throwing him, well... we'll just see I guess.



here is a fun fact: the #3 hitters on the Astros last year had a .688 OPS and still drove in 85 runs.

hitting in the heart of a horrific lineup can actually lead to a healthy amount of R/RBI, at least compared to hitting 7th on a decent lineup.

if he looks like he's starting the year hitting 3rd, then there is some tangible upside. something like .260 with 22 HR, 15 SB, 75 RBI, 75 R wouldn't be out of the question.

Edited by jsp2014, 31 December 2012 - 01:27 PM.

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#18 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 11:22 PM


Yes. It's very awful. Which is why I have no interest in a guy who strikes out 150 times in a full season in AAA at age 27 or so. If they pitch him right, he'll k 170 times.

I don't feel like defending my argument into the ground. A guy on a team like the Marlins like Ruggiano is not going to be a huge fantasy factor unless he leads off or hits right in front of Stanton. And even then, Stanton should just be intentionally walked every time up. Why even bother.

Their lineup is putrid and he may hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases, but there will be empty stats in every other category, mark my word. And his BA will dip naturally- how much will depend on how pitchers pitch to him and how he can handle it. Will he strike out like he did in the minors? If he does, he won't hit anything close to his clip from last year or even his minor league stats (which, by the way, are with minor league pitchers and he produced his best years after age 25- he's the typical quad-A player, I hate to say it, but he is unless he proves me otherwise in 2013, and even Russell Branyan was able to string together two good years at one point in his career...).

If he can learn to take a walk, he could be a nice play in OBP leagues, because if he shows he can make solid contact he would be a guy to pitch around in that lineup (besides Stanton- the one thing I do agree with you on). But if he swings at the garbage I think most pitchers will be throwing him, well... we'll just see I guess.



here is a fun fact: the #3 hitters on the Astros last year had a .688 OPS and still drove in 85 runs.

hitting in the heart of a horrific lineup can actually lead to a healthy amount of R/RBI, at least compared to hitting 7th on a decent lineup.

if he looks like he's starting the year hitting 3rd, then there is some tangible upside. something like .260 with 22 HR, 15 SB, 75 RBI, 75 R wouldn't be out of the question.


Well, then that is worth a 1-3$ pick probably. But I don't know if I would go beyond that. Maybe up to $5 because of his speed, but I would hope that he would just fall and I could get him as cheap as possible if I were to target a player like this. I just cannot imagine wanting to own a single Marlins player besides Stanton, and even him.

Another thing to remember is the Astros team leader in RBI last year was J.D. Martinez (I think- correct me if I am wrong), and he sent down to AAA for at least one somewhat lengthy stint. All I'm saying by that is I wouldn't necessarily glean much from the Astros' situation last year, because it was just an all-around 100% mess, and it's only going to be worse this year.... hitting in that spot may have just been a timely/flukey sort of thing. I can't think of many other lineups in recent years as bad as the Astros' was at points last season.

Like I said in a different thread.. if the Marlins aren't already a good bet for 100 losses, the Astros should be pegged for 110-120 easily. The futility record could very well belong to them at the end of 2013. It's going to be ugly, Houston fans. Really ugly.
Maybe Berkman can DH and Oswalt can sign with the team in June because they need a gate attraction. Then Clemens can come out of retirement in September. And they can still lose 115 games, but it would be amusing this way. Maybe Pudge can even latch on once Castro goes down with another knee injury. No? Come on! It would be like old times!
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#19 FouLLine

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 01:48 PM



Yes. It's very awful. Which is why I have no interest in a guy who strikes out 150 times in a full season in AAA at age 27 or so. If they pitch him right, he'll k 170 times.

I don't feel like defending my argument into the ground. A guy on a team like the Marlins like Ruggiano is not going to be a huge fantasy factor unless he leads off or hits right in front of Stanton. And even then, Stanton should just be intentionally walked every time up. Why even bother.

Their lineup is putrid and he may hit 20 HR and steal 20 bases, but there will be empty stats in every other category, mark my word. And his BA will dip naturally- how much will depend on how pitchers pitch to him and how he can handle it. Will he strike out like he did in the minors? If he does, he won't hit anything close to his clip from last year or even his minor league stats (which, by the way, are with minor league pitchers and he produced his best years after age 25- he's the typical quad-A player, I hate to say it, but he is unless he proves me otherwise in 2013, and even Russell Branyan was able to string together two good years at one point in his career...).

If he can learn to take a walk, he could be a nice play in OBP leagues, because if he shows he can make solid contact he would be a guy to pitch around in that lineup (besides Stanton- the one thing I do agree with you on). But if he swings at the garbage I think most pitchers will be throwing him, well... we'll just see I guess.



here is a fun fact: the #3 hitters on the Astros last year had a .688 OPS and still drove in 85 runs.

hitting in the heart of a horrific lineup can actually lead to a healthy amount of R/RBI, at least compared to hitting 7th on a decent lineup.

if he looks like he's starting the year hitting 3rd, then there is some tangible upside. something like .260 with 22 HR, 15 SB, 75 RBI, 75 R wouldn't be out of the question.


Well, then that is worth a 1-3$ pick probably. But I don't know if I would go beyond that. Maybe up to $5 because of his speed, but I would hope that he would just fall and I could get him as cheap as possible if I were to target a player like this. I just cannot imagine wanting to own a single Marlins player besides Stanton, and even him.

Another thing to remember is the Astros team leader in RBI last year was J.D. Martinez (I think- correct me if I am wrong), and he sent down to AAA for at least one somewhat lengthy stint. All I'm saying by that is I wouldn't necessarily glean much from the Astros' situation last year, because it was just an all-around 100% mess, and it's only going to be worse this year.... hitting in that spot may have just been a timely/flukey sort of thing. I can't think of many other lineups in recent years as bad as the Astros' was at points last season.

Like I said in a different thread.. if the Marlins aren't already a good bet for 100 losses, the Astros should be pegged for 110-120 easily. The futility record could very well belong to them at the end of 2013. It's going to be ugly, Houston fans. Really ugly.
Maybe Berkman can DH and Oswalt can sign with the team in June because they need a gate attraction. Then Clemens can come out of retirement in September. And they can still lose 115 games, but it would be amusing this way. Maybe Pudge can even latch on once Castro goes down with another knee injury. No? Come on! It would be like old times!


No matter how bad a team is they would never be pegged for 110 losses "easily". Let alone 120.

If you really feel that they will lose 110 games, go find someone in Vegas to take that bet as you would get more than fair odds. Cause I'm telling you even money would be on them to maybe lose 95 - 105 games at the most.

#20 Dissection

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 02:00 PM

Astros will find themselves in all kinds of troubles next year.I think they'll lose 100-110 games.Last year their final score was 55-107.Some young players will progress as the time goes by but AL West is loaded with talent.They're in total rebuild mode so the number of loses in next season won't the most important thing.They need to develop young players,draft wisely and invest in their future.They'll probably have 3 1st picks in row and the key is picking the star in the draft.It's easier said than done but that's all they have right now.