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Erasmo Ramirez 2013 Outlook


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#1 sportsfreak2744

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 02:33 PM

Rarely talked about but posted solid numbers last year in 59 innings.

59.0 IP,  47 H,  12 BB,  48 K, 3.36 ERA, 1.00 WHIP


He's got a good fastball around 94 mph, a decent slider at 85, and a his best pitch a changeup at 82.  

I don't understand why this guy isn't talked about more.  I think he can be a really solid pitcher that puts up good numbers and ratios across the board.

Thoughts?

#2 cymbaline

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 04:42 PM

I guess most people who know about him don't expect a repeat of 2012.

Negatives:
-  He was very hittable in AAA, generally posting BABIP's north of .300 and absurdly low LOB%'s.
-  His MLB BABIP in 2012 was .243.  For a guy that was so hittable in the minors, this figures to increase significantly - perhaps to the point where he gets demoted to the pen or AAA.
-  Mediocre K rate.
-  Tough division.  A's, TEX, LAA expected to be contenders.
-  Seattle Mariners.  No other explanation needed.


Positives:
-  Impressive in debut season and young enough that he can still improve
-  Exceptionally low BB/9
-  Pitches in the right home park

#3 baltimore_boy

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:26 PM

Ramirez is a decent player, but since he plays in Seattle, not many people know about him. He definitely worth a flyer at the end of drafts.He's a quiet sleeper for this year. He could really surprise people this year with Safeco behind him.
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#4 FouLLine

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 01:25 PM

I was surprised at how well his game transitioned to the majors.

Honestly I would be prepared for regression this year.  For a few reasons.

- Been through the league now, tape is out.
- A .243 BABIP will hardly be sustainable.
- Will probably get shelled every time he pitches @LAA or @TEX.
- In The Venesualain Winter League he had a .310 BAA.

#5 baltimore_boy

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 06:06 PM

View PostFouLLine, on 30 December 2012 - 01:25 PM, said:

I was surprised at how well his game transitioned to the majors.

Honestly I would be prepared for regression this year.  For a few reasons.

- Been through the league now, tape is out.
- A .243 BABIP will hardly be sustainable.
- Will probably get shelled every time he pitches @LAA or @TEX.
- In The Venesualain Winter League he had a .310 BAA.

He may regress in real life, but he shouldn't for fantasy terms. Yes, he won't pitch good against LAA or TEX, but there isn't a person playing fantasy that would start him for those games. He may end up with around a 4.1 ERA in real life, but could put up a number closer to 3 for your team if you play him right. He's a higher quality streamer that you don't let go of. You just sit him down for those tough matchups that he will have throughout the year.
Bring back Ray!

#6 klove42

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 11:31 AM

I love these forums because of the analysis that goes into every player, like Erasmo here. He could be a solid sleeper for next year, but like Baltimore_boy said it really depends on if you use him right.
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#7 Hubble521

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 09:43 PM

Had some solid spring training numbers coming into today (I know it means little) with 6 scoreless innings.  What kind of numbers are we expecting?

3.75 ERA 1.25 WHIP?

#8 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:49 PM

Pitching for Seattle is a good thing.

Seriously guys, pitching in the AL East is not desirable, nor is pitching for Seattle in Safeco? What gives!?! ;)

#9 elrey

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 11:24 PM

View PostHubble521, on 11 March 2013 - 09:43 PM, said:

Had some solid spring training numbers coming into today (I know it means little) with 6 scoreless innings.  What kind of numbers are we expecting?

3.75 ERA 1.25 WHIP?

I expect a WHIP lower than that. His walk rates tin the minors and majors have been awesome.

#10 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:22 PM

I have a very strong feeling that this guy pitches like a #3 all year long. I'm hoping to steal him in my AL-only for a low price. His change-up and slider both graded out as plus pitches last year, and his fastball averaged nearly 93 mph. He was essentially a 3 pitch pitcher, but when those 3 pitches all rate from above-average to very good, it doesn't really matter. I would imagine he tries to develop that curveball, or another pitch this year though. Oh and he weclomes the Astros to his division this year. Yes, please. One thing to note, his swinging strike rate was 11.3%. That is super elite for a starter. If he comes anywhere close to that, his k/9 should get to 8+ with ease.

#11 baltimore_boy

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:30 PM

View PostHubble521, on 11 March 2013 - 09:43 PM, said:

Had some solid spring training numbers coming into today (I know it means little) with 6 scoreless innings.  What kind of numbers are we expecting?

3.75 ERA 1.25 WHIP?

And even better for fantasy teams. His overall ERA will probably range somewhere from 3.75 to 4+ because he will have matchups @LAA and @Tex that will more than likely put some runs on him. If you sit him for those starts, then his ERA for your team can be around 3.25 - 3.5. Any Seattle or Oakland pitcher is worth owning. Just play the right matchups.
Bring back Ray!

#12 cyberer

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 02:34 PM

Looks like Doug Fister to me (not necessarily in a bad way).
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#13 bigge2win

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 11:56 AM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 30 December 2012 - 06:06 PM, said:

View PostFouLLine, on 30 December 2012 - 01:25 PM, said:

I was surprised at how well his game transitioned to the majors.

Honestly I would be prepared for regression this year.  For a few reasons.

- Been through the league now, tape is out.
- A .243 BABIP will hardly be sustainable.
- Will probably get shelled every time he pitches @LAA or @TEX.
- In The Venesualain Winter League he had a .310 BAA.

He may regress in real life, but he shouldn't for fantasy terms. Yes, he won't pitch good against LAA or TEX, but there isn't a person playing fantasy that would start him for those games. He may end up with around a 4.1 ERA in real life, but could put up a number closer to 3 for your team if you play him right. He's a higher quality streamer that you don't let go of. You just sit him down for those tough matchups that he will have throughout the year.

He also did have only a LOB% of 67%, which seems low to me. If that and his BABIP move towards the mean, his ERA will slightly go up. Successful pitchers, like Matt Cain and Jered Weaver, have been able to sustain a low BABIP with a high LOB%. Low BABIP and low LOB% have always given Ricky Nolasco higher ERAs than his SIERA and FIPs. Hopefully, Erasmo can be at least something in between those 2 groups. He does have good speed difference between his fastball and change. A higher LOB% will cure a lot of doubts. But if he can't pitch out of the stretch, he'll be no more than a mediocre pitcher.

#14 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 12:10 PM

You guys act like he had a .220 BABIP and 1.35 WHIP.  His WHIP as a starter was 0.96, of course the BABIP is going to regress hard.

#15 Damn Yankee

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Posted 13 March 2013 - 12:30 PM

I picked him up for a buck late in my last draft and believe in him.  Everyone questioned my calling his name like I was nuts...and considering the quality of the owners in that league (solid for sure), it seems he is WAY below everyone's radar.

Interesting intrasquad performance yesterday...3 runs over 5 innings (10 hits), 7K, 0 W.

I think Baltimore_boy has it nailed...matchups will be the key with this guy.  I'm looking forward to see how this plays out.
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#16 W74

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 11:21 AM

Quote

The Seattle Times' Geoff Baker projects Jon Garland and Blake Beavan to grab the final two spots in the Mariners' rotation.
That would mean Erasmo Ramirez would begin the season at Triple-A Tacoma. Beavan's inclusion is not a surprise, but Garland's is, as most figured he would just be around as organizational depth after missing most of the last two years with shoulder woes. Baker notes that Garland chose to sign with the M's over the Indians, and he thinks manager Eric Wedge probably assured him a spot on the staff as long as he was healthy and effective, which he has been with a 1.50 ERA over three starts. There's a chance Garland could slide into a long relief role and leave a rotation spot for Ramirez, who obviously has way more upside and is unscored upon this spring. Ramirez could also wind up beating up Beavan for a spot.

Doesn't help Ramirez's appeal in mixed leagues.

#17 Chubbles

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 11:41 AM

That stinks, I wonder why they wouldn't just go with the younger arm with upside, it's not like they are gonna do much this year
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#18 ballfan4141

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 11:48 AM

this might be good because I can drop him and have a streaming spot.

#19 klove42

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 12:06 PM

This is just a reporter projecting this though. I would wait to hear more from the management before I really think Ramirez wouldnt get a spot. This team believes they can contend by signing Felix and Morales and trading for Morse. I really don't see why they would start Beavlen over Ramirez.
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#20 Cmilne23

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 12:10 PM

As a Mariner fan I am prepared to go apes*** if they start Blake "boring a**, I'd rather watch paint dry, 2.8 K per 9 IP" Beavan over Erasmo Ramirez who is muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuch more talented.




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