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Dustin Ackley 2013 Outlook#13


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#1 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 05:50 PM

I never owned this guy, but I've always gathered there's been very little to see here ... first i'd heard he'll be a better real life player than a fantasy player... and the i'd heard he just disappointed an organization that has no offense to speak of, and was a candidate for getting demoted to the minors.

looks like he may have suffered from some bad babip last year. babip came in at .265 over the full 2012 season (670 abs), whereas his babip as a rookie (333 abs) was .339. So which is the real barometer? For a speedy lefty who gets outta the box quick, i might assume the .339 was closer to the norm. his babpi over 1.5 minor league seasons was also over .300.

the guy didn't run much, only 13 steals, and he K'd a lot more than i expected, 124 times, an 18.6% k rate. his 8.8% walk rate is poor for a top of the order guy with no power.

there's really not a lot to like, so you could see him going very late. as a late round guy, he could provide a nice return if the babip normalizes and his k-rate improves (it did in the second half: http://bit.ly/OW22xM ).
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#2 cyberer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 07:08 PM

Yeah for a speed-ish guy the BABIP is borderline crazy low. Walk rate should be at or above 10%, should be good for double digit power- just not a ton of upside in any one category.
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#3 imnottheonly

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 08:25 PM

At the moment I am starting him in a 12-team dynasty league (Fail). Despite the average I actually liked what I saw from him last year. IF he can pull up his BABIP and maybe hit in the .270-.280 range you could get 18-20HR with Safeco moving the fences in and a 12-15 steals. If they leave him in the leadoff spot which I imagine they will give him first crack at it, because lets be honest who else is going to be the leadoff man on that team, he could net 80+runs as well. Thats alot to break right but the potential is there for him to be a middle of the road 2B and if his plate discipline ever starts to show at the level it was supposed to be coming out of college he has some good long term upside.
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#4 myzto

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 11:53 AM

As a broken down Mariner fan.. nothing to see here with Ackley.  Maybe the environment explains it, but he doesn't have the same bat as he did in college.  He seems content with 1 for 4 and a KO.  Now his defense is impressive and with all that attention it initially drew (if he could play 2B or not) maybe t hat affected his batting mindset.  If that's not the case, then there's nothing to see here; you'll find better options.

#5 klove42

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:34 PM

I haven't seen this guys ADP yet, but I think he will be better then last year. At 2B I dont think a 15 HR and 15 SB season is out of the question. Like previous posters mentioned I think his luck will improve, his BABIP will rise, and he will hit at least .250 I know his ceiling is a lot lower then people thought, but if you can get a 15 15 2B late in the draft thats not bad at all.
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#6 Travis Burten

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:43 PM

Is it crazy that I think he'll be a top 10 2B this year posting Dustin Pedroia-lite numbers?

#7 Cmilne23

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:44 PM

He will always be a better real life player than in fantasy.  He does not have many dimensions to his game.  He is like a Skip Schumaker with more speed.  His average and OBP will probably be pretty solid on a year to year basis but he won't put up many HR's, RBI's or steal a ton of bases.  He is just kind of a blah player.

#8 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:47 PM

Told everyone he was a bum and completely overrated last year (and he wasn't even rated that high).  Still not a fan, but with an improved lineup behind him and fences moving in, he's got a decent chance to be a solid value pick this year.

#9 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

#10 klove42

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Edited by klove42, 31 January 2013 - 01:03 PM.

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#11 jb_power

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:05 PM

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 12:43 PM, said:

Is it crazy that I think he'll be a top 10 2B this year posting Dustin Pedroia-lite numbers?


Yep, that is crazy!

#12 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

#13 Cmilne23

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:10 PM

He played on a bum ankle all year last year.  He had to have surgery after the season.  Mariner fans seem to be using that as a pass for him last year.  It probably contributed somewhat.  But I never thought he would be much of a fantasy player.  I have told my friends who are big time Mariner homers to temper there expectations for him.  I think he will end up being a solid major leaguer, but not one that will help us in fantasy. Which is why we are all here.

#14 Travis Burten

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

#15 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 02:13 PM

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

I'm not sure how they calculate it. Baseball HQ has him at 80%.

#16 klove42

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 02:29 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

I'm not sure how they calculate it. Baseball HQ has him at 80%.

I usually go by baseball hq as well which is (ab-k)/ab
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#17 Travis Burten

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 02:48 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

I'm not sure how they calculate it. Baseball HQ has him at 80%.

Their description is "Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches". This seems to be a much more accurate depiction of real contact rate. Baseball HQ doesn't really tell you how much a player makes contact...it just tells you how many times a player doesn't strikeout per AB. Pretty useless considering I can just check K%.

#18 klove42

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 04:26 PM

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 02:48 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

I'm not sure how they calculate it. Baseball HQ has him at 80%.

Their description is "Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches". This seems to be a much more accurate depiction of real contact rate. Baseball HQ doesn't really tell you how much a player makes contact...it just tells you how many times a player doesn't strikeout per AB. Pretty useless considering I can just check K%.

But does that also include foul balls? Because then those aren't neccesary either.
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#19 Travis Burten

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 05:08 PM

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 02:48 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 02:13 PM, said:

View PostTravis Burten, on 31 January 2013 - 01:46 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 01:08 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 31 January 2013 - 01:00 PM, said:

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

What is his contact rate? I can't find it on Fangraphs but I think my brain has shut down for the day.

Edit: NVM I calculated it. An 80% contact right isnt terrible but its obviously not ideal for someone without pop

Yeah 80% its not bad in general, but I associate someone with Ackley's profile to be in the 85+ range. He did improve as the year went on (77-82, 1stH/2ndH)  but it appears he traded striking out for making weak contact thus the poor BABIP.

According to FanGraphs, Ackley's contact % was 86%.

I'm not sure how they calculate it. Baseball HQ has him at 80%.

Their description is "Total percentage of contact made when swinging at all pitches". This seems to be a much more accurate depiction of real contact rate. Baseball HQ doesn't really tell you how much a player makes contact...it just tells you how many times a player doesn't strikeout per AB. Pretty useless considering I can just check K%.

But does that also include foul balls? Because then those aren't neccesary either.
I'm not sure. I checked Baseball Reference and here's the breakdown.

For Ackley, 10% of his strikes were swinging, 25% were fouled, 36% were looking, and 29% were put into play.

So I basically did the calculation and it comes to 6.1% SwingingStrk%. There's no way he hits under .250 with all those peripherals pointing otherwise.

#20 Slatykamora

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 05:40 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 31 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

His contact rate for how little power he has is pretty appalling.  I don't even think he's worthy of a roster spot in a 12 team mixer.

Depends on the setting... If you have a league that requires a MI spot also. Id say yes he could be an option.  Even though he hit .226 for a horrible M's offense. He still scored 84 runs. Assuming with those contact rates, he gets a respectable BA. Its not hard to imagine 100 Runs.. And if we even expect only a 15 hr 15 sb kinda season. Should take note only 11 2B hits 15 Home runs, and only 12 2b had over 15 SBs last year..

RBIs will be the only negative...his 50 RBIs still put him in the top 20 for 2B.. and if he ups it by 10..it will put him around 14-15 for 2B...

You don't want him as your starting 2B for sure...but you could do worse for a MI option towards the end of a draft.




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