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Jason Hammel 2013 OutlookO's ace


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#1 baltimore_boy

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 06:25 PM

Hammel really surprised a bunch of people last year in his first year with the Orioles. He looked like a different pitcher outside of Coors and his year would have been better if he hadn't have gotten injured. What's the thought in him for this year? Will he show last year wasn't a fluke and be a solid pitcher again this year? Or will he revert back to the mediocre pitcher from Colorado?
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#2 Jmadtown

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 10:38 PM

I think he'll continue what he started last year. He was fun to watch and I'll be looking for him come draft day.
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Edited by Jmadtown, 31 December 2012 - 10:38 PM.

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#3 PRoSPx

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:53 AM

View PostJmadtown, on 31 December 2012 - 10:38 PM, said:

I think he'll continue what he started last year. He was fun to watch and I'll be looking for him come draft day.
Oh, post 1000. SWEET

Hammel is under rated.  Not a guy I'll be "targeting" so to say.  But I'm sure he is so forgotten about that he'll be around with your last couple of draft picks.

#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:32 AM

Nobody posted about this guy for a while. Got him as my SP5 in a 12 teamer and love it. Fell under the radar a bit. Think he has a really good year. 3.5 ERA 13 Wins and 160 Ks 1.20 whip
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#5 cymbaline

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 12:48 AM

I didn't believe it for a moment that he was for real last year and that was a mistake.

Big change in pitch offerings from his COL days:
Two seamer up from 13.1% to 34.5%.
Four seamer down from 47.4% to 27.5%
Uptick in slider, decrease in changeup.

Results were impressive.  Nice jump in SwStr% and decrease in contact.

I'm in, at least until he proves he's the sucky guy we saw with the Rockies.

#6 baltimore_boy

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:28 AM

View Postcymbaline, on 31 March 2013 - 12:48 AM, said:

I didn't believe it for a moment that he was for real last year and that was a mistake.

Big change in pitch offerings from his COL days:
Two seamer up from 13.1% to 34.5%.
Four seamer down from 47.4% to 27.5%
Uptick in slider, decrease in changeup.

Results were impressive.  Nice jump in SwStr% and decrease in contact.

I'm in, at least until he proves he's the sucky guy we saw with the Rockies.

It's not like Hammel hasn't always been good though. If I remember correctly he was a big prospect, but just got lost with the rest of Tampa's pitchers and never got a chance. Colorado makes any pitcher look bad, whether they are or not, so there can't be too much stock put into those years.
Bring back Ray!

#7 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 09:48 AM

Tampa is awful offensively. Jennings, Zobrist, and Longoria are the only ones that can "hurt" him. Riding him this first week isn't really that much of a risk considering he draws MIN after the Rays.

#8 y2jbones

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 11:12 AM

I grabbed him with the last pick in my draft.  Hopefully he continues to pitch well this year and maybe even improves.

#9 Sine_cera

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 11:20 AM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 31 March 2013 - 09:28 AM, said:

View Postcymbaline, on 31 March 2013 - 12:48 AM, said:

I didn't believe it for a moment that he was for real last year and that was a mistake.

Big change in pitch offerings from his COL days:
Two seamer up from 13.1% to 34.5%.
Four seamer down from 47.4% to 27.5%
Uptick in slider, decrease in changeup.

Results were impressive.  Nice jump in SwStr% and decrease in contact.

I'm in, at least until he proves he's the sucky guy we saw with the Rockies.

It's not like Hammel hasn't always been good though. If I remember correctly he was a big prospect, but just got lost with the rest of Tampa's pitchers and never got a chance. Colorado makes any pitcher look bad, whether they are or not, so there can't be too much stock put into those years.
He was already a decent pitcher in Colorado. His first 2 seasons as a starter he had a FIP and xFIP well below 4 which is pretty good considering he pitched at Coors. But his BABIP was always crazy high so it made his ERA look bad.

So the talent has always been there. Let's hope he can maintain that high K% and SwStr%.
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#10 The Czar

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Posted 31 March 2013 - 11:55 AM

I ended up with this guy on a ton of teams.  He was pretty much free in drafts this year and slots in as a potentially great #5/6 option in mixed leagues.

What drew me to him is that his numbers are very much legitimate.

Not only did he display an elite GB% last year due to a new power sinker, but also saw a dramatic increase in K%.  When looking for gems, I like to look for guys with high K/9 rates and high GB% rates.  He fits the profile very well.

He had no luck factors that stand out and was pretty much league average in BABIP, HR/FB%, and strand rate. His FIP was 3.29 and the xFip was 3.46, suggesting that his numbers were right where they should have been.

I didn't post on him in here as a target because I'm doing so many drafts now with RW users.  Guys like him I like to keep under wraps until after the draft.
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#11 mjb03003

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 03:14 PM

View PostThe Czar, on 31 March 2013 - 11:55 AM, said:

I ended up with this guy on a ton of teams.  He was pretty much free in drafts this year and slots in as a potentially great #5/6 option in mixed leagues.

What drew me to him is that his numbers are very much legitimate.

Not only did he display an elite GB% last year due to a new power sinker, but also saw a dramatic increase in K%.  When looking for gems, I like to look for guys with high K/9 rates and high GB% rates.  He fits the profile very well.

He had no luck factors that stand out and was pretty much league average in BABIP, HR/FB%, and strand rate. His FIP was 3.29 and the xFip was 3.46, suggesting that his numbers were right where they should have been.

I didn't post on him in here as a target because I'm doing so many drafts now with RW users.  Guys like him I like to keep under wraps until after the draft.

After reading this thread, I picked up Hammel in my home league once Garza was officially placed on the DL. Thanks to the many quality posters in this thread who put his name back on my radar this spring.

#12 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 06:21 PM

Got this guy in almost all my leagues. I think he's a pick up in almost every league. I'd even have him in 10 team leagues if you have a weak staff.

Even though it looks like he had a whatever outing, dude only had 4 base runners in 6 innings.  He had a full count on Zobrist with Longoria on deck and he threw something in the strike zone. I wasnt even mad about the homer.

He wont be an Ace, but a very quality guy to have on the backend of your rotation, like a Hudson.  I think he'll end up with a K/9 around 7.5

I <3 him.

He had a breakout year last year and the injury really helped keep his value low this year.  I'm all in.

And while the Blue Jays are the trendy AL East team and the Rays are the hipster AL East team... the Orioles have a really good squad and will be in the hunt all season.

They got the wildcard last year without Reimold, Roberts, and Machado playing most of the year... as well as Markakis missing a lot of time.  (and Hammel)

Team is much better. I'd take the over on whatever their o/u wins are.

It didnt hurt that the fantasy guide I used (not Rotoworld), said he has legit 3.25 200k upside.

Edited by brockpapersizer, 02 April 2013 - 06:25 PM.

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#13 verycoolnin

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 07:25 PM

I'll bite.  12-10, 3.90 ERA, 180 IP, 175 H, 70 BOB, 140 K
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#14 JFS171

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:06 PM

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 02 April 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

Got this guy in almost all my leagues. I think he's a pick up in almost every league. I'd even have him in 10 team leagues if you have a weak staff.

Even though it looks like he had a whatever outing, dude only had 4 base runners in 6 innings.  He had a full count on Zobrist with Longoria on deck and he threw something in the strike zone. I wasnt even mad about the homer.

He wont be an Ace, but a very quality guy to have on the backend of your rotation, like a Hudson.  I think he'll end up with a K/9 around 7.5

I <3 him.

He had a breakout year last year and the injury really helped keep his value low this year.  I'm all in.

And while the Blue Jays are the trendy AL East team and the Rays are the hipster AL East team... the Orioles have a really good squad and will be in the hunt all season.

They got the wildcard last year without Reimold, Roberts, and Machado playing most of the year... as well as Markakis missing a lot of time.  (and Hammel)

Team is much better. I'd take the over on whatever their o/u wins are.

It didnt hurt that the fantasy guide I used (not Rotoworld), said he has legit 3.25 200k upside.

Agree with all of this - curious what guide you're referencing...

#15 SoundMaster

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 09:14 PM

I also drafted him in most of my leagues.    he went for pennies in auctions and last two rounds in my snakes.

My projection:
185 IP
170 K
1.20 whip
3.65 era

Great 6th starter material!

#16 verycoolnin

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Posted 02 April 2013 - 10:07 PM

Jason Hammel has some sick stuff as a 6'5 power sinker guy.  He just needs to stay injury free this year.
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#17 brockpapersizer

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Posted 03 April 2013 - 02:10 AM

View PostJFS171, on 02 April 2013 - 09:06 PM, said:

View Postbrockpapersizer, on 02 April 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

Got this guy in almost all my leagues. I think he's a pick up in almost every league. I'd even have him in 10 team leagues if you have a weak staff.

Even though it looks like he had a whatever outing, dude only had 4 base runners in 6 innings.  He had a full count on Zobrist with Longoria on deck and he threw something in the strike zone. I wasnt even mad about the homer.

He wont be an Ace, but a very quality guy to have on the backend of your rotation, like a Hudson.  I think he'll end up with a K/9 around 7.5

I <3 him.

He had a breakout year last year and the injury really helped keep his value low this year.  I'm all in.

And while the Blue Jays are the trendy AL East team and the Rays are the hipster AL East team... the Orioles have a really good squad and will be in the hunt all season.

They got the wildcard last year without Reimold, Roberts, and Machado playing most of the year... as well as Markakis missing a lot of time.  (and Hammel)

Team is much better. I'd take the over on whatever their o/u wins are.

It didnt hurt that the fantasy guide I used (not Rotoworld), said he has legit 3.25 200k upside.

Agree with all of this - curious what guide you're referencing...

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-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.

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#18 jariners

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Posted 07 April 2013 - 07:20 PM

Had an ok outing today but Jones dropping that ball gave up two.
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#19 cyberer

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Posted 07 April 2013 - 07:34 PM

Yeah he was solid today. I'm still bullish.
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#20 SkinsNoles21

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Posted 08 April 2013 - 10:28 AM

Seems he's given up some runs late in both outings ... Both starts he allowed few base runners ... don't really equal out to his ERA.

Edited by SkinsNoles21, 08 April 2013 - 10:28 AM.

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