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Carlos Gomez 2013 Outlook


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#1 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 09:25 PM

What do we make of him? Could be a very cheap source of HRs and SBs. I think the breakout he had last year is for real. The skill set has always been there.

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#2 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:34 PM

What do we make of him? Could be a very cheap source of HRs and SBs. I think the breakout he had last year is for real. The skill set has always been there.


I think he'll be a great player to own in 2013. He will be had a very fair value and contribute everywhere.

I think he's really taken his game to the next level. Potential All-Star next year, but he will probably be one of the last guys snubbed out due him not being a very mainstream player just yet.

#3 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:46 PM

he still strikes me as a very up and down streaky player... even in the second half last year where he would put together scorching hot weeks, he'd then fall off the cliff completely for like the next 10 days ... was tough to own in h2h.

earlier in the off-season there was some talk the brewers were looking to acquire OFs, which led to speculation he wouldn't even have the starting gig.

i'll watch this situation close in the spring. he certainly has all the tools ... but he does seem to be lacking in the mental arena.

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#4 brockpapersizer

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:58 PM

I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.

Edited by brockpapersizer, 29 December 2012 - 10:58 PM.

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#5 Dodger Blue 88

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 11:20 PM

I think he is very average but his price should be low enough for me to take a chance on as my 4th-5th outfielder.

#6 FouLLine

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 12:32 PM

I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.


His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.

#7 brockpapersizer

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 05:52 PM


I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.


His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.


Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.
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#8 jsp2014

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 08:36 PM

the OBP is a killer. GoGo got about half his starts at the top of the lineup, and half at the bottom because he makes so many outs. that's what's really going to cap his downside. in a career year he had a .305 OBP. failing to get on base at a decent clip means 100 runs or 50 steals are unlikely. I definitely like him though, and hopefully he will stop losing starts to Nyjer Morgan, who is basically just a worse version of GoGo.

the good part is of the 5 hitting 5x5 categories, HR and SB are the most reliable ones and AVG, R, RBI are more susceptible to lineup changes, luck, etc. if things break the right way he can be a top 25 OF.

more realistically, something like .260 with 17 hr, 40 sb, 80 runs, 60 rbi would be a reasonable projection, with upside for more.

Stubbs is a pretty good comp actually. main difference is I'm more inclined to believe Gomez is still growing as a batter, whereas Stubbs feels to me like he's peaked.

Edited by jsp2014, 30 December 2012 - 08:39 PM.

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#9 FouLLine

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 10:30 PM



I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.


His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.


Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.


Stubbs will never even go 30 / 50. Gomez on the other hand might be able to. Gomez and Stubbs are similar but Gomez is faster has more power and is just a better hitter.

#10 brockpapersizer

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 02:47 AM




I think he's more of an option in 5 OF leagues, he has Drew Stubbs type upside which includes Drew Stubbs BA downside.

He carried me last year though.


His upside is far beyond that of a Drew Stubbs. Gomez is a year younger and last year Gomez put together a season better than Stubbs best season which was 3 years ago. Gomez played 13 less games as well. While Stubbs batting average continues to drop due to his atroicious K rate (K'ed over 30% of the time last year).

Gomez has both a higher floor and a higher ceiling by a pretty big margin too.


Perhaps, I wouldnt say far. Think its pretty possible for Stubbs to come close to 30 homers and steal 50 bases....upside wise. I'm not sure that you can project gomez for "far" beyond that.

I'm curious to see where they both go in drafts. Rather have Gomez strictly because he seemed to have a breakout last year, but if he's going to be a trendy guy for that reason and have to reach for him as a high OF 3 or low OF 2, I'll pass... because he has the slumps that will kill you and make you want to throw something at your computer after a 2/50 day that year your team has off of Gomez' 4th 0/4 in a row.


Stubbs will never even go 30 / 50. Gomez on the other hand might be able to. Gomez and Stubbs are similar but Gomez is faster has more power and is just a better hitter.


It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.
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#11 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 05:15 AM

It's extremely unlikely either guy goes 30/50 so I don't see how it matters if one guy has a .5% chance and the other has a .1% chance. I'm more concerned about realistic outcomes than perceived "ceilings" that are completely arbitrary.
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#12 FouLLine

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 06:14 PM

It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.


Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.

#13 brockpapersizer

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 06:18 PM


It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.


Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.


that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.
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#14 FouLLine

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 06:18 PM

It's extremely unlikely either guy goes 30/50 so I don't see how it matters if one guy has a .5% chance and the other has a .1% chance. I'm more concerned about realistic outcomes than perceived "ceilings" that are completely arbitrary.


Realistically I think Gomez can do 25 HRs and 35 SB while maintaining a batting average over .260 with 100 run potential.

#15 FouLLine

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 06:19 PM



It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.


Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.


that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.


Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.

#16 brockpapersizer

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 06:50 PM




It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.


Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.


that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.


Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.


Stubbs will not go undrafted I think. I still think he'll go as a top 60-70 OF. Which makes im a 5th OF in 12 team 5 OF leagues. In shallow 10 team 3 OF leagues, probably, but he has upside and is worth drafting at the end of drafts to see how he starts the season. If he's your 5th starter, you could probably do worse and worst case scenario you could drop him for whoever starts out hot on waivers.
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#17 PRoSPx

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 12:42 AM





It's called a ceiling A lot of players never reach theirs. Had 22 homers in a season, still 28 not impossible to get some more power and hit 30. Had 40 steals in a base, if he gets on base more he could get 50 steals.


Yeah but generally more power (HRs and 2Bs) will equate to less SBs.


that's fine. Works for both players though. Again I like Carlos Gomez way more because he's in a better park and on a better team, but most importantly is that last year looked like a breakthrough. I still contend they have similar fantasy ceilings.


Agreed 100%. Which is why I'll be keying Gomez and I think Stubbs will go at the end of the draft or undrafted this year.

Gomez broke out last year. Whereas Stubbs continued to fade and fall off.


Stubbs will not go undrafted I think. I still think he'll go as a top 60-70 OF. Which makes im a 5th OF in 12 team 5 OF leagues. In shallow 10 team 3 OF leagues, probably, but he has upside and is worth drafting at the end of drafts to see how he starts the season. If he's your 5th starter, you could probably do worse and worst case scenario you could drop him for whoever starts out hot on waivers.

I think Stubbs probably goes undrafted in about half standard 12 team leagues.

#18 ballfan4141

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:58 AM

this dude always had the skills to be a top 30 type guy.

#19 2ndCitySox

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:17 AM

Where would you rank him in an OBP league?
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#20 Skoodog

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 09:31 AM

The upside to Gomez is he should have the fulltime gig, which projecting his counting stats puts him in the 20/40 club. However, with the breakout of Aoki, he may be dropped way down in the lineup which will limit some ability to steal and of course runs.

Owners such as myself must hope that he can continue to improve on his hit tool and work on drawing more walks to reassume the coveted leadoff position.

FG did a nice little write-up on his power breakout trending to be real:

http://www.fangraphs...eaks-out-kinda/
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