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Max Scherzer 2013 Outlook


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#1 FouLLine

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:43 PM

Coming off of arguably his best season yet, I don't think Max has reached his "Max" potential quite yet. How much better do you guys think he can get?

I would love for his last year's ratios to get carried over around 210 - 220 innings.

#2 LyondellBasell

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 10:52 PM

how much you wanna bet he starts off the year horrible again b/c he once again is out of whack with his mechanics? he's burned me way too many times.

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#3 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 29 December 2012 - 11:20 PM

Throws too many pitches and exerts too much energy to toss 210+ innings. Over the last 4 years one of April or May has always been a disaster for him. The upside is massive but it's better to expect and draft him as a 195 inning, 3.50 era type season as opposed to much more. His k-potential will be 200+ (obviously) and while wins are a variable, on Detroit he should be put in position for plenty of them. I like him and I hope he doesn't get over drafted.

#4 AnonymousRob

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 03:32 AM

how much you wanna bet he starts off the year horrible again b/c he once again is out of whack with his mechanics? he's burned me way too many times.

That's not an unreasonable guess. Still, I'll be snagging this guy in every single draft I'm in. His current ADP will surely rise but he's being taken as the 26th pitcher right now.

His career stats are a 4+ era and a 1.30+ whip. But I'm all in. Nobody gets him for the pretty era/whip. If he repeats last year that's simply a bonus. He's being drafted for the k's, baby. And he's got 'em in spades, with a career average of just over 1 per inning.

But let's talk about last year. After his brutal April (his whip was over 2!), he had a 3.14 era and a whip of 1.16. That's while allowing a career high babip of 333! Throw in a career high strikeout rate (11.08/9) and I'm drooling at the thought of him finally breaking out on my team.

He's not a sure thing. He's had hot streaks before. And when he's off it could be against any team. ie you can't bench him vs. the Rangers and Yankees but roll with him vs. the Astros and Mariners. But if he were a sure thing he'd be getting drafted a LOT higher than his current ADP.

At his current going rate this guy is screaming value to me and has potential breakout written all over him. And even if he does revert back to same old Max, that's not the worst thing in the world. You'll be 'stuck' with a guy who craps on your whip, is neutral or a slight drain to your era, but is a MASSIVE help to your k's and should be a solid source of wins. Stream a Petco pitcher to cool your whip and you've got mostly yourself a season of studliness.
Want help in your A/C threads? Give details!!! Keeper/dynasty/redraft, ppr, league size, who is on your roster, roto/H2H, scoring system, etc.

#5 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 12:29 PM

Reminds me of Felix Hernandez circa 2006-09. Great peripherals, but for some reason BABIP is high, HR rate is high, and doesn't strand runners

But the peripherals, hope Max fixes his issues with the above...

#6 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 04:39 PM


how much you wanna bet he starts off the year horrible again b/c he once again is out of whack with his mechanics? he's burned me way too many times.

That's not an unreasonable guess. Still, I'll be snagging this guy in every single draft I'm in. His current ADP will surely rise but he's being taken as the 26th pitcher right now.

His career stats are a 4+ era and a 1.30+ whip. But I'm all in. Nobody gets him for the pretty era/whip. If he repeats last year that's simply a bonus. He's being drafted for the k's, baby. And he's got 'em in spades, with a career average of just over 1 per inning.

But let's talk about last year. After his brutal April (his whip was over 2!), he had a 3.14 era and a whip of 1.16. That's while allowing a career high babip of 333! Throw in a career high strikeout rate (11.08/9) and I'm drooling at the thought of him finally breaking out on my team.

He's not a sure thing. He's had hot streaks before. And when he's off it could be against any team. ie you can't bench him vs. the Rangers and Yankees but roll with him vs. the Astros and Mariners. But if he were a sure thing he'd be getting drafted a LOT higher than his current ADP.

At his current going rate this guy is screaming value to me and has potential breakout written all over him. And even if he does revert back to same old Max, that's not the worst thing in the world. You'll be 'stuck' with a guy who craps on your whip, is neutral or a slight drain to your era, but is a MASSIVE help to your k's and should be a solid source of wins. Stream a Petco pitcher to cool your whip and you've got mostly yourself a season of studliness.


All the ADP's are out of whack now. I wouldn't pay attention to those for another month. CarGo is going 3rd over Trout (4th), Longoria is going 35th, Hunter Pence 24th...I could use about 50 different examples, but basically all the ADP's are completely erroneous right now for some reason. With regards to Scherzer, I don't think he climbs into the top 20 anyways because he does have risks (mechanics, injury (odd mechanics don't help dispel early career injury worries), slow starts).

#7 AnonymousRob

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 04:58 PM

Yeah, it's a sure thing ADP's will change as we get closer to the season. And I'll re-evaluate value at that time. Still pretty sure Scherzer is still going to be someone I'm targetting heavily. If you take him as he is - warts and all - he's still a useful player on your team. If he skips his bad month and breaks out, he's an absolute nightmare for your opponents.
Want help in your A/C threads? Give details!!! Keeper/dynasty/redraft, ppr, league size, who is on your roster, roto/H2H, scoring system, etc.

#8 FouLLine

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 10:32 PM

All the ADP's are out of whack now. I wouldn't pay attention to those for another month. CarGo is going 3rd over Trout (4th), Longoria is going 35th, Hunter Pence 24th...I could use about 50 different examples, but basically all the ADP's are completely erroneous right now for some reason. With regards to Scherzer, I don't think he climbs into the top 20 anyways because he does have risks (mechanics, injury (odd mechanics don't help dispel early career injury worries), slow starts).


CaRGo in the 3rd? Every mock draft I've done CaRGo has been a top 10 pick. I've seen CaRGo go as high as 5th overall, more than once too.

#9 Dissection

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 11:19 PM

3rd pick not 3rd round(for CarGo).I like MadMax and I"ll be looking to draft him if the price is right.Reaching for him would be too risky but I think he has found his groove in Detroit.

Edited by Dissection, 30 December 2012 - 11:23 PM.


#10 baltimore_boy

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Posted 30 December 2012 - 11:48 PM

Max is the type of pitcher that I always seem to love and reach for, and almost always get burned from it. They are just way too inconsistent. I hope to finally stop the trend and avoid them this year (I left the spot blank on my depth charts, so I'm not tempted), so Scherzer should be in for a great year. I always seem to give up on these guys a year too early.
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#11 ChrisFarley

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 12:38 AM

His stuff was great in 2012. Nice heat with a biting slider and a change that gave lefties fits. As long as he's healthy, I see 3.50/1.25/200K

#12 jsp2014

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 05:18 AM

He's a gamble but the upside is so high and I really don't think the downside is too bad. He'd pair nicely with a more stable innings eater like Cliff Lee. I anticipate he'll be a top 75 pick by the time draft season rolls around. He will be a very trendy breakout pick imo.

Edited by jsp2014, 31 December 2012 - 05:19 AM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#13 Rob_P

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Posted 31 December 2012 - 07:21 PM

He seemed to figure something out this past year. His second half seemed to be elite and I believe his numbers were better then Verlanders for much of the second half. I will definitely be targeting him.

#14 crazy47larry

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Posted 01 January 2013 - 08:25 AM

Max is the type of pitcher that I always seem to love and reach for, and almost always get burned from it. They are just way too inconsistent. I hope to finally stop the trend and avoid them this year (I left the spot blank on my depth charts, so I'm not tempted), so Scherzer should be in for a great year. I always seem to give up on these guys a year too early.

Yeah me too, but I am gonna stick with it. His breakout potential and rediculous K-rate is delicious.

He's a gamble but the upside is so high and I really don't think the downside is too bad. He'd pair nicely with a more stable innings eater like Cliff Lee. I anticipate he'll be a top 75 pick by the time draft season rolls around. He will be a very trendy breakout pick imo.

Yeah 'experts' are going to be all over this guy. I think he will be damn expensive come draft time.
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#15 ballfan4141

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 07:39 AM

as long as he has them 200 or more strikeouts he will be ok.

#16 Wombat

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 02:19 AM

I am honestly shocked at how low he is going in drafts. He's been all over the place, but his upside is through the roof. His K rate was insane last year, if you play in an innings cap format a guy who can put up 10-11 K/9 for close to 200 innings is massive. And you can get him in like the 7th round in 12 team leagues right now, even if he is inconsistent like last year its unlikely he is going to be a total bust because the k's are going to be there for sure.

#17 PRoSPx

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 03:27 AM

I am honestly shocked at how low he is going in drafts. He's been all over the place, but his upside is through the roof. His K rate was insane last year, if you play in an innings cap format a guy who can put up 10-11 K/9 for close to 200 innings is massive. And you can get him in like the 7th round in 12 team leagues right now, even if he is inconsistent like last year its unlikely he is going to be a total bust because the k's are going to be there for sure.


Certainly is a high upside arm. I see Max one of these years putting together a dominating Cy Young Contending year.

#18 LyondellBasell

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 08:15 AM

He seemed to figure something out this past year. His second half seemed to be elite and I believe his numbers were better then Verlanders for much of the second half. I will definitely be targeting him.


he's figured things out before, only to forget them

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#19 Z06vette

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 09:25 AM

This guy could possibly be the best pitcher in baseball this year. Go after some BIG sticks early and then take Max and/or a Wainwright to anchor my pitching staff is something I'm considering. May be a gamble but doing everything that is obvious in fantasy baseball doesn't win championships IMO.
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#20 ballfan4141

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Posted 03 March 2013 - 10:04 AM

if he can get the 230 strikeouts again yes. that is where his value lies. plus the wins the tigers get him.