383 replies to this topic

[baltimore_boy]

What has happened to Dee? He was just this huge, up-and-coming prospect a few years ago. Now, after a semi disappointing year (he still stole 30 bases in only 300 AB's) he seems to have been forgotten out in LA. Is Dee still worth taking this year with the hope that he eventually takes over for Cruz? Or is he better off being sent out to the waiver wire for the year?

[calzonesays]

27 BB in 560+ ABs.

[poopdungbeatle]

I don't think Dee is worth drafting in standard leagues.  He doesn't have a starting job and will only have value once he's traded and secures a starting role on another team.
He strikes out way too often for a slap hitter.  He always swings at breaking balls that hit the ground!  On top of that, his defense is crap.  Hanley isn't a good defensive SS, but I really think he's better than Dee.  James Loney saved Dee on soooo many occassions with his stellar defense at 1b.

[FouLLine]

poopdungbeatle, on 01 January 2013 - 03:23 PM, said:

I don't think Dee is worth drafting in standard leagues.  He doesn't have a starting job and will only have value once he's traded and secures a starting role on another team.

Dee could be one of those great last or 2nd to last picks.  He has crazy upside and the value is there this year.

[Nick Mitchell]

I agree about him possibly being one of those nice late picks in your draft if someone doesn't overvalue him (on lack of knowledge or thinking they know more than they really do...either way, Dee is a candidate to get overpaid in my league, knowing some of the people from last year depending on how many of the newer guys are back and stuff..), or maybe a bargain pick for $1-$5 in an auction league as a stash/spot-start if you have a deep enough bench (this is assuming we're talking about redraft leagues, or at least my post is from the mindset that I'm working in a redraft), because if he does get regular at bats he will steal bases.

With that being said, I really wouldn't say he has "crazy" upside- his upside is that of Emilio Bonifacio or Everth Cabera- probably closer to Cabera; ergo, an all-speed/3-cat. guy. Dee isn't going to hit home runs or drive in runs... that's a given. So there's no upside there. OK, he might not kill you in the R category just because he's bound to steal 2B enough and someone will knock him in once in awhile no matter where he's playing or batting at in the order as long as he's getting to 2B once in awhile (probably and hopefully off of a successful SB attempt, because that's the only real reason to own Dee Gordon- let's be honest, we're not drafting him with the expectation or hope that he turns into the Carlos Gomez of 2013, are we?- we're drafting him for the SB numbers he could put up in more of a full-time gig, w/ the Dodgers or not). So he will probably help you in SB for sure- even if he only pinch runs this year, and he at least won't hurt you in the R category- but he might not be an asset. That's 4 categories and only one thing that's sure is he is fast and can swipe a bag or two any given night. Throw in BA or OBP (whichever your standard 5x5 goes by; my main league is a 14-team mixed 5x5 w/ OBP in place of BA), and that's the category that makes or breaks him for me, as far as whether or not he's a guy to target (even as a final round or $1 pick). So he's a stash to me no matter what if I'm going to draft him or somehow wind up in a situation and am drafting him. If he shows he can hit enough to get on base, he would be worth a spot-start in the right situations or against limp-arm catchers or staffs with a ton of guys with slow deliveries (Pittsburgh Pirates, anyone?). But so far, he has not really hit. His triple-slash from last year is putrid. Every line starts with the #2. I'll look it up anyway, though...

.228/.280/.281 ...

Which brings me to the part of my post I put in bold up there. I wanted to say something but figured it would be easier to read if I separated it from the rest.

My league is OBP and not BA, as I said. So if he can't learn how to slap couple singles and get his OBP to at least .300 or higher, he would be completely worthless save for his SB. Not all leagues are the same, but even in a 14-team mixed league w/ deep rosters (well, 25 man w/ 2 DL spots- seems like a somewhat deep league to me, but I have played in bigger ones, and again- it does depend on league categories), I don't think I will be targeting him unless he's a waiver add mid-season (or goes undrafted and starts hot and I can scoop him up in time).

He simply has not shown the ability to hit yet. Honestly, he reminds me a bit of Carlos Gomez in his earlier years, the first season or two with the Twins. But even then, Gomez had a very nice glove... from what I have seen of Dee in the field, I wouldn't put Hanley over him at defense (or rate him as a better SS defensively- let's put it that way), but Dee isn't graceful by any means.

He isn't worth the risk or stash in a 12-team 5x5 (especially one that uses OBP > BA) if he isn't guaranteed a starting job to me. Maybe 14. I just see *SO* many speed-only guys who could be very similar players and either go undrafted or come even cheaper than Dee. Some names:

Juan Pierre (he will be undervalued because he's a dinosaur on the Marlins, and while I don't want him, he'll probably swipe as many bags as Gordon given he's got the clearer path to playing time, even if Gordon gets a job mid-season- and he'll probably hit better still...)

Everth Cabrera (my favorite speed kills type of fantasy guy- although he isn't much of a sleeper after leading the NL in steals- or at least, he's more of one of those sexy sleepers that will wind up being paid too much, he's so similar to Dee Gordon in that they can't hit but both can run, run, run- and I see some projection in Cabrera's bat for 2013 + he's going to see regular bats out of the gate most likely, whereas right now Dee isn't even set to start- though both situations could change, obviously)

Bonifacio (just because he is just like Gordon, and might be eligible at more positions- not sure- but he's likely to play multiple positions and be eligible all over the place by June or July if he stays healthy, so I think he may be the best true "stash" player when we're talking guys w/ speed & upside, if only because he really is one of the few super-utility guys left)

Rajai Davis (in limited time, he did his usual thing again last year- and I know Toronto has improved a ton, but I still suspect he'll wind up stealing 35-45 bases anyway, and if he can start hitting, he'll steal some starts as the 4th OF)

Peter Bourjous (better line-up, if he does start in center, he should swipe bags- and I think he has a better chance to hit than Gordon too)

Darin Mastrioanni (if he starts in place of Revere... the guy can flat-out run and is more or less just like Revere)

Ben Revere (he will be overvalued, but I'll list him anyway but I do prefer him to Dee if they're both looking at me with a $5 price tag- more of a guy who will come affordable in smaller leagues, probably...)

Carlos Gomez (if you're willing to go about $10-$15 on him, he might be worth it in the end for auctions, because he will probably go for that much or maybe more in some leagues based on his hype- I think he may make some people to skeptical to put down much money in other leagues, though, so at the right price, he could be a great affordable/late pick and should be available well into non-auction 12+ team drafts anyway and there to pluck near the end)

These are all just examples. I could list a bunch more. Only point I'm trying to make is I think there are a lot of speed-speed-speed players who can help you out in 2-3 categories, and Dee might just be a one- maybe two-cat. player. That's all. I don't see much upside. I see Juan Pierre it SS.

My 7 cents...

[Nick Mitchell]

Oh, those guys also won't triple slash in the .250-.280 range, either. They may not hit very well or be gauranteed a fast-track to a full load of AB, but they're probably safer picks, even if you have to spend an extra buck or two. These types of players can make a difference for your team in some leagues, sometimes a lot.... I remember picking up Rajai during one of his speed-binges and it really helped me gain some points back in the SB cat. But he also would drive in runs now and then too, and wasn't killing my OBP at the time, either.

I also used Everth Cabrera on and off last year, as well as C, Gomez, but both players I owned when their value was low (and when they continued to slump, I wound up cutting them for someone else to later nab- same thing happened with Rajai too, honestly).

I just think that Dee Gordon is a guy who will only help in one category. And when there's going to be a lot of guys on the wire who can provide help in the SB and R categories, I don't think I'll be looking to draft Gordon unless I know he's going to get starter AB out of the gate.

Then he's a perfectly reasonable stash and see. If he comes out of the gate and looks hot as hell, maybe he figured something out and you're a genius.

Another player I neglected to mention above was Jemile Weeks, who could be a nice speed upside guy, but I don't even know what his playing time situation is like so he's just like Dee Gordon to me. Until I see them hit the ball for more than a tiny sample size, I can't trust to draft them, even with 14 teams and 25 slots.

I dunno... what does everyone else think his auction value in a standard $260 budget would be?

[calzonesays]

wow.  didn't even notice his .281 SLG%.  that is AWFUL. couldn't get some slap doubles with his speed?

Edited by calzonesays, 02 January 2013 - 01:57 AM.

[Dodger Blue 88]

I hope the Dodgers don't trade him. After Cruz shows why he was in the minors so long and is a bust this year they can move Hanley to 3b and D. Gordon to shortstop. With more expierence he can get on base more and we all know his SB upside.

[aarbuz]

DEEEEEEE......not going to work in LA......Luis Cruz is the man until they make a deal.....

[lavaman]

Dee reminds me of Juan Pierre.  Remember him?

Under-appreciated, but when he's not on your roster you realize you miss what he brings to the table.

[jsp2014]

can't steal 1st base from the bench

he's one of those guys, and I can just feel it: someone drafts him, holds him for a month, drops him because he's a pinch runner... then some time around June, he gets a starting job and I pick him up. and he provides some nice WW value for me.

it's very difficult to hold a player in a bench role when there are so many attractive pickups in April. you're going to drop him, so don't draft him. it's one of the biggest mistakes I see people make.

Edited by jsp2014, 02 January 2013 - 09:05 PM.

[jsp2014]

lavaman, on 02 January 2013 - 07:59 PM, said:

Dee reminds me of Juan Pierre.  Remember him?

Under-appreciated, but when he's not on your roster you realize you miss what he brings to the table.

reminds me more of Tony Womack. but that was when teams thought speed-only, low OBP guys had some offensive value.

Edited by jsp2014, 02 January 2013 - 09:06 PM.

[hasonmare]

I don't think Dee is worth drafting in standard leagues.

[WahooManiac]

Dude weighs in at like 85lbs, with cleats. Not gonna handle a full season even if he somehow gets the PT. Not touching in any format

[Thespis721]

Reminds me of Tony Campana. Big speed. People love him for their own reasons but he isn't getting regular time and in the end, he's not giving you much net value. Maybe if either of them got full time it would be one thing but not in their current condition.

[baltimore_boy]

Thespis721, on 03 January 2013 - 07:46 AM, said:

Reminds me of Tony Campana. Big speed. People love him for their own reasons but he isn't getting regular time and in the end, he's not giving you much net value. Maybe if either of them got full time it would be one thing but not in their current condition.

This. Reading the comparisons in here, Campana was the first one that I thought of. You can't really take Dee and play him in matchups because he can steal at any time. He's a boom or bust pick. You''ll love him if you have him and he shows up to play this  year, but you'll hate it if he goes off on someone else's team. I'm taking him at the end of the draft with the hope that he gets time over Cruz, or gets traded to a team willing to give him a try.

[PRoSPx]

He could beat out Cruz or Ellis... Or he may start in the minors and get the call upon an infield injury.

[Halo Fan]

Or he could just flat out stink.

[cymbaline]

If last year's September stretch run is any indication, this is what Mattingly and the Dodgers think of him:
9 games, 3 PA's, 0-2, 2 SB, 2 CS

When it was crunch time and the Dodgers absolutely needed to win to chase down the Giants, they did not trust Gordon at all.  And how could they?  Poor plate discipline, poor defense, mediocre SB success rate.  Dee got outplayed by Cruz in nearly every facet of baseball after Hanley was shifted to SS.

Gordon is undraftable unless he wins a starting role.  I guess he's worth monitoring if SB is critical but he's so one-dimensional that he's a waste of roster space without PT.  That, and he has only a slim chance of hitting near the top of the lineup except in AAA.

Edited by cymbaline, 04 January 2013 - 12:51 AM.

[klove42]

cymbaline, on 04 January 2013 - 12:49 AM, said:

If last year's September stretch run is any indication, this is what Mattingly and the Dodgers think of him:
9 games, 3 PA's, 0-2, 2 SB, 2 CS

When it was crunch time and the Dodgers absolutely needed to win to chase down the Giants, they did not trust Gordon at all.  And how could they?  Poor plate discipline, poor defense, mediocre SB success rate.  Dee got outplayed by Cruz in nearly every facet of baseball after Hanley was shifted to SS.

Gordon is undraftable unless he wins a starting role.  I guess he's worth monitoring if SB is critical but he's so one-dimensional that he's a waste of roster space without PT.  That, and he has only a slim chance of hitting near the top of the lineup except in AAA.

Great point, even if he does win the starting job the #8 spot in the lineup is terrible in the NL. No runs, no power, no rbis.

Off Topic but last year when I did own dee and thought he had good fantasy value, and I was watching the Dodger game where he hit the home run, I actually jumped out of my seat and cheered.