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Dee Gordon 2013 Outlook


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#241 marinwood

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:54 AM

I read he was starting to play 2nd in the minors prior to hanram getting hurt. When hanram comes back is it possible seeing them up the middle? Ellis is the exact opposite of showtime (earvin Johnson)

#242 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:56 AM

I read he was starting to play 2nd in the minors prior to hanram getting hurt. When hanram comes back is it possible seeing them up the middle? Ellis is the exact opposite of showtime (earvin Johnson)


Dodger pitchers are hitting for a higher AVG and SLG than Dodger 3B. It wouldn't surprise me if they went HanRam - Dee - Ellis third to second.

#243 Cmilne23

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:58 AM

It isn't so simple as to say once he gets on he can steal 2nd and then bunt. He has not even better a great base stealer in the majors. He had a 76% career success rate coming into the season. He is a high volume steals guy, but lets not pretend like he is some great base stealer. Maybe he can change the course this season, but thus far in his first few seasons in the majors he showed a very low baseball IQ. He needs to be someone in between his rookie season and last year to have value. He is probably not a .220 hitter, and he is definitely not a .300 hitter. He has to settle in somewhere in between and he should be solid enough to use for SB's only.

#244 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:03 AM

It isn't so simple as to say once he gets on he can steal 2nd and then bunt. He has not even better a great base stealer in the majors. He had a 76% career success rate coming into the season. He is a high volume steals guy, but lets not pretend like he is some great base stealer. Maybe he can change the course this season, but thus far in his first few seasons in the majors he showed a very low baseball IQ. He needs to be someone in between his rookie season and last year to have value. He is probably not a .220 hitter, and he is definitely not a .300 hitter. He has to settle in somewhere in between and he should be solid enough to use for SB's only.


Rickey Henderson has a career SB% of 80.75. This isn't exactly foreign to have elite speed guys get caught a lot. It doesn't mean they have a low IQ or suck at stealing bases. It means teams scout them, teams pitch out, and teams hold them really close to the bag. Rickey was also a "high volume steals guy" too. How about Jose Reyes and his 80.11% SB rate or Juan Pierres 75% career rate?

I think you're jumping to conclusions based off of applying a statistic incorrectly. None of these guys are stealing 4 out of 5 bags.

Edit: He's currently at 77.63%.

Edited by NoClownQuestionsBro, 06 May 2013 - 09:07 AM.


#245 Cmilne23

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:07 AM


It isn't so simple as to say once he gets on he can steal 2nd and then bunt. He has not even better a great base stealer in the majors. He had a 76% career success rate coming into the season. He is a high volume steals guy, but lets not pretend like he is some great base stealer. Maybe he can change the course this season, but thus far in his first few seasons in the majors he showed a very low baseball IQ. He needs to be someone in between his rookie season and last year to have value. He is probably not a .220 hitter, and he is definitely not a .300 hitter. He has to settle in somewhere in between and he should be solid enough to use for SB's only.


Rickey Henderson has a career SB% of 80.75. This isn't exactly foreign to have elite speed guys get caught a lot. It doesn't mean they have a low IQ or suck at stealing bases. It means teams scout them, teams pitch out, and teams hold them really close to the bag. Rickey was also a "high volume steals guy" too. How about Jose Reyes and his 80.11% SB rate or Juan Pierres 75% career rate?

I think you're jumping to conclusions based off of applying a statistic incorrectly. None of these guys are stealing 4 out of 5 bags.


Well he has a low baseball IQ because he sucks on defense, and his on base skills have been an embarrassment. Not just because of his SB's. He was all around the worst player in baseball last season for his sample size of playing. Worst rated SS defensively, mediocre SB rates, and horrid on base skills. To me that equals low baseball IQ. Lets see if time in the minors woke him up.

#246 Pusherman

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:09 AM



It isn't so simple as to say once he gets on he can steal 2nd and then bunt. He has not even better a great base stealer in the majors. He had a 76% career success rate coming into the season. He is a high volume steals guy, but lets not pretend like he is some great base stealer. Maybe he can change the course this season, but thus far in his first few seasons in the majors he showed a very low baseball IQ. He needs to be someone in between his rookie season and last year to have value. He is probably not a .220 hitter, and he is definitely not a .300 hitter. He has to settle in somewhere in between and he should be solid enough to use for SB's only.


Rickey Henderson has a career SB% of 80.75. This isn't exactly foreign to have elite speed guys get caught a lot. It doesn't mean they have a low IQ or suck at stealing bases. It means teams scout them, teams pitch out, and teams hold them really close to the bag. Rickey was also a "high volume steals guy" too. How about Jose Reyes and his 80.11% SB rate or Juan Pierres 75% career rate?

I think you're jumping to conclusions based off of applying a statistic incorrectly. None of these guys are stealing 4 out of 5 bags.


Well he has a low baseball IQ because he sucks on defense, and his on base skills have been an embarrassment. Not just because of his SB's. He was all around the worst player in baseball last season for his sample size of playing. Worst rated SS defensively, mediocre SB rates, and horrid on base skills. To me that equals low baseball IQ. Lets see if time in the minors woke him up.


Perhaps he applied to Mensa in the offseason.

#247 Alfonz289

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:12 AM

All this back and forth about his percentages.....who cares. You got him off the WW. If you need steals and he can give you 2 or 3 a week, use him. If you are good on steals and don't like his batting average, dump him back to the WW. A lot of people on these forums like to over analyze things way too much.
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#248 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:16 AM

Well he has a low baseball IQ because he sucks on defense, and his on base skills have been an embarrassment. Not just because of his SB's. He was all around the worst player in baseball last season for his sample size of playing. Worst rated SS defensively, mediocre SB rates, and horrid on base skills. To me that equals low baseball IQ. Lets see if time in the minors woke him up.


Come on now CMiline you're better than all of that.

Here's your logic: If a player is bad at defense, he has a low baseball IQ. So now let's take that formula and apply it to another player that's really bad at defense.

Worst UZR/150 in the league belongs to...Matt Kemp. Matt Kemp is bad at defense so he has a low baseball IQ? Does that also apply to Jon Jay or Shin Soo Choo as well?

Also, I love how people are just burying this kid after 145 games of major league time. I mean, he had one bad year where he put up an OBP of .287. It was really bad but he still has a per 145 line of .262/.303. Plenty of guys have made a living in this league with speed and that line. I just don't understand how his on base skills are embarrassing when they've been right around league average?

And no, he wasn't the worst player in baseball last season for his small sample. That honor certainly didn't belong to him according to WAR and he wasn't the worst defensive SS either. Jeter and Alcides Escobar were worse in UZR, UZR/150, RZR, and RngR.

You're overreacting quite a bit.

#249 Cmilne23

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:27 AM


Well he has a low baseball IQ because he sucks on defense, and his on base skills have been an embarrassment. Not just because of his SB's. He was all around the worst player in baseball last season for his sample size of playing. Worst rated SS defensively, mediocre SB rates, and horrid on base skills. To me that equals low baseball IQ. Lets see if time in the minors woke him up.


Come on now CMiline you're better than all of that.

Here's your logic: If a player is bad at defense, he has a low baseball IQ. So now let's take that formula and apply it to another player that's really bad at defense.

Worst UZR/150 in the league belongs to...Matt Kemp. Matt Kemp is bad at defense so he has a low baseball IQ? Does that also apply to Jon Jay or Shin Soo Choo as well?

Also, I love how people are just burying this kid after 145 games of major league time. I mean, he had one bad year where he put up an OBP of .287. It was really bad but he still has a per 145 line of .262/.303. Plenty of guys have made a living in this league with speed and that line. I just don't understand how his on base skills are embarrassing when they've been right around league average?

And no, he wasn't the worst player in baseball last season for his small sample. That honor certainly didn't belong to him according to WAR and he wasn't the worst defensive SS either. Jeter and Alcides Escobar were worse in UZR, UZR/150, RZR, and RngR.

You're overreacting quite a bit.


Huh? Kemp is bad at defense but he mashes. Same with Choo, his defense is less than ideal, but he has great On base skills and mashes. Those are poor examples. Dee Gordon is poor in every facet of the game. Why do you think he had unreal -1.3 WAR in 87 games last season? Because he was the worst rated defensive SS, he had mediocre SB's, and he had one of the worst OBP's in the league.

You are really going to try and argue against his defense? Jeter was -14.0, Alcides was -13.5, Gordon was -13.4. I guess Ryan Raburn beat him out for worst rated player in the league for WAR with his -1.5 in 66 games, to Gordon's -1.4 in 87 games.

Either way you can't really dispute against it, he does have an extremely low baseball IQ, albeit in a small sample size of games. He has played just horrid D, his on base skills have been just horrendous, and his SB rates have been mediocre. Maybe he can reverse trend, all I am doing is cautioning people who think they are getting a really good asset off of FA. I do think he should be owned in fantasy league but he has a lot to overcome to be an everyday option and keep a job I think. The defense part may not factor into fantasy leagues, but it sure as hell factors into him keeping a job on a real MLB team. That is why the Dodgers have been so hesitant to even give him another shot because a guy who has almost a zero hit tool can play league worst defense and keep a job. Just something to keep an eye on.

#250 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:36 AM

Huh? Kemp is bad at defense but he mashes. Same with Choo, his defense is less than ideal, but he has great On base skills and mashes. Those are poor examples. Dee Gordon is poor in every facet of the game. Why do you think he had unreal -1.3 WAR in 87 games last season? Because he was the worst rated defensive SS, he had mediocre SB's, and he had one of the worst OBP's in the league.


I was demonstrating how poor your logic is. You stated "Dee Gordon has a low baseball IQ because he is bad at defense." So I replaced "Dee Gordon" with other players that are bad at defense yet clearly don't have low baseball IQs. I did that to demonstrate to you that just because you're bad at defense doesn't mean you have a low baseball IQ. Nothing I've ever read indicated Gordon has a low baseball IQ. Sometimes people just aren't very good at parts of the game. It doesn't mean they're baseball dumb.

And again, you're wrong. He wasn't the worst defensive shortstop last year.

You are really going to try and argue against his defense? Jeter was -14.0, Alcides was -13.5, Gordon was -13.4. I guess Ryan Raburn beat him out for worst rated player in the league for WAR with his -1.5 in 66 games, to Gordon's -1.4 in 87 games.


Aren't we speaking factually here? Because if we are then yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. You can't just go into this guys thread and make false claims like he's the "worst defensive SS in baseball" when that's a false claim. You can't say that just because it sounds good. UZR has him as third worst and RZR doesn't even have him bottom 9 among SS witha min 100 innings. UZR/150 has him outside the bottom 3 as well. So looking at all those metrics, with none have him as the worst, you are wrong.

And it depends what WAR you're using. bWAR, which credits defense, has him far from the worst in the league (ironically!) while fWAR has him close but not the worst in the league. Again, just because it sounds good to say he is the worst in the league (was?) doesn't mean you can say it if you're wrong.

Either way you can't really dispute against it, he does have an extremely low baseball IQ, albeit in a small sample size of games.


I just did.

He has played just horrid D, his on base skills have been just horrendous, and his SB rates have been mediocre.


I guess Rickey Henderson and Jose Reyes and Juan Pierre all have mediocre SB rates too (80%, 80%, and 75% to Dee's 77%). Give me a break.

#251 MeisterT

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 09:40 AM

Man, lil Dee is creating some Bauer-style loathing. Maybe there's a forum divide between guys who had him last year expecting a fulltime SS with fantastic speed numbers and got burned and owners like me this year who never owned him (and I barely even saw him play last year, west coast and all and didn't own any LaD guys) and pretty much picked him up as a one category flier. The ABs have seen so far have been a mixed bath, some hacking early, others he's shown good patience, the speed and SBs aren't in doubt though. As far as can tell he can pretty much swipe a bag at will.

Have to admit though, already in two games I've been appalled by his arm, can't believe the guy wasn't been switched to 2B several years ago, and he's already made a couple iffy plays too which is never good for a young SS who needs to develop at the plate as well as field. A glove like Andrelton Simmons will get every day playing time just because of his glove, along the way he can learn and grow at the plate. Dee's defense may give him a shorter leash even with the Dodger's MASH squad right now.

At any rate going into the Dee Gordon experience with an open mind, understand there's some significant flaws to his game but as a flier pretty much meant to do one thing can take the other stuff as it comes and hope for the best. That's easy to say now when he hasn't just handed me a 0-5 while butchering a series of plays behind my guy Kershaw but I'll burn that bridge when I get to it. For now run Dee run.
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#252 GretzGretzky

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:01 AM

Fangraphs really likes him.

http://www.fangraphs...ome-dee-gordon/

#253 Cmilne23

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 10:10 AM


Huh? Kemp is bad at defense but he mashes. Same with Choo, his defense is less than ideal, but he has great On base skills and mashes. Those are poor examples. Dee Gordon is poor in every facet of the game. Why do you think he had unreal -1.3 WAR in 87 games last season? Because he was the worst rated defensive SS, he had mediocre SB's, and he had one of the worst OBP's in the league.


I was demonstrating how poor your logic is. You stated "Dee Gordon has a low baseball IQ because he is bad at defense." So I replaced "Dee Gordon" with other players that are bad at defense yet clearly don't have low baseball IQs. I did that to demonstrate to you that just because you're bad at defense doesn't mean you have a low baseball IQ. Nothing I've ever read indicated Gordon has a low baseball IQ. Sometimes people just aren't very good at parts of the game. It doesn't mean they're baseball dumb.

And again, you're wrong. He wasn't the worst defensive shortstop last year.

You are really going to try and argue against his defense? Jeter was -14.0, Alcides was -13.5, Gordon was -13.4. I guess Ryan Raburn beat him out for worst rated player in the league for WAR with his -1.5 in 66 games, to Gordon's -1.4 in 87 games.


Aren't we speaking factually here? Because if we are then yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. You can't just go into this guys thread and make false claims like he's the "worst defensive SS in baseball" when that's a false claim. You can't say that just because it sounds good. UZR has him as third worst and RZR doesn't even have him bottom 9 among SS witha min 100 innings. UZR/150 has him outside the bottom 3 as well. So looking at all those metrics, with none have him as the worst, you are wrong.

And it depends what WAR you're using. bWAR, which credits defense, has him far from the worst in the league (ironically!) while fWAR has him close but not the worst in the league. Again, just because it sounds good to say he is the worst in the league (was?) doesn't mean you can say it if you're wrong.

Either way you can't really dispute against it, he does have an extremely low baseball IQ, albeit in a small sample size of games.


I just did.

He has played just horrid D, his on base skills have been just horrendous, and his SB rates have been mediocre.


I guess Rickey Henderson and Jose Reyes and Juan Pierre all have mediocre SB rates too (80%, 80%, and 75% to Dee's 77%). Give me a break.


I'm not really going to get into a long drawn out argument against Dee Gordon and his low baseball IQ. We will just agree to disagree and spare the board numerous replies. I believe he does, you believe he does not. We will see who is right and who is wrong. You know where to find me I never leave here lol.

#254 2ndCitySox

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 05:23 PM

Given that most SS won't give you much in the HR dept or RBI dept, as long as D doesn't hit .200, he should help out. He's even more valuable in OBP leagues because most SS suck in that dept. anyway.

Buy the lotto ticket, ride the lightning, spin the wheel, punch the clown, etc.

If you need some speed, and have a blah SS, make it rain. If he is back in the minors by Sunday, well then that is that. It's not like you are dropping Miguel Cabrera to get him.
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#255 Sean-O

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 05:43 PM

"Buy the lotto ticket, ride the lightning, spin the wheel, punch the clown, etc."


No kidding. I'm not sure what all the pissing & moaning is about....

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#256 Neymar

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:03 PM

One writer on Fangraphs really likes him.

http://www.fangraphs...ome-dee-gordon/


Fixed

#257 Wombat

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:17 PM

"Buy the lotto ticket, ride the lightning, spin the wheel, punch the clown, etc."


No kidding. I'm not sure what all the pissing & moaning is about....



Pepole like Gordon are going to be the most discussed players on the boards. Nearly every competitive league someone has picked him up in the last few days. There isn't much to discuss on the outlook for Ryan Braun or something. But there's a lot of unknown with what a Dee Gordon will do.

I mean personally I go on the boards to read discussion about these kind of guys..

#258 Heartbreak

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:21 PM

Well, speaking form the "known" if you are to base that on the past 1.5 years, he can be extremely frustrating. Yes he started off good in the #8 hole, but we sruggles to get on enough to warrant a starting gig. Unless he made a 180, his OBP kills the top of that lineup. Hoping he makes improvements, but would not bet the farm. No pun.

Edited by Heartbreak, 06 May 2013 - 07:21 PM.


#259 caseyatbat

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 07:27 PM

Dee Gordon will punish all of you naysayers who call him "Dee-lite".

"I don't need Baseball IQ to get to a ball and throw it first. I know how to steal 2nd and 3rd. And guess what, my Dad Flash taught me all I needed to know about baseball. So there."

#260 2ndCitySox

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Posted 06 May 2013 - 08:24 PM


"Buy the lotto ticket, ride the lightning, spin the wheel, punch the clown, etc."


No kidding. I'm not sure what all the pissing & moaning is about....



Pepole like Gordon are going to be the most discussed players on the boards. Nearly every competitive league someone has picked him up in the last few days. There isn't much to discuss on the outlook for Ryan Braun or something. But there's a lot of unknown with what a Dee Gordon will do.

I mean personally I go on the boards to read discussion about these kind of guys..


I think his point was that people get a little too combative about some players
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SP- Orel Herschiser
SP- Greg Maddux
SP- Roger Clemens
SP- BlackJack McDowell

RP- Eck