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Josh Willingham 2013 Outlook


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#1 Greenline

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 02:15 PM

He's always had the power and he seems to really like in in Minnesota. I don't know if we can bet on a repeat though but he should be good for the bombs and RBI again. He K's too much though I think to hit for a decent BA.

#2 jsp2014

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 02:54 PM

I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#3 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:01 PM

I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.
FREE JOSH GORDON......THREAD


-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.

#4 jsp2014

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:06 PM


I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.

Edited by jsp2014, 02 January 2013 - 03:08 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#5 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:15 PM



I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.
FREE JOSH GORDON......THREAD


-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.

#6 jsp2014

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:22 PM




I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).

Edited by jsp2014, 02 January 2013 - 03:24 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#7 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:24 PM





I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).


are they always 3 year averages? Or just because Target field has been there for 3 years? What would the other pages use?

Great site btw def going to figure this out and exploit these. Maybe I'll even do a report and post it here.

Edited by brockpapersizer, 02 January 2013 - 03:29 PM.

FREE JOSH GORDON......THREAD


-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.

#8 jsp2014

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:33 PM






I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).


are they always 3 year averages? Or just because Target field has been there for 3 years? What would the other pages use?



I think they use some sort of weighted average. it might not go past 3 years anyway. I think each source uses their own slightly different method. if you look at different park factors on different sites, you'll noticed they vary.

there are a lot of problems with park factors but the main three I know of: (1) it's a moving target. sometimes teams move the walls, add some seats in foul territory, etc. and the weather (temperature, humidity, wind) is constantly changing as well. (2) it's nearly impossible to isolate out the exact effect of this park and compare it to the average park. at best, it is an approximation. (3) the sample sizes are relatively smaller, once you start slicing and dicing it up to make splits, you are making smaller samples and are subject to an even greater margin of error.

Edited by jsp2014, 02 January 2013 - 03:34 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#9 brockpapersizer

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Posted 02 January 2013 - 03:43 PM







I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).


are they always 3 year averages? Or just because Target field has been there for 3 years? What would the other pages use?



I think they use some sort of weighted average. it might not go past 3 years anyway. I think each source uses their own slightly different method. if you look at different park factors on different sites, you'll noticed they vary.

there are a lot of problems with park factors but the main three I know of: (1) it's a moving target. sometimes teams move the walls, add some seats in foul territory, etc. and the weather (temperature, humidity, wind) is constantly changing as well. (2) it's nearly impossible to isolate out the exact effect of this park and compare it to the average park. at best, it is an approximation. (3) the sample sizes are relatively smaller, once you start slicing and dicing it up to make splits, you are making smaller samples and are subject to an even greater margin of error.


I agree with a lot of what you said until splits, especially for fantasy purposes. Too often parks get labeled hitter or pitchers parks, but in truth parks play pretty different depending on where in the park you hit. Breaking it down by splits is way more efficient of using park factors to establish fantasy value than not. It's not that you draft a player because of it, but you find avoids and sleeper targets better. Morneau is someone I would probably never draft again just based on this. Those homestands just destroy you. While Willingham isn't someone I would reach for, but if I needed power and he was available I would not shy away from him even in the slightest because he plays at Target.

Looking at this further team like Cleveland has a 74 for R and 121 for L. Kinda makes me want to shy away from Santana as a top 5 catcher and Reynolds altogether.
FREE JOSH GORDON......THREAD


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#10 Chef Man

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 02:32 PM

Anyone else think Willingham is great value for his 126 ADP?
10 team. 1/2 point PPR.

QB: Brees
WR: Calvin
WR: Cobb
RB: Gore
RB: Sproles
TE: Gronk
FLEX: Maclin
DEF: Seattle
K: Gostkowski

BN: T.Y. Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Josh Gordon, T-Rich, Darren McFadden, Kyle Rudolph

#11 Chef Man

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 03:05 PM

I mean, let's say you get JW at pick 125. He produces 90% of what he did in 2012, and we should be doing cartwheels, right?
10 team. 1/2 point PPR.

QB: Brees
WR: Calvin
WR: Cobb
RB: Gore
RB: Sproles
TE: Gronk
FLEX: Maclin
DEF: Seattle
K: Gostkowski

BN: T.Y. Hilton, Kelvin Benjamin, Josh Gordon, T-Rich, Darren McFadden, Kyle Rudolph

#12 abrunn11

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 04:33 PM





I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).


I think Bautisa's 10 HR's in 10 games has skewed this number slightly.
12-Team Mixed
C: Mike Napoli
1B: Chris Davis
2B: Ben Zobrist
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Chase Headley
OF: Ryan Braun
OF: Justin Upton
OF: Jason Heyward
UTIL: Ben Revere
UTIL: Ichiro Suzuki
DL: Mark Teixeira
DL: Corey Hart
SP: Gio Gonzalez, RA Dickey, Hisashi Iwakuma, Tim Hudson, Ryan Dempster, Stream
RP: Addison Reed, Rafael Betancourt, Edward Mujica

#13 jscott26

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 07:32 AM








I have always liked the guy, but a 30+ year old coming off a career year is almost certainly going to be overvalued come draft season.

30/100 is reasonable, but he doesn't steal bases and he's a batting average liability: .261 career hitter (.260 last year). then throw in that he plays in a pitchers park and on a horrific offense, and that he's injury prone, and it's just too unlikely to me that he returns anywhere near the value for where you'll have to draft him.


Pitchers park aspect is overrated. Target field plays awful for lefties which and gets a lot of bad credibility because two former MVPs (mauer and morneau)BOTH LEFTIES have had severe power outages since the switch to target.

Tyler Plouffe and Josh Willingham on the other hand raked. The park plays fairly average if not slightly above for right handed power hitters.

I was thinking about making a thread specifically for over/undervalued parks based on R o L handed hitting.


fair point. there is a site I really like but I can't remember the name... I think it is similar to 'baseball corner' and it has detailed splits and their logo is pi I think? do you know the site I'm referring to? I can't find it.

the other points still stand though.


edit: statcorner! http://statcorner.co...m=142&year=2012

you are right, that according to this it is slightly above average for righties.


I really dont even know how to read those stats.



all you really need to know is that 100 is average. so HR vs. RHB, Target Field (and there is ALWAYS a margin of error with these stats because of weather, SSS, etc. and esp with a 3 year old park), it has a 103. Willingham should hit ~3% more HRs at Target Field than he would at a completely neutral park for righties. and a team full of righties would score 3% more runs than at a neutral park (runs factor is also 103).


are they always 3 year averages? Or just because Target field has been there for 3 years? What would the other pages use?



I think they use some sort of weighted average. it might not go past 3 years anyway. I think each source uses their own slightly different method. if you look at different park factors on different sites, you'll noticed they vary.

there are a lot of problems with park factors but the main three I know of: (1) it's a moving target. sometimes teams move the walls, add some seats in foul territory, etc. and the weather (temperature, humidity, wind) is constantly changing as well. (2) it's nearly impossible to isolate out the exact effect of this park and compare it to the average park. at best, it is an approximation. (3) the sample sizes are relatively smaller, once you start slicing and dicing it up to make splits, you are making smaller samples and are subject to an even greater margin of error.


I agree with a lot of what you said until splits, especially for fantasy purposes. Too often parks get labeled hitter or pitchers parks, but in truth parks play pretty different depending on where in the park you hit. Breaking it down by splits is way more efficient of using park factors to establish fantasy value than not. It's not that you draft a player because of it, but you find avoids and sleeper targets better. Morneau is someone I would probably never draft again just based on this. Those homestands just destroy you. While Willingham isn't someone I would reach for, but if I needed power and he was available I would not shy away from him even in the slightest because he plays at Target.

Looking at this further team like Cleveland has a 74 for R and 121 for L. Kinda makes me want to shy away from Santana as a top 5 catcher and Reynolds altogether.


Didn't expect such quality analysis for a Willingham thread. The Statcorner website is legit. His home/away splits last year are night and day, the park is definitely helping him.

He is sliding too far in Yahoo! drafts (ADP 126 via FantasyPros). Needless to say I was more than happy to scoop him in the 16th round (156th overall) in a H2H draft yesterday.

Folks might look at his K rates and lower average and pick somebody else like Victorino or Nelson Cruz, but you look closer and see that he just takes a lot of pitches (4.21 P/PA). This translates into his often unnoticed ability to draw walks (76 last year with .366 OBP). Combine that with his power (.524 SLG w/ .264 ISO last year) and you realize he makes up for the .260 average, and then some.

Should we expect a repeat of last year? No. He'll regress a little perhaps, but not much. I think it's very reasonable to expect 30 HR, 100 RBI, 80 R if he stays healthy, while hovering around his career .260/.360/.480. For H2H leagues, I'd take him somewhere around the 10th or 11th rounds and a round or two earlier for roto.
10 Team H2H categories, Keep any 5

Hitting: R, H, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG, OPS
Pitching:  W, CG, SHO, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB, QS, NH, PG

C- Y. Molina
1B- E. Hosmer
2B- R. Cano
3B- A. Ramirez
SS- I. Desmond
OF- M. Trout
OF- B. Harper
OF- J. Werth
Util- A. Rod (3B)
Util- K. Morales (1B)

SP-   C. Kershaw, M. Bumgarner, Y. Darvish, D. Fister, J. Lackey, K. Lohse, I. Kennedy, S. Kazmir, Miguel Gonzalez
RP-   J. Nathan, G. Holland, M. Melancon, K. Gregg

#14 Djop20

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 08:43 AM

I think he presents great value where he is being drafted especially in OBP leagues.

The 30hr+ power should certainly be there and you have to love the walk rate 12% last year. He is also very good about not swinging at junk; his o-swing% is consistently in the low 20% range and even dipped into the high teens when he played for the nationals.

#15 gbill2004

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 03:44 PM

Off to a slow start...
Competitive start 2 QB, 0.5 PPR, 12 team H2H deep re-draft league, all TDs = 6 pts. Roster below (starting spots in brackets):

QB (2) - Tony Romo, Colin Kaepernick, Shaun Hill, Michael Vick, Johnny Manziel
RB/FLEX (2) - DeMarco Murray, Doug Martin, Zac Stacy, Jeremy Miller, Carlos Hyde, Mark Ingram, Knile Davis
WR (4) - Calvin Johnson, Alshon Jeffrey, Michael Crabtree, Victor Cruz, TY Hilton
TE (2) - Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett, Austin Seferian-Jenkins
K (2) - Shayne Graham, Steven Hauschka
DEF (2) - Cleveland, New Orleans
IDP (4) - Lavonte David, Jared Mayo, Alec Ogletree, Curtis Lofton

#16 ballfan4141

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 07:47 AM

homerun. can he match last years state or close.

#17 RockHarder7420

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Posted 26 April 2013 - 07:49 AM

yes
12 team 9 cat - h2h

PG - Damian Lillard , Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas , Patrick Beverly  

SG- Evan Turner,  Jeff Green

SF- Luol Deng , DeMarre Carroll , Wilson Chandler

PF- Serg Ibaka , LMA

C- Andrew Bogut , JV

#18 mendozalineup

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 04:56 PM

Another bomb - keep it up!

#19 SuperJoint

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Posted 03 May 2013 - 07:17 PM

Fri, May 3
Josh Willingham is out of the Twins' lineup Friday against the Indians.
Advice: The Twins didn't play Thursday, but manager Ron Gardenhire wants to give Willingham another day of rest. Ryan Doumit will serve as the DH on Friday while Oswaldo Arcia will play left field.
More: Rhett Bollinger on Twitter

As Dr. Whom would say: emo
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#20 bturn10

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Posted 08 May 2013 - 08:24 PM

13 runs and Willingham doesn't have a hit tonight, so frustrating! Please get it goin soon..
12 Team H2H League

C - Salvador Perez
1B - Victor Martinez
2B - Daniel Murphy
3B - Pablo Sandoval
SS - Ian Desmond
OF - Mike Trout / Yasiel Puig / Hunter Pence / Alex Gordon
Util - Adrian Gonzalez / Corey Dickerson
BN - Christian Yelich, AJ Pollock, Ryan Zimmerman


SP - Chris Sale / Gio Gonzalez / Mat Latos / Jered Weaver / Kyle Lohse / Hiroki Kuroda / Ian Kennedy / Mike Leake
RP - Dellin Betances / Joaquin Benoit / Pat Neshek