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Ike Davis 2013 OutlookValue pick after pitiful BA in 2012?


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#341 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:36 AM

View PostNyMetsfan5, on 25 June 2013 - 09:32 AM, said:

Yea it was just a speculative sort of thing. That short porch would do ike a world of good though. I agree though. The mets are set at Sp for a long time. We just need the bats

You can't send balls into the short porch if you can't make contact. Also facing the Rays, Red Sox, Jays, and Orioles all year isn't going to help Ike because they have a ton of pitchers who can pitch circles around the majority of NL East pitchers. The lefties in the AL East are serious business.

I think Mets fans view Ike Davis a certain way and baseball fans view him an entirely different way. Ike Davis hasn't built any clout. Ike Davis is a lesser version of Chris Carter. Ike Davis goes to sleep at night wishing he was Brandon Moss. I think the investment (4-6th round pick) is what has a lot of guys hanging on to him.

#342 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:37 AM

Hughes will probably be a free agent this offseason, no way do I trade for him when I can get him without losing any prospects in the offseason
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#343 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:42 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:34 AM, said:

View Postyoda, on 25 June 2013 - 09:32 AM, said:

View PostNoClownQuestionsBro, on 25 June 2013 - 09:29 AM, said:

Depends on your definition of solid. I think he had a great second half but aside from his power numbers, he's been highly mediocre.

Aside from the second half of 2012, Ike was having a great season before getting hurt in 2011 and very solid in 2010.

Yes he's had success in the bigs, he's just looked downright awful this year.  He can turn it around IMO.  Whether he will or not is up in the air but he's shown he can be a big time fantasy producer.

Well here's what I see: A guy who had a pretty good rookie year, but nothing too crazy. An injury plagued second year, an unbalanced third year, and a God awful fourth year. Turns into a : .239/.323 .756 OPS career line with 63 homers in 394 games. His 162 game average is 26 homers.

Chris Carter, who was and might still be, on waiver wires: .222/.313 .755 OPS with 34 homers in 179 games. 31 homers per 162 games.

He hasn't done more than Chris Carter in my eyes, really.

Edited by NoClownQuestionsBro, 25 June 2013 - 09:43 AM.


#344 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:46 AM

View PostNoClownQuestionsBro, on 25 June 2013 - 09:42 AM, said:

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:34 AM, said:

View Postyoda, on 25 June 2013 - 09:32 AM, said:

View PostNoClownQuestionsBro, on 25 June 2013 - 09:29 AM, said:

Depends on your definition of solid. I think he had a great second half but aside from his power numbers, he's been highly mediocre.

Aside from the second half of 2012, Ike was having a great season before getting hurt in 2011 and very solid in 2010.

Yes he's had success in the bigs, he's just looked downright awful this year.  He can turn it around IMO.  Whether he will or not is up in the air but he's shown he can be a big time fantasy producer.

Well here's what I see: A guy who had a pretty good rookie year, but nothing too crazy. An injury plagued second year, an unbalanced third year, and a God awful fourth year. Turns into a : .239/.323 .756 OPS career line with 63 homers in 394 games. His 162 game average is 26 homers.

Chris Carter, who was and might still be, on waiver wires: .222/.313 .755 OPS with 34 homers in 179 games. 31 homers per 162 games.

He hasn't done more than Chris Carter in my eyes, really.

Chris Carter has never hit 30 homeruns in a year, he's never hit above .239 in a season.  Ike has done a lot more than Carter and they are the same age.  Could Carter hit 30 bombs this year? Sure, he's on pace to do it.  But I want to see him prove he can do it and I want to see him hit for a remotely decent average while doing it.
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#345 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:51 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:46 AM, said:

Chris Carter has never hit 30 homeruns in a year, he's never hit above .239 in a season.  Ike has done a lot more than Carter and they are the same age.  Could Carter hit 30 bombs this year? Sure, he's on pace to do it.  But I want to see him prove he can do it and I want to see him hit for a remotely decent average while doing it.

I think you're attributing far too much value to a counting stat. I think rate statistics are far more valuable in this case, considering Chris Carter has never been on a team bad enough to give him consistent playing time until this year. Ike Davis has always been on bad teams, so of course the opportunity was there.

Again, if you're discussing the player for fantasy purposes, Ike Davis is no more valuable than Chris Carter. Actually, I would argue, that since Ike Davis is toiling away in AAA, Chris Carter has significantly more value than Ike Davis. They're very comparable players with comparable skill-sets. Their career numbers are almost identical. Carter has possessed slightly more power actually.

So I think the love affair a lot of people have with Ike is pretty misguided. What do you love? His power? Go get Chris Carter. That's really all there is to love about Ike Davis.

Edited by NoClownQuestionsBro, 25 June 2013 - 09:51 AM.


#346 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:51 AM

Chris Carter's K rate is also astronomical.  I think you are de-valuaing Ike and his potential a bit too harshly.
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#347 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:54 AM

Ike hit 264 his rookie year, was at 302 before getting hurt in 2011, 2012 he was terrible for 2 and a half months because of that virus, he mashed in the second half.  This year he's brutal again.  I don't see how their careers are comparable to this point.
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#348 NyMetsfan5

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:56 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:54 AM, said:

Ike hit 264 his rookie year, was at 302 before getting hurt in 2011, 2012 he was terrible for 2 and a half months because of that virus, he mashed in the second half.  This year he's brutal again.  I don't see how their careers are comparable to this point.
they really arent. Hes just looking at strictly hr numbers and thier season averages.  Hes not taking any other factors into account
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#349 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 09:59 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:51 AM, said:

Chris Carter's K rate is also astronomical.  I think you are de-valuaing Ike and his potential a bit too harshly.

What potential? Scouting reports on Ike Davis read "he should produce average run production with above-average defense at the big league level." (http://mets.scout.com/2/933358.html). I'm no de-valuing Ike. If anything, you're over-valuing him. Chris Carter certainly strikes out a ton so in K leagues you go with the lesser of two evils (Ike Davis who also strikes out a ton). But in non-K leagues? Chris Carter should give you comparable (if not more) power.

This year, looking at Ike Davis's 2013 Season Outlook, it's very bleak and long term Chris Carter is probably the better bet to give you more production.

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:54 AM, said:

Ike hit 264 his rookie year, was at 302 before getting hurt in 2011, 2012 he was terrible for 2 and a half months because of that virus, he mashed in the second half.  This year he's brutal again.  I don't see how their careers are comparable to this point.

Yes I've heard the virus story countless times already. You give him the benefit of the doubt, until you realize he probably would have sucked anyway because he's an awful hitter. Their careers are not comparable, but their rate statistics certainly are and their production over 162 games certainly is as well.

Remember, Chris Carter was never really on awful teams like Ike was so playing time wasn't there for him. Now in Houston, he's giving you a typical Ike Davis season.

I think the love for Ike is fueled by a solid rookie campaign, which thousands of players throughout history have pulled off, and that's not enough for me to give him the benefit of the doubt. Plenty of guys fail. Ike is showing that he's not a major league hitter right now.

#350 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:00 AM

View PostNyMetsfan5, on 25 June 2013 - 09:56 AM, said:

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 09:54 AM, said:

Ike hit 264 his rookie year, was at 302 before getting hurt in 2011, 2012 he was terrible for 2 and a half months because of that virus, he mashed in the second half.  This year he's brutal again.  I don't see how their careers are comparable to this point.
they really arent. Hes just looking at strictly hr numbers and thier season averages.  Hes not taking any other factors into account

That's unfair. Their batting average, on base percentage, and power numbers are comparable. Ike Davis is a stronger defender. Essentially that's what we're looking at for fantasy purposes, no?

#351 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:00 AM

What about his great second half last season?  Does that not matter?
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#352 NoClownQuestionsBro

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:17 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 10:00 AM, said:

What about his great second half last season?  Does that not matter?

Of course it does which is why I said you stash him and see if he turns it around. But even Ike Davis at his best is essentially, what, a little better than Chris Carter?

I think we have to find a middle ground with Ike. He's not the guy from that second half and he's not the awful hitter he was to start the season - the middle ground is pretty much Chris Carter with less K's.

If he does turn it around, he's still very young, that's awesome. That's why you stash him. But if that's your expectation you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Lots of players get hot. Lots of players cool off and stay cold.

#353 Neymar

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:40 AM

Agree with NCQB in that Ike pretty much had zero pedigree and basically came out of nowhere.  In not saying this will happen, and I hope it doesn't, but don't be surprised if Ike never gets above replacement level again.

And yeah...you take Hughes for Davis, IMO.

#354 Neymar

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:42 AM

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 10:00 AM, said:

What about his great second half last season?  Does that not matter?

Anybody can get hot for a few months, especially at the end of the season when you are facing a lot of callups and players whose teams are out of it.

#355 Chubbles

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:51 AM

Couple that second half with a solid rookie season and a hot start to his sophomore campaign and there is reason to think there is something there.  We'll see what he can do with it.
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#356 jradMIT

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:53 AM

So he is not going to get the call this week?

#357 placeholder

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 10:59 AM

Might be this weekend.
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#358 Denbo32

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 11:07 AM

Aren't the mets facing a ton of lefty this week?

#359 ldphifty

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 11:11 AM

View PostNeymar, on 25 June 2013 - 10:40 AM, said:

Agree with NCQB in that Ike pretty much had zero pedigree and basically came out of nowhere.  In not saying this will happen, and I hope it doesn't, but don't be surprised if Ike never gets above replacement level again.

And yeah...you take Hughes for Davis, IMO.

Baseball America attention since his frosh year. Broke all types of Az State records. First team all american. First round pick.

if you are looking for a literal term for pedigree... his dad was in the majors

Edited by ldphifty, 25 June 2013 - 11:14 AM.


#360 doog71

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Posted 25 June 2013 - 01:40 PM

View PostNeymar, on 25 June 2013 - 10:42 AM, said:

View PostChubbles, on 25 June 2013 - 10:00 AM, said:

What about his great second half last season?  Does that not matter?

Anybody can get hot for a few months, especially at the end of the season when you are facing a lot of callups and players whose teams are out of it.

"Anybody" can hit 20 HR in 251 AB? Wow, guess it's a lot easier to hit HR in the majors than I thought.

Ike is only 26 and still figuring things out. He has monster power. One of these days, sooner rather than later, he's going to put it together like Chris Davis did last year and this year. Those that have been patient will be rewarded.
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