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Torn on last two keepers...League just expanded


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#1 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 04:04 PM

So sorry for the ramblings that are sure to follow but its the different scenarios going around in my mind, Im just about done with my prep for each position and just found out our league is expanding to 15 teams.

Roto League Mixed 15 Teams 5x5: 23 Active spots (standard set up 2 Catchers, 5OF, 9 Pitchers, CI, MI)

Cap $130 you get 11 Keepers
There will be 2 teams in an expansion draft who get pickins from what you dont keep, so decent value guys who you normally might think "throw him back and get him about same price" might not work.

I have 9 Keepers Im pretty committed to: Posey, V Mart © Wright, Headley, Hanley, Harper, Latos Chapman Reed - total cost $56
Cap Room remaining: $74

Optons and thoughts:

Oscar Tavares $1 - With 13 teams I felt good about him as pretty much a no brainer but now that weve gone to 15 and I look at what OF are there to replace him when in all likelihood he starts the season in the minors its not good AND in our league there is big risk with this because the two are tied together and you cant just add/drop because a guy sucks.  There is a limited waiver wire, but you waive the replacement because he stinks, you waive Tavares.

Brandon Phillips $13 - Again moving to 15 teams really makes you commit to certain positions.  I can keep a guy like Phillips for $13, Cano will be in the auction but he will be a $25+ guy and Im not sure I have full cap room to make that happen.  Rickie Weeks will be in the auction who I like some on a bounceback, but if the timing is bad and position is think he could be more costly than Phillips.  Really torn here because it would be nice to go into a 15-teamer only needing 1 guy at MI so can go SS or 2B and just wait for best value.  If it appears he has job, this is a no-brainer but without job is major risk.

Brett Anderson $4 - despite injuries I like him a lot and I really think I will be committing most of resources to my outfield and offense so having another solid starter at a good value I think makes sense.

Dayan Viciedo $3 Love his power and potential, at 13- owners or even if we regressed some I was planning to throw back but now at 15-owners, he is on my radar big time.

Brandon Belt $1 - I think the 1B depth is pretty good right now, although the league is littered with Giant fans and I probably wont get him back for a $1, I think other guys on tier I can get back for a buck or two.  I think he will be good and could be top 2-3 1B in terms of stolen bases but I worry about Runs because he will likely hit 5th or 6th and the back of their line up stinks.  

Others who are on outside looking in at this point:
Tommy Milone $2
Nolan Arenado $2 (changes if he has hot spring at Rox 3B job)
Gary Brown $1 (see Arenado)
Andrew Bailey $1 was consideration before JH trade and comments

If I had to go tomorrow and it looked like Tavares DID NOT have a job, I would go Phillips and Anderson or Viciedo who I think are the best two players.  Would hurt the cap the most, but I think would give me a really good 11 and a lot of production in the bank.  


I know its a ramble, but I just wanted to give you my thoughts rather than just sticking names there...

WHIR
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#2 jb_power

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 04:19 PM

I'm not a big Brandon Phillips fan and think he's overpriced at $13 for a $130 cap.  I think you could get slightly less production from Neil Walker for a lot less money.  I'd go with Brett Anderson (he has to stay healthy one of these years!) and Brandon Belt for $1 (a lot of upside if he gets 90% playing time).

#3 W74

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 04:34 PM

Anderson looks like a solid choice. I would probably go with Taveras (if you want to risk it) or Belt for some cheap solid production.

#4 baltimore_boy

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 06:12 PM

I view Phillips as overrated. I don't think he is what he once was and there are better options out there. I'd rank them as Anderson, Arenado/Taveras (if either of them get a starting job), then Belt. Anderson is a great pitcher that can be a stud this year. I like Arenado and Taveras' potential over Belt if either of them get a full time job. If both of them miss out during the spring, then Belt. He's about even with Viciedo but comes at a cheaper price.
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#5 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 06:25 PM

View Postjb_power, on 04 January 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

I'm not a big Brandon Phillips fan and think he's overpriced at $13 for a $130 cap.  I think you could get slightly less production from Neil Walker for a lot less money.  I'd go with Brett Anderson (he has to stay healthy one of these years!) and Brandon Belt for $1 (a lot of upside if he gets 90% playing time).
I dont disagree with you guys on Phillips let me just say this:

Hill, Kipnis, Walker, Profar, Utley, Gyorko, Ackley, Altuve, Zobrist, Espinosa and Rutledge (though not a 2B in our league) will all be keepers on the other 14 teams.   Were a 20-game requirement so Seager doesnt qualify.  Possibly Uggla and my guess is he doesnt make it through expansion draft, perhaps neither will Phillips.  

That will leave:
Cano, Pedroia Weeks and Kinsler in a 15-team league with all of those other guys gone.  
Cano will be $25+
Pedrioa and Kinsler I would estimate at 15-22.

So would you rather have Pedrioa or Kinsler at 18 than Phillips at 13?  Or hope that you get Rickie Weeks on value because all the other guys you guys like and so do I where you think the value is, they are long gone.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#6 baltimore_boy

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:05 PM

View Postparrothead, on 04 January 2013 - 06:25 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 04 January 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

I'm not a big Brandon Phillips fan and think he's overpriced at $13 for a $130 cap.  I think you could get slightly less production from Neil Walker for a lot less money.  I'd go with Brett Anderson (he has to stay healthy one of these years!) and Brandon Belt for $1 (a lot of upside if he gets 90% playing time).
I dont disagree with you guys on Phillips let me just say this:

Hill, Kipnis, Walker, Profar, Utley, Gyorko, Ackley, Altuve, Zobrist, Espinosa and Rutledge (though not a 2B in our league) will all be keepers on the other 14 teams.   Were a 20-game requirement so Seager doesnt qualify.  Possibly Uggla and my guess is he doesnt make it through expansion draft, perhaps neither will Phillips.  

That will leave:
Cano, Pedroia Weeks and Kinsler in a 15-team league with all of those other guys gone.  
Cano will be $25+
Pedrioa and Kinsler I would estimate at 15-22.

So would you rather have Pedrioa or Kinsler at 18 than Phillips at 13?  Or hope that you get Rickie Weeks on value because all the other guys you guys like and so do I where you think the value is, they are long gone.

If all the other teams all keep 2B, then wouldn't that lower the prices of the second basemen? I also don't see either Scutaro or Murphy on that list of keepers. These guys won't wow you with their stats, but they are consistent and can fill the second base hole for you. I also don't have a problem with Weeks. Milwaukee is still a solid lineup and he should be better this year. I wouldn't keep Phillips. I'd see what the market is for 2B before making a decision. I'm in an auction league too and I really never know what someone will go for until the first one is taken. My guess is that either Pedroia or Kinsler will go for below that price because teams will already be set at second. I'd throw Phillips back in and see what happens.
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#7 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:24 PM

View Postbaltimore_boy, on 04 January 2013 - 07:05 PM, said:

View Postparrothead, on 04 January 2013 - 06:25 PM, said:

View Postjb_power, on 04 January 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

I'm not a big Brandon Phillips fan and think he's overpriced at $13 for a $130 cap.  I think you could get slightly less production from Neil Walker for a lot less money.  I'd go with Brett Anderson (he has to stay healthy one of these years!) and Brandon Belt for $1 (a lot of upside if he gets 90% playing time).
I dont disagree with you guys on Phillips let me just say this:

Hill, Kipnis, Walker, Profar, Utley, Gyorko, Ackley, Altuve, Zobrist, Espinosa and Rutledge (though not a 2B in our league) will all be keepers on the other 14 teams.   Were a 20-game requirement so Seager doesnt qualify.  Possibly Uggla and my guess is he doesnt make it through expansion draft, perhaps neither will Phillips.  

That will leave:
Cano, Pedroia Weeks and Kinsler in a 15-team league with all of those other guys gone.  
Cano will be $25+
Pedrioa and Kinsler I would estimate at 15-22.

So would you rather have Pedrioa or Kinsler at 18 than Phillips at 13?  Or hope that you get Rickie Weeks on value because all the other guys you guys like and so do I where you think the value is, they are long gone.

If all the other teams all keep 2B, then wouldn't that lower the prices of the second basemen? I also don't see either Scutaro or Murphy on that list of keepers. These guys won't wow you with their stats, but they are consistent and can fill the second base hole for you. I also don't have a problem with Weeks. Milwaukee is still a solid lineup and he should be better this year. I wouldn't keep Phillips. I'd see what the market is for 2B before making a decision. I'm in an auction league too and I really never know what someone will go for until the first one is taken. My guess is that either Pedroia or Kinsler will go for below that price because teams will already be set at second. I'd throw Phillips back in and see what happens.
Scutaro will be a keeper, probably at SS where someone owns him for $1.
Its a 15-team league with 2b-SS-MI thats 45 guys out of the middle, you figure at least half of those are 2B, which is generally thought of as the stronger position so to be safe, lets say its 25-20.  2B.
There are 10 2B listed up there, that means another 15 need to go.

Brandon Phillips went for $18 in 2011 and $13 last year both in 13-team leagues, now the league expands to 15 owners.  Look, I dont love Brandon Phillips, he has had slight decline year in and year out the last few years, not major just seemingly slight each year, but I dont want to be in a situation in the auction where I overpay for someone because they are the last guy left and be kicking myself that I should of just kept BP and then end up having to pay $8 or 10 for Beckham or Murphy.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#8 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 07:37 PM

Here is the other angle I didnt mention because I really didnt want to go down the road, David Wright is $18.  I think he is a little bit pricey but love the guy as a 5-category stud at 3B and think he is gonna have monster season, would love him at 14-16, but this is a guy who has gone for over $30 in our auction and if I let him go, he isnt coming back for under 20.

But the fact I have Headley and I also own Moustakas for $2 who I didnt put on the list because I wasnt going to fill up 3B and UT.  But...would you throw back Wright, keep Phillips and Moustakas.

So that would then be:
VMart, Posey, Headley, Moustakas, Ramirez, Phillips, Harper, Latos, Chapman, Anderson, Reed - total cost: $61 leaving me $69 and really no worries up the middle.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#9 jb_power

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:34 PM

I'd throw Phillips back into the pool with the plan to call him out early in the auction.  If you can get him for cheap (assuming Pedoria and Kinsler have yet to be called) then all is good for you at 2B.  If not save a few bucks elsewhere and target Pedroia who I think will have a big year in 2013.

#10 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 08:41 PM

View Postjb_power, on 04 January 2013 - 08:34 PM, said:

I'd throw Phillips back into the pool with the plan to call him out early in the auction.  If you can get him for cheap (assuming Pedoria and Kinsler have yet to be called) then all is good for you at 2B.  If not save a few bucks elsewhere and target Pedroia who I think will have a big year in 2013.
thanks for the input, if I dont keep Phillips, Im sure he wont get passed the Expansion draft where they have to fill keepers with our leftovers.  There are 22 to be taken max, he is probably taken, especially with MI issues but you never know.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#11 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 01:58 AM

I've played in a 15-team Mixed Auction the last 2 years, it's pretty deep, especially at OF.  With 15 teams, 5 starters, plus a decent amount of extra OF's who get put at DH or qualify at additional IF positions where they are more often used by teams -- the OF tends to dry up really quickly.  

Tavares is a stud, but I don't think he gets to the show until September unless he's going bonkers in his first stint in AAA & someone gets seriously injured midseason.


Vicedo is a 100% lock at $3 for me there -- 23 years old, first full year in the Majors .255-25-78 with respectable strike out rate -- just doesn't walk at all, he's gonna be like Vlad Guerrero when he gets a little better.  I think he's gonna up around .270 this year with 30-90 potential.  That's pretty good for $3 and you need some OF depth.



Not sold on Belt's power yet, and like you said he's got some run scoring issues due to protection.  On one side, he's gonna have decent RBI opps driving in Posey/Panda, but he's gonna need to be running a lot to get in scoring position to eke out 60 runs.

One of the Expansion teams will snag Phillips for sure, With 15 teams the middle infield gets UG-LY FAST, I'd sit on Phillips for a slightly inflated number, but in a Keeper League the value saved at many Keeper player salaries drives up the price of many others new players -- there's no reason you can't bypass getting that inflated player in the auction by just keeping him outright.

I go Phillips / Viciedo here, and you've got a much more solid base to your MI and OF and still have a decent amount of money to fill out a decent OF and pitching staff.

#12 parrothead

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:46 AM

View PostRespectMyAuthority, on 05 January 2013 - 01:58 AM, said:

I've played in a 15-team Mixed Auction the last 2 years, it's pretty deep, especially at OF.  With 15 teams, 5 starters, plus a decent amount of extra OF's who get put at DH or qualify at additional IF positions where they are more often used by teams -- the OF tends to dry up really quickly.  

Tavares is a stud, but I don't think he gets to the show until September unless he's going bonkers in his first stint in AAA & someone gets seriously injured midseason.


Vicedo is a 100% lock at $3 for me there -- 23 years old, first full year in the Majors .255-25-78 with respectable strike out rate -- just doesn't walk at all, he's gonna be like Vlad Guerrero when he gets a little better.  I think he's gonna up around .270 this year with 30-90 potential.  That's pretty good for $3 and you need some OF depth.



Not sold on Belt's power yet, and like you said he's got some run scoring issues due to protection.  On one side, he's gonna have decent RBI opps driving in Posey/Panda, but he's gonna need to be running a lot to get in scoring position to eke out 60 runs.

One of the Expansion teams will snag Phillips for sure, With 15 teams the middle infield gets UG-LY FAST, I'd sit on Phillips for a slightly inflated number, but in a Keeper League the value saved at many Keeper player salaries drives up the price of many others new players -- there's no reason you can't bypass getting that inflated player in the auction by just keeping him outright.

I go Phillips / Viciedo here, and you've got a much more solid base to your MI and OF and still have a decent amount of money to fill out a decent OF and pitching staff.
Thanks, yes its amazing how thin these positions get with 15 owners.  I'm just in the process of wrapping up my of list and when you figure you are going 80 deep and 5+ will be used elsewhere it gets pretty ugly pretty fast.  It's wired this year too how few DH are of or have of eligibility.  

It will be interesting to see how owners adapt because taking a guy in minors was becoming very trendy trying to get that great keeper a year in advance, but now the replacement pool stinks.  But if I'm stuck at end of night for a buck on Juan Pierre, I might as well go a brown or Tavares type and pick up Juan Pierre as the replacement
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about