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Brandon Belt 2013 OutlookWill he or wont he finally breakout?


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#1 ChrisFarley

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 09:31 PM

It appears (fingers crossed - damn Bruce Bochy), Brandon Belt will be the everyday 1B for the San Francisco Giants.  He didn't have a fantasy noteworthy season in 2012 (.275/.360/.421 with only 7 homers in 400 ABs).  However, he did show some flashes during the season that showed off the potential people were raving about when he was tearing up the minors (career milb: .343/.457/.596).

June: .296/.400/.563
Aug:  .349/.411/.477
Sept: .316/.365/.532

Unfortunately, the Giants home park is not good for lefty hitters, so I don't think he will ever be a 30 homer 1B.  However, am I delusional into thinking that one day (hopefully soon), Brandon Belt will develop into a .300 18-20 HR bat?

I think he's shown us the potential for it.

#2 LyondellBasell

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:39 PM

i would be shocked if he hits 20.
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#3 parrothead

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 11:04 PM

I was watching a game last year and he hit two balls than another foot combined he has himself a 2HR game.  That park and the big alley in RF is just brutal on lefties, I own him for a $1 in my 130 cap league, its a 15-team league so no doubt he will get drafted but he wont crack my keeper list.  

Positives:
1. He does have power and I think as he matures the HR total will go up, in 2011 he had a strong HR per AB stretch in the second half.
2. He was a 20-20 guy in the minors and could me among the top 3-4 stolen base leaders for first baseman.
3. It seems he got a "clue" at some point last year and his at-bats I saw in the post season seemed like pretty good AB regardless of outcome and guys ahead of him Pablo, Pence and Posey should get on base so he should have some good RBI opps.

Negatives:
1. He will hit probably 6th in a putrid bottom 3rd of the line up that follows him is unlikely to drive him in much, while he may be among 1B leaders in SB, wouldnt surprise me to see him near bottom of runs scored for 1B and if he isnt at least hitting 20HR, could make him a liability in 2 categories and its not like he is Mark Grace hitting .320
2.  If you take him, especially at 1B you really need to structure the rest of your team to make up for power loss potential as well as runs, where normally 1B is a position that is making up for other spots.  Would actually be a good guy to pair with a Cano type, great power who doesnt steal that much.
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#4 Fantasy Fiend

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:49 AM

I would just avoid him. Stash him on your roster late in drafts at best IMO.

#5 The Ringer

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:17 PM

I think playing time will still be an issue at times unless they go back to the Belt in leftfield experiment.

Sanchez may still end up catching Lincecum and Zito for some unknown reason.  It's nice for the Giants to save Posey's legs, but Sanchez' catching skills still need a lot of work.

If that happens, then Posey will be getting 20-30 starts at first again next year and that cuts into Belt's value.

As far as a performance goes, I think he will be solid as a Util type of bat, but not a reliable corner starter on a fantasy team.  He will have a ton more value in leagues with OBP/BB/extra base hits over a standard 5x5 league.

I think he will be a .280/.370/.800 guy and post about 15 HR with 70 runs/rbi (That is okay, but replaceable off the waiver wire in most leagues that aren't more than 15 teams deep).  The runs/rbi is tough to forcast because of the batting order.  He would be a solid 2-hole guy if he could make better contact, but Bochy won't move Scutaro out of there, so that leaves Belt in the 6th hole.  If Pence is still broken next year, I could see Belt pushing him for the 5 spot.

His Home/road splits completely baffle me.  That stadium seemed to completely kill him last year power wise as I saw him hit several that would have been out of other other parks, but he totally sucked on the road and only hit .237 with 2 bombs on that road.  That is weird and speaks of confidence issues, which have been noted with Belt in that past.  Once he gets over that, and August and September may be an indication that he has, then he might explode offensively.

#6 klove42

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:30 PM

View PostThe Ringer, on 10 January 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

I think playing time will still be an issue at times unless they go back to the Belt in leftfield experiment.

Sanchez may still end up catching Lincecum and Zito for some unknown reason.  It's nice for the Giants to save Posey's legs, but Sanchez' catching skills still need a lot of work.

If that happens, then Posey will be getting 20-30 starts at first again next year and that cuts into Belt's value.

As far as a performance goes, I think he will be solid as a Util type of bat, but not a reliable corner starter on a fantasy team.  He will have a ton more value in leagues with OBP/BB/extra base hits over a standard 5x5 league.

I think he will be a .280/.370/.800 guy and post about 15 HR with 70 runs/rbi (That is okay, but replaceable off the waiver wire in most leagues that aren't more than 15 teams deep).  The runs/rbi is tough to forcast because of the batting order.  He would be a solid 2-hole guy if he could make better contact, but Bochy won't move Scutaro out of there, so that leaves Belt in the 6th hole.  If Pence is still broken next year, I could see Belt pushing him for the 5 spot.

His Home/road splits completely baffle me.  That stadium seemed to completely kill him last year power wise as I saw him hit several that would have been out of other other parks, but he totally sucked on the road and only hit .237 with 2 bombs on that road.  That is weird and speaks of confidence issues, which have been noted with Belt in that past.  Once he gets over that, and August and September may be an indication that he has, then he might explode offensively.

I agree about the playing time concerns still being there. I think at least once a week Posey will play first and Sanchez will catch. I also think he sits against lefties half of the time. I know his potential is there, but his spot in the lineup, his home ballpark, and his playing time scare me a way to much.
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#7 parrothead

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 05:55 PM

View Postklove42, on 10 January 2013 - 03:30 PM, said:

View PostThe Ringer, on 10 January 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

I think playing time will still be an issue at times unless they go back to the Belt in leftfield experiment.

Sanchez may still end up catching Lincecum and Zito for some unknown reason.  It's nice for the Giants to save Posey's legs, but Sanchez' catching skills still need a lot of work.

If that happens, then Posey will be getting 20-30 starts at first again next year and that cuts into Belt's value.

As far as a performance goes, I think he will be solid as a Util type of bat, but not a reliable corner starter on a fantasy team.  He will have a ton more value in leagues with OBP/BB/extra base hits over a standard 5x5 league.

I think he will be a .280/.370/.800 guy and post about 15 HR with 70 runs/rbi (That is okay, but replaceable off the waiver wire in most leagues that aren't more than 15 teams deep).  The runs/rbi is tough to forcast because of the batting order.  He would be a solid 2-hole guy if he could make better contact, but Bochy won't move Scutaro out of there, so that leaves Belt in the 6th hole.  If Pence is still broken next year, I could see Belt pushing him for the 5 spot.

His Home/road splits completely baffle me.  That stadium seemed to completely kill him last year power wise as I saw him hit several that would have been out of other other parks, but he totally sucked on the road and only hit .237 with 2 bombs on that road.  That is weird and speaks of confidence issues, which have been noted with Belt in that past.  Once he gets over that, and August and September may be an indication that he has, then he might explode offensively.

I agree about the playing time concerns still being there. I think at least once a week Posey will play first and Sanchez will catch. I also think he sits against lefties half of the time. I know his potential is there, but his spot in the lineup, his home ballpark, and his playing time scare me a way to much.
Good point on the PT didnt even really bring that into consideration, you think "hey this guys the 1B", forgetting about the whole Posey C'ing some of these guys issues.
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#8 The Ringer

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 06:44 PM

View Postparrothead, on 10 January 2013 - 05:55 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 10 January 2013 - 03:30 PM, said:

View PostThe Ringer, on 10 January 2013 - 03:17 PM, said:

I think playing time will still be an issue at times unless they go back to the Belt in leftfield experiment.

Sanchez may still end up catching Lincecum and Zito for some unknown reason.  It's nice for the Giants to save Posey's legs, but Sanchez' catching skills still need a lot of work.

If that happens, then Posey will be getting 20-30 starts at first again next year and that cuts into Belt's value.

As far as a performance goes, I think he will be solid as a Util type of bat, but not a reliable corner starter on a fantasy team.  He will have a ton more value in leagues with OBP/BB/extra base hits over a standard 5x5 league.

I think he will be a .280/.370/.800 guy and post about 15 HR with 70 runs/rbi (That is okay, but replaceable off the waiver wire in most leagues that aren't more than 15 teams deep).  The runs/rbi is tough to forcast because of the batting order.  He would be a solid 2-hole guy if he could make better contact, but Bochy won't move Scutaro out of there, so that leaves Belt in the 6th hole.  If Pence is still broken next year, I could see Belt pushing him for the 5 spot.

His Home/road splits completely baffle me.  That stadium seemed to completely kill him last year power wise as I saw him hit several that would have been out of other other parks, but he totally sucked on the road and only hit .237 with 2 bombs on that road.  That is weird and speaks of confidence issues, which have been noted with Belt in that past.  Once he gets over that, and August and September may be an indication that he has, then he might explode offensively.

I agree about the playing time concerns still being there. I think at least once a week Posey will play first and Sanchez will catch. I also think he sits against lefties half of the time. I know his potential is there, but his spot in the lineup, his home ballpark, and his playing time scare me a way to much.
Good point on the PT didnt even really bring that into consideration, you think "hey this guys the 1B", forgetting about the whole Posey C'ing some of these guys issues.

I don't know what Lincecum's deal was last year with Posey, but something was definitely up.  Zito also had some interesting comments after a game in which Posey caught, something along the lines of "I should have shook the catcher off on that one." You don't see pitchers throw their all-star under the bus like that often in the post game.  Posey is very much on the same page with Bumgarnger, Vogelsong, and Cain, but not so much with Zito and Lincecum.

I'm speculating here, but I think part of the contention is when Posey sets up and his playcalling.  All three of those guys are command guys and don't mind when he sets up as they can hit their spot.  I think Lincecum felt like his pitches were getting tipped by Posey setting up too early.  Sanchez looks like he is moving all over back there, but part of it is that I think he is trying to wait to the last possible moment to set up for Lincecum's sake.  Like I said, just speculation on my part, but something was off last year.

If they can't get on the same page, then the "easy" way out for Bochy is to keep running Posey out there at first once or twice a week to keep those two happy.  It makes little sense to me, but it does keep Posey's legs fresh.  Posey is a superior defensive catcher with a cannon arm and calls a great game.  By putting him at first, you weaken the catcher spot and first base by moving the superior fielding Belt out of there.  Belt is also a better hitter than Sanchez, so you weaken the offense as well.

At least we can count on at least 130-140 starts for Belt.  Better than being a straight platoon guy.

#9 Professor Turgeson

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 10:04 AM

I get the impression that they will put Belt in the outfield on days when Posey is at 1B.  I read a quote from Bochy somewhere eluding to it. That should alleviate most of the PT issue and give him dual eligibility.

#10 ballfan4141

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 11:30 AM

sandoval was a catcher. posey will be moved a little out of there.......belt is someone for deep leagues or draft towards the end.

#11 cdispoto

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 11:33 AM

For fantasy purposes, I don't think Belt is worth all that much in mixed leagues. I do like him as a long-term major leaguer though and he's a solid young player. Here are our projections for him this season:

457 AB / .266 BA / .792 OPS / 61 R / 14 HR / 64 RBI / 11 SB
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#12 FUM

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 12:51 AM

Hit 4th homer yesterday.  Kid is locked in.  Ready to breakout this year.
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#13 Neymar

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 07:57 PM

I really don't think he has 20HR MLB power.  He's pretty much a faster Loney, IMO.

#14 Neymar

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 08:03 PM

View PostFUM, on 10 March 2013 - 12:51 AM, said:

Hit 4th homer yesterday.  Kid is locked in.  Ready to breakout this year.

Remember Jake Fox and Kila Ka'aihue last spring?  Um, yeah.  It's Spring "Meaningless" Training.

#15 uspsjeter2

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Posted 10 March 2013 - 08:39 PM

Anyone sleeping on Belt is overlooking his potential. He has the pedigree to hit 20 HR, even in that lineup and in that park.
It appears Bochy is finally giving him a path to consistent AB's, even on days Buster will play 1B. I'm prepared to make him a late target in all my leagues.
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#16 FUM

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:26 AM

View PostNeymar, on 10 March 2013 - 08:03 PM, said:

View PostFUM, on 10 March 2013 - 12:51 AM, said:

Hit 4th homer yesterday.  Kid is locked in.  Ready to breakout this year.

Remember Jake Fox and Kila Ka'aihue last spring?  Um, yeah.  It's Spring "Meaningless" Training.

Jesus...You're cool because you said um, yeah!

Anyway don't be a Debbie Downer, you'll see.
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#17 dorsett33

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:26 AM

Belt has hit at all levels for high average and moderate power and rbi totals with a few stolen bases to boot.  His 2 year minor league stats have him at .343 31 HR 148 RBI and .457 OBP in almost 700 at bats.  I believe this is the year he breaks out  now that he is an everday player and no longer has to worry about a platoon situation arising.

My forecast for Belt:  500+ at bats  .305 AVG  20 HR 85 RBI 15 SB

For his ADP he is a draft day steal.

Edited by dorsett33, 11 March 2013 - 10:30 AM.


#18 FUM

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 10:29 AM

View Postuspsjeter2, on 10 March 2013 - 08:39 PM, said:

Anyone sleeping on Belt is overlooking his potential. He has the pedigree to hit 20 HR, even in that lineup and in that park.
It appears Bochy is finally giving him a path to consistent AB's, even on days Buster will play 1B. I'm prepared to make him a late target in all my leagues.

Don't tell that to Neymar, he doesn't see the value in Belt.
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#19 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 12:03 PM

View PostFUM, on 10 March 2013 - 12:51 AM, said:

Hit 4th homer yesterday.  Kid is locked in.  Ready to breakout this year.

He's a career .358/.400/.625 spring training hitter. If you remember he's had spring hype the past two years entering the season, but hey, 3rd times the charm, right?

#20 LUNT101

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Posted 11 March 2013 - 02:11 PM

View PostZumayaaaa, on 11 March 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

View PostFUM, on 10 March 2013 - 12:51 AM, said:

Hit 4th homer yesterday.  Kid is locked in.  Ready to breakout this year.

He's a career .358/.400/.625 spring training hitter. If you remember he's had spring hype the past two years entering the season, but hey, 3rd times the charm, right?
He's been ready for a couple of years. Was never given a fair shot/consistent role.
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