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Matt Moore 2013 Outlook


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#1 KansasTrooper

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Posted 04 January 2013 - 10:59 PM

I've just traded for this guy and am very excited to see what he brings to the table in 2013.  He was brilliant in the 2011 playoffs and was pretty good in 2012 with some growing pains.

What are your guys thoughts on him?

#2 astarlist

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 10:48 AM

I think this guy will be solid, and potentially a top 10 pitcher next season. He's got the potential, the AL East ain't what it used to be, and he's got a full season under his belt.
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2b Kipnis, Prado
ss Bogaerts
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P Minor, Moore, Salazar, Kennedy, Archer, Yordano, Z. Wheeler, Erasmo Ramirez, T. Walker, Duffy, Bundy, Heaney

#3 archibjd

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Posted 05 January 2013 - 01:07 PM

Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

#4 Scam3114

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 07:31 PM

H2h 10 team points league,6 keepers where guys are kept based on rounds they were draft. Traded for Mccutchon him in the last round(he was considered a minors keeper last year) and some earlier picks .This kid is 24 in June and mirrored David Price's numbers from his rookie year. I like the upside 200 Ks and 15 Wins is not out of the question.

#5 jsp2014

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Posted 06 January 2013 - 11:36 PM

he has some serious control problems and he is a flyball pitcher so he was subpar in 2 of the main 3 skills last year. if you look month-by-month, his control really didn't improve. he can turn it around, good park, as noted the AL East isn't what it was, usually a great defense, and the K potential is tempting. so there's a lot of good. I'd probably take him again where I took him last year (100-120 range) but not any higher.

Edited by jsp2014, 06 January 2013 - 11:37 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#6 LyondellBasell

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 11:04 PM

View Postarchibjd, on 05 January 2013 - 01:07 PM, said:

Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

pretty sure he does tap every pitch
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#7 qmar

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 10:23 AM

If he gets his control issues in check, he's a Top 10 pitcher next year.  Getting his control issues is check is not a guarantee or a lock though.
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#8 PRoSPx

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 10:33 AM

View PostLyondellBasell, on 07 January 2013 - 11:04 PM, said:

View Postarchibjd, on 05 January 2013 - 01:07 PM, said:

Wasn't he tipping pitches last year by tapping his glove before he threw the curve? If he gets rid of his tell that could mean a huge stride forward this year towards his immense potential.

I wonder how hard it is to rid himself of the tipping. I would think the answer would be to tap on every pitch instead of trying to stop tapping on the curve which I think wouldn't be that hard.

pretty sure he does tap every pitch
I remember hearing he was tipping pitches last year too.This guy does have very nice upside and looks to be a good value.

#9 Fantasy Fiend

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 10:58 AM

Even with his control issues fixed I still don't see him Top 10. I'll give him Top 20.

#10 Primetime_21

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:08 AM

Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?
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#11 Fantasy Fiend

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:45 AM

View PostPrimetime_21, on 09 January 2013 - 11:08 AM, said:

Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?

That's a toss-up in my book. If I was going for wins then probably Darvish. Moore also still worries me with his BB rate. This is one of those scenarios where I'd have to wait till spring training to see how I feel.

#12 klove42

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 11:46 AM

View PostPrimetime_21, on 09 January 2013 - 11:08 AM, said:

Moore vs. Darvish??? Two guys with similar control problems last year that both showed flashes of brilliance. Who has a better year in 2013?

That's tough... Maybe Darvish because he plays in Oakland and against the Astros and in safeco more, but that Angels lineup got  a lot better. AL East is still scary
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#13 archibjd

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 01:33 PM

http://larrybrownspo...-pitches/153043

If batters know what is coming can you imagine how great Moore would be without the tell? Clearly the upside is better than Darvish.

Also if he clears up his tell he might solve some of his control problems since he is probably trying to do too much since batters know what's coming and he could dial back his stuff and regain some control. In any event his ERA and WHIP will go down. His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1. if the K:BB ratio is over 4:1 it doesn't really matter how many guys you walk, since you are unhittable and you'll be striking out on average 4 or more batters for every walk thereby ending the innings (in the majority of cases) so the walks won't hurt him.

Edited by archibjd, 09 January 2013 - 01:34 PM.


#14 merlin401

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:33 PM

View Postarchibjd, on 09 January 2013 - 01:33 PM, said:

His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis.  His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??
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#15 jsp2014

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:49 PM

View Postmerlin401, on 12 January 2013 - 12:33 PM, said:

View Postarchibjd, on 09 January 2013 - 01:33 PM, said:

His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis.  His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??





I also find it pretty funny that people think the smartest organization in baseball let one of their SPs pitch a significant portion of the year tipping pitches and this year he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

Edited by jsp2014, 12 January 2013 - 12:51 PM.

I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#16 klove42

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 12:51 PM

^one of the reasons why I love this forum
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#17 merlin401

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 01:37 PM

View Postjsp2014, on 12 January 2013 - 12:49 PM, said:

he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

More astonishing is the poster said he'll be so unhittable it won't matter how many batters he walks.  So i think his K-rate will instead double (!!).  A k/9 of 20.00 or so would be an amazing fantasy asset indeed!
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#18 archibjd

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Posted 13 January 2013 - 01:28 AM

A 3:1 or 4:1 K:BB isn't legendary. Most aces sit around 3.5:1. In 2011 Cliff Lee had a 5.7:1

Once you get your ratio over 3:1 it doesn't matter so much how many you walk. For every one guy you walk you strike out 3 or more on average. Three K's take you out of the inning.

Yes if a batter knows what is coming he will be able to lay off pitches better so Moore's walk rate will rise. A pitch that starts out of the zone that is a fastball will stay out of the zone and the hitter knows that. If the hitter is guessing he gets fooled way more and has less time to make decisions on whether to swing or not. Therefore if Moore doesn't tip his pitches his K/9 rate will go up and his BB/9 rate will go down as hitters will start having to guess and not cheat which will cause very bad swings in and especially out of the zone since Moore's stuff is elite.

I think Moore has the ability to have a K/9 rate of over 11. He had a K/9 rate of almost 9 last year tipping pitches. It was very obvious from the article he was tipping. So many times the hitter knew what was coming and he still was able to punch out a ton of batters.

The article also stated that Moore has had that tipping problem on and off for quite a while now (I am assuming it meant in the minors) and he has put up incredible K/9 rates.

So really him having a high BB/9 isn't going to hurt him when he can strike out so many batters. It will hurt him mostly in not being able to get deeper into games but not so much in ERA and WHIP. Getting rid of the tell is way more important than getting his walk rate down 1 per game and as I said I think the walk rate will come down even if his control doesn't improve when hitters are forced to guess at what he is throwing and start swinging at garbage out of the zone when he loses the tell.

Edited by archibjd, 13 January 2013 - 01:33 AM.


#19 archibjd

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Posted 13 January 2013 - 01:34 AM

View Postjsp2014, on 12 January 2013 - 12:49 PM, said:

View Postmerlin401, on 12 January 2013 - 12:33 PM, said:

View Postarchibjd, on 09 January 2013 - 01:33 PM, said:

His K:BB ratio will probably go up from 2:1 to 3:1 or 4:1.

This is kind of crazy analysis.  His K:BB will go from subpar to either great or essentially legendary??





I also find it pretty funny that people think the smartest organization in baseball let one of their SPs pitch a significant portion of the year tipping pitches and this year he will suddenly walk half as many batters because he's tapping his glove before every pitch instead of only his curveball.

blows my mind.

Well if you read the article and looked at the video it was very obvious he was tipping his pitches.

#20 jsp2014

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Posted 13 January 2013 - 07:28 AM

View Postarchibjd, on 13 January 2013 - 01:28 AM, said:

A 3:1 or 4:1 K:BB isn't legendary. Most aces sit around 3.5:1. In 2011 Cliff Lee had a 5.7:1

Once you get your ratio over 3:1 it doesn't matter so much how many you walk. For every one guy you walk you strike out 3 or more on average. Three K's take you out of the inning.

Yes if a batter knows what is coming he will be able to lay off pitches better so Moore's walk rate will rise. A pitch that starts out of the zone that is a fastball will stay out of the zone and the hitter knows that. If the hitter is guessing he gets fooled way more and has less time to make decisions on whether to swing or not. Therefore if Moore doesn't tip his pitches his K/9 rate will go up and his BB/9 rate will go down as hitters will start having to guess and not cheat which will cause very bad swings in and especially out of the zone since Moore's stuff is elite.

I think Moore has the ability to have a K/9 rate of over 11. He had a K/9 rate of almost 9 last year tipping pitches. It was very obvious from the article he was tipping. So many times the hitter knew what was coming and he still was able to punch out a ton of batters.

The article also stated that Moore has had that tipping problem on and off for quite a while now (I am assuming it meant in the minors) and he has put up incredible K/9 rates.

So really him having a high BB/9 isn't going to hurt him when he can strike out so many batters. It will hurt him mostly in not being able to get deeper into games but not so much in ERA and WHIP. Getting rid of the tell is way more important than getting his walk rate down 1 per game and as I said I think the walk rate will come down even if his control doesn't improve when hitters are forced to guess at what he is throwing and start swinging at garbage out of the zone when he loses the tell.

You're right and you're wrong.

K/BB is a pretty useless stat.

You're right that Ks matter because a guy with a 20% K% and 10 BB % is better than someone with a 10% K% and 5% BB% if all else is equal.

You're wrong that BB% doesn't matter. If he does K 11 per 9 like you say, then he doesn't need to shave it. I agree. If he fails to do that and his walk rate stays above 4, I don't think he's going to have much value. Maybe that is obvious.

I don't buy that tipping pitches had a significant effect on his season. That just doesn't pass the smell test for me. You'd have to assume several other teams noticed (or shared) before the Rays did.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.




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