Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

Photo
- - - - -

Stocks, Astls, 3bounds? A New Way to Look at Categories


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
101 replies to this topic

#1 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:56 AM

I'll start by saying I've long since been interested in non-traditional ways of looking at Fantasy Hoops. I'm obsessed with crazy punt/stack strategies in H2H leagues, and other methods that allow you to see value where others do not.

In that line of thought, it's pretty easy to find yourself reducing the game to just a few of the 9 categories when you make decisions about which player to draft, trade for, drop, etc. And for a lot of people, especially H2H punters, it doesn't make sense to make those decisions based on a player's overall, across the board, 9-category value. Those decisions are more about identifying the categories you need, and making a choice based on which option provides most value to you in those categories.

Another way of putting it: in an H2H league, a guy with a lower 9-cat value might actually be MORE important to your team than a guy with a higher 9-cat value if your team relies heavily on the lower rated guy for 1 or 2 categories. An example off the top of my head, a guy like Conley might be more important to some H2H teams that are desperate for asts and stls than a player that is ranked higher overall but doesn't provide major value in any category of need. You can see how things unravel if you lose a guy that is a major provider of 1 or 2 categories.

That's the reason that a guy like Andre Miller, who's 9-cat value is extremely low, can still be valuable part of someone's H2H team. For teams with a deficiency in asts, he helps plug that hole and thus is a critical part of the team. He doesn't hold value to many people, but he's very valuable to you because he plugs that hole and without him, you wouldn't be as competitive in the ast category even though there are better overall options.

But unfortunately it's not always that simple. Teams aren't just deficient in 1 category, and there aren't always guys who are good in that 1 category. It's not often that it works so conveniently. Sometimes you need guard stats. Sometimes you need big stats. Sometimes you need a weird blend of both.

So that's when I started thinking about stocks, a simple and clever way of referring to both steals and blocks. It was such a natural and useful grouping of categories that let me see value in players (Favors, Drummond) that were, at the time, not seen as being that valuable. But to me, for my team needs, they were highly valuable and I may not have keyed in on them if I hadn't looked at player values through the lens of the stock.

The next logical question was whether there are other useful groupings of categories that can help you see if a player is valuable to your specific team needs. That's an actual question I'm posing, I've done a little bit of research and I've come up with a few useful category groupings, but I'm sure that there are minds out there that will see relationships between categories/players that I do not. So Im very curious to see what you guys think and what you can come up with.

For the sake of quoting, I'll post my top 15 players for each category grouping in it's own reply below. It'll take me a few minutes for each one, so don't be confused if you see nothing below right now.

This is an idea I'm still working through, so forgive me if it's half-baked. I, however, am fully baked.

Edited by aaa1, 07 January 2013 - 03:01 AM.

10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#2 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:56 AM

Stocks (stls/blks)

Posted Image

No surprise to see Smoove at the top of this list despite his underwhelming season averages. You also see the strength of Larry Sanders value in blocks, as he's #2 despite not producing much in terms of stl. There are a lot of guys that are buoyed by just 1 of the 2 categories, but you can see the true stockers like Smith, Noah, MGasol, Kirilenko, Durant, Thad Young, Anthony Davis, and Batum.

Edited by aaa1, 07 January 2013 - 03:04 AM.

10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#3 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:57 AM

Astls (ast/stl)

Posted Image
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#4 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:58 AM

3Bounds (3s/reb)

Posted Image
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#5 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:59 AM

Re Throw % (reb/ft%)

Posted Image
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#6 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:08 AM

Astls (ast/stl)

Posted Image



Maybe the most natural grouping, astls lets you see which guards you can use as the anchors of your backcourt. Its easier to come by points/3's on the waivers than ast/stls, so locking up a few of these guys can give you a very strong core to your group of guards.

Conley, Lin, Walker, and Teague all surprised me by how great they are at these two categories. Balance some of those guys with scoring/3pt guards and you have a nice blend to your backcourt.
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#7 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:13 AM

3Bounds (3s/reb)

Posted Image


There's some interesting hidden value here. As expected, Anderson and Love top the list and their value goes up if you split rebounds into offensive and defensive. Carmelo also rates extremely well. But it lets you see the impact of guys like Metta World Peace, Korver, and Parsons. Not sexy players, but very nice if you're in need of 3bounds.
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#8 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:21 AM

Steald Goal % (stl/fg%)

Posted Image

This is one of my favorites, because it shoots a guy like Thad Young to the top. Not many owners think of guys like Thad Young, Kawhi Leonard, Kirilenko, and Eric Bledsoe as belonging among guys like CP3, LeBron, Durant, Rondo, etc, but when it comes to stealdgoal%, they are impacting the game in similar ways.

Edited by aaa1, 07 January 2013 - 03:25 AM.

10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#9 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:44 AM

Stockee's (stl/blk/3s)

Posted Image

Of course, Batum tops this list and that underscores his uniqueness as a fantasy player. Jason Kidd also shows ridiculous value in (stl/blk/3s), I never expected him to be top 5, nor did I think MWP would rank so well. There are a lot of guys that get their value from just 1 or 2 categories, but you can see that there are very very few who actually contribute positively across these cats: Batum, Durant, MWP, George, and LeBron to a lesser extent.
10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#10 Gambino

Gambino

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,753 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:46 AM

Oh man this thread makes me so happy... I love it! So many options!!! I don't know what to choose!

#11 Red Sox Nation

Red Sox Nation

    On the Ballot

  • Moderators
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 3,990 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:47 AM

This is a good tool for owners to use if they are looking to trade for certain stats. Jeremy Lin sits right around the top 25 and much of his value is assts and steals. Conley certainly doesn't surprise me, off of the top of my head he's been up amongst the league leaders in steals for a year or two now.

#12 Swager

Swager

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 202 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 03:48 AM

Can't wait for Throcks

#13 gmoneyb

gmoneyb

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 977 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:00 AM

This is awesome...very useful!

Team 1: 12 Team H2H 9 Cat
PG: Mike Conley, Jrue Holiday, Trey Burke

SG: James Harden, Bradley Beal, Jimmy Butler

SF: Kevin Durant, Andrew Wiggins

PF: Derrick Favors, Omer Asik

C: Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk, Mozgov

 

Team 2: 12 Team H2H 9 Cat
PG: Jrue Holiday, Jeremy Lin, Trey Burke

SG: Klay Thompson, Wesley Matthews, Alec Burks

SF: LeBron James, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

PF: Blake Griffin, Jared Sullinger

C: Al Horford, Roy Hibbert, Kelly Olynyk


#14 BareaFan

BareaFan

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 990 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:08 AM

I'm also obsessed with H2H punting/stacking strategies. Unfortunately, rating players based on only 2 categories will not work. To win a single week, you have to stack at least 5 categories. You also have some very weird combniations: 3s&Rebs, FG%&Stls, Reb&FT%, Stl&Blks.

I'm currently testing the strategy of stacking FT%, 3s, Pts, Ast, Stl. There's a lot of players that give you exactly those 5 stats, mostly PG's. If you built a team where every single player, except 1-2, your PF/C's, that are strong in exactly those 5 categories, then you have a very strong chance of winning every single week.

Edited by BareaFan, 07 January 2013 - 04:11 AM.

Five Cat Stacking: FT%, 3s, Pts, Ast, Stl

10 Teams H2H Standard 9-Cats:
PG: Westbrook; Kyrie Irving; Jennings; Jameer Nelson; Jrue Holiday; Eric Bledsoe; Ramon Sessions
SG/SF: Bryant; Pierce; Jerryd Bayless; Danny Granger
PF/C: Kevin Garnett; Tiago Splitter

#15 BareaFan

BareaFan

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 990 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:14 AM

The top 11 players leading in steals this season are under 50% FG. If you really wanted to stack your steals and prevent other teams from having players that are top in steals, then you're going to have to pay the price of low FG%. However, of the 11 top players in steals, 8 are above 80% FT. That's a very good complimenting statistic. 2 of the 11, Westbrook & Kemba Walker, are at 79% FT. Rondo is the only player that excels in steals with low FT%. So, if you're going to stack in steals, you should also stack in FT%.
Five Cat Stacking: FT%, 3s, Pts, Ast, Stl

10 Teams H2H Standard 9-Cats:
PG: Westbrook; Kyrie Irving; Jennings; Jameer Nelson; Jrue Holiday; Eric Bledsoe; Ramon Sessions
SG/SF: Bryant; Pierce; Jerryd Bayless; Danny Granger
PF/C: Kevin Garnett; Tiago Splitter

#16 BareaFan

BareaFan

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 990 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:18 AM

The top players in steals seem to also have a lot of assist, another complimentary statistic.

(Players that played over 25 games this season)
1. Chris Paul
2. Conley
3. Jennings
4. Westbrook
5. Harden
6. Rondo
7. JLin
8. Kidd
9. Kemba
10. Thad Young

Thad Young is the only player in the list that doesn't give you high FT% or high assist.
Five Cat Stacking: FT%, 3s, Pts, Ast, Stl

10 Teams H2H Standard 9-Cats:
PG: Westbrook; Kyrie Irving; Jennings; Jameer Nelson; Jrue Holiday; Eric Bledsoe; Ramon Sessions
SG/SF: Bryant; Pierce; Jerryd Bayless; Danny Granger
PF/C: Kevin Garnett; Tiago Splitter

#17 BareaFan

BareaFan

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 990 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:24 AM

Another interesting thing is that, of the 9 categories, threes are the least valuable. Why? Because there are players in the league that will not hit a single 3 the entire season. There are days where some players get lucky in some stats. For example, a few days ago, Kyrie Irving managed to get 3 blocks. Some days, Dwight, and even Sanders, doesn't give you 3 blocks. However, what are the chances that Dwight or Sanders hitting a 3 any game this season? Pretty low, almost impossible. Can you rely on the luck of McGee hitting another 3? Probably not.
Five Cat Stacking: FT%, 3s, Pts, Ast, Stl

10 Teams H2H Standard 9-Cats:
PG: Westbrook; Kyrie Irving; Jennings; Jameer Nelson; Jrue Holiday; Eric Bledsoe; Ramon Sessions
SG/SF: Bryant; Pierce; Jerryd Bayless; Danny Granger
PF/C: Kevin Garnett; Tiago Splitter

#18 Jmadtown

Jmadtown

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,761 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:44 AM

I love this. Very interesting. Question. For the 3bounds, why is Varejao 4th? He's been out so long, maybe I forgot he shoots 3's. But I'm pretty sure he doesn't.

Either way, thanks for this.

Yahoo 12 Team Football- .5 PPR

Matt Ryan

DeMarco Murray

Lamar Miller

Demaryius Thomas

Keenan Allen

Jordan Cameron

Flex: Terrance Williams

Bench: Kelce, Reuben Randle, Benny Cunningham, Moreno, Ridley-Waivers Pending  :wacko: 

2012 Fantasy Baseball Champion-10 Team-H2H-5x5
2013 Fantasy Basketball Champion 10 Team-H2H-9-Cat
2013 Fantasy Baseball Champion-10 Team-H2H-5x5

2104 Fantasy Baseball Champion-14 Team-H2H-6x6


#19 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:45 AM

Can't wait for Throcks


Throcks is definitely a better name than Stockees. Point Swager.

Posted Image

Edited by aaa1, 07 January 2013 - 04:45 AM.

10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3

#20 aaa1

aaa1

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,532 posts

Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:51 AM

Question. For the 3bounds, why is Varejao 4th? He's been out so long, maybe I forgot he shoots 3's. But I'm pretty sure he doesn't.


It's only because of his ridiculous value in rebounds. If you look at the value columns on the far right, it lets you easily see if a guy is getting boosted up the ranks because of value in only 1 of 2 categories (Like Varejao, curry, klay, howard, etc). Some people would just skip over those guys for this analysis, but it's important for some people to see where a rebounding specialist would rank on this list. If you are deficient in both rebs and 3's, Varejao being ranked 4th despite not shooting 3s is insightful because it shows you his rebounding impact is so great that it outweighs a guy like Batum or Paul George, who do both but dont provide as much impact in either category.


3Bounds (3s/reb)

Posted Image


Edited by aaa1, 07 January 2013 - 04:52 AM.

10 team H2H (PTS, 3s, FG%, FT%, OREB, DREB, AST, STL, BLK), PG-G-G-F-F-C-UTILx3