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2013 Divisional Weekend Discussion


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#1 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:25 PM

4 intriguing games with each having their own storylines:

Baltimore @ Denver: Last game for Ray Lewis? Perhaps. Peyton Manning kills the Ravens and is 9-2 all-time vs Ray Lewis and company including a blowout win earlier this year at Baltimore. Denver is on a 11 game winning streak. The other Ray, Rice, will need to be huge for the Ravens to pull the upset. Flacco is as inconsistent as any QB playing today but he does have the ability to have a big game in the playoffs (see NE). Manning has his own playoff problems, but he generally plays well in the Divisional Round.

Green Bay @ San Francisco: A rematch of opening day where the Niners went to GB and won. The Niners have a new QB who expands their playbook and ability to push the ball downfield, still he is very inexperienced and Alex Smith was very good in that game. Frank Gore ain't AD but he's still very good and the Niners have a stout OL. Packers have had difficulty stopping the run this season and travel with a banged up D. If the Bay wants to pull the upset, they'll need to be opportunistic on defense and Aaron Rodgers will need to pinpoint in his accuracy to keep drives alive and score TDs.

Seattle @ Atlanta: No team enters this week with more to prove than Atlanta. Criticized, sort unfairly, of not being clutch, the Falcons host a team that seems ideally suited to beat them -- a stout running game vs ATL's 21st ranked rush defense, 2 physical freaks at CB to go against the physical freaks at WR for ATL, and a poised QB that can put pressure on ATL, and a gimpy Abraham, with his legs. Atlanta is 33-5 at home with Ryan under center and Seattle is 4-5 on the road. Tony Gonzalez will have to be big in this game as the Falcons struggle to consistently run the ball. Watch how key injuries to Chris Clemons and Steve Hauschka affect the Hawks.

Houston @ New England: Another rematch of a seasonal game. On MNF, the Pats motorboated the Texans and initiated their tailspin to end the season. Foster looked the best he has all season vs Cincy but Schaub looked very shaky again. On paper the Texans look like they have the elements to pull the upset: good running game, great pass rush, sound special teams, but do they lack the killer instinct and do they have the QB? New England is a machine that will grind up pretenders that aren't sure of themselves and the Texans have some folks on their team that have come up small in big moments: Kubiak, Wade, Schaub, etc. Houston's defense will be much healthier this go around than last time, but the Pats welcome back Gronk and he controls the middle of the field like no other. How will Houston control the options for Brady? Interesting factoid: The last 6 losses in the playoffs for the Pats have been rematches of regular season games.

So, who wins? Who stars? Who will be saddled with the agony of defeat? Be the goat? Post em'.
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#2 rraayy3

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 12:35 PM

BAL/DEN: Flacco/Manning ... with Flacco facing a much tougher defense. DEN, quite comfortably.

GB/SF: GB with Rodgers having all of his weapons back, it's just too much for any defense.

SEA/ATL: Seahawks continue their run, ATL continues their disappointment. SEA is the only defense that can matchup with ATL's passing attack [Sherman/White, Browner/JJ, etc.] and Lynch/Wilson will be too much for ATL's soft run defense.

HOU/NE: Improved Pats D, Brady/Gronk/Welker/Hernandez ... dome team @ NE ... unless Shaub plays the game of his life, NE in a blowout

Denver, New England, Seahawks, Packers in the conference championships.

Manning vs Brady, GB out for revenge vs SEA ... good times.

Edited by rraayy3, 07 January 2013 - 12:35 PM.


#3 Tarheels_2433

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 01:10 PM

GB/SF - as a Packer fan, this game scares the crap out of me, was really hoping the playoff alignment would allow them to avoid the 49ers until the conference championships, alas, that's not how it happened. While Peterson has shredded them recently, I feel the attention to detail the defense has paid to stopping the run (debatable how successful it's been :lol:) the last few weeks serves as a nice preparation warm up for the 49ers, who also have a great power running game.

The key match-ups for this game which could determine the outcome:
- GB offensive line vs. SF defensive line - can Aaron Rodgers get consistent time to throw, stay upright?
- Can GB stop 49ers running game, try and make Kaep beat them through the air, possibly force him into some mistakes?
- Will 49ers DBs rough up the Packers WRs, disrupt their routes with physical bump and run coverage?

Basically, whichever team can impose their tempo, style of play and force the other team to play out of their comfort zone (or strength) will probably win this game. I feel like whoever gets up early in this game will have a huge advantage...

BAL/DEN - I like Denver, too much offensively. I think Denver gets up quickly in this one and Flacco will struggle to keep the Ravens in the game as the abandon the running game (and Rice) early.

SEA/ATL - I think most signs point to SEA winning this game for many things already mentioned in a few threads. However, I think Seattle will lose this game because they don't utilize Lynch enough early and Wilson simply has a bad game. I cannot wait to see the physical matchups between Roddy/Julio vs. Sherman/Browner, finally Browner can pick on someone his own size... :lol:

HOU/NE - I like the Pats. Pats get up big early again, Houston abandons the run game, again. I just can't see Houston's defense stopping the Pats, nor can I see Schaub being able to keep Houston close in a shootout.
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#4 predator_05

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 01:12 PM

Baltimore @ Denver: Denver wins 31-13. Denver are the class of the AFC, a very well rounded team that always executes well. The Ravens were pretty unconvincing in their victory over the Colts and have an offense that consistently fails to convert end zone opportunities. Von Miller and co. will put Flacco out on his a** more than once, and that will be the reason why Denver will easily win this game.

Green Bay @ San Fran: San Fran wins 27-21. I just don't see how the Pack pull it off, San Fran will be happy playing them instead of the other NFC contenders. Rodgers is under too much pressure behind a decimated OL and San Fran has the defense to exploit this weakness. Justin Smith is expected to play, which is welcome news for San Fran. Frank Gore gashed Green Bay's defense in week 1, Alex Smith had a nice game and San Fran has improved its offense since then. I can easily imagine San Fran taking a 10 point lead or so, and shutting the door with Gore, James and Kaep running all over their soft defense in those long, clock killing drives. Rodgers will find a way to keep it a bit close, but it won't be enough.

Seattle @ Atlanta: Seattle win 24-21. I don't care about the past records, or who has done what at home or away, etc. The Seahawks are the best team in the NFC. Period. They keep winning against different kinds of teams, different kinds of players, under different circumstances. This team has seen it all and their morale must be sky high, so its hard not to pick them here. Atlanta definitely have the receivers to wreck Seattle's secondary but it all comes down to whether Matt Ryan can deliver. I don't think he can. Some disguise and a bit of pressure has been known to throw him off in the past. Wilson, on the other hand, is absolutely clutch and just gets better with every game. On the defensive side, Atlanta won't be able to handle Seattle's powerful running game.

Houston @ New England: New England win 31-17. Not the blowout it was last time, but an easy win nonetheless. New England simply have too many weapons. Houston is very one-dimensional on offense and Schaub is out of his depth in a game like this. You could point out how the Jets were written off in 2010, but the fact is that the Jets were clinical on offense, especially in the end zone. They had more options in the passing game, better in clock-control and better prepared mentally than these Texans, who looked jaded on Saturday. Houston will fall behind early, New England will completely wear them out with their super-fast offense.
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#5 Blood Brother

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 01:43 PM

Both home teams win in the AFC, NFC a road team wins, don't know which one. Obviously I'm hoping it's the Pack who pull it off
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B, LF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)

#6 cbe_88

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 02:46 PM

Broncos and Pats win handily in the AFC.

As for the NFC, that's a lot trickier...I had Seattle for the upset special on Atlanta all last week if they advanced, but they didn't look as impressive as I'd hoped defensively last night. I think a 100% RG3 out duels that defense last night easily, RG3 had their number. It's proven that only the elite offenses have a chance to expose such a stout defense in Seattle, but I think Atlanta is one of those offenses, I've changed my tune after last night and think that Matty Ice and company get it done for a coveted postseason win overturning their one-and-done status.

GB@SF is really tough. While it's the defense that could win it for SF, I think Kaep's inexperience shows next week, and Rodgers gets it done even though I think it's ridiculous that McCarthy is running it so much. But hey, the Pack is winning so what do I know? I just think the best QB in football deserver more pass attempts but that's just me.

I was 4-0 in my wildcard picks we'll see if I can keep the streak going.

Anyone else have their six-pack and Chips and guac ready for the Pats @ Broncos for the championship game??!! I get ridiculously excited just thinking about it. Brady vs Peyton yet again.

Go Broncos, go Peyton...eff you Brady and you're a douche.

No but really, the broncos will rout BAL handily next week and I think are the true favorite to win it all. Peyton should already go down as one of the best and has produced two top-10 wideouts this year, but when has he ever had such a stout defense?? Especially after Houston botching it a bit, they're easily the most complete team in the league. The only way to beat Brady is bringing real and consistent pressure and that's one thing Von Miller and company can do.

The NE defense has actually been pretty impressive of late in some ways, but I still like the Broncos here, and it's fortunate because I hate the Pats with a passion. I hope Manning gets another ring going through Brady and the Pats in two weeks...then it would be a total of 4 rings that the Manning brothers vultured from the douche that is Brady, even though I hate the giants...

disclaimer (especially to Pats/Brady fants): I know Brady is one of the best, I just hate him.

#7 DocJ

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 04:22 PM

GB over SF by less than 7.
DEN over BAL by a comfortable margin.
ATL over SEA in OT.
NE over HOU by at least 10.

DEN or NE will win the SB.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#8 baltimore_boy

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 07:40 PM

I wouldn't rule out the Ravens in this matchup. The earlier matchup was a fluke. It was Caldwell's first game and the Ravens were missing almost all of their linebackers (Lewis, McClain, Ellerbe were out. Suggs was limited too). The Ravens are playing this playoffs for Lewis. Manning will likely have a big game, but the defense is playing strong and they were stopping Manning in the first matchup. They eventually wore down because the offense couldn't get a first down and they were all exhausted. Pierce and Rice may be enough to keep it close. Denver will likely win, but it's not really a given. The Ravens defense is playing harder than ever knowing this is Lewis' last run.
Bring back Ray!

#9 TheJRod2006

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 07:53 PM

Broncos
Patriots
49ers
Seahawks
Do you really care who is on my team? I have Mike Trout and Arian Foster in keeper leagues in their respective sports.

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#10 sfdevil

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 08:33 PM

I wont call GB/SF game but Ill take the better defenses in other matchups
Defenses win championships

so

Denver
Houston
Seattle

seattle matches up extremely well against the falcons. broncos have a better team on both sides of the ball than fading ravens without webb ...and texans I believe in wade philips scheming and making adjustments

the most doubt I have is about texans winning but they at very very least will cover

#11 Stingarov

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 08:52 PM

Broncos 38-13 (Flacco vs. Peyton, nuff said)
Patriots 41-20 (Kubiak + Schaub = losing formula in important games; but Andre Johnson will keep it less embarrassing)
49ers 17-13 (Packers fan but that oline is an atrocity, and Jordy should be done for any second now...)
Seahawks 20-17 (Ryan continues to disappoint when it matters & the legion of boom keeps White and Julio in line)

#12 The Phenom

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Posted 07 January 2013 - 10:11 PM

Ravens 20 Broncos 24 - Everyone assumes the Broncos will light it up, but Manning usually starts off slow against quality teams and the Ravens are playing for Ray Lewis. This game will be closer than expected.

Texans 20 Patriots 31 - Game will be close early, but Brady and Co. will get rolling in the second half.

Packers 17 49ers 26 - The 49ers D takes it to Rodgers and Co. in what should be a pretty damn good gane, but Kapernick will get big plays to hold off the Packes.

Seahawks 26 Falcons 20 - The Falcons have no run game to speak of unless Michael Turner suddenly turns it on and the Seahawks will ride BEAST MODE to victory.

#13 ludawg23

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 10:07 AM

Ravens/Broncos - I think the Ravens defense plays better here but can you really trust Flacco away from home against a very solid defense? There's just no way Flacco can go play catch up vs Peyton. Broncos win 28-17

Packers/Niners - Should be a great game but again, I think this comes down to QB play. Rodgers doesn't make many mistakes so it really comes to Kaep's ability to keep up with Rodgers and I'm not sure he has the experience to do that. Niners have to play a run heavy, ball control game and hope they don't get down early. Packers win 24-21

Hawks/Falcons - Seahawks are a dangerous team. Their defense is physical and cocky (I hate Sherman btw) which is what you want going into the playoffs coupled with a strong run game. Lynch is playing out of his mind and Wilson is making great decisions. The big problem the Falcons face is that they matchup poorly against the Seahawks. Unless Turner turns back the clock and runs for 100+, the Seahawks should win this game. Seahawks 28-24

Texans/Patriots - I don't think this one is close. The Texans have been reeling and they played an ugly game vs the Bengals at home. BB and co have had 2 weeks to prepare and they are a tough team to beat in Foxboro. Too many weapons and Brady will find a way to exploit them. Schaub in a shootout is not the recipe for success. Pats win 38-21

2014 12 team 5x5 H2H League - Runner up!

 

2014 14 team 0.5 PPR League

 

QB - Rodgers

RB - Bradshaw, Tate, Vereen, SJAX, Brown

WR - Julio, Steve "Ice Up, Son!" Smith, Boldin, Sanu

TE - Kelce, Miller

K - Parker

DEF - Stream City

 

 


#14 myzto

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 02:06 PM

Ravens & Broncos - Broncos Win led by an elite performance by Manning by dominating the middle of the field. Flacco is the GOAT and Ray Rice fumbles early & Lewis burned ovea nd over in coverage against Tamme.

Pats & Texans - Shaub plays better, but this isn'ta good match upand Texasn won't cover the spread. Pats get a big lead early and ride it out.

49ers & GB - GB D will do enough against SF and Kapernick will make a mistake or two. Rodgers wins it for GB. If Justin Smith isn't fully healthy in his return, which looks to be the case then the pass rush won't be there.

SEA & ATL - SEA will have travelled 9000 miles in a little over aweek by the time kick off happens. Besides that SEA matches up great against ATL. This is the best match up SEA can have an ATL gave up an average of 4.8 ypc this season.

#15 predator_05

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 02:12 PM

Jordy and Cobb are far from 100% so the whole argument of 'Rodgers has too many weapons' doesn't really hold up.

Jordy and Cobb barely played half the snaps in the Vikings game.

I just don't see how GB wins this.

Edited by predator_05, 09 January 2013 - 02:13 PM.

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#16 rraayy3

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Posted 09 January 2013 - 02:34 PM

they also didnt have to play the whole game

the game was over as soon as joe webb took his first snap.

#17 Blood Brother

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 11:22 AM

Jordy and Cobb are far from 100% so the whole argument of 'Rodgers has too many weapons' doesn't really hold up.

Jordy and Cobb barely played half the snaps in the Vikings game.

I just don't see how GB wins this.


Cobb is 100%. Jordy is the one who is banged up a bit with ankle, knee, hammy problems, so he's likely limited
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B, LF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)

#18 DocJ

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 12:18 PM

I wont call GB/SF game but Ill take the better defenses in other matchups
Defenses win championships



I always see this statement thrown about and it confuses me. There are very few dominant defenses with mediocre offenses that have won the SB. I can only think of 2 in the last 30 years. In fact, I would argue that especially over the last 10 years only dominant offenses with average to below average defenses have won the SB.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts
***Follow along this season in the "Your League" forum on RW***
Record: 3-4

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Lamar Miller
WR1: Julio Jones (2.09)
WR2: Roddy White
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Golden Tate (7.06)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF: DET DST
K: Robbie Gould
Bench: Calvin Johnson (1.06), Carlos Hyde, Harry Douglas (11.06), KaDeem Carey (14.09), Big Ben, Carson Palmer, James White (12.09), Eli Manning (13.06), CLE DST (15.06), Danny Woodhead (6.09), Steven Hauschka, K, SEA (16.09)


#19 cbe_88

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 12:30 PM

In this day and age of football, I agree. '85 Bears and 2000 Ravens are more like anomalies, and SF wouldn't be anything short of that if they manage to get a ring with their defense-led team.

In all actuality, it's been the high octane offenses with clutch or elite QB's that get it done as of late. It happens both ways, but the NFL has shifted to a pretty offensive-minded league. Here's the list of QB's with rings the last 12 years, starting from 2011 down:

Eli
Rodgers
Brees
Big Ben
Eli ('07 was more defensive front with clutch play from Eli)
Peyton
Big Ben (especially Ben's rookie year was more defense-led with clutch play from Ben)
Brady
Brady
Brad Johnson (more defense-led)
Brady
Dilfer??? (all historic defense)

I see 4 arguments to be made in the last 12 years that the defense was the focal point that "led" their team to a Super Bowl.

But especially the last 6 years or so, there's a clear "offense wins championships" argument to be made here.

Edited by cbe_88, 10 January 2013 - 12:31 PM.


#20 Blood Brother

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 12:44 PM

Just look at last year's SB. Both teams had 2 of the worst ranked defenses in the NFL that season. Neither ran the ball well, either

With that said, Packers D isn't even bad. Their pass D is actually very good and they are deep at CB.
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B, LF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)