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2013 Value Picks


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#1 cbe_88

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:06 PM

What picks in next years drafts are you foreseeing as possibly the best value picks when looking at fantasy players and what their ADP's are shaping up to be? In other words who might be the best bets on players that will outperform their ADP? While ADP's are still being cemented I think it's a worthy subject that's isn't too early to bring up at this point.

Granted ADP's aren't cemented yet, but I've got:

1.) Sproles - 4th/5th round steal, a lock for receptions from Brees, and Payton back only helps. Only RB left in these rounds that can offer consistency.

2.) Hilton - 6th/7th, Looking like he's possible to get on your bench right now, love it. Possibility he starts next year, and even if he doesn't, when does IND not run 3 WR sets?

3.) Amendola 6th-ish, his injuries are a gamble but keep him at serious value price for a no1 WR, a gamble I'd be willing to take this late in my draft.

4.) Luck - 6th maybe even 7th, only one yr in the league, but he's their whole offense, so it's hard to even see a ceiling to his numbers. Possibility for a soph slump will keep him as possible value here.

5.) Romo - probably dipping to 6th round range here with a small window for even later, similar to Luck's value, but has more talent around him, which helps.

6.) I think I'll even say Julio Jones here - It's looking like he could go as late as the 4th round, while I think he could easily jump to 3rd or even 2nd round value in 2013. His "up-and-down-ness" probably drops him this low, but he developed a pretty nice floor the 2nd half of the season, after having a true dud or two at the beginning of the season. I think he develops a pretty sturdy and elite 8-point (or close to it) floor next year.

#2 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 10 January 2013 - 03:32 PM

This is tough to predict because ADP changes so much from the end of July to the end of August so God knows how they can change from August. With that said I'll list some players that I think could drop in drafts from where they went last year that can provide some big numbers.

Stafford - Sets the attempts record this year, gets his receivers back healthy next year and I saw some absurd stat that he had like 14 TD opportunities spoiled by dropped passes or WRs being tackled at the one. That's more to bad luck than anything else if you ask me and he was a few catches and a few feet from having 30 TD passes instead of 20 which would have turned him into a Top 5 QB.

Ryan Mathews - See Ryan Mathews thread for my opinions on him.

Michael Vick - New team, better offensive line, maybe can get the run game going.

MJD - Lost most of his season and is getting older and older. I think the age plus the injury will scare a lot of people off him.

Torrey Smith - Was projected to have a breakout year...didn't happen but with Boldin most likely gone there really isn't anyone else for Flacco to feed the ball to except maybe Pitta.

#3 Ryan81

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 12:14 AM

Tony Romo - I love him and I can see him being the 10th QB taken meaning he could probably be had in the 6th, maybe even 7th.

Chris Johnson - I think he will be taken in the 3rd. Everyone will remember him being a major bust at the beginning of the season

Joique Bell - Poor mans Darren Sproles with good upside if LeShoure ever went down.

Brandon Marshall - I don't know if this is considered a value pick, but he will probably fall to the late 2nd which is a steal in ppr leagues imo. Guy is a monster with Cutler forcing him the ball.

Jason Witten - Romos go to guy in a lot of cases. Is pretty consistent.

"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#4 pikerbkb

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 07:37 PM

Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Chiefs' QB as long as it's not Cassel, Quinn or Stanzi,....Brandon Weeden, Josh Gordon, Greg Little, Jordan Cameron....Lamar Miller, whoever the Bengals draft at RB, Ryan Mathews, David Wilson, Adrien Robinson, DuJuan Harris, Leshoure, London Broyles, Jarius Wright, Michael Turner's replacement, Emma Watson, Jaime Maggio.

(12:56) T.Richardson up the middle to 50 for -5 yards (W.Mercilus). :)  :)  :) 


#5 rraayy3

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 08:26 PM

ooooh someone else knows about adrien robinson ...

Edited by rraayy3, 11 January 2013 - 08:26 PM.


#6 predator_05

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Posted 11 January 2013 - 08:37 PM

Good call on London Broyles.
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#7 Ryan81

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Posted 12 January 2013 - 11:30 PM

I was thinking about posting these two names earlier and after tonights game, I think they belong here. James Jones and Michael Crabtree. Crabtree has had a solid but quiet year. Kaepernick looks solid and Crabtree has been impressive many games this year. With Jennings likely leaving GB, I think it's safe to say that James Jones role will stay the same. He should also be seeing a lot of 1v1 coverages due to Jordy Nelson and the emergence of Randall Cobb. It also doesn't help that last years MVP is throwing the ball to him.

I also think Russell Wilson could be a nice pickup next year. I think he'll be ranked around the 6th/7th round and honestly, I don't see him regressing a whole lot if any since the Seahawks have a strong running game and defense for him to lean on. Joique Bell could be a steal in late drafts especially if the Lions bench Leshorue like they should.

"Sometimes you get the bear; sometimes the bear gets you." -Clay Othic

RotoWorld Mock Real League - 14 team, .5 PPR, 6 point passing TDs(4-2, 1st place)
QB: Philip Rivers
RB1: Ahmad Bradshaw
RB2: Reggie Bush
WR1: Dez Bryant
WR2: Jordy Nelson
W/R/T: Alshon Jeffery
W/R/T: Mohammed Sanu
TE: Jason Witten
DST: Streaming
Bench: Jeremy Hill, Pierre Thomas, Antone Smith, Travaris Cadet, James Starks, Eric Ebron


#8 FFninja

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 10:18 AM

I really liked Crabtree this year as a WR3 pick that could be had at a WR5 price (plenty of catches for consistency, but not a lot of YPR or TDs) and was obviously rewarded beyond my expectations, but I fear he will get a LOT of hype next year. If you just look at his numbers with Kaepernick, they are unsustainably crazy. His targets were too high to maintain on just like 26-28 pass attempts a game.

So while people are overhyping Crabtree, I think Vernon Davis becomes the true value pick. While Crabs was seeing 11.2 targets/game, VD was down to 2.2 t/g. That almost certainly has to level out at some point. I think chemistry is developed between the two over the offseason and VD goes back to being a top 5 guy but for a TE12 price.

I totally agree with the Romo and Mathews picks posted by others earlier.

There's no way Chris Johnson slips to the 3rd. People will forget the early season struggles in the next 8 months while they are staring at end of season totals. He'll be a late first/early second round pick once again.

Same concept for Julio Jones. Homeboy put up about 80/1200/10. He'll be going in the 2nd round next year.

It's funny - a lot of these value picks are also guys that are in the 2013 all hype team thread. Russell Wilson will be hyped. Hilton will be hyped. James Jones will be overrated due to his TDs this year. Stafford will continue to be an overrated QB who simply throws the ball more than any other QB.

Here is my all-value team:
QB Romo - will be passed by for hyped guys like Kaep, Wilson, RG3, Stafford but will end up as a QB1.
WR Fitzgerald - not sure how far he falls, but it has to be pretty far, right?
WR Nicks - can this fool stay healthy?
WR Lloyd - fallout from this year and sub 1000 yard season will leave him with a WR4-5 ADP
RB Mathews - will be on most everyone's avoid list
RB Ingram - year 3 will be make or break, he started to pick it up once Vitt returned
TE Davis - will be extremely undervalued despite being the most physically gifted TE in the NFL

Honorable mentions:
QB Rivers - will go late and could rebound with a new OC
QB Roeth - undervalued for several years running
WR Harvin - how does the injury affect his ADP?
WR Nelson - injury should hurt his ADP, while Jennings' departure should help his targets. Cobb & Jones will be hyped.
WR A.Johnson - always disrespected
WR Maclin - versatile WR, should be solid in any system
WR Austin - will get lost in the Bryant hype, plenty of targets to go around
WR S.Rice - quietly had a very nice comeback season despite league low pass attempts
RB Lynch - should be easy top 5 pick, but sounds like people are going to let him slip to the end of the 1st. He'll be on most of my teams.
RB Stewart - left a bad taste in everyone's mouth by now with years of underachievement. If DeAngelo is cut, I'm buying.
RB D.Brown - Ballard hilariously overrated. Brown can likely be had for a song and a dance next year.
RB Vereen - appears to be the most talented RB on the roster
RB B.Powell - will likely be overlooked even if he gets Greene's job
RB Wells - Beanie will be the best back on this team if they buy his cheap club option; offense can only get better
TE Celek - always undervalued; new offense

Maybe?
QB Tannehill - improvement will come, but can't see him breaking into QB1 territory
WR Garcon - not sure what to make of him; possibly overhyped, possibly overlooked
RB Moreno - if he starts next year, he'll get no love
RB Dwyer - fats might be the starter next year, not sure if he'll get hyped or hated
RB Bradshaw - Wilson hype should drive his price way down, but maybe it should if it's going to be a RBBC
TE H.Miller - depends on how he comes back from injury

#9 cbe_88

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:53 AM

Great post, I'm on board with a lot of the players you mentioned, Nicks and Romo, yes definitely. Love the analysis on V. Davis, he likely would have been a guy I avoided next year, but now you got me thinking. It appears that Kaep hates his guts right now with the targets ridiculously low for such a talented TE, but I agree there's a good chance Kaep and Davis learn how to get going chemistry wise, I mean you gotta get a guy like Davis involved if you're his QB. Hopefully Kaep does come to his senses in that way.

Interesting later round TE pick, since he will be much cheaper with his plentiful duds, especially when Kaep took over.

Edited by cbe_88, 14 January 2013 - 11:54 AM.


#10 predator_05

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 12:39 PM

I think James Jones will be underrated. The thinking among most people will be, 'oh, 14 TDs, what a fluke, he won't even get close to that'. What i see is a consistent red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, and a WR that plays more snaps than any other on the Packers. He has improved a lot and should have a solid year. Any Packer WR is start-able on a given week. I am guessing i could get him for under $10 in an auction league...i'd love that.
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#11 cbe_88

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 12:48 PM

I agree, his 14 TD's will be scoffed at, he probably won't get the ADP he deserves. He could revert back to his up and down ways a bit next year, but a red zone target for Rodgers he is, and I'm betting he could still be had as cheap as a flex or possibly even a bench spot next year. You could do worse at your flex spot, flex spots don't normally have the blow-up potential than Jones has.

#12 FFninja

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 05:46 PM

I think James Jones will be underrated. The thinking among most people will be, 'oh, 14 TDs, what a fluke, he won't even get close to that'. What i see is a consistent red zone target for Aaron Rodgers, and a WR that plays more snaps than any other on the Packers. He has improved a lot and should have a solid year. Any Packer WR is start-able on a given week. I am guessing i could get him for under $10 in an auction league...i'd love that.


The problem here is that he might be undervalued to 10 players in your league and you might value him correctly, but there's always one guy who sees 14 TDs and jumps on him expecting a repeat. Think back to Braylon Edwards. TDs are the most volatile stat in the NFL, but people will chase last year's number every time.

Also, do you really think he'll be the WR with the most snaps if everyone is healthy? He'll be third on the depth chart next year. Unless you expect Jordy or Cobb to be injured next year, temper your expectations.

I'm mainly being a devil's advocate here. I'm honestly on the fence with that guy. WR3 would actually be a promotion from where he was this year (assuming Jennings leaves in free agency) and I don't expect Finley to be back. So depending on if the new starting TE gets many targets, there could be plenty of targets to go around. But if everyone is healthy and they target the new TE more than Finley then he could be wildly inconsistent.

#13 djbigf

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 06:41 AM

Dwayne Bowe, Tony Moeaki, Chiefs' QB as long as it's not Cassel, Quinn or Stanzi,....Brandon Weeden, Josh Gordon, Greg Little, Jordan Cameron....Lamar Miller, whoever the Bengals draft at RB, Ryan Mathews, David Wilson, Adrien Robinson, DuJuan Harris, Leshoure, London Broyles, Jarius Wright, Michael Turner's replacement, Emma Watson, Jaime Maggio.

love her

and can someone explain the difference between a "value" and a "sleeper" pick plz?

10 team league: (std scoring/flex)

QB Foles, Newton
RB Lynch, Murray, Foster, Stewart, Miller, Ingram, McKinnon

WR Cobb, Benjamin, VJackson, Quick
TE Cameron, Walker
K Tucker
D Eagles, Lions


#14 GottaGetTheWin

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:19 AM

and can someone explain the difference between a "value" and a "sleeper" pick plz?


To me a value pick is someone that eveyone knows about but won't go until mid to later rounds. Most of the guys metnioned on here will be drafted in most leagues as they should be but for whatever reason(bad last year, injury, youth...they aren't considered top round picks but can give you top round production.

A sleeper is a guy that you have in your pocket that no one in your draft knows about. You can safely draft him in the last few rounds of your draft and hopefully wait for him to pop.

Examples of this: Last year I would say RG3 was a value pick but Alfred Morris was a true sleeper.


A lot of people mention names like Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson(prior to last year) as sleepers and I don't think that could be farther from the truth.

Sleepers will 90% of the time not work out in your favor because they are buried on the depth chart or maybe they just aren't that good but the 10% of the time they do work out you feel like an absolute genious.

#15 cbe_88

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 11:36 AM


and can someone explain the difference between a "value" and a "sleeper" pick plz?


To me a value pick is someone that eveyone knows about but won't go until mid to later rounds. Most of the guys metnioned on here will be drafted in most leagues as they should be but for whatever reason(bad last year, injury, youth...they aren't considered top round picks but can give you top round production.

A sleeper is a guy that you have in your pocket that no one in your draft knows about. You can safely draft him in the last few rounds of your draft and hopefully wait for him to pop.

Examples of this: Last year I would say RG3 was a value pick but Alfred Morris was a true sleeper.


A lot of people mention names like Pierre Garcon, Michael Crabtree, Vincent Jackson(prior to last year) as sleepers and I don't think that could be farther from the truth.

Sleepers will 90% of the time not work out in your favor because they are buried on the depth chart or maybe they just aren't that good but the 10% of the time they do work out you feel like an absolute genious.


Yes, this is right.

A Value pick put simply: Any player you believe will outperform their ADP in 2013. This allows big names that will be taken even in the first few rounds to be brought up in this thread if you believe they'll outperform their already lofty stat projections.

This is why I said Juliio...with he and Roddy switching off at times last year for productive weeks he'll probably be more of a late 3rd or very possibly even 4th round guy. And I believe he'll continue to emerge, and outperform that ADP and become a 2nd round grab the next year.

A value picks thread allows you to be able to talk about anyone you believe will exceed expectations next year, not just sleeper guys in the late late rounds.

Guys expected to go as the first picks and earliest on in the draft are the only guys excluded here...for instance you can't really ever call Calvin a value pick because he'll be going so early and it's almost impossible for him to outperform his ADP at this point.

#16 Mad Scientist

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 02:40 PM

Colin Kapernick. He will be hyped. But he will not go above Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Ryan, Stafford, Manning, RG3, or Cam. So if I can get a guy with #1 potential at 9, then I think its a value. Oh, and if he gets hyped above any of those guys, then I will take them. Pretty much the entire QB position is a value buy. Seriously, if you can get one of those guys in the 5th round, why would you ever take a QB early? And this doesn't include new guys comming into the league of rejuvinating careers.
14 team, ppr, 6 pptd

QB- Cam
RB1- Beast Mode
RB2- Ahmed Bradshaw
TE. Cameron
Flex/RB3 Reggie Bush
WR1- Megatron
WR2- Michael Floyd
S/TD: bengels/ Chargers
K Cody Parker
QB back up. Vick Austin Davis
RB 4+ CJ Spiller. Jerick Mckinnin
WR 3+ Marcus Wheaton/ Josh Gordon
TE2 None

#17 cbe_88

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 02:53 PM

Yeah, I still think Brady/Brees/Rodgers (and maybe Cam) are a lock for going inside the 1st 2 rounds staying at an expensive price. But after that even the best QB's after that could slip all the way to the 4th-5th rounds, maybe Peyton is more of a 3rd round guy, but all bets are off after the big 3. Valuable QB's past the big 3 could slip down nicely a couple rounds. I agree lots of value at QB in that second tier

#18 djbigf

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 03:54 PM


and can someone explain the difference between a "value" and a "sleeper" pick plz?


To me a value pick is someone that eveyone knows about but won't go until mid to later rounds. Most of the guys metnioned on here will be drafted in most leagues as they should be but for whatever reason(bad last year, injury, youth...they aren't considered top round picks but can give you top round production.

A sleeper is a guy that you have in your pocket that no one in your draft knows about. You can safely draft him in the last few rounds of your draft and hopefully wait for him to pop.

Examples of this: Last year I would say RG3 was a value pick but Alfred Morris was a true sleeper.

personally, i think alfmo was more of a lottery ticket. no one had any idea what he was able to do.

10 team league: (std scoring/flex)

QB Foles, Newton
RB Lynch, Murray, Foster, Stewart, Miller, Ingram, McKinnon

WR Cobb, Benjamin, VJackson, Quick
TE Cameron, Walker
K Tucker
D Eagles, Lions


#19 ipstaff

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:59 AM

Spiller. He won't likely be at an ADP beyond the late first and I'd expect the new Bills coach will use him properly, and he could challenge for top RB by end of year. Guy finished in the top 10 RBs this year even with Gailey screwing with boh him and FJax all season. A guy you can probably draft 10-12 and could finish top 3-5... that qualifies as value.

Edited by ipstaff, 16 January 2013 - 01:59 AM.


#20 Whoopie!

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 11:19 AM

Spiller. He won't likely be at an ADP beyond the late first and I'd expect the new Bills coach will use him properly, and he could challenge for top RB by end of year. Guy finished in the top 10 RBs this year even with Gailey screwing with boh him and FJax all season. A guy you can probably draft 10-12 and could finish top 3-5... that qualifies as value.



I dont think anyone drafted in the 1st rd is value. Because anyone u take there, you're expecting/hoping they're a top 5 value end of year. You cant say that about the guy you're taking in rd 6.