Intro: It was around sometime in the middle of the season last year where I had Morneau and Mauer (lefties) on my teams and both consistently disappointed for power (especially on home stands). Now I knew Target Field was a pitcher friendly park but what was more surprising to me than my disappointing Twins, were guys like Plouffe and Willingham (righties) carrying fantasy teams for stretches.
It was at this point where I realized understanding there was more to evaluating park factors for hitters than just saying. “That’s a hitters park”… which I was very guilty of doing
I decided to compile a list for the purposes of evaluating overrated and underrated sources of HOME RUN POWER based on park splits which I took from this page.
http://statcorner.com/index.php
(recommended to me by a fellow rw member)
This isn’t the end all be all say of who to draft and who not to draft. The only purpose of this list is to take the current notions of ballparks and find players who are worth grabbing and avoiding based on their home ballparks perceptions and their actual R/L power splits.
I have avoided using switch hitters because it’s further weakening something that’s only useful for a player for 50% of the games, but I figure most switch handed hitters are batting left 75% of the time. I did bring up a few and specified it.
Also it obviously doesn’t account whichever Stadiums have made renovations and changed their dimensions.
Buy/Sell: I used this for when these players were greatly advantaged/disadvantaged by their ballparks just because of the power splits
Under/Overvalue: This was basically a perception thing. Like Dodger Stadium being solidly above average for LH Power, hence Adrian Gonzalez is an undervalued source of power based on common notions of Dodger Stadium.
Sorry for any typos. Some feedback would be appreciated. Also if you think I was wrong about any common perceptions of ballparks. Or if I missed any players I should have noted. Please let me know.
Hope this helps you. I’ll be using it for some guidance during my drafts. Hopefully memorizing some of it.
First number is LH second is RH. Average is 100
AL East
Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 146/101
Amazing for LH average for RH. Considering it’s Yankee Stadium I’d say all RH are overvalued.
Overvalued: RH Texiera, Youkilis, Arod, Jeter
Buy: LH Cano, Granderson, Ichiro
Fenway (Red Sox) 80/111
Bad for LH, Above Average for RH. Really tells me how good Big Papi is, and that I won’t bet on an Ellsbury 30 home run season ever again. Guys like Pedroia and Middlebrooks are properly valued and have a slight edge.
Overvalued: LH Ellsbury Ortiz
Camden (Orioles) 126/120
Almost equally good for everyone. Buy all Orioles for plus park factors for homers. Better than Texas. Also, I’d avoid pitchers here more so than I previously thought. Dylan Bundy, you will not be on my keeper teams. Sorry.
Tropicana (Rays) 85/91
Below average from both sides. Slightly worse for LHP. Joyce is the most notable LH you would draft for power. Zobrist is a switch hitter will presumably get a lot of lefty at bats.
Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) 100/118
Good for RHB, Average for LHB which makes them a tad overvalued
Overvalued LHB: Rasmus, Lind
Buy RHB: Bautista, Encarncion, Lawrie, Arencbia
AL Central
Comerica (Tigers) 97/97
Pretty average power park. No splits. Draft players normally.
Cellular (White Sox) 120/143
Very good for LH power, GREAT for RH
BUY!: RH: Konerko, Viciedo, Rios
Kaufman (Royals) 87/90
Park plays slightly below average for power from both sides of the plate. No real take away considering that’s the perception.
Progressive Field (Indians) 121/74
Probably the most extreme splits in the entire league!!! Very Good for LH Very Bad for RH. Reynolds is pretty undraftable to me, since you’d draft him for power. Going from a top 5 RH power park to bottom 3. Stubbs is basically in the same boat.
Buy: LH Kipnis,
Sell: RH Reynolds, Stubbs
(Santana, Cabrera, and Swisher all switch hitters which means they bat lefty a lot)
Target Field (Twins) 78/103 (the one that started it all for me)
Bad for LH, Average for RHP
Sell: LH Morneau, Mauer, Doumit (switch)
Undervalued: Plouffe, Willingham
AL West
Angels Stadium 82/80
Quite below average for everyone. Hamilton goes down almost 40 points in park factors. I’m not spending a first or second round pick on an injury prone guy now in a power sapping park. Really makes you wonder what Trumbo would do if he got traded. Pujols and Trout just offer too much outside of their great power to not be 1st rounders.
Rangers Ballpark 117/116
Equal from both sides of the plate, although not as crazy for power as one might expect. Def a hitters park though. But would you expect it has the same power factors for LH as Dodger Stadium? Not me.
Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 72/89
Awful for LH. Not too bad for RH
Sell LH: Reddick, Seth Smith, Moss, Crisp (switch)
Slight undervalue: Cespedes, Chris Young (although the park switch from Chase hurts)
Safeco Field (Mariners) 91/70
Awful for righties but surprisingly not too bad for lefites
Undervalued LH: Ackley, Seager, Ibanez, Saunders
Sell RH: Montero, Frank Guit
Minute Maid (Astros) 106/109
As you can see above average slightly for both. Pena might have some value again this year (+20 for LHP from Trop)
NL East
Nationals Park 96/106
Pretty average for everyone. Nothing to see here. As neutral of a park as you can get.
Turner Field 100/85
Often also considered a neutral park, but it’s below average for RHP
Slight Overvalued RH: Prado, Upton, Uggla
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) 126/94
Quite good for lefties, slightly below average for righties. Considering it’s often thought of as a hitters park I’d say RH are overvalued
Buy LH: Utley, Howard, Brown
Overvalued RH Young, Mayberry, Ruiz
City Field (Mets) 93/93
As you can see it’s barely below average for everyone. Considering it’s often thought of as an extreme pitcher’s park (because of year 1), I’d say all Mets are undervalued for power.
Marlins Park 80/84
You can’t make too much of one year but it didn’t look good last year. I’d probably disregard. Stanton will hit bombs and they don’t have much else anyway this year.
NL Central
Pretty great division for lefties.
Great American (Reds) 137/149
Wow. Buy everyone, but worth noting the RH
Buy!: Phillips, Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart, Hanigan/Mesoraco, Heisey
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Miller Park (Brewers) 142/130
Just a great park for home runs. Buy everyone. Worth nothing the lone LH in their current projected lineup Aoki.
PNC Park (Pirates) 81/68
Bad for Lefties AWFUL for righties. Poor Cutch.
SELL RH: McCutchen, Marte, Martin
Busch Stadium (Cards) 98/77
Often thought of a good pitchers park I’d say it’s pretty undervalued for lefties and not great for righties
Undervalued LH: Jay, Beltran (switch)
Slight Sell RH: Craig, Holliday, Molina, Freese
NL West
Dodger Stadium 117/108
Surprisingly above average for RH, and very good for LH making them very undervalued.
Undervalued LH: Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, Crawford
Petco (Padres) 61/93
Awful for LH and almost average for RH
SELL LH: Alonso, Venable, Headley (switch)
Undervalyed RH: Forsythe, Quentin, Maybin
AT&T Park (Giants) 66/69
Sell across the board every giant for power. If anything it explains why it doesn’t take too much to be a good pitcher here because it’s quite easy to avoid the long ball.
Chase Field (Dbacks) 103/114
Not too sure what to do with this. I guess considering it’s considered a hitters park be slightly weary of LH power of Kubel and Montero? Obviously it’s a decent park for them too, just not as good as one may expect.
Coors (Rockies) 150/120
I mean we all knew it was a great hitters park but its crazy for LH and just very good for righties.
BUY LH: Cargo, Colvin Helton, Fowler (switch)
That’s all folks.
2
2 votes
Ballpark Power SplitsA helpful tool
Started by
brockpapersizer
, Jan 11 2013 10:43 AM
34 replies to this topic
#1
brockpapersizer
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:43 AM
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
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#2
PRoSPx
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:53 AM
Awesome post I love where you're going.
#3
jsp2014
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 10:53 AM
thanks for putting in all the work.
the only thing about buy/sell is a lot of these guys have been with their teams for a long time. they have established baselines and using park factors won't help you in any way.
it's mostly useful for players changing teams (e.g. Hamilton) and young guys without much of a baseline (e.g. Rutledge). for example, I regressed Prince's HRs for the change in park last year and that alone cost him about 4 or 5 HR if I'm remembering correctly.
the only thing about buy/sell is a lot of these guys have been with their teams for a long time. they have established baselines and using park factors won't help you in any way.
it's mostly useful for players changing teams (e.g. Hamilton) and young guys without much of a baseline (e.g. Rutledge). for example, I regressed Prince's HRs for the change in park last year and that alone cost him about 4 or 5 HR if I'm remembering correctly.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.
#4
brockpapersizer
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:06 AM
jsp2014, on 11 January 2013 - 10:53 AM, said:
thanks for putting in all the work.
the only thing about buy/sell is a lot of these guys have been with their teams for a long time. they have established baselines and using park factors won't help you in any way.
it's mostly useful for players changing teams (e.g. Hamilton) and young guys without much of a baseline (e.g. Rutledge). for example, I regressed Prince's HRs for the change in park last year and that alone cost him about 4 or 5 HR if I'm remembering correctly.
the only thing about buy/sell is a lot of these guys have been with their teams for a long time. they have established baselines and using park factors won't help you in any way.
it's mostly useful for players changing teams (e.g. Hamilton) and young guys without much of a baseline (e.g. Rutledge). for example, I regressed Prince's HRs for the change in park last year and that alone cost him about 4 or 5 HR if I'm remembering correctly.
I agree with a lot of what you said, but I think this is helpful the less familiar are with ballpark factors and their intricacies. I was very guilty of this outside of the obvious ones.
I think, despite having a baseline there, it's helpful to understand someone like Texiera isn't being helped much by his ballpark where as someone like Kipnis has Konerko have a tremendous advantage and would be shocking for them to have a huge power slump.
Edited by brockpapersizer, 11 January 2013 - 11:07 AM.
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
#5
PRoSPx
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:35 AM
brockpapersizer, on 11 January 2013 - 10:43 AM, said:
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
For years Wriggley was one of the better parks to hit HRs in. They haven't made any adjustments to the park as far as I know.
I just feel they have dropped off in the HR factor rankings due to absolutely terrible offenses over the past few years.
#6
jsp2014
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:42 AM
PRoSPx, on 11 January 2013 - 11:35 AM, said:
brockpapersizer, on 11 January 2013 - 10:43 AM, said:
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
For years Wriggley was one of the better parks to hit HRs in. They haven't made any adjustments to the park as far as I know.
I just feel they have dropped off in the HR factor rankings due to absolutely terrible offenses over the past few years.
I don't know what their algorithm is but the point of park factors is to isolate out factors like quality of the home offense.
It is a hitter's park, just tough on lefties.
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.
#7
brockpapersizer
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:54 AM
jsp2014, on 11 January 2013 - 11:42 AM, said:
PRoSPx, on 11 January 2013 - 11:35 AM, said:
brockpapersizer, on 11 January 2013 - 10:43 AM, said:
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
For years Wriggley was one of the better parks to hit HRs in. They haven't made any adjustments to the park as far as I know.
I just feel they have dropped off in the HR factor rankings due to absolutely terrible offenses over the past few years.
I don't know what their algorithm is but the point of park factors is to isolate out factors like quality of the home offense.
It is a hitter's park, just tough on lefties.
At least for this year there isn't a whole lot of fantasy value on the Cubs. It's just important to know for Rizzo, that the ballpark is slightly below average for lefties so the perception of this up and coming power hitter in a hitters park is a little off.
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
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#8
The Ringer
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 11:58 AM
Good work.
Just glancing at a few things.
You have to also take into account swing types. Jeter isn't a traditional right handed hitter. He profiles more like a lefty. That jet stream is perfect for him, so I'd move him over to the other side given his swing.
AT&T is awful for power, but fair in other offensive metrics and Giants pitchers have shown consistently good road splits, so it's not all stadium helping them. They truly are that good. Usually it plays better for right handed power, but last year it was just bad for everyone. Especially kills Posey who goes the other way a lot and has a lot of balls die in triples alley.
Somebody up above mentioned Wrigley not changing, but you also have to take into account weather patterns. Ballparks located near water are highly susceptible to changes in the way they play based on climate. This is also why AT&T played so tough last year. A ton of cool evenings with dense air just knock those flyballs down. Day games at AT&T make the yard play HOT. Wrigley used to have only day games, but have transitioned to more and more night games. The higher total of night games will impact the park factors and make it more difficult to hit home runs there over a full162. What was once a very hot yard may be playing differently now with more night games.
Just glancing at a few things.
You have to also take into account swing types. Jeter isn't a traditional right handed hitter. He profiles more like a lefty. That jet stream is perfect for him, so I'd move him over to the other side given his swing.
AT&T is awful for power, but fair in other offensive metrics and Giants pitchers have shown consistently good road splits, so it's not all stadium helping them. They truly are that good. Usually it plays better for right handed power, but last year it was just bad for everyone. Especially kills Posey who goes the other way a lot and has a lot of balls die in triples alley.
Somebody up above mentioned Wrigley not changing, but you also have to take into account weather patterns. Ballparks located near water are highly susceptible to changes in the way they play based on climate. This is also why AT&T played so tough last year. A ton of cool evenings with dense air just knock those flyballs down. Day games at AT&T make the yard play HOT. Wrigley used to have only day games, but have transitioned to more and more night games. The higher total of night games will impact the park factors and make it more difficult to hit home runs there over a full162. What was once a very hot yard may be playing differently now with more night games.
#9
brockpapersizer
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 12:14 PM
All really good points Ringer.
For the Giants, I didn't mean to imply that they were average or bad pitchers especially the top ones. But someone like Vogelsong who doesn't have elite stuff becomes very fantasy useful because of ATT. It's harder to have a blow up game at home when balls dont leave the park.
I just looked at Cain's splits and then Vogelsong
Cain: HOME/AWAY
ERA: 2.03/3.56
Whip .9/1.18
Vogel
ERA 2.86/3.87
WHIP 1.2/1.6
So it looks like the park clearly helps their fantasy value.
But I agree with Posey. To me he is by far the number 1 catcher. But I wouldn't project him for more than the low 20s and Sandoval is just someone I'm not drafting unless I get really good value on him...more so if I'm looking for power at 3B. Also, why would anyone invest in Brandon Belt in a keeper league especially? I just see no way he turns into a big bopper in that park.
If any of these guys get traded or become free agents they become a huge bargain next year.
For the Giants, I didn't mean to imply that they were average or bad pitchers especially the top ones. But someone like Vogelsong who doesn't have elite stuff becomes very fantasy useful because of ATT. It's harder to have a blow up game at home when balls dont leave the park.
I just looked at Cain's splits and then Vogelsong
Cain: HOME/AWAY
ERA: 2.03/3.56
Whip .9/1.18
Vogel
ERA 2.86/3.87
WHIP 1.2/1.6
So it looks like the park clearly helps their fantasy value.
But I agree with Posey. To me he is by far the number 1 catcher. But I wouldn't project him for more than the low 20s and Sandoval is just someone I'm not drafting unless I get really good value on him...more so if I'm looking for power at 3B. Also, why would anyone invest in Brandon Belt in a keeper league especially? I just see no way he turns into a big bopper in that park.
If any of these guys get traded or become free agents they become a huge bargain next year.
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
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#10
parrothead
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 01:39 PM
brockpapersizer, on 11 January 2013 - 10:43 AM, said:
Intro: It was around sometime in the middle of the season last year where I had Morneau and Mauer (lefties) on my teams and both consistently disappointed for power (especially on home stands). Now I knew Target Field was a pitcher friendly park but what was more surprising to me than my disappointing Twins, were guys like Plouffe and Willingham (righties) carrying fantasy teams for stretches.
It was at this point where I realized understanding there was more to evaluating park factors for hitters than just saying. “That’s a hitters park”… which I was very guilty of doing
I decided to compile a list for the purposes of evaluating overrated and underrated sources of HOME RUN POWER based on park splits which I took from this page.
http://statcorner.com/index.php
(recommended to me by a fellow rw member)
This isn’t the end all be all say of who to draft and who not to draft. The only purpose of this list is to take the current notions of ballparks and find players who are worth grabbing and avoiding based on their home ballparks perceptions and their actual R/L power splits.
I have avoided using switch hitters because it’s further weakening something that’s only useful for a player for 50% of the games, but I figure most switch handed hitters are batting left 75% of the time. I did bring up a few and specified it.
Also it obviously doesn’t account whichever Stadiums have made renovations and changed their dimensions.
Buy/Sell: I used this for when these players were greatly advantaged/disadvantaged by their ballparks just because of the power splits
Under/Overvalue: This was basically a perception thing. Like Dodger Stadium being solidly above average for LH Power, hence Adrian Gonzalez is an undervalued source of power based on common notions of Dodger Stadium.
Sorry for any typos. Some feedback would be appreciated. Also if you think I was wrong about any common perceptions of ballparks. Or if I missed any players I should have noted. Please let me know.
Hope this helps you. I’ll be using it for some guidance during my drafts. Hopefully memorizing some of it.
First number is LH second is RH. Average is 100
AL East
Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 146/101
Amazing for LH average for RH. Considering it’s Yankee Stadium I’d say all RH are overvalued.
Overvalued: RH Texiera, Youkilis, Arod, Jeter
Buy: LH Cano, Granderson, Ichiro
Fenway (Red Sox) 80/111
Bad for LH, Above Average for RH. Really tells me how good Big Papi is, and that I won’t bet on an Ellsbury 30 home run season ever again. Guys like Pedroia and Middlebrooks are properly valued and have a slight edge.
Overvalued: LH Ellsbury Ortiz
Camden (Orioles) 126/120
Almost equally good for everyone. Buy all Orioles for plus park factors for homers. Better than Texas. Also, I’d avoid pitchers here more so than I previously thought. Dylan Bundy, you will not be on my keeper teams. Sorry.
Tropicana (Rays) 85/91
Below average from both sides. Slightly worse for LHP. Joyce is the most notable LH you would draft for power. Zobrist is a switch hitter will presumably get a lot of lefty at bats.
Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) 100/118
Good for RHB, Average for LHB which makes them a tad overvalued
Overvalued LHB: Rasmus, Lind
Buy RHB: Bautista, Encarncion, Lawrie, Arencbia
AL Central
Comerica (Tigers) 97/97
Pretty average power park. No splits. Draft players normally.
Cellular (White Sox) 120/143
Very good for LH power, GREAT for RH
BUY!: RH: Konerko, Viciedo, Rios
Kaufman (Royals) 87/90
Park plays slightly below average for power from both sides of the plate. No real take away considering that’s the perception.
Progressive Field (Indians) 121/74
Probably the most extreme splits in the entire league!!! Very Good for LH Very Bad for RH. Reynolds is pretty undraftable to me, since you’d draft him for power. Going from a top 5 RH power park to bottom 3. Stubbs is basically in the same boat.
Buy: LH Kipnis,
Sell: RH Reynolds, Stubbs
(Santana, Cabrera, and Swisher all switch hitters which means they bat lefty a lot)
Target Field (Twins) 78/103 (the one that started it all for me)
Bad for LH, Average for RHP
Sell: LH Morneau, Mauer, Doumit (switch)
Undervalued: Plouffe, Willingham
AL West
Angels Stadium 82/80
Quite below average for everyone. Hamilton goes down almost 40 points in park factors. I’m not spending a first or second round pick on an injury prone guy now in a power sapping park. Really makes you wonder what Trumbo would do if he got traded. Pujols and Trout just offer too much outside of their great power to not be 1st rounders.
Rangers Ballpark 117/116
Equal from both sides of the plate, although not as crazy for power as one might expect. Def a hitters park though. But would you expect it has the same power factors for LH as Dodger Stadium? Not me.
Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 72/89
Awful for LH. Not too bad for RH
Sell LH: Reddick, Seth Smith, Moss, Crisp (switch)
Slight undervalue: Cespedes, Chris Young (although the park switch from Chase hurts)
Safeco Field (Mariners) 91/70
Awful for righties but surprisingly not too bad for lefites
Undervalued LH: Ackley, Seager, Ibanez, Saunders
Sell RH: Montero, Frank Guit
Minute Maid (Astros) 106/109
As you can see above average slightly for both. Pena might have some value again this year (+20 for LHP from Trop)
NL East
Nationals Park 96/106
Pretty average for everyone. Nothing to see here. As neutral of a park as you can get.
Turner Field 100/85
Often also considered a neutral park, but it’s below average for RHP
Slight Overvalued RH: Prado, Upton, Uggla
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) 126/94
Quite good for lefties, slightly below average for righties. Considering it’s often thought of as a hitters park I’d say RH are overvalued
Buy LH: Utley, Howard, Brown
Overvalued RH Young, Mayberry, Ruiz
City Field (Mets) 93/93
As you can see it’s barely below average for everyone. Considering it’s often thought of as an extreme pitcher’s park (because of year 1), I’d say all Mets are undervalued for power.
Marlins Park 80/84
You can’t make too much of one year but it didn’t look good last year. I’d probably disregard. Stanton will hit bombs and they don’t have much else anyway this year.
NL Central
Pretty great division for lefties.
Great American (Reds) 137/149
Wow. Buy everyone, but worth noting the RH
Buy!: Phillips, Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart, Hanigan/Mesoraco, Heisey
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Miller Park (Brewers) 142/130
Just a great park for home runs. Buy everyone. Worth nothing the lone LH in their current projected lineup Aoki.
PNC Park (Pirates) 81/68
Bad for Lefties AWFUL for righties. Poor Cutch.
SELL RH: McCutchen, Marte, Martin
Busch Stadium (Cards) 98/77
Often thought of a good pitchers park I’d say it’s pretty undervalued for lefties and not great for righties
Undervalued LH: Jay, Beltran (switch)
Slight Sell RH: Craig, Holliday, Molina, Freese
NL West
Dodger Stadium 117/108
Surprisingly above average for RH, and very good for LH making them very undervalued.
Undervalued LH: Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, Crawford
Petco (Padres) 61/93
Awful for LH and almost average for RH
SELL LH: Alonso, Venable, Headley (switch)
Undervalyed RH: Forsythe, Quentin, Maybin
AT&T Park (Giants) 66/69
Sell across the board every giant for power. If anything it explains why it doesn’t take too much to be a good pitcher here because it’s quite easy to avoid the long ball.
Chase Field (Dbacks) 103/114
Not too sure what to do with this. I guess considering it’s considered a hitters park be slightly weary of LH power of Kubel and Montero? Obviously it’s a decent park for them too, just not as good as one may expect.
Coors (Rockies) 150/120
I mean we all knew it was a great hitters park but its crazy for LH and just very good for righties.
BUY LH: Cargo, Colvin Helton, Fowler (switch)
That’s all folks.
It was at this point where I realized understanding there was more to evaluating park factors for hitters than just saying. “That’s a hitters park”… which I was very guilty of doing
I decided to compile a list for the purposes of evaluating overrated and underrated sources of HOME RUN POWER based on park splits which I took from this page.
http://statcorner.com/index.php
(recommended to me by a fellow rw member)
This isn’t the end all be all say of who to draft and who not to draft. The only purpose of this list is to take the current notions of ballparks and find players who are worth grabbing and avoiding based on their home ballparks perceptions and their actual R/L power splits.
I have avoided using switch hitters because it’s further weakening something that’s only useful for a player for 50% of the games, but I figure most switch handed hitters are batting left 75% of the time. I did bring up a few and specified it.
Also it obviously doesn’t account whichever Stadiums have made renovations and changed their dimensions.
Buy/Sell: I used this for when these players were greatly advantaged/disadvantaged by their ballparks just because of the power splits
Under/Overvalue: This was basically a perception thing. Like Dodger Stadium being solidly above average for LH Power, hence Adrian Gonzalez is an undervalued source of power based on common notions of Dodger Stadium.
Sorry for any typos. Some feedback would be appreciated. Also if you think I was wrong about any common perceptions of ballparks. Or if I missed any players I should have noted. Please let me know.
Hope this helps you. I’ll be using it for some guidance during my drafts. Hopefully memorizing some of it.
First number is LH second is RH. Average is 100
AL East
Yankee Stadium (Yankees) 146/101
Amazing for LH average for RH. Considering it’s Yankee Stadium I’d say all RH are overvalued.
Overvalued: RH Texiera, Youkilis, Arod, Jeter
Buy: LH Cano, Granderson, Ichiro
Fenway (Red Sox) 80/111
Bad for LH, Above Average for RH. Really tells me how good Big Papi is, and that I won’t bet on an Ellsbury 30 home run season ever again. Guys like Pedroia and Middlebrooks are properly valued and have a slight edge.
Overvalued: LH Ellsbury Ortiz
Camden (Orioles) 126/120
Almost equally good for everyone. Buy all Orioles for plus park factors for homers. Better than Texas. Also, I’d avoid pitchers here more so than I previously thought. Dylan Bundy, you will not be on my keeper teams. Sorry.
Tropicana (Rays) 85/91
Below average from both sides. Slightly worse for LHP. Joyce is the most notable LH you would draft for power. Zobrist is a switch hitter will presumably get a lot of lefty at bats.
Rogers Centre (Blue Jays) 100/118
Good for RHB, Average for LHB which makes them a tad overvalued
Overvalued LHB: Rasmus, Lind
Buy RHB: Bautista, Encarncion, Lawrie, Arencbia
AL Central
Comerica (Tigers) 97/97
Pretty average power park. No splits. Draft players normally.
Cellular (White Sox) 120/143
Very good for LH power, GREAT for RH
BUY!: RH: Konerko, Viciedo, Rios
Kaufman (Royals) 87/90
Park plays slightly below average for power from both sides of the plate. No real take away considering that’s the perception.
Progressive Field (Indians) 121/74
Probably the most extreme splits in the entire league!!! Very Good for LH Very Bad for RH. Reynolds is pretty undraftable to me, since you’d draft him for power. Going from a top 5 RH power park to bottom 3. Stubbs is basically in the same boat.
Buy: LH Kipnis,
Sell: RH Reynolds, Stubbs
(Santana, Cabrera, and Swisher all switch hitters which means they bat lefty a lot)
Target Field (Twins) 78/103 (the one that started it all for me)
Bad for LH, Average for RHP
Sell: LH Morneau, Mauer, Doumit (switch)
Undervalued: Plouffe, Willingham
AL West
Angels Stadium 82/80
Quite below average for everyone. Hamilton goes down almost 40 points in park factors. I’m not spending a first or second round pick on an injury prone guy now in a power sapping park. Really makes you wonder what Trumbo would do if he got traded. Pujols and Trout just offer too much outside of their great power to not be 1st rounders.
Rangers Ballpark 117/116
Equal from both sides of the plate, although not as crazy for power as one might expect. Def a hitters park though. But would you expect it has the same power factors for LH as Dodger Stadium? Not me.
Oakland Coliseum (A’s) 72/89
Awful for LH. Not too bad for RH
Sell LH: Reddick, Seth Smith, Moss, Crisp (switch)
Slight undervalue: Cespedes, Chris Young (although the park switch from Chase hurts)
Safeco Field (Mariners) 91/70
Awful for righties but surprisingly not too bad for lefites
Undervalued LH: Ackley, Seager, Ibanez, Saunders
Sell RH: Montero, Frank Guit
Minute Maid (Astros) 106/109
As you can see above average slightly for both. Pena might have some value again this year (+20 for LHP from Trop)
NL East
Nationals Park 96/106
Pretty average for everyone. Nothing to see here. As neutral of a park as you can get.
Turner Field 100/85
Often also considered a neutral park, but it’s below average for RHP
Slight Overvalued RH: Prado, Upton, Uggla
Citizens Bank Park (Phillies) 126/94
Quite good for lefties, slightly below average for righties. Considering it’s often thought of as a hitters park I’d say RH are overvalued
Buy LH: Utley, Howard, Brown
Overvalued RH Young, Mayberry, Ruiz
City Field (Mets) 93/93
As you can see it’s barely below average for everyone. Considering it’s often thought of as an extreme pitcher’s park (because of year 1), I’d say all Mets are undervalued for power.
Marlins Park 80/84
You can’t make too much of one year but it didn’t look good last year. I’d probably disregard. Stanton will hit bombs and they don’t have much else anyway this year.
NL Central
Pretty great division for lefties.
Great American (Reds) 137/149
Wow. Buy everyone, but worth noting the RH
Buy!: Phillips, Ludwick, Frazier, Cozart, Hanigan/Mesoraco, Heisey
Wrigley Field (Cubs) 91/107
Another pretty average park. Considering it’s considered a hitters park I’d say the LH are a tad overvalued namely Rizzo and Stewart (slight overvalue)
Miller Park (Brewers) 142/130
Just a great park for home runs. Buy everyone. Worth nothing the lone LH in their current projected lineup Aoki.
PNC Park (Pirates) 81/68
Bad for Lefties AWFUL for righties. Poor Cutch.
SELL RH: McCutchen, Marte, Martin
Busch Stadium (Cards) 98/77
Often thought of a good pitchers park I’d say it’s pretty undervalued for lefties and not great for righties
Undervalued LH: Jay, Beltran (switch)
Slight Sell RH: Craig, Holliday, Molina, Freese
NL West
Dodger Stadium 117/108
Surprisingly above average for RH, and very good for LH making them very undervalued.
Undervalued LH: Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez, Crawford
Petco (Padres) 61/93
Awful for LH and almost average for RH
SELL LH: Alonso, Venable, Headley (switch)
Undervalyed RH: Forsythe, Quentin, Maybin
AT&T Park (Giants) 66/69
Sell across the board every giant for power. If anything it explains why it doesn’t take too much to be a good pitcher here because it’s quite easy to avoid the long ball.
Chase Field (Dbacks) 103/114
Not too sure what to do with this. I guess considering it’s considered a hitters park be slightly weary of LH power of Kubel and Montero? Obviously it’s a decent park for them too, just not as good as one may expect.
Coors (Rockies) 150/120
I mean we all knew it was a great hitters park but its crazy for LH and just very good for righties.
BUY LH: Cargo, Colvin Helton, Fowler (switch)
That’s all folks.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about
#11
RespectMyAuthority
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 04:16 PM
parrothead, on 11 January 2013 - 01:39 PM, said:
Whats ironic though is that the park on the road where he has the most HR is Petco which is not a good park for a RH to try and go opposite way.
Petco isn't good for RH pull, RH/LH straightaway, LH oppo or LH pull either
#12
Red Sox Nation
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 05:32 PM
Very useful tool. Thanks for the post, great work.
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
#13
Slatykamora
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 06:33 PM
Red Sox Nation, on 11 January 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:
Very useful tool. Thanks for the post, great work.
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
Problem with SafeCo, even with the fences moved in. Its still a large ballpark and the Marine layer is still going to keep balls down.
#14
parrothead
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Posted 11 January 2013 - 07:26 PM
Slatykamora, on 11 January 2013 - 06:33 PM, said:
Red Sox Nation, on 11 January 2013 - 05:32 PM, said:
Very useful tool. Thanks for the post, great work.
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
Question: How are the moved in fences at SafeCo expected to play out?
Problem with SafeCo, even with the fences moved in. Its still a large ballpark and the Marine layer is still going to keep balls down.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about
#15
brockpapersizer
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Posted 15 January 2013 - 06:01 PM
anyone have any idea about Seattles new ballpark change in dimensions?
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
#16
parrothead
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Posted 15 January 2013 - 06:08 PM
brockpapersizer, on 15 January 2013 - 06:01 PM, said:
anyone have any idea about Seattles new ballpark change in dimensions?
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about
#17
ipstaff
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Posted 16 January 2013 - 12:55 AM
Posts like these are exactly what I like most about these forums. Great work!
#18
brockpapersizer
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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:36 AM
Just wanted to add that yesterday's trade brings down some of Upton's home run potential. Yeah he was playing hurt last year and probably wil be invigorated playing for a new team, a contender, and with his older brother.... but going from a park that is ranked 114 for RH power to 85 is a pretty decent dropoff.
-Buy high, sell low, keep em guessing.
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
Football 2012: Rotoworld Championship League Group A: CHAMPION!!!!!
#19
dzemens
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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:44 AM
brockpapersizer, on 25 January 2013 - 11:36 AM, said:
Just wanted to add that yesterday's trade brings down some of Upton's home run potential. Yeah he was playing hurt last year and probably wil be invigorated playing for a new team, a contender, and with his older brother.... but going from a park that is ranked 114 for RH power to 85 is a pretty decent dropoff.
The one caveat with him is that it tends to impact more of the power to just clear the fence as opposed to no doubters as was pointed out in Uptons thread. His average HR distance should play anywhere, while there may be some impact I dont think it would be too drastic in his case. Looking at hit tracker 13 of 18 were at or over 400 feet.
"In order to be the man, you have to beat the man."
#20
Zumayaaaa
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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:45 AM
Just wanted to point out that Teixeira is a switch hitter, so he will be batting LH most of the time and taking adv. of Yankees stadiums friendly surroundings.
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