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Jeremy Hellickson 2013 OutlookYet another young & exciting arm in TB


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#1 PRoSPx

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 04:44 PM

Jeremy Hellickson was more than solid at 25 last year in the bigs.  Posting an 11-10 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

Seemed as if he was babied a little bit last year as he only averaged 5.71 innings per start, going for a total of 177 innings over 31 starts.

But entering what will be his third full season at the major league level could be his break out season.

Hellickson has more than held his own at the major league level and always had great minor league numbers and even in Tampa's great depth of SP prospect he was always regarded as a top prospect.

#2 ballfan4141

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 08:54 PM

I noticed he had a pretty good stat line.

#3 MrEephus

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Posted 14 January 2013 - 11:20 PM

he wasn't coddled really (at least most of his starts). He nibbled too much and threw too many pitches which lead to shorter stints. His zone % was 39.8% (versus 45.1% he had in 2011). His K/9 went up by a good amount, which is very encouraging as well as the near .5 drop in BB/9. I'm a believer in his ability to have a low BABIP, but that LOB% has a good chance to regress to below 80% and he needs to get HR/FB low again if he wants to maintain his value. I think he has shown to have excellent control and command at times, but he needs to stop trying to outthink hitters and just trust his stuff.
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#4 PRoSPx

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 02:54 PM

Well hopefully he can learn to pitch a bit more efficiently with more experience.

Edited by PRoSPx, 15 January 2013 - 02:55 PM.


#5 rdubs23

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 04:27 PM

The improvement in K/9 was very encouraging, this guy is a classic example of a dude who, for whatever reason, is just really tough for hitters. He is not overpowering, yes he gives up a pretty large number of fly balls, but guys just cant seem to make good contact consistently off him.
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#6 cymbaline

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 04:45 PM

What's up with his Porcello-like K rate?  The guy posted a 9.9 K/9 in the minors over 580 IP.  For whatever reason, this hasn't translated into high K's at the big league level.

It's hard to rely on a pitcher with a sub-par K rate and higher than preferred BB/9 as anything more than a SP3.

It will be interesting to see if he continues to blow away his peripherals.  Thus far he's been a shining example of the inability of underlying metrics to gauge true performance.  Career marks:  xFIP 4.51, SIERA 4.49, ERA 3.06.  Wow.  Take that for out-pitching peripherals, Matt Cain.

Edited by cymbaline, 15 January 2013 - 04:48 PM.


#7 ballfan4141

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:05 PM

a lot of mlb pitchers had a good era and whip....their k/9 were not good then one season they get about k per inning. like adam wainwright did.

#8 crookedmacs

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:08 AM

I'm on the fence with him.  I can see his K rate making a solid jump.  All bets off in that case.  Dude knows how to pitch.  Just seems to throw a tad too many pitches to get through 6 innings.

Color me interested

Edited by crookedmacs, 16 January 2013 - 02:09 AM.


#9 WahooManiac

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:36 AM

Ks will go up when he stops throwing 2 strike meat, the fly ball rate is skewed somewhat as he gives up a ton of infield flys IIRC.  Im waiting on the k rate to go up, his stuff is too good not to K more
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#10 cyberer

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 11:43 AM

There's a good fangraphs article on him. Suffice it to say he's been, 2 years running, one of the biggest statistical outliers of all time.

The rays defense doesn't even explain it away because other rays pitchers don't have the same luck metrics.

I think he had one of the lowest babips in history.

Pretty much we need to see major skill set improvements just to tread water to even return to baseline luck stats.

He's young and well coached in a great organization, but even so improvement isn't a given and a repeat would likely be a one way train to regression town.

Disclaimer I got him for 5 bucks in a dynasty after drafting him initially as a prospect, so I've followed him for quite some time.
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#11 SoundMaster

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 11:55 AM

View Postcyberer, on 16 January 2013 - 11:43 AM, said:

There's a good fangraphs article on him. Suffice it to say he's been, 2 years running, one of the biggest statistical outliers of all time.

The rays defense doesn't even explain it away because other rays pitchers don't have the same luck metrics.

I think he had one of the lowest babips in history.

Pretty much we need to see major skill set improvements just to tread water to even return to baseline luck stats.

He's young and well coached in a great organization, but even so improvement isn't a given and a repeat would likely be a one way train to regression town.


As another poster suggested, he could be a unique talent that somehow outperforms his skill-set.    But, frankly, I'm not willing to take that chance in '13.
Let someone else test that theory within their roster.

#12 cymbaline

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 12:53 PM

View Postcyberer, on 16 January 2013 - 11:43 AM, said:

There's a good fangraphs article on him. Suffice it to say he's been, 2 years running, one of the biggest statistical outliers of all time.

The rays defense doesn't even explain it away because other rays pitchers don't have the same luck metrics.

I think he had one of the lowest babips in history.

Pretty much we need to see major skill set improvements just to tread water to even return to baseline luck stats.

He's young and well coached in a great organization, but even so improvement isn't a given and a repeat would likely be a one way train to regression town.

Disclaimer I got him for 5 bucks in a dynasty after drafting him initially as a prospect, so I've followed him for quite some time.

At some point, luck should be factored out of the equation.  I'm not sure that Hellickson has reached that point yet but he is approaching it.

For some guys who regularly outperform the underlying metrics like Weaver or Cain, it's fairly safe to say it's no longer luck -- it's skill.  Guys like this show the inadequacy of underlying ERA measurements.  Perhaps Hellboy will be one of these guys but the jury is still out.  If he does it for a 3rd year in a row, he'd likely be taken off the outlier list.

The BABIP, luck and regression thing doesn't frighten me as much as getting an innings eater with a 5-something K/9 with a BB/9 over 3.

Edited by cymbaline, 16 January 2013 - 12:58 PM.


#13 Scam3114

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 09:13 PM

Screw stats I'll take a guy who had a 3.10 ERA and is a year removed from winning rookie of the year in the 16th round. There is no risk, if he isn't very good you drop him. It's not always about the fangraphs.

#14 laracco

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 09:36 PM

I just took him in the 16th round about 30 minutes ago as my SP 5/6. Not much of a gamble with nice upside.
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#15 WahooManiac

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 10:53 PM

View Postcyberer, on 16 January 2013 - 11:43 AM, said:

There's a good fangraphs article on him. Suffice it to say he's been, 2 years running, one of the biggest statistical outliers of all time.

The rays defense doesn't even explain it away because other rays pitchers don't have the same luck metrics.

I think he had one of the lowest babips in history.

Pretty much we need to see major skill set improvements just to tread water to even return to baseline luck stats.

He's young and well coached in a great organization, but even so improvement isn't a given and a repeat would likely be a one way train to regression town.

Disclaimer I got him for 5 bucks in a dynasty after drafting him initially as a prospect, so I've followed him for quite some time.
IIRC isnt a lot of it fueled by his insane rate at getting inf popups or something like that?  Cant remember exactly and im at work so I cant do a ton of research right now, but ya hellboys a headscratcher all the way.  Still cant understand that K rate either.
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#16 parrothead

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 08:01 AM

Ive got him cheap middle rotation guy on my team 4-5 range, if Im gonna win it, he is a guy Im targeting as a "key".
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#17 Sine_cera

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 10:57 AM

View PostScam3114, on 27 March 2013 - 09:13 PM, said:

Screw stats I'll take a guy who had a 3.10 ERA and is a year removed from winning rookie of the year in the 16th round. There is no risk, if he isn't very good you drop him. It's not always about the fangraphs.
Screw stats?

He has the highest LOB% in the majors over the last 2 years. That's the highest LOB% since 1969! He's outperforming his FIP and xFIP by almost 1.50 runs. Even Matt Cain would be jealous of that. And he's doing all that while having one of the worst K/BB ratios in the Majors,

I'm not buying it.
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#18 Scam3114

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 08:59 PM

Then don't buy it. I don't care. I'll woop you in a fantasy league with hellickson. And there wont be a damn thing you could do about it.

#19 new york dork

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 03:04 PM

Caught this on Deadspin.

Jeremy Hellickson followed up his Rookie of the Year 2011 with a similar 2012. In both seasons he led all pitchers in undershooting his SIERA projection, prompting a Fangraphs columnist to throw up his hands and complain that “his underlying metrics offer no hints whatsoever as to how the heck he has done what he has.” Hellickson's extreme infield-popup tendencies in 2011 regressed in 2012, the Rays defense was worse, and his slightly higher strikeout rate didn't make up the difference. So how'd he do it? Here's a hint: Hellickson's 82.7 percent strand rate led major-league starters. That may not have been a fluke: His LOB percentage placed second in 2011. Closer scrutiny suggests that Hellickson's mechanics improve when he pitches from the stretch. If his strand rate stays high in 2013, we may have to stop calling him lucky and accept Hellickson as a clutch pitcher and therefore a legitimate statistical outlier.

He got rocked today for what that's worth.

#20 Stickfig13

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 03:19 PM

View Postnew york dork, on 29 March 2013 - 03:04 PM, said:

Caught this on Deadspin.

Jeremy Hellickson followed up his Rookie of the Year 2011 with a similar 2012. In both seasons he led all pitchers in undershooting his SIERA projection, prompting a Fangraphs columnist to throw up his hands and complain that “his underlying metrics offer no hints whatsoever as to how the heck he has done what he has.” Hellickson's extreme infield-popup tendencies in 2011 regressed in 2012, the Rays defense was worse, and his slightly higher strikeout rate didn't make up the difference. So how'd he do it? Here's a hint: Hellickson's 82.7 percent strand rate led major-league starters. That may not have been a fluke: His LOB percentage placed second in 2011. Closer scrutiny suggests that Hellickson's mechanics improve when he pitches from the stretch. If his strand rate stays high in 2013, we may have to stop calling him lucky and accept Hellickson as a clutch pitcher and therefore a legitimate statistical outlier.

He got rocked today for what that's worth.

Strand rate would mean he probably has a great defense. Right? That could explain some of his success. No?




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