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Jonathon Niese 2013 Outlook


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#1 PRoSPx

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 09:23 AM

What strikes me uncanny about Niese is how similar his minor league and major league career stats look this early into his career.

Minor League Career: 3.73 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.16 K/9.
Major League Career: 4.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.54 K/9.

He had a very nice breakout at 25 last year posting his best ERA and WHIP at the major league level and doing this through a full season nonetheless.

I'm looking forward to good improvement in 2013.

#2 SoundMaster

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Posted 15 January 2013 - 10:34 PM

I'm a buyer. Niese is one of those 'sneaky value' type arms = solid GB%, decent K rates, generally solid ERA, calls MetCo his home. Love me some Niese.

#3 phoenixbases

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 07:46 AM

Shhh....

#4 Jack Straw

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 07:56 AM

The days of being able to draft guys like Niese ( ok numbers, but great metrics) in the later rounds are long gone.
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#5 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:18 PM

Not much chatter about this guy. Put up solid numbers last year and he can be had for a relatively cheap price this year. Plus, just got named Mets' Opening Day starter. Could take that next step this year, though he doesn't K very many.
FFB 12 Team Standard 4 Keeper lose the draft pick the keeper was taken in
QB: Romo RB: Ogbonnaya, Pierre Thomas WR: Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Josh Gordon (K, 16th) TE: Jimmy Graham (K, 3rd) D/ST: New England K: Nick Folk Bench: Percy Harvin (K, FA) Justin Blackmon (K, FA) Toby Gerhart, Darren Sproles, Andre Brown, Danny Amendola

#6 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:23 PM

He's very 'meh'. Not worth it. You could piece together his stat line from guys on the waiver wire.

#7 FantasyShmantasy

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:29 PM

I like him this year. I got him in round 15 in my mock draft tonight and would be thrilled to get that in actuality.

#8 Triple Short Of a Cycle

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:47 PM

He's very 'meh'. Not worth it. You could piece together his stat line from guys on the waiver wire.

-----------------------------------------

Like who?
14 team head to head points non keeper

C- Jason Castro
1B - Eric Hosmer
2B - Dustin Pedroia
SS - Brad Miller
3B - Josh Donaldson
OF - Andrew McCutchen,Kole Calhoun,Angel Pagan
DH - Aaron Hill

Bench -
DL -

SP - Jose Fernandez,James Shields,Gerrit Cole,Justin Masterson
RP - Sergio Romo,Sergio Santos

Bench - Chris Archer,Clay Buchholz,Joe Kelly,Noah Syndergarrd,Yordano Ventura,Drew Smyly,Nathan Eovaldi
DL - Matt Harrison
Trades -

#9 Sine_cera

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 02:29 PM

He's very 'meh'. Not worth it. You could piece together his stat line from guys on the waiver wire.


In what kind of league are you in cause in the leagues that I'm in it's pretty hard to find guys on the waiver wire who had a 3.40 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last season. All that's left there on waiver wires are the Barry Zito's and Gavin Floyd's.

2-start week vs the Padres and Mighty Marlins. I'm liking me some Niese this week.

Edited by Sine_cera, 30 March 2013 - 02:30 PM.

14-Team Dynasty League (H2H - 4th Year)
CY.Molina     1BJ.Votto     2B - K.Wong

SS - J.J.Hardy     3B - E.Encarnacion
OF - G.Stanton, C.Dickerson, J.Heyward

Util - L.Duda, J.Morneau

Bench - S.Choo, S.Pearce, AJ Pollock, O.Taveras, R.Castillo, J.Profar, J.Villar, L.Valbuena

P - S.Strasburg, M.Scherzer, S.Gray, M.Cain, H.Bailey, G.Richards, M.Shoemaker, C.Carrasco, D.Duffy

RP - J.Nathan, C.Janssen, S.Castillo, K.Giles

 

 

12-Team Keeper League (H2H - 5th Year)

CC.Santana     1B - P.Fielder     2B - M.Betts

SS - T.Tulowitzki     3B - D.Wright

OF - C.Carter, A. McCutchen, M.Cuddyer

Bench - L.Duda, D.Mesoraco, D.Span, K.Wong, M.Byrd, C.Crawford,

P - C.Sale, M.Scherzer, D.Price, A,Cobb, J. deGrom, C.McHugh, M.Stroman

RP - S.Doolittle, G.Perkins, F.Rodriguez, D.Storen

 


#10 ulysses

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 03:03 PM

He's very 'meh'. Not worth it. You could piece together his stat line from guys on the waiver wire.


completely disagree. he is not waiver fodder. He should be owned in all respectable leagues. he's a very solid producer, not going to win a cy young or anything but hes a nice part of your staff.

#11 elrey

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 03:11 PM

I think he means you can get those numbers from just streaming the right matchups instead of one particular guy off the wire. While it's arguable, I'd rather have a reliable guy like Niese who I can trust instead of gambling with a bunch of random scrubs.

#12 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 03:26 PM

His K% has been steadily under 20% every year of his career. That's why he's 'meh'

#13 Neymar

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 03:45 PM

His K% has been steadily under 20% every year of his career. That's why he's 'meh'


The only pitching category you use is Ks?

Anyway...the fact of the matter is he gets decent Ks, and provides a good ERA and WHIP. He's not a super stud, but he is a very good #3 for fantasy purposes. He's not really going to hurt you anywhere except perhaps in Wins, which are nearly impossible to predict anyway.

Edited by The Harsh, 30 March 2013 - 04:30 PM.
I'm sure you can make your points without being condescending. Thanks.


#14 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 04:42 PM

Not sure why you guys are all of a sudden gaga over Niese's ERA and WHIP. The guy had the exact same peripheral stats last year that he did the previous two years when his whip was over 1.40. Last year the BABIP dropped 60 points. Thats all that changed.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre, 30 March 2013 - 04:42 PM.


#15 Sine_cera

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 04:49 PM

Not sure why you guys are all of a sudden gaga over Niese's ERA and WHIP. The guy had the exact same peripheral stats last year that he did the previous two years when his whip was over 1.40. Last year the BABIP dropped 60 points. Thats all that changed.


I guess it didn't help him that his LOB% wasn't 67% like in 2011. One of the main reasons he had a 4.40 ERA despite having a 3.36 FIP and 3.28 xFIP....

Edited by Sine_cera, 30 March 2013 - 04:51 PM.

14-Team Dynasty League (H2H - 4th Year)
CY.Molina     1BJ.Votto     2B - K.Wong

SS - J.J.Hardy     3B - E.Encarnacion
OF - G.Stanton, C.Dickerson, J.Heyward

Util - L.Duda, J.Morneau

Bench - S.Choo, S.Pearce, AJ Pollock, O.Taveras, R.Castillo, J.Profar, J.Villar, L.Valbuena

P - S.Strasburg, M.Scherzer, S.Gray, M.Cain, H.Bailey, G.Richards, M.Shoemaker, C.Carrasco, D.Duffy

RP - J.Nathan, C.Janssen, S.Castillo, K.Giles

 

 

12-Team Keeper League (H2H - 5th Year)

CC.Santana     1B - P.Fielder     2B - M.Betts

SS - T.Tulowitzki     3B - D.Wright

OF - C.Carter, A. McCutchen, M.Cuddyer

Bench - L.Duda, D.Mesoraco, D.Span, K.Wong, M.Byrd, C.Crawford,

P - C.Sale, M.Scherzer, D.Price, A,Cobb, J. deGrom, C.McHugh, M.Stroman

RP - S.Doolittle, G.Perkins, F.Rodriguez, D.Storen

 


#16 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 04:53 PM


Not sure why you guys are all of a sudden gaga over Niese's ERA and WHIP. The guy had the exact same peripheral stats last year that he did the previous two years when his whip was over 1.40. Last year the BABIP dropped 60 points. Thats all that changed.


Exact same peripherals? Really?

I guess it didn't help him that his LOB% wasn't 67% like in 2011. One of the main reasons he had a 4.40 ERA despite having a 3.36 FIP and 3.28 xFIP....


LOB% is not a peripheral statistic.

His SwStrk% was at 8% in each of the last three years. FStrike% at 60%. K% at 19% and BB% between 6%-7%.

I used to like him, but there's been no growth.

#17 Zumayaaaa

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 04:55 PM

Solid back end starter, I was high on him last season and his bad luck reversed putting up a nice year. I don't think there is much room for growth, but he could put up a similar season to 2012. I do believe Andre is right, in standard sized leagues (12 teams, 7-9 pitching slots-1250-1400 IP) you could just stream matchups and get similar results. I've avoided guys like Niese because in the leagues I play in he'll likely end up on waivers at some point. Its not for everyone though, and some prefer the solid stable skills that Niese offers, which is a solid fantasy #4/5

#18 cavalier

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:28 PM

Here's a nifty stat. Niese has pitched at least 6 innings in his last 22 starts. Longest streak in the majors.
16 Team H2H Dynasty [Year 6] [1B/3B,2B/SS,2 UT,4 OF] [R,HR,TB,RBI,SB,AVG,OPS] [K,QS,W,SV,HD,ERA,WHIP]
C-   Jon Lucroy
1B- Prince Fielder (DL)
2B- Jason Kipnis
3B- Will Middlebrooks (DL)
SS- Evereth Cabrera
2B/SS- Jean Segura
1B/3B- Casey McGehee
OF- Mike Trout
OF- Alex Rios
OF- Khris Davis
OF- Melky Cabrera
UT- Ben Revere
UT- Marcell Ozuna
BN- Juan Francisco, Derek Norris, Darin Ruf, Chris Colabello
Minors- Grant Green (AAA), Mookie Betts (AAA)
SP- James Shields, Zack Greinke, Matt Moore (DL), Kris Medlen (DL), Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Niese, Yordano Ventura, Brandon Workman, Jake Odorizzi, Danny Salazar, Tsuyoshi Wada, Miguel Gonzalez
RP- Sean Doolittle, Santiago Casilla, Ryan Cook Carlos Carrasco
Minors- Nick Kingham (AAA), Drew Pomeranz (AAA), Rafael Montero (AAA)

#19 Neymar

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:29 PM

Another typical Niese start today:

Niese scattered eight hits (all singles) and two walks while striking out five. The 26-year-old left-hander has now thrown six innings or more in 22 straight starts, the longest such streak in the majors. He's a must-start in all formats.

In QS leagues, this guy is money in the bank.


#20 Blood Brother

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:34 PM

Didn't have a good WHIP today but about 3-4 of the hits were cheap/jam shots. He didn't really get hit hard out there

sucks that they blew the lead in the 7th, only to then score about 4 runs in the bottom half, leaving him with the ND
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B, LF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)