106 replies to this topic

[Zombies]

The million dollar question is can he come close to repeating last season? More RBI last year than anyone in the NL, including top 3 pick Ryan Braun. Moving the fences in at Petco Park can only help and considering his 2nd half I'd say he has a good shot to come close to last years amazing numbers. I'd say 25-30 HR, 90-100 RBI, 10-15 SB, .280-.285 average and 80-90 runs...He will obviously cost a high draft pick and it could be tough for him to live up to that kind of draft position. Still, he should continue to produce at a high level this season.

[parrothead]

I remember reading an article about him going into last season where it said the guy just doesnt hit enough fly balls to be a HR hitter.  I guess the flyball average is about 37%, Headley has been declining for years and continued last year down to under 32%, but Headley had a ridiculous HR to FB rate over 20% which is likely not sustainable.

Here are some things working against Headley:
1. Ridiculous HR to Fly Ball ratio, up over 20% I would probably expect somewhere in the 13-15 range which still would be much higher than any other year other than 2012, so even that might be a high estimate also his fly ball percentage is continuing to drop.

2. Distance also shows a little bit of unsustainability - 35% of his HR were "just enough"

3. Average distance of flyball and HR probably shouldnt of produced the number of HRs that it did.
All of these "new" stats, which I have read about this offseason and last, particularly with my Headley decision lead me to believe he probably wont repeat.

I own the guy for $6 in a 130 keeper league, Im a Padre Fan...how can I not keep him?  One of the reasons Im considering NOT keeping him is because I dont think he will repeat AND I think some people will and he might go for $12-15 on the open market, which is big money taken away from another team that I think would be ill advised.  That said, we might be headed for an expansion year and if I dont keep him he for sure will go in the expansion draft and my plan of sending a "time bomb" to someone for $10-12 and overvalued will go for not.  Tough call.

[Jack Straw]

I think he is a decent player but I don't see how he will be a value pick where he will end up being drafted.  I would probably take Edwin and Beltre over him maybe Zimmerman and A-ram as well.

[Jack Straw]

As a $6 keeper, I do think that is a no brainer though.

[parrothead]

 Jack Straw, on 16 January 2013 - 08:25 AM, said:

As a $6 keeper, I do think that is a no brainer though.

6 in a 130? So equal to 12 in normal 260.  I looked at our mock draft we have going on this site, 12 teams and he was taken in the 6th round he was the 7th 3b off the board (8th if you include the guy who took Hanley as his 3bman) within a round Pablo lawrie and one other came off the board.  

Your right in that 6 in a 130 is probably a value, bu here is the thing at my ci spot.

Am I better off with Moustakas or belt for $1, which the 5 savings could turn a hunter pence 12 type to a value Justin upton type plus have another owner waste 12 on Headley and blow their cap space?  Also it's a keeper league, championship teams average a lot of turnover, if Headley is "avg" at 6 he won't be a very good trade commodity later compared to maybe one of the dollar guys, that's another factor, the keeper appeal in a high priced non keeper or expiring contract deal down the line.

[johnSnow123]

I knew Headley was big in the second half of last year, but I had no idea that he lead the league in RBI after the break!! He had more than Cabrera!

What do you think that means for him in 2013?

[damana]

I might take him before Hanley but definitely not Beltre.  Beltre is elite talent that is consistent year in and year out.  Here is an article that says Headley is due to regress:

http://baseballguys....hase-headley-2/

I think that if you can get good value then I would jump on him.  Taking him too early can really be a mistake though.

Edited by damana, 11 February 2013 - 07:05 PM.

[Neymar]

He's definitely on my list of guys I'm willing to draft a little early to secure.  I think he has another nice season in him.

[iAugust]

He definitely proved himself as a legit option at 3B last year but he's not going to maintain the 21.4 HR/FB% nor will he come close to 115 RBI again. I wouldn't take him over Beltre, Longoria, Wright or maybe even Zimmerman.

I see something like .280, 20 HR, 85 RBI, 80 R, 15 SB

[Neymar]

 iAugust, on 11 February 2013 - 08:02 PM, said:

I wouldn't take him over Beltre, Longoria, Wright or maybe even Zimmerman.

??

I don't think anybody would take him over any of those guys.  He's currently ranked #64 on Yahoo...Zimm is 45.  Not many are going to reach 2 full rounds at the beginning of the draft to get Headley.  All the other guys you listed are even higher.  And you forgot to mention Miggy, Hanley and Lawrie (I'd take him before Lawrie for sure), all ranked higher than Headley on Yahoo.  So as the #7-8 3B off the board...I like him a lot.

Edited by Neymar, 11 February 2013 - 10:30 PM.

[jimbo504]

Fences moved in, and it is a contract year for Headley. I think he has a big year.

[ballfan4141]

jammed his thumb.

[BigPapi44]

Sent for X-rays.  Hold your breath.

[Zombies]

Latest word is he could miss Opening Day...No good...

[sasnumberonefan]

Not too high on him this year, especially considering where he is being drafted. I'd rather take Prado or Zimmerman a few rounds later.

[jb_power]

 sasnumberonefan, on 18 March 2013 - 11:25 AM, said:

Not too high on him this year, especially considering where he is being drafted. I'd rather take Prado or Zimmerman a few rounds later.

Zimmerman has and should go ahead of Headley in every draft, auction

[sasnumberonefan]

Not the mocks/drafts I have participated in. But if they are even going in the same spot, I take Zim 10/10 times.

[pnoozi]

 ballfan4141, on 17 March 2013 - 05:34 PM, said:

jammed his thumb.

I jammed my thumb playing basketball a few days ago... I can't even hold a cup of coffee.

[BigPapi44]

A jammed thumb or sprain would be best case scenario, my concern would be if he's seeing a specialist there may be some ligament damage.  Hold your breath.

[sasnumberonefan]

Hopefully this isn't Justin Upton 2.0