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Jose Reyes 2013 Outlook


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#1 OrangeCrush

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 07:59 AM

Now that Reyes is moving to the A.L. and to a team with some serious offensive talent, what do we expect from him in 2013. I have to imagine his run totals should increase but I'm not sure his SB potential is anything more than 40 bags at this stage of the game. The Rodger Center is known for its hitter friendly atmosphere so his HRs could increase but with Jose you never can tell. Thoughts? Possible project?




#2 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 11:31 AM

Reyes is a steal right now at his 21.6 ADP, probably a better/safer value than Tulo (18.6) or Starlin (36.2). Reyes should push 15 HR, but what I'm most excited about is his potential push up towards .315+ due to the fast turf which will lead to a lot of extra infield hits for Reyes -- a lot of those high bouncers and grounders will scoot by infielders.

I'm thinking he's gonna be somewhere in this range...

.310 - 110 - 14 - 65 - 42

#3 cymbaline

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:25 PM

Reyes is a steal right now at his 21.6 ADP, probably a better/safer value than Tulo (18.6) or Starlin (36.2). Reyes should push 15 HR, but what I'm most excited about is his potential push up towards .315+ due to the fast turf which will lead to a lot of extra infield hits for Reyes -- a lot of those high bouncers and grounders will scoot by infielders.

I'm thinking he's gonna be somewhere in this range...

.310 - 110 - 14 - 65 - 42



That projection seems optimistic but reasonable to me assuming that the guy doesn't get injured.
After all this is Jose Reyes -- a guy who missed around 200 games over the last 4 years.

#4 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:55 PM

Little early for me to be projecting injuries, he didn't miss any time last year.

Edited by RespectMyAuthority, 16 January 2013 - 01:55 PM.


#5 jsp2014

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 01:59 PM


Reyes is a steal right now at his 21.6 ADP, probably a better/safer value than Tulo (18.6) or Starlin (36.2). Reyes should push 15 HR, but what I'm most excited about is his potential push up towards .315+ due to the fast turf which will lead to a lot of extra infield hits for Reyes -- a lot of those high bouncers and grounders will scoot by infielders.

I'm thinking he's gonna be somewhere in this range...

.310 - 110 - 14 - 65 - 42



That projection seems optimistic but reasonable to me assuming that the guy doesn't get injured.
After all this is Jose Reyes -- a guy who missed around 200 games over the last 4 years.



Yeah but like 150 of those were in one year.

He's risky, sure, and he's a decent bet to hit the DL with some sort of leg ailment. But he hasn't declined much and he's on the best offense of his career and doesn't hit after the pitcher anymore.
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#6 jb_power

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Posted 16 January 2013 - 02:22 PM

Games played over the last 4 years: 2009 = 36, 2010 = 133, 2011 = 126, 2012 = 160 ... which one is the outlier?

#7 klove42

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 08:18 AM

Games played over the last 4 years: 2009 = 36, 2010 = 133, 2011 = 126, 2012 = 160 ... which one is the outlier?


Exactly why I am sketpical of him. I don't want to expect a full season from him just becauase last year was... but its just funny how he plays a full season as soon as he gets away from the Mets doctors.
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#8 archibjd

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 09:09 AM

I'm a biased Jay fan and think he has 20 homer potential at the Rogers Centre to go with 40+ SB.

He's boom or bust and could be a top 5 player if healthy for a full season and the clear number one SS.

I would definitely target him in the 2nd round and probably regret it later when he gets injured.

#9 OrangeCrush

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Posted 19 January 2013 - 10:41 AM

I'm a biased Jay fan and think he has 20 homer potential at the Rogers Centre to go with 40+ SB.

He's boom or bust and could be a top 5 player if healthy for a full season and the clear number one SS.

I would definitely target him in the 2nd round and probably regret it later when he gets injured.


I don't think your to far off by suggesting Reyes could hit 20 bombs in that stadium. He still in his prime and def has the skill set to accomplish the feat. If he can stay healthy I don't see any reason he can't go 300 15-17 Hrs 110 Runs 60-65 RBI and 45 SB. That would be a stellar season for him and one he could accomplish if healthy.

#10 d_wag

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 05:01 AM

Reyes is a steal right now at his 21.6 ADP, probably a better/safer value than Tulo (18.6) or Starlin (36.2). Reyes should push 15 HR, but what I'm most excited about is his potential push up towards .315+ due to the fast turf which will lead to a lot of extra infield hits for Reyes -- a lot of those high bouncers and grounders will scoot by infielders.

I'm thinking he's gonna be somewhere in this range...

.310 - 110 - 14 - 65 - 42

.
while the fast turf may help reyes' numbers, it certainly won't help his chances of staying healthy. the turf is fast cause its hard, and for someone who has a history of lower leg injuries, it's not a good scene to be playing half your games there. even if by miracle he avoids a DL stint i question how much he'll be running hitting in front of HR guys joey bats and EE. in comparison to farrell, gibbons is likely to be more conservative on the base paths.

he certainly has some good upside but comes with a lot of risk. on that note, that makes bonifacio a good sleeper, as he'd likely step in at SS if reyes goes down.

#11 PRoSPx

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 09:05 AM

I'm a biased Jay fan and think he has 20 homer potential at the Rogers Centre to go with 40+ SB.

He's boom or bust and could be a top 5 player if healthy for a full season and the clear number one SS.

I would definitely target him in the 2nd round and probably regret it later when he gets injured.


I'll give you the clear cut #1 SS. But I highly doubt he's a top 5 bat, let alone player. I could see him being a top 15 bat, which at SS would be a damn good value to where he's getting drafted.

#12 archibjd

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 09:45 AM

I'll give you the clear cut #1 SS. But I highly doubt he's a top 5 bat, let alone player. I could see him being a top 15 bat, which at SS would be a damn good value to where he's getting drafted.


So if a 300+ average with around 20 homers and 40+ SB at the SS position could be guaranteed from Reyes (which of course it isn't) you wouldn't take that as a top 5 pick? That is very clear differentiation over the next best SS. If you draft an OF or 1st baseman with a top 5 pick it is much easier for someone to draft the same position later on in the draft and come close to the value you drafted with your top 5 pick. I had Trout, Harper, Butler and Craig on many of my teams last year. I guess Ian Desmond outproduced his value significantly (especially considering he was hurt) but with SS there is not the same hitting potential (since they are there for their D) that having Reyes hit his potential would be a huge advantage over other teams with their SS as opposed to a Miggy or Braun or Kemp.

I`m not stating Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick but rather his potential is top 5 which is partly based on the position he plays. He probably has about a 50% chance of getting injured and going on the DL and about a 10 to 15 percent chance of hitting his potential.

#13 klove42

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 11:26 AM



I'll give you the clear cut #1 SS. But I highly doubt he's a top 5 bat, let alone player. I could see him being a top 15 bat, which at SS would be a damn good value to where he's getting drafted.


So if a 300+ average with around 20 homers and 40+ SB at the SS position could be guaranteed from Reyes (which of course it isn't) you wouldn't take that as a top 5 pick? That is very clear differentiation over the next best SS. If you draft an OF or 1st baseman with a top 5 pick it is much easier for someone to draft the same position later on in the draft and come close to the value you drafted with your top 5 pick. I had Trout, Harper, Butler and Craig on many of my teams last year. I guess Ian Desmond outproduced his value significantly (especially considering he was hurt) but with SS there is not the same hitting potential (since they are there for their D) that having Reyes hit his potential would be a huge advantage over other teams with their SS as opposed to a Miggy or Braun or Kemp.

I`m not stating Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick but rather his potential is top 5 which is partly based on the position he plays. He probably has about a 50% chance of getting injured and going on the DL and about a 10 to 15 percent chance of hitting his potential.


If he does hit 20 and 40 from the ss position then yes he does deserve to be a top 5 pick, but I don't think he will get those 20 homers. He never hit that many in his career, and just because he moves to a hitters doesnt mean he will set a career high in homers especially since he hasn't hit more then 11 since 08 (I know
Some of that has to do with health). If he is healthy I believe you can count on ten homers 100 runs and 40 steals which is amazing from the SS position, but the health will be the question
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#14 yoda

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 01:48 PM

This is probably the first year I would really consider Reyes given the lack of depth at SS.
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#15 Dissection

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 02:34 PM

I don't think I'll draft him but I'll target him through trade.He 1st/2nd half splits are well known so I'll probably make a move in May if he follows the same path.

Edited by Dissection, 21 January 2013 - 02:34 PM.


#16 PRoSPx

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:58 PM



I'll give you the clear cut #1 SS. But I highly doubt he's a top 5 bat, let alone player. I could see him being a top 15 bat, which at SS would be a damn good value to where he's getting drafted.


So if a 300+ average with around 20 homers and 40+ SB at the SS position could be guaranteed from Reyes (which of course it isn't) you wouldn't take that as a top 5 pick? That is very clear differentiation over the next best SS. If you draft an OF or 1st baseman with a top 5 pick it is much easier for someone to draft the same position later on in the draft and come close to the value you drafted with your top 5 pick. I had Trout, Harper, Butler and Craig on many of my teams last year. I guess Ian Desmond outproduced his value significantly (especially considering he was hurt) but with SS there is not the same hitting potential (since they are there for their D) that having Reyes hit his potential would be a huge advantage over other teams with their SS as opposed to a Miggy or Braun or Kemp.

I`m not stating Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick but rather his potential is top 5 which is partly based on the position he plays. He probably has about a 50% chance of getting injured and going on the DL and about a 10 to 15 percent chance of hitting his potential.


If he does hit 20 and 40 from the ss position then yes he does deserve to be a top 5 pick, but I don't think he will get those 20 homers. He never hit that many in his career, and just because he moves to a hitters doesnt mean he will set a career high in homers especially since he hasn't hit more then 11 since 08 (I know
Some of that has to do with health). If he is healthy I believe you can count on ten homers 100 runs and 40 steals which is amazing from the SS position, but the health will be the question


A 20 HR 40 SB Shortstop isn't automatically a top 5 pick. The guy will be limited in RBI right away, if you notice top picks (bats) all hit in either the 3 or 4 other than the phenom known as Mike Trout. Trout was 30/49 as a rookie with amazing RBI for a leadoff hitter.

You would take 20 HR 40 SB 110 R 65 RBI at SS over someone putting up a better BA with 30 HR 20 SB 100 R 100 RBI (with upside for even more out of the) OF?

Note the better BA 30 HR, 20 SB, 100 R, 100 RBI line is basically what I think Kemp, CarGo, McCutchen, and Hamilton (throw Stanton in here too) would conservatively at least average out to.

#17 klove42

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:18 PM




I'll give you the clear cut #1 SS. But I highly doubt he's a top 5 bat, let alone player. I could see him being a top 15 bat, which at SS would be a damn good value to where he's getting drafted.


So if a 300+ average with around 20 homers and 40+ SB at the SS position could be guaranteed from Reyes (which of course it isn't) you wouldn't take that as a top 5 pick? That is very clear differentiation over the next best SS. If you draft an OF or 1st baseman with a top 5 pick it is much easier for someone to draft the same position later on in the draft and come close to the value you drafted with your top 5 pick. I had Trout, Harper, Butler and Craig on many of my teams last year. I guess Ian Desmond outproduced his value significantly (especially considering he was hurt) but with SS there is not the same hitting potential (since they are there for their D) that having Reyes hit his potential would be a huge advantage over other teams with their SS as opposed to a Miggy or Braun or Kemp.

I`m not stating Jose Reyes is a top 5 pick but rather his potential is top 5 which is partly based on the position he plays. He probably has about a 50% chance of getting injured and going on the DL and about a 10 to 15 percent chance of hitting his potential.


If he does hit 20 and 40 from the ss position then yes he does deserve to be a top 5 pick, but I don't think he will get those 20 homers. He never hit that many in his career, and just because he moves to a hitters doesnt mean he will set a career high in homers especially since he hasn't hit more then 11 since 08 (I know
Some of that has to do with health). If he is healthy I believe you can count on ten homers 100 runs and 40 steals which is amazing from the SS position, but the health will be the question


A 20 HR 40 SB Shortstop isn't automatically a top 5 pick. The guy will be limited in RBI right away, if you notice top picks (bats) all hit in either the 3 or 4 other than the phenom known as Mike Trout. Trout was 30/49 as a rookie with amazing RBI for a leadoff hitter.

You would take 20 HR 40 SB 110 R 65 RBI at SS over someone putting up a better BA with 30 HR 20 SB 100 R 100 RBI (with upside for even more out of the) OF?

Note the better BA 30 HR, 20 SB, 100 R, 100 RBI line is basically what I think Kemp, CarGo, McCutchen, and Hamilton (throw Stanton in here too) would conservatively at least average out to.


I didnt say automatically, but I said he deserves to be. You could easily make an argument for him there. And the thing is that SS is also so thin this year, you just named five OFs who can all put up similar lines. OF is pretty deep.
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#18 PRoSPx

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 05:55 PM

I didnt say automatically, but I said he deserves to be. You could easily make an argument for him there. And the thing is that SS is also so thin this year, you just named five OFs who can all put up similar lines. OF is pretty deep.


OF is deep but you do need 3 of them, plus you have a UTL. Me personally I don't really go after depth as much as I go for the best player possible to start the draft. This year yes I would take Cano 4th overall just because he is that close to all the other OFs going right after him that I give him an edge being a 2nd baseman.


But other than that I want the best bat possible. I'd rather have the extra 10 HR and 35 RBI over 20 extra SB and a slight increase in runs. Cause chances are I can find a SS does exactly what Reyes does minus 10 - 12 HRs and a handful of R/RBI(my 65 RBI projection is fairy generous).

Yes you could make a similar argument for OF but honestly are you going to find 3 other ones like that? Also keep in mind most utility spots are filled with OFs as well. When you do find the next tier in OF how high of draft picks are we talking about investing?

Let's use Granderosn as an example next to their names is where they went in the rotoworld mock draft I.

Granderson (32nd) and Reyes (20 HR 40 SB 110 R 65 RBI) (assuming him to be the 5th pick).

vs

Top 5 OF (Kemp, McCutchen, CarGo, Hamilton who went 5th - 10th) and Ian Desmond (66th), or Alcides Escobar (115th), or Aybar (197th), or Dee Gordon (undrafted).

So I'll use Escobar as the other SS and compare that combo with Reyes and Granderson. I'll start Reyes projection with the 20 HR 40 SB theory. As well as generously project Granderson.

Escobar: .290, 10 HR, 40 SB, 100 R, 50 RBI + OF: .300, 30 HR, 20 SB, 100 R, 100 RBI
comes out to: .295+, 40 HR, 60 SB, 200 R, 150 RBI

Granderson .265, 40 HR, 110 R, 110 RBI, 20 SB + Jose Reyes: .295, 20 HR, 40 SB, 110 R, 65 RBI
comes out too: .280, 60 HR, 60 SB, 220 R, 175 RBI

So Jose + Granderson are: -.15 points in BA, +20 HR, = in SB, +20 R, +25 RBI. But you used a top 5 pick and a 3rd round pick. Compared to a top 5 pick and a 10th round pick.

Sure I could have picked a different OF and the projections would have been slightly different. But any good hitting OF that has one of two things if not both on their side which is past production and/or mad upside will be drafted in the first 6 to 7 rounds. So pick your best OF and put him up against Ian Desmond.

Needelss to say that is why I don't think 20 HR 40 SB is enough in itself to get top 5 honors for a SS. Yeah Cano doesn't steal the bases

Also I don't value SBs much in roto. SBs to me is generally some what of a crap shoot for the middle teir guys. It always seems like 1 to 3 teams that are way at the top then there's that 1 or 2 teams who can't do anything in SBs then a dog fight from 3 to 9 in SBs. Which is a category because of this I generally can buy fairly easily through trades or the waiver wire.

#19 klove42

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 08:47 PM


I didnt say automatically, but I said he deserves to be. You could easily make an argument for him there. And the thing is that SS is also so thin this year, you just named five OFs who can all put up similar lines. OF is pretty deep.


OF is deep but you do need 3 of them, plus you have a UTL. Me personally I don't really go after depth as much as I go for the best player possible to start the draft. This year yes I would take Cano 4th overall just because he is that close to all the other OFs going right after him that I give him an edge being a 2nd baseman.


But other than that I want the best bat possible. I'd rather have the extra 10 HR and 35 RBI over 20 extra SB and a slight increase in runs. Cause chances are I can find a SS does exactly what Reyes does minus 10 - 12 HRs and a handful of R/RBI(my 65 RBI projection is fairy generous).

Yes you could make a similar argument for OF but honestly are you going to find 3 other ones like that? Also keep in mind most utility spots are filled with OFs as well. When you do find the next tier in OF how high of draft picks are we talking about investing?

Let's use Granderosn as an example next to their names is where they went in the rotoworld mock draft I.

Granderson (32nd) and Reyes (20 HR 40 SB 110 R 65 RBI) (assuming him to be the 5th pick).

vs

Top 5 OF (Kemp, McCutchen, CarGo, Hamilton who went 5th - 10th) and Ian Desmond (66th), or Alcides Escobar (115th), or Aybar (197th), or Dee Gordon (undrafted).

So I'll use Escobar as the other SS and compare that combo with Reyes and Granderson. I'll start Reyes projection with the 20 HR 40 SB theory. As well as generously project Granderson.

Escobar: .290, 10 HR, 40 SB, 100 R, 50 RBI + OF: .300, 30 HR, 20 SB, 100 R, 100 RBI
comes out to: .295+, 40 HR, 60 SB, 200 R, 150 RBI

Granderson .265, 40 HR, 110 R, 110 RBI, 20 SB + Jose Reyes: .295, 20 HR, 40 SB, 110 R, 65 RBI
comes out too: .280, 60 HR, 60 SB, 220 R, 175 RBI

So Jose + Granderson are: -.15 points in BA, +20 HR, = in SB, +20 R, +25 RBI. But you used a top 5 pick and a 3rd round pick. Compared to a top 5 pick and a 10th round pick.

Sure I could have picked a different OF and the projections would have been slightly different. But any good hitting OF that has one of two things if not both on their side which is past production and/or mad upside will be drafted in the first 6 to 7 rounds. So pick your best OF and put him up against Ian Desmond.

Needelss to say that is why I don't think 20 HR 40 SB is enough in itself to get top 5 honors for a SS. Yeah Cano doesn't steal the bases

Also I don't value SBs much in roto. SBs to me is generally some what of a crap shoot for the middle teir guys. It always seems like 1 to 3 teams that are way at the top then there's that 1 or 2 teams who can't do anything in SBs then a dog fight from 3 to 9 in SBs. Which is a category because of this I generally can buy fairly easily through trades or the waiver wire.


I do agree with you here, even though I was kind of arguing why Reyes could be a top 5 SS, but I personally wouldn't take him there (or any ss this year or last) in the top 5 just because like you said you can grab someone who does it all in the top 5. Escobar is currently one of my sleeper SS this year too, and he was very under rated from a fantasy stand point last year.
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#20 PRoSPx

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 05:31 PM

I do agree with you here, even though I was kind of arguing why Reyes could be a top 5 SS, but I personally wouldn't take him there (or any ss this year or last) in the top 5 just because like you said you can grab someone who does it all in the top 5. Escobar is currently one of my sleeper SS this year too, and he was very under rated from a fantasy stand point last year.


Yeah you and me both on Escobar. But my whole theory comes tumbling down if someone beats you too all those SSes and you get stuck taking left overs post 20th, at that point you're just hoping to hit the lottery.