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Chris Tillman 2013 Outlook


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#1 The King Maker

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 06:23 PM

He put up some good stats last year, after coming up from the minors. Yet, he's going pretty late in drafts, albeit understandably because his performance in the majors before last year was atrocious.

Pro:

-A nice velocity spike back to his days when people considered him to be a top of the rotation caliber prospect. Average fastball is back at over 92 MPH, which is around the same average FB velocity as Felix Hernendez or CC Sabathia last year, for reference.

-His secondary pitches, all graded out as positive value last year on Fangraph's pitch value meter. From personal scouting, his curve is an excellent offering in my opinion.

-His swinging strike percentage rose to a career high 8.1%, which would be right below Jordan Zimmerman or David Price from last year in terms of just pure numbers (Obviously they are better pitchers).

-He is young, will be 25 this season, and is a former top prospect that could be figuring things out.

-He had a very nice season at AAA, posting a sub 3.00 FIP, with 9+K/9 and 3 K/BB ratio.

-Last year, the Orioles displayed a very good bullpen, so that could possibly help him avoid losing stats to runners he left on when taken out of the game.

-The Hardball Times did an article on predictive FIP in the minors and Tillman was the best in the International League. http://www.hardballt...ive-fip-part-1/

-He pitched about 175 IP last season between the Majors and Minors, so he should be good for 200 IP this year without hitting any kind of a wall.


Cons:

-He's failed before on the MLB stage.

-He did get lucky last year as his FIP was over 4 (4.25 to be exact), so he could be due for regression.

-He plays in an offensive park, in a very good offensive division.

-He is prone to HR's as a fly ball pitcher.

______________

Personally, I really like him as a sleeper, but just would love to hear what other's think of him. He seems somewhat polarizing as most post hype sleepers tend to be, because the potential to be either great or terrible is evident. I also believe Rick Peterson re-worked his delivery to get the velocity back in his fastball.

#2 baltimore_boy

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Posted 17 January 2013 - 09:57 PM

Tillman should be in for a solid year. He really shows improvement last year and should produce a decent year. However, with the improvement of the division for hitting, he may end up being a streamer because of the number of bad matchups that he'll get throughout the year. In the end, the numbers should be good, but it may be a rough ride along the way.
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#3 sunnyside

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 12:20 AM

I play AL-only. I have Tillman at 106 overall, but I have ranked quality starters high, planning to punt catcher (play in a one-catcher, 10 team league) and not chase "elite" closers early. For example, I have Dempster, Pettite, and Sanchez in order at 89 - 91; Josh Johnson at 100; Holland at 108, Hammel at 110, and Griffin and Bucholz at 112-113.

#4 klove42

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 08:11 AM

I'm a fan of Tillman just because he does have the talent, but I probably won't be getting him unless he can fall in drafts. That division is still very tough, especially with Toronto improving. He was great against Seattle last year, and I think he will be more of a streaming option this upcoming year.
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#5 Big Tuna

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 10:22 AM

Like him a lot - think he will be available late/for cheap.

#6 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:06 PM

This guy was pretty consistent last year. He also held lefties to a .216 average; if a righty can shut down lefties like that, it is extremely likely he has a fantastic year. Pitching in the AL East is tough all though I do believe that division (hitting wise) will be weaker this year than years past (however they are still likely the best offensive division in baseball), but I think this guy has certainly improved as a pitcher and this is no fluke. He is not a 2.93 era guy but I also don't believe he is a 4.25 era guy (as his fip would suggest). The raise in velocity is real as he maintained that velocity throughout the year. I wish he threw his cutter more because that has become a pitch that has vastly improved many pitcher in recent history, and his cutter rated out as a plus pitch. Even when he sucked his change-up was still graded as a plus pitch so I wonder if he tosses more of those as well. He will likely need to up his k-rate to match his babip because that will rise, but he dropped his walk rate dramatically last year and that would go a long way in keeping him a legit fantasy starter. His contact rate was also much improved last year, which matches the fact that his overall repertoire was good last year. I think this guy has 15 win, 3.50 era type potential but that is probably shooting a tad high. I think 13 wins, 3.80 era, 1.18 whip 150 k's in 195 ip sounds about right to me.

Edited by Red Sox Nation, 18 January 2013 - 11:06 PM.


#7 jsp2014

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:49 PM

shaboom
I will never draft Francisco Liriano ever again.

#8 klove42

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:40 PM

Good article today on Fangraphs about Tillman and his sleeper status for 2013: http://www.fangraphs...illman-sleeper/
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#9 PRoSPx

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 04:46 PM

Good article today on Fangraphs about Tillman and his sleeper status for 2013: http://www.fangraphs...illman-sleeper/


Nice article. This writer has similar theories to me.

#10 PepperPot

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 12:37 PM

Good article today on Fangraphs about Tillman and his sleeper status for 2013: http://www.fangraphs...illman-sleeper/


Here's another Fangraphs article that takes the opposite view on Tillman

http://www.fangraphs...ill-disappoint/
14 Team PPR Dynasty Keeper League

Starters

QB: Andrew Luck
RB: Gio Bernard & DeMarco Murray
WR: Randall Cobb, A.J. Green & Julio Jones
TE: Dennis Pitta
DEF: Patriots
K: Adam Vinatieri

Bench

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Bryce Brown, Devonta Freeman, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael, Lache Seastrunk & C.J. Spiller
WR: Davante Adams, Aaron Dobson, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter & Cody Latimer
TE: Kyle Rudolph & Luke Wilson

#11 klove42

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 12:56 PM


Good article today on Fangraphs about Tillman and his sleeper status for 2013: http://www.fangraphs...illman-sleeper/


Here's another Fangraphs article that takes the opposite view on Tillman

http://www.fangraphs...ill-disappoint/


This is another reason why I love fangraphs, they dont mind posting opposing view points to certain articles so the reader can see every side possible.
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#12 PRoSPx

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 05:00 PM

They make a lot of good points in the article opposing Tillman. While I understand that a .221 BABIP is unobtainable I don't think he will overall regress into "unownable".

I fully expect Tillman's BABIP to be closer to .300, but I think his more controlable peripherals (BB/9, K/9, etc.) will improve through being more expirenced and being another year older.

I expect regression from last year but not a catastrophic regression.

I'm thinking Tillman will be around
3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, K/9 7.45

#13 PRoSPx

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Posted 22 January 2013 - 05:06 PM

I honestly wouldn't doubt it if Tillman produces numbers close to much more sought after pictures such as Adam Wainwright and CJ Wilson.

#14 2ndCitySox

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 01:00 AM

They make a lot of good points in the article opposing Tillman. While I understand that a .221 BABIP is unobtainable I don't think he will overall regress into "unownable".

I fully expect Tillman's BABIP to be closer to .300, but I think his more controlable peripherals (BB/9, K/9, etc.) will improve through being more expirenced and being another year older.

I expect regression from last year but not a catastrophic regression.

I'm thinking Tillman will be around
3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, K/9 7.45


That would be great. I suspect Tillman is going really late in most drafts
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#15 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 01:06 AM

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#16 baltimore_boy

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 12:55 PM


They make a lot of good points in the article opposing Tillman. While I understand that a .221 BABIP is unobtainable I don't think he will overall regress into "unownable".

I fully expect Tillman's BABIP to be closer to .300, but I think his more controlable peripherals (BB/9, K/9, etc.) will improve through being more expirenced and being another year older.

I expect regression from last year but not a catastrophic regression.

I'm thinking Tillman will be around
3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, K/9 7.45


That would be great. I suspect Tillman is going really late in most drafts


I think he went in one of the last few rounds of the first draft on here. He's basically a higher class streamer to me. The kind that you play in a lot of matchups, but just sit instead of drop when he has a tough matchup.
Bring back Ray!

#17 PepperPot

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 01:59 PM

They make a lot of good points in the article opposing Tillman. While I understand that a .221 BABIP is unobtainable I don't think he will overall regress into "unownable".

I fully expect Tillman's BABIP to be closer to .300, but I think his more controlable peripherals (BB/9, K/9, etc.) will improve through being more expirenced and being another year older.

I expect regression from last year but not a catastrophic regression.

I'm thinking Tillman will be around
3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, K/9 7.45


That statement really depends on the kind of leagues you play in. After reading both articles, I kind of favor the information in disappoint article. Look, there is upside with Tillman, but both his strikeout and walk rates are near or below league average. When you couple that with the fact that he's a fly ball pitcher pitching in a hitter's park (a hitter's division for the most part), it gets pretty scary. I think the most interesting part of the article is that while his overall velocity for the season was up, he didn't hold that velocity the whole season through and it even dipped below 90 for a start in September (But if I recall correctly, he left that game early due to a shoulder issue). He did average 93 in his last start against Tampa, but maybe he was pumped up for the catch to pitch Baltimore to division championship, who knows. But the velocity that everyone was excited about early when he pitched against Seattle, did not hold.

I don't fault anyone for picking him in the endgame or making a $1 bid in an AL-Only league, because he will be an easy drop if he regresses to be what he was in the past. I hope he has another year of growth, but for me, he has to strike more batters out and walk less to be more than a streaming option in mixed leagues. I prefer to not stream AL East pitchers unless absolutely necessary, especially ones with his fly ball tendencies.

I hope Tillman improves as an Orioles fan, because until last year, I had him pegged as a back end reliever with how much he had failed at starting. For fantasy purposes, I will probably stay away at the draft and put him on a watch list where I can.
14 Team PPR Dynasty Keeper League

Starters

QB: Andrew Luck
RB: Gio Bernard & DeMarco Murray
WR: Randall Cobb, A.J. Green & Julio Jones
TE: Dennis Pitta
DEF: Patriots
K: Adam Vinatieri

Bench

QB: Alex Smith
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, Bryce Brown, Devonta Freeman, Fred Jackson, Christine Michael, Lache Seastrunk & C.J. Spiller
WR: Davante Adams, Aaron Dobson, DeAndre Hopkins, Justin Hunter & Cody Latimer
TE: Kyle Rudolph & Luke Wilson

#18 whips02

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Posted 27 March 2013 - 04:43 PM

Is Tillman going to start the season on the DL? I read he is nursing a sore abdomen.

Any updated info on this sleeper pitcher?

#19 Orion Braun

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 09:48 PM

Is Tillman going to start the season on the DL? I read he is nursing a sore abdomen.

Any updated info on this sleeper pitcher?


Ready to start on Saturday against the Twins. An encouraging write up on him at Fangraphs as a stream pick for the weekend:

Because Tillman started the season on the disabled list, he went a bit under-drafted relative to his skill level. You’d be wise to jump in and grab him now before the market corrects in advance of his Saturday start. Tillman rocked a 2.93 ERA in 15 starts last year, hiding a less impressive 4.24 FIP, thanks mostly to a .221 BABIP. Still, he posted his best month of the season with his highest BABIP, so he’s shown he can work when the peripherals self-correct. The Twins have already struck out 22 times, thanks in part to Justin Verlander, but they’re also somewhere short of imposing. Take the risk that Tillman isn’t sporting a hangover from his Friday birthday celebrations.
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#20 whips02

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 10:00 PM

Im throwing him saturday....i like the sleeper appeal.