47 replies to this topic

[LyondellBasell]

Contrary to industry belief and my own previous assumptions, I'm coming to believe pitching is actually not deep this year. After maybe the top 15, you could take or leave the rest of the field. You could get yourself an edge taking pitchers early, getting 3 of the top 15 could be huge.

And its not like you'll be missing out on a ton of stud bats either, since in round 2 and 3 you're looking at the Kinslers and Ryan Zimmermans of the world. Nice players, sure. But they are guys you can live without.

[SoundMaster]

LyondellBasell, on 09 February 2013 - 09:53 AM, said:

Contrary to industry belief and my own previous assumptions, I'm coming to believe pitching is actually not deep this year. After maybe the top 15, you could take or leave the rest of the field. You could get yourself an edge taking pitchers early, getting 3 of the top 15 could be huge.

And its not like you'll be missing out on a ton of stud bats either, since in round 2 and 3 you're looking at the Kinslers and Ryan Zimmermans of the world. Nice players, sure. But they are guys you can live without.

I've been debating this myself.     But since Yahoo mock drafts opened, I've found that I can draft 4 premium bats then still land someone of Wainwright's, Scherzer's, or Madbum's caliber as my ace.     Heck if you have the snake 'swing pick', you can land two such arms then go back to bats.

[LyondellBasell]

4 premium bats as in who?

Edited by LyondellBasell, 09 February 2013 - 06:57 PM.

[brockpapersizer]

LyondellBasell, on 09 February 2013 - 09:53 AM, said:

Contrary to industry belief and my own previous assumptions, I'm coming to believe pitching is actually not deep this year. After maybe the top 15, you could take or leave the rest of the field. You could get yourself an edge taking pitchers early, getting 3 of the top 15 could be huge.

And its not like you'll be missing out on a ton of stud bats either, since in round 2 and 3 you're looking at the Kinslers and Ryan Zimmermans of the world. Nice players, sure. But they are guys you can live without.

Waiting for pitching is a myth. It's possible but it's just ask risky as going pitching too early.  People think they can get a bonafide ace in round 6, go for it.  If the right hitter falls to you that warrants waiting on pitching, I strongly encouraging going for a hitter over a pitcher. I just don't advocate going for a hitter purely because you want to wait on pitching.

Theres a lot better pitching in fantasy now then there was 5 years ago, but the bar is higher to compete.

[LyondellBasell]

I have ALWAYS been a wait on pitching guy ... maybe i'm just bored this year and want to employ diff strategies, but i don't think so ... i mean, look at the poster a few up who name drops Wainwright, Scherzer and MadBum as potential lead your staff guys. I could see myself getting fed up with all three.

Scherzer is a perennial tease. i hate him.
MadBum i don't really trust his mercurial velocity.
Wainwright i like to come back strong. But am i really that confident? no.

So look at it, if you like thos guys or the seconad and third tier, fine. it's justifiable. But what are you looking at for a #2 if Wainwright is your ace? a tim hudson or jake peavy type? Pitching is not deep b/c soooooooo much of it is replacable.

Now, if you tell me you can build a killer offense, then i say go ahead. but i don't think you can go into a draft and reasonably expect you can put together an offense that's a sure-fire dominator just by collecting the best bats going in the early rounds.

The hitters just aren't there to justify waiting on pitching.

Edited by LyondellBasell, 09 February 2013 - 08:35 PM.

[2ndCitySox]

Since Carpenter is done...I think Shelby Miller is a lock. Will Rosenthal get a shot? If he cracks the rotatation, what tier would you put him in?

[Whoopie!]

LyondellBasell, on 09 February 2013 - 08:30 PM, said:

I have ALWAYS been a wait on pitching guy ... maybe i'm just bored this year and want to employ diff strategies, but i don't think so ... i mean, look at the poster a few up who name drops Wainwright, Scherzer and MadBum as potential lead your staff guys. I could see myself getting fed up with all three.

Scherzer is a perennial tease. i hate him.
MadBum i don't really trust his mercurial velocity.
Wainwright i like to come back strong. But am i really that confident? no.

So look at it, if you like thos guys or the seconad and third tier, fine. it's justifiable. But what are you looking at for a #2 if Wainwright is your ace? a tim hudson or jake peavy type? Pitching is not deep b/c soooooooo much of it is replacable.

Now, if you tell me you can build a killer offense, then i say go ahead. but i don't think you can go into a draft and reasonably expect you can put together an offense that's a sure-fire dominator just by collecting the best bats going in the early rounds.

The hitters just aren't there to justify waiting on pitching.

I agree on all of this.  There is plenty of solid pitching but very few 'elite' options.  Maybe 8-10 deep??   If u can lock down 2 of those guys, u can gain a clear advantage IMO.

Bats can be found.  Get avg-above avg offensive weapons mixed in with stud pitching,  u are an automatic contender in fantasy baseball.

Having lockdown aces every week over the course of this marathon of a season cant be minimized.

[JFS171]

Whoopie!, on 13 February 2013 - 10:37 AM, said:

Bats can be found.  Get avg-above avg offensive weapons mixed in with stud pitching,  u are an automatic contender in fantasy baseball.

Having lockdown aces every week over the course of this marathon of a season cant be minimized.

Didn't used to subscribe to this belief, and on the whole pitching is more volatile than bats, so there is that concern.  But the best seasons I've had (with the most dominant teams) were built on the shoulders of elite pitching staffs.  When you can roll out 4 or 5 guys every week that you're confident will give you a stud performance at SP, it gives a tremendous advantage.  Especially when you can then turn around and play the hot bat off the wire for a few weeks at a time.

Tends to be my personal bugaboo - I undervalue arms thinking pitching is SOOO deep.  And while quality depth arms can be found very late, quality bats can be as well.  The elite aces anchor your staff's ratios and counting stats, minimizing the chances of torpedoing your staff with a poor start by one of your guys.  It's something I've got to keep in mind this year -- pitching is just as valuable - balance is needed.

I think the days of LIMA successfully dominating leagues are, for the most part, over and gone.

Edited by JFS171, 13 February 2013 - 10:58 AM.