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Lucas Duda 2013 Outlook


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#1 Big Tuna

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 10:37 AM

Was very high on him last year and he was bad....looked better after his stint in the ML.....then breaks his wrist moving furniture - only the Mets....whats the thoughts on him for 2013?  Should have a starting position and a fresh start.

#2 Whoopie!

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 11:09 AM

View PostBig Tuna, on 18 January 2013 - 10:37 AM, said:

Was very high on him last year and he was bad....looked better after his stint in the ML.....then breaks his wrist moving furniture - only the Mets....whats the thoughts on him for 2013?  Should have a starting position and a fresh start.

Undraftable in most leagues.  Should bring some power assuming he stays in the ML's.   But thats the only thing that intrigues me.

Classic waiver wire fodder.

#3 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 06:20 PM

This guy has crazy power.  I could see him going somewhere between the 21st and 23rd round in 12 team leagues depending on team need and personal preference.

#4 d_wag

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 07:29 PM

people are too quick to forget - his '11 season was impressive, even if '12 was a performance/injury write off...........opportunity is there and raw power doesn't go away, if his head and health are in right place could help a lot of fantasy teams in '13 with pick vs. return value

#5 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 09:05 PM

There is a lot to like about Duda.  He will turn 27 next month.  So he is at that ripe breakout age.

Duda has a minor league career triple slash of .284/.380/.469 and a .301/.384/.564 for a .949 OPS in 133 games over 3 years at the AAA level.

Duda had a great 2011 in 100 games at the Major League level where he put up. 292/.370/.482 between his AAA and MLB numbers in 2011 Duda hit a total of 20 HRs in only 430 ABs

I would think hed hit 5th or 6th behind David Wright and Ike Davis.  So I think he will have plenty of RBI opportunities.

I could see Duda putting up a good season.  Something like .278 23 HR 85 RBI on the optimistic end which would be great value for a last pick.

#6 Big Tuna

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 11:36 AM

I also dont think he is wire fodder....but could be a very nice end of the draft bench pick who could easily move into your starting lineup.  Love the power potential.

#7 danp

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM

as a mets fan...do not draft.

he's already got a strike against him because he's an absolute butcher in the field, which will limit his playing time if the mets ever get any serviceable outfielders. that combined with a wrist injury combined with a dreadful '12...stay away.

#8 Whoopie!

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 12:38 PM

View Postdanp, on 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

as a mets fan...do not draft.

he's already got a strike against him because he's an absolute butcher in the field, which will limit his playing time if the mets ever get any serviceable outfielders. that combined with a wrist injury combined with a dreadful '12...stay away.


Well as a Mets fan also, we both know how insanely pathetic their offense will be in 2013.   If Duda performs at the plate,  they will deal with his defense or lack thereof in the OF.   His offense is the only reason he'll be playing.  So in that sense, i guess he's a decent flier.   If he's playing every day, it means he's having a solid offensive year. And we know what kind of power potential he has.

The fact of the matter is, he is their best OF.  And thats quite a statement lol.   Think its pretty easy to say Mets have the worst OF in baseball, and its not even close.

Edited by Whoopie!, 23 January 2013 - 12:39 PM.


#9 klove42

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 12:53 PM

View PostWhoopie!, on 23 January 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

View Postdanp, on 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

as a mets fan...do not draft.

he's already got a strike against him because he's an absolute butcher in the field, which will limit his playing time if the mets ever get any serviceable outfielders. that combined with a wrist injury combined with a dreadful '12...stay away.


Well as a Mets fan also, we both know how insanely pathetic their offense will be in 2013.   If Duda performs at the plate,  they will deal with his defense or lack thereof in the OF.   His offense is the only reason he'll be playing.  So in that sense, i guess he's a decent flier.   If he's playing every day, it means he's having a solid offensive year. And we know what kind of power potential he has.

The fact of the matter is, he is their best OF.  And thats quite a statement lol.   Think its pretty easy to say Mets have the worst OF in baseball, and its not even close.

I just took a look at their roster... that is by far the worst OF. At least there will not be a playing time concern.
No Days Off

#10 Whoopie!

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Posted 23 January 2013 - 01:03 PM

View Postklove42, on 23 January 2013 - 12:53 PM, said:

View PostWhoopie!, on 23 January 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

View Postdanp, on 23 January 2013 - 10:28 AM, said:

as a mets fan...do not draft.

he's already got a strike against him because he's an absolute butcher in the field, which will limit his playing time if the mets ever get any serviceable outfielders. that combined with a wrist injury combined with a dreadful '12...stay away.


Well as a Mets fan also, we both know how insanely pathetic their offense will be in 2013.   If Duda performs at the plate,  they will deal with his defense or lack thereof in the OF.   His offense is the only reason he'll be playing.  So in that sense, i guess he's a decent flier.   If he's playing every day, it means he's having a solid offensive year. And we know what kind of power potential he has.

The fact of the matter is, he is their best OF.  And thats quite a statement lol.   Think its pretty easy to say Mets have the worst OF in baseball, and its not even close.

I just took a look at their roster... that is by far the worst OF. At least there will not be a playing time concern.

Well i heard Alderson interviewed last week.  It seemed to me at least, they will be looking to make a move.    They cannot be playing Mike Baxter every day, my god.  Their CF platoon of Nieuwenhuis/Cowgill will be at least servicable i think. The corners tho...puke.

#11 parrothead

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 07:38 PM

He was a guy on the "sleeper" list last year, and in a 14-team league, a guy who has some potential and a job could be a nice grab late.
Seems everybody's jogging or heavy into health s?&t, don't tell me that I otta get rolfed, cause I love Cajun martinis and playing afternoon golf-JB from we are the people are parents warned us about

#12 Cmilne23

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 02:08 AM

1. Poor lineup
2. Poor hitters park
3. Does not hit lefties well

Has poor splits at Citi Field, has poor splits vs. lefties, and that lineup is just atroooooooooooooooooocious unless they get Bourn.  As of now they figure to go: Niewuenhis? Murphy Wright Davis Duda Baxter Buck Tejada Pitcher.  That may be the worst lineup in baseball.  Will not be owning any Mets this year.  Including Wright.  As of now they are my 2013 version of the 2012 Astros, I will stream vs. them any chance I get.

Edited by Cmilne23, 25 January 2013 - 02:09 AM.


#13 FouLLine

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 04:26 AM

View PostCmilne23, on 25 January 2013 - 02:08 AM, said:

1. Poor lineup
2. Poor hitters park
3. Does not hit lefties well

Has poor splits at Citi Field, has poor splits vs. lefties, and that lineup is just atroooooooooooooooooocious unless they get Bourn.  As of now they figure to go: Niewuenhis? Murphy Wright Davis Duda Baxter Buck Tejada Pitcher.  That may be the worst lineup in baseball.  Will not be owning any Mets this year.  Including Wright.  As of now they are my 2013 version of the 2012 Astros, I will stream vs. them any chance I get.

I think The Mets have a very sneaky lineup this year.  They won't be a top offense by any means but I think they can be an above average NL offense.  They are a very young team with a surprising amount of MLB experience considering their ages.

Duda 27 an .849 minor league career hitter who really shinned in AAA where over the last 2 seasons he posted an AAA OPS of .949, because of this I feel he is a closer hitter to his 2011 season of an .852 OPS than his 2012 season of a .718 OPS.

Ike Davis 26 in March, was much better in the second half last year and will probably be the player people drafted him for in 2012 this season.  

Daniel Murphy is always an under rated hitter, he has a career batting average of .292 and OPS of .766 and he won't be 28 until April 1st.  

I can't help but to think that Ruben Tejada will have a better career than his career numbers have so far shown.  I mean he has been playing in the league since he was 20, now entering his age 23 season with 3 years under his belt I could see him taking big strides forward.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a solid ceiling and is a wild card going into 2013, if he can stay healthy he could find himself having a very productive season in 2013.

Jordany Valdespin is only going to be 25 this year so we don't quite know what kind of player he is going to be yet.

Also The Mets have some other high upside players who may just be MLB ready next year.

Travis D'Arnaud could be a great sleeper catcher next year.  He OPSed .914 in AA 2 years ago and .975 last year in AAA (yeah sure PCL, so flame on).

Wilmer Flores could be ready to play either 2B, SS, or 3B next year, most likely 2B moving Daniel Murphy out to RF.  Flores improved upon his AA call up last year at the very ripe age of 20.  Don't let Trout / Harper let the majority of player's road to the majors confuse you.  20 is very young for AA especially for a hitter.  AA is considered the hardest jump in the majors.  Wilmer didn't even flinch upon moving up.  He posted his highest OPS at any level in the majors, he had a better K% and BB% than he did at the A+ level earlier in 2012.

#14 Whoopie!

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 09:10 AM

Wow you're pretty optimistic there.   I'd be stunned if they're an above avg offense.  This team desperately needs speed AND power. Wright when good, is a 20-25 hr guy.  Davis legit ok.  Duda?  He has to show me something 1st before i can rely on a power bat 'all' year long.   Neuwinheis complete wildcard and they have no RF.  Baxter???  I cant see it.

Tejada/Murph solid single/double type players, no power really.

And this team needs some legs!  When Wright is your best base stealer, u have some major issues.

IF all things go right, then yea they could be above avg.  The odds of that happening though are pretty slim.

They need to sign another OF.  Whether its via trade or signing Bourn (but not if its forfeiting their 1st rd pick).  Would have loved to get J-Upton and the Mets could have gave a better package , oh well.

Future is bright, but not 2013 IMO.

Edited by Whoopie!, 25 January 2013 - 09:11 AM.


#15 Cmilne23

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:19 AM

View PostFouLLine, on 25 January 2013 - 04:26 AM, said:

View PostCmilne23, on 25 January 2013 - 02:08 AM, said:

1. Poor lineup
2. Poor hitters park
3. Does not hit lefties well

Has poor splits at Citi Field, has poor splits vs. lefties, and that lineup is just atroooooooooooooooooocious unless they get Bourn.  As of now they figure to go: Niewuenhis? Murphy Wright Davis Duda Baxter Buck Tejada Pitcher.  That may be the worst lineup in baseball.  Will not be owning any Mets this year.  Including Wright.  As of now they are my 2013 version of the 2012 Astros, I will stream vs. them any chance I get.

I think The Mets have a very sneaky lineup this year.  They won't be a top offense by any means but I think they can be an above average NL offense.  They are a very young team with a surprising amount of MLB experience considering their ages.

Duda 27 an .849 minor league career hitter who really shinned in AAA where over the last 2 seasons he posted an AAA OPS of .949, because of this I feel he is a closer hitter to his 2011 season of an .852 OPS than his 2012 season of a .718 OPS.

Ike Davis 26 in March, was much better in the second half last year and will probably be the player people drafted him for in 2012 this season.  

Daniel Murphy is always an under rated hitter, he has a career batting average of .292 and OPS of .766 and he won't be 28 until April 1st.  

I can't help but to think that Ruben Tejada will have a better career than his career numbers have so far shown.  I mean he has been playing in the league since he was 20, now entering his age 23 season with 3 years under his belt I could see him taking big strides forward.

Kirk Nieuwenhuis has a solid ceiling and is a wild card going into 2013, if he can stay healthy he could find himself having a very productive season in 2013.

Jordany Valdespin is only going to be 25 this year so we don't quite know what kind of player he is going to be yet.

Also The Mets have some other high upside players who may just be MLB ready next year.

Travis D'Arnaud could be a great sleeper catcher next year.  He OPSed .914 in AA 2 years ago and .975 last year in AAA (yeah sure PCL, so flame on).

Wilmer Flores could be ready to play either 2B, SS, or 3B next year, most likely 2B moving Daniel Murphy out to RF.  Flores improved upon his AA call up last year at the very ripe age of 20.  Don't let Trout / Harper let the majority of player's road to the majors confuse you.  20 is very young for AA especially for a hitter.  AA is considered the hardest jump in the majors.  Wilmer didn't even flinch upon moving up.  He posted his highest OPS at any level in the majors, he had a better K% and BB% than he did at the A+ level earlier in 2012.

Put this in perspective.  Last year they were 25th in baseball in runs despite having just a fluke .330 average with RISP through the first 4 months of the season.  The only way this offense is above 20th is if they have another fluke stretch, this time spanning the whole season, of hitting with RISP.  D'Arnaud could give them a jolt, but if they go with Buck through the first months that will be more reason to stream against them.  Buck is finished, he is atrocious.

#16 PRoSPx

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:49 AM

Yeah I am basing my theory off of D'Arnaud winning the lions sharw of ABs and being a high upside rookie.

But everyone in that lineup is so young.  Wright at 30 is probably the oldest (well I guess Buck).  So they have a lot of eoom to grow.  With disappointing seasons from Duda and Davis last year I couldn't see The Mets being worse than last year this season.

#17 Slatykamora

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:08 AM

Although the Mets Lineup is more certainly below average. Not really fair to  compare to the Astros. Because the Mets at least do have legit Bats in the Middle of the lineup in Wright and Davis(at least power wise for Davis). Assuming Duda hits behind them. He should get an Okay amount of RBI opps. However, he is going to be Negative value in runs scored even if he hits his upside. Since no one behind him is going to ever drive him in...

Right now though. Personally in standard 10-12 team leagues. I'm likely not going to draft him. There are other guys Id rather take a Flier on. But I will keep and eye on him during the season and looking to see if he is lowering his Strikeout rate

Because that was his main problem from 2011 to 2012. His Strikeout rate went from 16.4 to 26.1. That's a big jump.

#18 Cmilne23

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:37 AM

Ike Davis is another one trick pony type hitter, zero dimensions to his game other than running into some homers.  Another guy who should probably be platooned because he does not touch LHP (.174 in 167 at bats last year) and another guy that can't hit at Citi Field (.188 240 home at bats last year).  They just don't have many dimensions to there team, they have little team speed, they are a station to station team, there middle of the order hitters have glaring splits both vs. LHP and hitting at home.  A lot of a players value for counting stats is tied into the surroundings they are in.  Duda is not surrounded with an over abundance of talent in front of behind him, and Citi Field plays drastically in favor of pitchers despite fences coming in.  But if they get Bourn I would like his prospects more, they need some speed on that team because of now they are probably going to be the slowest team in major league baseball.

Edited by Cmilne23, 25 January 2013 - 11:38 AM.


#19 Whoopie!

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:03 PM

View PostCmilne23, on 25 January 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Ike Davis is another one trick pony type hitter, zero dimensions to his game other than running into some homers.  Another guy who should probably be platooned because he does not touch LHP (.174 in 167 at bats last year) and another guy that can't hit at Citi Field (.188 240 home at bats last year). They just don't have many dimensions to there team, they have little team speed, they are a station to station team, there middle of the order hitters have glaring splits both vs. LHP and hitting at home.  A lot of a players value for counting stats is tied into the surroundings they are in.  Duda is not surrounded with an over abundance of talent in front of behind him, and Citi Field plays drastically in favor of pitchers despite fences coming in.  But if they get Bourn I would like his prospects more, they need some speed on that team because of now they are probably going to be the slowest team in major league baseball.

I'd be careful judging Ike off last year outside of hr's.   He got off to the worst slump in the history of man kind lol.  He barely got a hit until June.  He hit .227 for crying out loud.   He's probably a .270 ish type of hitter.

He's a legit 1b tho,  .270/30+/90+ rbi's and plays a gold glove 1b.   He is slow as molasses but you're not drafting Ike Davis for speed.

#20 Cmilne23

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:43 PM

View PostWhoopie!, on 25 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

View PostCmilne23, on 25 January 2013 - 11:37 AM, said:

Ike Davis is another one trick pony type hitter, zero dimensions to his game other than running into some homers.  Another guy who should probably be platooned because he does not touch LHP (.174 in 167 at bats last year) and another guy that can't hit at Citi Field (.188 240 home at bats last year). They just don't have many dimensions to there team, they have little team speed, they are a station to station team, there middle of the order hitters have glaring splits both vs. LHP and hitting at home.  A lot of a players value for counting stats is tied into the surroundings they are in.  Duda is not surrounded with an over abundance of talent in front of behind him, and Citi Field plays drastically in favor of pitchers despite fences coming in.  But if they get Bourn I would like his prospects more, they need some speed on that team because of now they are probably going to be the slowest team in major league baseball.

I'd be careful judging Ike off last year outside of hr's.   He got off to the worst slump in the history of man kind lol.  He barely got a hit until June.  He hit .227 for crying out loud.   He's probably a .270 ish type of hitter.

He's a legit 1b tho,  .270/30+/90+ rbi's and plays a gold glove 1b.   He is slow as molasses but you're not drafting Ike Davis for speed.

He has such a long swing I have a hard time believing he will ever be able to maintain a high average.  He has some big holes in his swing that MLB pitchers have begun to expose.  His power is legit but I am skeptical he will ever be able maintain over a .250 - .260 ish average.  But his OBP is not bad so he should still have a .335 - .345 clip which is not bad at all.