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Bartolo Colon 2013 Outlook


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#1 AnonymousRob

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:19 PM

Alright, let's say this first - standard size leagues might stream this guy a few times but for the most part he's going appeal to those in deep leagues and/or AL only. But I think there's some value here for those in such settings. There have been a few posts in this forum over the past couple months which seem to completely dismiss the guy. And instead of addressing those elsewhere, I figured we'd tackle it head on in here. From another thread:

But let's get some facts straight. Colon first off hasn't pitched a full season in the bigs since 2005. He will be 40 in May. His BABIP was below his career average and HR/FB below his career average. Now they weren't entirely out of line with his career averages but at the same time the guy is 40 and something is going to eventually give.

Can Colon post a 3.43 ERA over a full season? Chances are extremely slim. Colon could very well be a disaster next year. A hardcore regression is the most likely scenario in this case. The guy is 40, by no means was he dominating, and has proven to be injury prone throughout his career.


He probably won't last an entire year. But expecting 150 innings out of the guy (with the potential for more) isn't unreasonable. He's done that each of the past two seasons.

Yes, he's old by baseball standards. He was old last year when he pitched 152 innings and went 10-9 with a 3.43 era. Maybe he'll fall off a cliff due to his age. Maybe he'll fall off a cliff without taking testosterone. Both are possible. But if he flops, so what? You cut the last player drafted? The cost is absurdly low.

His career babip is 292. Last year it was 286. That's right in line with career numbers. His hr/fb rate for his career is 10.8%. Last year it was 9.1%. Pitching in Oakland has its benefits for a pitcher. Giving up fewer home runs is one of those benefits.

His era was under his fip/xfip but looking at his career as a whole, he's generally been able to pitch better than the peripherals.

He gave up slightly fewer line drives than his career norms (18% vs. 19.4%). He had more groundballs since 2002.

Hitters did swing and miss at a lower rate than ever before. Last year he had a career high in guys swinging at pitches out of the strike zone (though 2007 and 2011 were close to last year's numbers). He also gave up a career high contact rate.

He's clearly not the same pitcher he once was. But he's not trying to be the same pitcher he once was. It's quite interesting, really. He's throwing his two seam more than ever and his 4 seam less than ever. He's relying on what some scouts in 2011 were calling a "wicked" two seam and just pitching to contact. And it's working. It's causing weak grounders and pop ups.

He'll fall off a cliff at some point. That point may come this year. But for a guy who can be had as your very last pick, 150 innings of a 4 era and a 1.20 whip isn't anything to sneeze at. If Tim Hudson is a guy on your radar, Colon should be as well. Only Hudson has an ADP of 41st pitcher while Bartolo is unranked.

Unsexy value is still value.
Want help in your A/C threads? Give details!!! Keeper/dynasty/redraft, ppr, league size, who is on your roster, roto/H2H, scoring system, etc.

#2 parrothead

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 05:29 PM

If I were in an AL only league, he would for sure be on my undervalued list. Guys love sexy and upside, he is neither.
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#3 RespectMyAuthority

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 06:05 PM

Going into last year, there were 3 SP who met the requirements to be listed as both Extreme Flyball (>36% FB & <2.9 BB/9) and Extreme Groundball (>44% GB & >7.0 K/9) pitchers, this was the list...

David Price
Yovani Gallardo
Bartolo Colon

#4 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 06:17 PM

You draft Colon I'll draft Straily. We will revist this come season's end.

#5 AnonymousRob

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 06:40 PM

You draft Colon I'll draft Straily. We will revist this come season's end.


Straily is going to fight it out with AJ Griffin for the #5 spot. Colon is suspended the first 5 games of the year but aside from that has earned a spot in the rotation. Maybe he'll lose it during the year. But he earned it with his performance last year. It seems you were either deliberately misleading people by mentioning his numbers or you simply weren't overly familiar with what he did. Which would be understandable - if he weren't pitching for my team I likely wouldn't look very closely.

Straily is an elite talent. I've never denied that. I do not appreciate you claiming the opposite. I fired up his thread last year when he was called up. I've followed Fish On and others when they were watching him in the minors. He'll definitely get a shot this year either from injury and/or trades.

I'm mentioning how undervalued Colon is not because it's "a triggered emotional response". I'm dealing with actual facts and statistics. I noticed you and some other posters don't seem to value him at all. When I see a player is getting little respect, that signals he may be a good player to draft. I didn't mention you in the OP because this thread was about Bartolo Colon. Not your obsession with comparing the two and claiming Straily is getting cheated out of a job for political or financial reasons. If you would like to make a counter point I would love to see it. This time of year folks tend to bring more beef behind their arguments rather than rely on hyperbolic statements. I showed the peripherals behind his numbers, listed his ADP, and compared him to another player that is often drafted (Hudson) despite the massive ADP differential. I look forward to hearing your argument if you choose to bring one.

There are definitely concerns with any player once they reach a certain age. There are also concerns with a guy who gets busted for PED's. He may fall off a cliff. But he may also do what he's done the past two seasons. And at his current ADP (too low to rank), it's well worth the gamble to find out.

If Straily starts in the minors, it's because he couldn't beat out AJ Griffin. Not because this is "in all honesty is more of a political money saving strategy and not because he is less skillful than Colon." Even though last year's numbers show Colon was better than Straily. Will Straily be better than Colon in a few years? Of course. But the A's are dealing with the here and now. They won their division last year and are trying to contend for the playoffs once more.

Colon has earned his spot in the rotation. He pitched well last year. He's a good gamble in certain leagues this year. You claiming a person can draft either Colon or Straily is a bizarre strawman at best. Colon is an unsexy name. Colon has limited upside. But he's still being undervalued. If he can repeat last year's numbers, he'd be an asset for a lot of teams.
Want help in your A/C threads? Give details!!! Keeper/dynasty/redraft, ppr, league size, who is on your roster, roto/H2H, scoring system, etc.

#6 PRoSPx

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Posted 18 January 2013 - 09:37 PM

My whole point was (that you're blowing out of proportion) was that Straily is by no means blockes by Colon at this point in his career.

But seriously if Colon doesn't open the season of I highly doubt that he'll be in the rotation unless there's an injury. There is just too much talent in that rotation.

Edited by The Harsh, 18 January 2013 - 10:20 PM.
Focus on the argument, not its advocate.


#7 crazybob60

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Posted 19 March 2013 - 06:12 PM

Here's a question I have about Colon and maybe someone will have some insight or opinion. I realize that he is suspended the first 5 games of the season, do you think that the A's 6th game of the season (4/6) he will actually get the start, or will it be the second time around in the rotation that he will get a start?
14 Team League, H2H, Points Based System (Daily Lineup Changes)
Can Roster 10 SP's, Max 2 SP pickups per week

C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Jordy Mercer
3B: David Wright
IF: Mark Teixeira
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Christian Yelich
DH: Mike Napoli, Martin Prado
BN: Derek Jeter
DL: Troy Tulowitzki

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Travis Wood, Aaron Harang, Tim Hudson, AJ Burnett, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeremy Hellickson, Alfredo Simon, Ricky Nolasco, T.J. House
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Huston Street, Santiago Casilla
DL: Yu Darvish

#8 Wombat

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Posted 05 April 2013 - 12:21 AM

I would consider it but he's one of the few pitchers out there that makes me hesitant even against the disastros. He was horrible in the spring IIRCI. He also had like the lowest swinging strike rate in the league last year too, he literally just pumps in 88 MPH fastballs every pitch.

Edited by Wombat, 05 April 2013 - 12:21 AM.


#9 JFS171

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:34 PM

I really, really thought about starting him against Houston. I still could be swayed, I suppose. But the cliff is coming at some point...

And now that we know he's off the juice...

Posted Image

#10 Ragnaroker

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:36 PM

I really, really thought about starting him against Houston. I still could be swayed, I suppose. But the cliff is coming at some point...

And now that we know he's off the juice...

Posted Image


I feel the same way. Just can't trust Staypuft Marshmellow Man to help me out this week, not after how his recent pitching has looked.

#11 nbafan_123

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:39 PM

I am starting him with confidence today. He is pitching to keep a spot in the rotation and is facing The Kstros. Plus it is early so fatigue shouldn't be an issue. I could see him getting 10 Ks in 7 innings. I am also starting Bud Norris so hopefully it is a low scoring game.

#12 BMcP

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:41 PM

Not over-thinking this one - running him out with confidence versus these sad sacks...
Opta ardua pennis astra sequi.

#13 JFS171

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 04:48 PM

I have no doubt the K-seekers will get Ks. He struck out 22 in 20 IP this spring, and the Astros are windmills.

BUT… those Ks came with a 6.30 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP. It's ST though - who knows...

Just feel like the Astros are going to hit at some point… maybe not consistently, but someone's going to get knocked around when we're least expecting it...

#14 BohCountyBats

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 05:34 PM

Cant believe they sent Straily down for this fat, old juicer. Heres hoping he gets rocked his first couple starts and gives way to Straily.

#15 Jay85

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 05:43 PM

picked up colon in h2h and starting him and keeping straily in keeper league (N/A Spot on Yahoo)...

TEAM A - 10 team H2H - 6pt Td League - Record 6-2
QB - Andrew Luck WR - Mike Wallace, Brandon Marshall
RB - Jamaal Charles, Fred Jackson TE - Coby Fleener
W/T - Sammy Watkins W/R - JOnes Gray K - Justin Tucker DEF - Green Bay Packers 
BN - Mychal Rivera, Charles Sims, Knile Davis, Matt Asiata, Allen Hurns, Andrew Hawkins 

 

TEAM B - 12 Team H2H - 4pt Passing Td League - Record 4-4

QB - Jay Cutler WR - Odell Beckman Jr, Dez Bryant
RB - Jamaal Charles & Eddie Lacy TE - Mychal Rivera
W/T - Jones Gray  W/R - Isiah Crowell Jr  K - Matt Bryant  DEF - Kansas City/ St Louis

BN - Charles Sims, Martavis Bryant, Ronnie Hillman, Knile Davis, Andy Dalton 


#16 WaKe21334

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 05:52 PM

I streamed him. Granted I have a major lead in ERA and am trying to catch my opponent in K's, figured if there was anyone to throw tubby, it was the Astros.
10 Team H2H 6x6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG and OPS) (S, K, ERA, WHIP, CG, QS)
C- Victor Martinez (Perez)
1st- Edwin Encarnacion (Teixiera DL)
2nd- Jason Kipnis
SS- Martin Prado (Lowrie)
3rd- David Wright (Machado
3OF- Andrew McCutchen, Bryce Harper, Jose Bautista (Willingham)
2 UTIL- Adam Jones and Lance Berkman
8 SP- Adam Wainwright, Jeff Samardzija, Mike Minor, Alexi Ogando, Julio Teheran, Trevor Cahill, Felix Dubront, Roy Halladay
4 RP- Addison Reed, Chris Perez, Ernesto Frieri, Mitchell Boggs

12 Team H2H 8x8 (R, H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS, XBH) (W, L, S, CG, K, ERA, WHIP, QS)
C- Victor Martinez
1st- Albert Pujols
2nd- Neil Walker
SS- Alcides Escobar
3rd- Matt Carpenter (Aramis Ramirez DL)
3 OF- Bryce Harper, Jose Bautista, Jay Bruce & 2 UTIL- Gerrardo Parra and Alex Gordon (Ortiz DL)
4 SP- Madison Bumgarner, John Lester, Mike Minor, Felix Dubront
4 RP- Rafael Soriano, Sergio Romo, Casey Janssen, Kyuji Fujikawa

#17 djmax101

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:08 PM

You'd be crazy not to throw him out against the Astros. Last night one of their dudes swung at a pitch that was already in the catcher's mitt (not kidding - worst swing by an MLB player I've ever witnessed)

The "my sister-in-law told me the wrong draft time so I missed the first 5 rounds" squad

QB: Philip Rivers

RB1: Jamaal Charles

RB2: Le'Veon Bell

WR1: Jordy Nelson

WR2: Josh Gordon

WR3: Odell Beckham Jr.

TE: Greg Olsen

K: Stephen Gostkowski

D: [whoever is playing Jacksonville]

Bench: Rashad Jennings, Mike Evans, Roddy White, Denard Robinson, Ryan Tannehill


#18 LyondellBasell

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:25 PM

straily's bus just made a u-turn

14 Team PPR. One Keeper. All TDs worth six.
 
QB/ Wilson
RB/ Jamaal
WR/ Edelman
FX/ Wright
FX/ Bradshaw
FX/ McKinnon
TE/ Kelce
DST/ Titans
K/ Parkey
Bn/ Hill, Hunter, Shorts, P Thomas, LaFell
 
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#19 Wombat

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:34 PM

Unreal, stupid crawford boxes. Castro hits a 290 foot home run. SMH.

#20 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 06 April 2013 - 07:41 PM

1 strikeout against the Astros = Deathblow