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Jose Bautista 2013 Outlook


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#1 NYSportsfan24

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 06:13 AM

What type of numbers are we projecting? Will HR production be down since his injury?

#2 klove42

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 08:51 AM

It's a little alarming to me how he hurt himself, and also when he came back he hurt himself again. I think he is still a lock for 30 homers this year, but his average will be closer to what it was last year then two years ago. Also it hurts that he will lost third base eligibility. I still like him if I could get him in the third or fourth... But I think his Adp  will be higher then round 4
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#3 PRoSPx

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 09:01 AM

I've seen him go in the early 2nd to mid 3rd round in early mock drafts.

#4 AnonymousRob

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 02:04 PM

Such a major mancrush on this guy. I'll be targeting him heavily. His early ADP is 14th overall. Health is of course the main concern. But if he's recovered (I personally see no reason to doubt he is), I'll say 35 home runs is his floor. His floor!

This guy was banged up a lot last year and only got in 399 at bats. Despite playing some of that time with a wrist that wasn't 100%, he banged out 27 bombs. He had a career low strike out percent. He only hit 241 but that was with a 215 babip! This is a guy whose babip is generally lower than average, but 215 is ridiculously low. Really no reason that happened aside from bad luck. He wasn't swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Teams weren't giving him a shift. He wasn't hitting more grounders. He hit slightly fewer line drives, but this really does appear to be a case of bad luck.

This is a guy who got off to an incredibly slow start last year. 3 home runs in April! People were panicking. Then came May and he hit 9. Then we got his 14 in June. Then the party ended with a wrist injury and it never quite got back on track. If that wrist is back to being healthy, he's going to go back to doing what he always does - hitting lots of home runs. And now he has an even better lineup around him!

I see at least 35 home runs, 85 runs, 90 rbi's. I truly believe that's a conservative projection. If you've been on this bandwagon at any time the past few years, I see absolutely no reason you shouldn't hop aboard in 2013.
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#5 klove42

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 03:22 PM

View PostAnonymousRob, on 20 January 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

Such a major mancrush on this guy. I'll be targeting him heavily. His early ADP is 14th overall. Health is of course the main concern. But if he's recovered (I personally see no reason to doubt he is), I'll say 35 home runs is his floor. His floor!

This guy was banged up a lot last year and only got in 399 at bats. Despite playing some of that time with a wrist that wasn't 100%, he banged out 27 bombs. He had a career low strike out percent. He only hit 241 but that was with a 215 babip! This is a guy whose babip is generally lower than average, but 215 is ridiculously low. Really no reason that happened aside from bad luck. He wasn't swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Teams weren't giving him a shift. He wasn't hitting more grounders. He hit slightly fewer line drives, but this really does appear to be a case of bad luck.

This is a guy who got off to an incredibly slow start last year. 3 home runs in April! People were panicking. Then came May and he hit 9. Then we got his 14 in June. Then the party ended with a wrist injury and it never quite got back on track. If that wrist is back to being healthy, he's going to go back to doing what he always does - hitting lots of home runs. And now he has an even better lineup around him!

I see at least 35 home runs, 85 runs, 90 rbi's. I truly believe that's a conservative projection. If you've been on this bandwagon at any time the past few years, I see absolutely no reason you shouldn't hop aboard in 2013.

I need to see where grandersons adp is also this year, because if granderson can be had cheaper then I like him more because they play the same position, similar power, less health risk, more steals and runs. The average might favor Bautista but not by much I don't think
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#6 yoda

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 03:28 PM

I am very cautious with late bloomers.  They tend to have a shorter peak and with guys in their 30s, when they get injured, it's very concerning.  Especially when they miss nearly half the season with injuries.
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#7 RotoRaysfan

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 03:42 PM

Bautista's OF eligibility really hurts his stock along with the injury.  The ONLY good news is that his wrist injury was given almost 6 months to heal as of now - in another 2 months, that's plenty of time for the injury to full heal so a power drop shouldn't be due to injury recovery - unlike in-season or pre-season wrist/hand injuries (J-Up 2012 a great example).

I agree the age-of-breakout brings up the likelihood we've already seen his peak - but in that lineup, and his power floor, there's still value, depending on how much 2012 scares people away. If he drops below the first 2 rounds, I think it's worth the risk - I just doubt he will drop that far.
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#8 AnonymousRob

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 04:25 PM

View Postklove42, on 20 January 2013 - 03:22 PM, said:

View PostAnonymousRob, on 20 January 2013 - 02:04 PM, said:

Such a major mancrush on this guy. I'll be targeting him heavily. His early ADP is 14th overall. Health is of course the main concern. But if he's recovered (I personally see no reason to doubt he is), I'll say 35 home runs is his floor. His floor!

This guy was banged up a lot last year and only got in 399 at bats. Despite playing some of that time with a wrist that wasn't 100%, he banged out 27 bombs. He had a career low strike out percent. He only hit 241 but that was with a 215 babip! This is a guy whose babip is generally lower than average, but 215 is ridiculously low. Really no reason that happened aside from bad luck. He wasn't swinging at more pitches out of the zone. Teams weren't giving him a shift. He wasn't hitting more grounders. He hit slightly fewer line drives, but this really does appear to be a case of bad luck.

This is a guy who got off to an incredibly slow start last year. 3 home runs in April! People were panicking. Then came May and he hit 9. Then we got his 14 in June. Then the party ended with a wrist injury and it never quite got back on track. If that wrist is back to being healthy, he's going to go back to doing what he always does - hitting lots of home runs. And now he has an even better lineup around him!

I see at least 35 home runs, 85 runs, 90 rbi's. I truly believe that's a conservative projection. If you've been on this bandwagon at any time the past few years, I see absolutely no reason you shouldn't hop aboard in 2013.

I need to see where grandersons adp is also this year, because if granderson can be had cheaper then I like him more because they play the same position, similar power, less health risk, more steals and runs. The average might favor Bautista but not by much I don't think
Granderson's ADP is 29th overall.
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#9 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 05:39 PM

Right now, I don't see him being drafted beyond early to mid 2nd round, which will probably be a bargain when it's all said and done.
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#10 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 20 January 2013 - 11:53 PM

I think I'm in the same camp as about 80% of fantasy players in thinking this guy should be fine for a bounceback. .270 average, 41 hr, 112 rbi, 105 runs, 8 steals. His k% last year was the lowest it's ever been. If he was declining, most power hitters decline in that category first. He still had an outstanding .286 iso and low k-rate last year, so there is no reason to worry about a decline this year. Injuries will be the only thing that can stop him from 40+ homers.

#11 klove42

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Posted 21 January 2013 - 09:49 AM

View PostRed Sox Nation, on 20 January 2013 - 11:53 PM, said:

I think I'm in the same camp as about 80% of fantasy players in thinking this guy should be fine for a bounceback. .270 average, 41 hr, 112 rbi, 105 runs, 8 steals. His k% last year was the lowest it's ever been. If he was declining, most power hitters decline in that category first. He still had an outstanding .286 iso and low k-rate last year, so there is no reason to worry about a decline this year. Injuries will be the only thing that can stop him from 40+ homers.

I agree with you completely, but I still am worried about his injury. I know he should be fully recovered by the time he season starts, but I just am always cautious about wrist injuries and power hitters
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#12 klove42

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Posted 24 February 2013 - 05:51 PM

Good to see him hit a homer today in spring training. If he shows the power is still there in ST then I think he is fine heading into the season
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#13 dod959

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 12:28 AM

For Bautista, the low K-rate is not necessarily a good thing IMO. He is at his best when he's being extremely patient and sitting on something inside. That's when the bombs come. So will the Ks though. If I had to bet, I'd say his K% was highest in the month he hit the most bombs.

He admitted last year he was really pressing and not using a patient approach. More balls in play, less great contact.

He said right now his wrist is "perfect" and has a bomb already. The key to Bautista is not the power, I think it'll always be there because of the swing. The key is his approach at the plate. He has always had an insane eye for anything away, always taking the close pitches and literally forcing pitchers to go where he wants. He needs to keep that up IMO.

#14 CM52

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 07:51 AM

View Postdod959, on 25 February 2013 - 12:28 AM, said:

For Bautista, the low K-rate is not necessarily a good thing IMO. He is at his best when he's being extremely patient and sitting on something inside. That's when the bombs come. So will the Ks though. If I had to bet, I'd say his K% was highest in the month he hit the most bombs.

He admitted last year he was really pressing and not using a patient approach. More balls in play, less great contact.

He said right now his wrist is "perfect" and has a bomb already. The key to Bautista is not the power, I think it'll always be there because of the swing. The key is his approach at the plate. He has always had an insane eye for anything away, always taking the close pitches and literally forcing pitchers to go where he wants. He needs to keep that up IMO.

If 27 home runs in 92 games is what happens when he isn't making great contact, I think he should be pretty good.

#15 Suikoden

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 08:05 AM

Not worried at all with him ESPECIALLY considering he now has protection in the lineup.  Expecting 40+HR from him this year.
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#16 PepperPot

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 09:55 AM

View Postdod959, on 25 February 2013 - 12:28 AM, said:

For Bautista, the low K-rate is not necessarily a good thing IMO. He is at his best when he's being extremely patient and sitting on something inside. That's when the bombs come. So will the Ks though. If I had to bet, I'd say his K% was highest in the month he hit the most bombs.

He admitted last year he was really pressing and not using a patient approach. More balls in play, less great contact.

He said right now his wrist is "perfect" and has a bomb already. The key to Bautista is not the power, I think it'll always be there because of the swing. The key is his approach at the plate. He has always had an insane eye for anything away, always taking the close pitches and literally forcing pitchers to go where he wants. He needs to keep that up IMO.

For the three years that are relevant to that comment, the most home runs hit in any month was June of 2012.  Bautista hit 14 homers that month and struck out 16 times, for a 13.3% strike out rate.  That was his second lowest strike out rate per month last season.  Even if we go back to 2010 when he hit 12 homers in both May and August...his strike out rates come in at 19% and 17.9% respectively.  Neither of those months had his highest strike out rate for that season.

So while I agree with you that he is a guy that likes to sit on his pitch on the inner half of the plate.  I don't really see the correlation between between his home run production and strike out rate.  Even with the slow start last year, he was still on pace to match his home run total from 2011 and if you discount the games he played when the wrist clearly wasn't right...he was on pace to top that total.

I don't think Bautista will hit 50 again (I don't think anyone expects that), but if the wrist is fine I don't see a reason why he can't put up 35+.

Edited by PepperPot, 25 February 2013 - 09:56 AM.

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#17 Suikoden

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 01:27 PM

Bautista robbed just now by the wind against Boston lol That wind had a mission against him.  Any other day a HR.  Would have been two for him this spring season.
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#18 klove42

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Posted 25 February 2013 - 04:04 PM

View PostSuikoden, on 25 February 2013 - 01:27 PM, said:

Bautista robbed just now by the wind against Boston lol That wind had a mission against him.  Any other day a HR.  Would have been two for him this spring season.

Looks like that wrist is recovered then. On a side note last year I feel like once a game Bautista would hit a smoking line drive right to the third basemen who was playing him on the line. Rediculous how he couldn't find the whole last year.
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#19 Orion Braun

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 12:55 PM

Well this would certainly be a huge bump in value, should it actually happen... From Blue Jays broadcaster:



45]
@Wilnerness590Gibbons hasn't ruled out Bautista to 3B with Lawrie out, but says it's VERY premature. Has yet to talk to @joeybats19 about it.#Bluejays


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#20 mavsfan23

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Posted 08 March 2013 - 01:03 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 08 March 2013 - 12:55 PM, said:

Well this would certainly be a huge bump in value, should it actually happen... From Blue Jays broadcaster:



45]
@Wilnerness590Gibbons hasn't ruled out Bautista to 3B with Lawrie out, but says it's VERY premature. Has yet to talk to @joeybats19 about it.#Bluejays


while i agreed with you when i read it, the more i think about it his value may stay the same. most mocks i've done he goes around the late 2nd on average. i still think he'd go around that spot with beltre and possibly wright still being 3B taken ahead of him.

the dual eligibility would be nice though
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