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2013 Overvalued Picks


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#1 cbe_88

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 11:13 AM

I find several players that you'll certainly have to pay for next year, that I don't believe will be worth how high they're going. Some players mentioned in this thread can be very solid fantasy players, that you simply believe won't be worth where they're going in drafts.

Most of the players brought up will be players likely going in the first 3 rounds, or around there where they have room to disappoint in terms of their ADP next year.

I'll Start:

Stevan Ridley NE RB: Ridley was a very nice showcase of talent in 2012 and somehow found consistency in a backfield that's VERY difficult to be an every week contributor, but that he was. However, he'll likely sniff the 2nd-3rd round which is just too much for me. I'm not liking how Vereen still holds significant value in that backfield, and you never know (even if it's inside-the-5) how many random looks that Woodhead will get, and randomly nab a TD that should have been Ridley's. Ridley is far and away the guy to own in this backfield, and I love his young talent, but Belichik rotates guys too much for me to hone in on him as early as the 3rd round range.

Chris Johnson TEN RB: This is a guy that miraculously will keep his ADP at the pricey 3rd round range because of salvaging his season pretty well the 2nd half of his season. But to draft a guy this early that was able to put a serious string of legitimate duds at the beginning of the season? No thanks. CJ1K still holds the back-breaking blow-up potential that you want, But witnessing the historically bad first half of his season is easily enough to keep me away. He's not on a great offense that caters to him being someone you can truly depend on. To me, he's a liability with great blow-up potential. Not enough to have me bite on him at his price.

Matt Forte CHI RB: Let me just say that Forte is probably one of the more complete and talented/dynamic backs in the league, but his pricey ADP makes me cringe when I think about his unfortunate fantasy situation. Now with a new staff in play, we'll see if this legitimately changes, but as long as Michael Bush is on this roster Forte's TD-upside, is extremely limited. And what's more he's proven one of the only holes in his game is goal line looks. Bush cuts into his value, and makes him a seriously questionable 2nd-3rd round pick. I'm a snob for picking players that have good to great proneness for TD's, since it's by far the most important stat in fantasy. So I'll unfortunately have to avoid one of the more dynamic backs in the league unless he is able to fall to me a little bit.

Cam Newton QB CAR: Cam is a beast, and I am by no means ruling out that he can continue to grow as a QB in his 3rd year, but he showed the ability to basically not show up in a big way for most of an entire half of a season - not what I want to see from the QB1 I draft and put my trust in. Granted he came on like crazy the 2nd half of the season sneaking back into the top-5, but I'm not on board for a 2nd round pick here, unfortunately. After the big 3 (Brady-Brees-Rodgers) I won't be thinking about QB till the 5th. I want a QB who's down parts of the season are MUCH more brief, I'll take a little less blow-up potential 3 rounds later in my draft, but someone who offer much better and safer consistency.

DMC RB OAK: Really he still might sniff the 3rd round this year? Might be more the 4th, but I'm gonna let someone else take a chance on DMC next year. I've done this every year and have never regretted it. He's truly taken the term "injury-prone" to another level. Assuming they change back to a better blocking scheme for him, there's always a chance his talent is FINALLY maximized. It's become something I'm far from betting on these days, however, after seeing this for 3 years now...

Fitz WR ARI: Yes, let's hope he actually gets a QB to throw to him, then he's immediately off this list as he's one of the top-3 most talented WR in the league. But until I see a new QB on that team that can ACTUALLY throw, he unfortunately stays at overvalued for me in terms of fantasy still maintaining 3rd-4th round range.

#2 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 12:51 PM

I'm on board with Ridley being overvalued as a potential 2nd round pick due to his lack of work in the passing game and the emergence of Vareen & Bolden.  He could easily slide to under 1,000 yards and 8 or less TD.

Overall though, I disagree with your assessments.  I'm totally fine with you not liking these guys and not wanting to draft for 2013 but you're mostly picking talented guys that had down 2012 seasons and are saying that they will be overvalued for 2013.  If anything, they stand a much better chance of being undervalued for 2013.  Off the top of my head, guys like DMartin, Spiller, AMorris (probable 1st rd picks), Dez, AJohnson, Roddy, Gore (2nd rd) & VJax, Decker (3rd rd) are more likely to be overvalued.  Do you know how many experts will be saying that they've been burned for the last time and that they're done with both DMC & RMatthews?  I can't see them not slipping substantially in 2013 drafts.  I'd like to have one of them in the 5th/6th round range or for cheap in my auctions as my 3rd RB.

#3 cbe_88

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 01:16 PM

My assessment was based on DMC, after all the hate, will still be a 3rd-4th round guy next year, If you're just arguing the fact that he could be taken later, okay that's fine. That remains to be seen.

I'm not sure how Cam could be considered undervalued when he's probably gonna be going in the 2nd round. For you to consider Cam undervalued you'd have to think he deserves to be taken earlier, which I don't agree with at all. If you just love his talent, and want to cough up a 2nd round pick for him, sure go for it. I won't be.

Forte, if you read, was completely based on his fantasy situation. Do you understand that, assuming no huge changes, that Bush is in line to be the number 1 TD vulture in fantasy next year? Everytime they get inside the 10, Forte gets to stand on the sidelines. He's a yardage kind and receptions stud which still makes him tempting, but It was just something to think on, Forte is a beast, I'm just not taking him in the 2nd round range.

And DMartin and Spiller, overvalued? Maybe a smidge, but you talk about guys that are talented? These guys are the epitome of talent at their position, while these guys are sure first rounders making them very vulnerable to overvalue, I'll still raise my hand and take either of these amazing young talents in the 1st round. I'm not really on board with Dez being called overvalued, everyone knows he's one of the most talented WR's in the league that proved he could fill his potential in 2012.

Alfred Morris, for sure, I almost put him down. There are some questions surrounding Washington with RG3 and what they might do offensively. Alf could still do well, but he could be overvalued as a surefire second round pick.

Andre Johnson I'm on board with as well, uber-talented, but that's far and away a run-first offense he's in limiting his overall chances to produce, and Schaub proved to be relatively inferior in some ways this year which doesn't help at all. Don't like it.

Eh, V-Jax and Decker it's a wash, I think both of those guys could be solid picks for where they're going. I'd love your assessment on those guys. Roddy and Gore is dependent on where they go, their ADP seems a little fuzzy to me still

i'm not starting a "are these guys talented" thread. Pretty much everyone in the first 3 rounds is dang talented. It's basically, who do you think will go too high for your liking next year, that's all. This allows owners to bring up players they love and think are legit but might not land next year based on where they're going. I'm not hating on any of these guys. I just firmly believe that the situation and role a player has on his team is nearly just as important as his talent and what he's capable of.

Edited by cbe_88, 24 January 2013 - 01:17 PM.


#4 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 02:55 PM

@cbe_88:  I get what you were going for now - basically speculation about ADP and guys you think will be drafted too high based on that.  I didn't mention Cam because I think he will probably be overvalued but wouldn't have a problem with someone taking him in rd 2 and I'm not sure what to think about Forte yet.  Check out Garner's 2002 season in OAK under Trestman though and tell me that doesn't have you intrigued about Forte for 2013.  Also, I think CJohnson is OK in rd 3.  I prob would pass on him but that ADP seems appropriate to me.

The guys that I mentioned were just off the top of my head and I didn't mean to imply that both Spiller & DMartin won't have great seasons, it's just that you will prob have to take Martin with a top 6 pick and Spiller with a top 12 pick this year.  Last season Martin went 3rd rd or later and Spiller was a middle to late rd pick.  I think that Roddy & Gore will be late 2nd/early 3rd picks and I don't like either in that range.  I expect their stats to decline from this season.  Dez was awesome but is still a headcase and I could see a Braylon Edwards-like 4th year drop off for him.  I don't think I'd be comfortable using a 2nd rd pick on him.  Decker's end of season value was mostly tied to his 13 TD's, which can drop off substantially.  Andre will be another year older + is a constant injury risk + the TD are never there.  Cobb will be overvalued if he ends up getting drafted over guys like Cruz & Fitz.  As I mentioned before, I really think that DMAC & RMatthews will drop significantly in the rankings from 12 to 13, therefore they will not be overvalued to me.

#5 cbe_88

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 03:15 PM

Gotcha.

And in my assessments, I'm not even necessarily saying that these guys aren't "worth" where they're going. I'm simply stating why I likely won't be opting for them at the ADP they're suggested at. There's reason to say Chris Johnson is worth a 3rd rounder, I'm merely analyzing while I'll be skipping him in next year's drafts.

And Cam, I woudn't have a problem with someone taking him in round 2 either. I'm just stating why that guy won't be me. That's what this thread is for. Guys you think are good fantasy players, but ones you'll probably end up avoiding because of how early they're going and what situation they're in.

Basically why you will probably be passing certain guys based on their ADP, even though they're solid to very good players.

Forte is your best argument here, and there's a reason i had a disclaimer on him saying "Now with a new staff in play, we'll see if this legitimately changes" because he's one of the most dynamic backs in the league. I can't officially rule him out especially in the 3rd-4th round range. It might have been a little ambitious of me to have him on here. If he gets a much more increased role next year, which is entirely possible with a new staff, he's got some serious upside. Those changes indeed are on the way, and there's a real possibility that boosts Forte's value. I still hate Bush there being the unquestioned goal line stealer, but I get your point.

And Decker is a pretty solid 3rd rounder in my mind. I don't see his TD-upside going anywhere as long as future hall of famer Peyton is at the helm. I'm a big fan of the Decker-Manning connection, and although DT is the true number one, Peyton's lack of arm strength these days actually caters to Decker over Thomas at times. I'm fine with Decker, the 3rd is early so I see it, but I like him next year.

Cobb I could be on board with however, if he goes early enough I see blown up value for him. He's Rodgers no1 guy it looks like which is great. But in that offense it's built in for all those GB WR's to have some serious share of down weeks. Not to mention GB has been running it nearly as much as passing it these days.

Edited by cbe_88, 24 January 2013 - 03:17 PM.


#6 rraayy3

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 05:01 PM

Adrian Peterson.

injury prone.

not serious.

#7 cbe_88

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 05:16 PM

View Postrraayy3, on 24 January 2013 - 05:01 PM, said:

Adrian Peterson.

injury prone.

not serious.

lol nice...are you really buying on Decker being overvalued? Idk man, he will come as an expensive rate next August, but I think you could definitely do worse in the 3rd round. I love his TD potential every week.

#8 Zak0221

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 05:34 PM

The only pick that will be Overvalued is Hakeem Nicks and Romo........................











psyche.

I actually think Forte will be undervalued and I am hoping to snag him as my RB2 but as a RB1, yes he is overvalued.  Overvalued depends on how things shake out obviously as some people have "their" guys targeted.  One guy who I think we can all agree will be overvalued is Chris Johnson.  As soon as the summer ends, every expert will point out how unsafe RB is after the top 4-5 guys and will talk about the Titans potential this and that.

I just don't know how you trust Johnson as a RB1 anymore, as a RB2 again like Forte I am I would be all for that, pairing him with a solid rock RB1.  Its just hard to speculate who is overvalued unless we have an 'official' list of ranks then we can nitpick from it who is ranked a lil too high for our tastes.  Right now this is too much guess-timation ( yea I made that up).  

SO someone find us an official ranks list, overall top 100 and we can pick through that.  Maybe just top 50 or 75.

#9 J.T. Marlin

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:06 PM

I really liked Decker coming into this season and he paid off for those that drafted him as his ADP I believe was rd 5 or later.  He didn't get the yardage that I expected but the 13 TD's were great.  You can't count on the TD's though and I think that will inflate his ADP for 2013.  Look at the past year's WR TD leaders that did not have exceptional rec & yardage and see how they fared the year after.  2011 - Jordy & LRobinson 2010 - Bowe & MWilliams(TB) 2009 - Desean & Meachem.  This is also why I think James Jones will be drafted too high as well for 2013.  Right now I'd be more comfortable taking Fitz & Cruz in rd 3 over Decker.

#10 DocJ

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:39 PM

Don't forget that Decker caught 11 tds in 2011 as well without Manning. While he may not hit 13 again I think double digits is highly probable. Big increase in yardage, probably not. I could see him having almost a carbon copy of this season next season, 85-1100-10

Go Gophs.

Edited by DocJ, 24 January 2013 - 06:40 PM.

2014 RW Mock Real League: 14-team, 0.5 PPR, All TDs 6 pts

Draft currently in progress in "Your League" Forum

QB: Nick Foles (8.09)
RB1: Frank Gore (5.06)
RB2: Danny Woodhead (6.09)
WR1: Calvin Johnson (1.06)
WR2: Julio Jones (2.09)
W/R/T: Keenan Allen (3.06)
W/R/T: Cordarrelle Patterson (4.09)
TE: Heath Miller (10.09)
DEF:
K:

Bench: Golden Tate (7.06), LeGarrette Blount (9.06)

#11 cbe_88

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 06:40 PM

Well I think you can count on TD's pretty well when Peyton Manning is leading your offense. round 3 is expensive but he's one of the guys I'll be thinking of in that round. And it's not like he had pitiful yardage. I agree, however, that James Jones shouldn't be counted on.

And Zak, a resounding agreement on CJ1K.

#12 lawilt

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Posted 24 January 2013 - 09:25 PM

I have a feeling by the time preseason rolls around DMC and CJ2K will become 2nd round picks just based on their upload and the fact that QB and WR will be so deep that I could see a lot of people going RB 3 of their first 5 picks.
16 Team Dynasty/Keeper League(8 Keepers)
QB, 2RB, 2WR, RB/WR, TE, DEF, K, 7 Bench spots
QB: Ben Roethlisbeger, Kirk Cousins
RB: Marshawn Lynch, Andre Ellington, Christine Michael, V Ballard, Latavius Murray, Jordan Todman, Edwin Baker
WR: Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Greg Jennings, Aldrick Robinson, Jeremy Kerley
TE: Jimmy Graham
Def: Seahwaks
K:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 Team Dynasty League
QB and any 9 combination of RB, WR, TE
QB: Romo, Alex Smith
RB: Jamal Charles, Forte, Andre Ellington, DeAngelo, Kenjon Barner, Edwin Baker, Shonn Greene, Rashad Jennings
WR: Antonio Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Hakeem Nicks, James Jones, Andre Holmes, Lance Moore, Aldrick Robinson
TE: Dennis Pitta, Brent Celek, Fasano
Def: Browns, Rams

#13 shypri

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 08:31 AM

Stevan Ridley - not enough job security at his expected price
Reggie Wayne - had a surprising renaissance. But he is getting slower every year and the other receivers will only get better.
Joe Flacco - Tough competitor with the tendency to play up/down to his opponents. Consistency a big issue for fantasy purposes.
10 team league (includes OPS and BB for hitters, K/BB and QS for pitchers)

C : Santana
1B: Freeman
2B: Carpenter
3B: Miggy
SS: Peralta
IF: LaRoche
LF: Choo
CF: Puig
RF: Heyward
OF: Stanton
UTI: Crisp
UTI:Aramis



SP: Verlander, Cobb, Lester, Fister, Kennedy, TyRoss, Stroman, Miley, Odorizzi
RP:  Rosenthal, Robertson, Doolittle, Allen

#14 pacosarae

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 08:43 AM

I can't see them not slipping substantially in 2013 drafts.  I'd like to have one of them in the 5th/6th round range or for Posted ImagePosted Imagecheap in my auctions as my 3rd RB.

#15 cbe_88

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 10:40 AM

View Postshypri, on 25 January 2013 - 08:31 AM, said:

Stevan Ridley - not enough job security at his expected price
Reggie Wayne - had a surprising renaissance. But he is getting slower every year and the other receivers will only get better.
Joe Flacco - Tough competitor with the tendency to play up/down to his opponents. Consistency a big issue for fantasy purposes.

I can agree with Wayne and Flacco here. Never liked Flacco for fantasy purposes despite respecting his postseason play. And yeah it's hard to see Wayne keep going in 2013. Hilton will emerge, and Wayne is turning what, 34? 35?

#16 Spike11

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 11:22 AM

Maybe Knowshon Moreno and or Willis McGahee? Willis was having a nice season before the injury, probably gonna have to draft both to feel secure, each hurting each others value possibly? Might have to overvalue the handcuff?

Same situation with Bradshaw and Wilson possibly. Who do you reach for and is it worth it?


Matt Stafford... without Titus Young his numbers will dwindle..... sike, lol.



.

#17 rraayy3

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:01 PM

View PostSpike11, on 25 January 2013 - 11:22 AM, said:

Maybe Knowshon Moreno and or Willis McGahee? Willis was having a nice season before the injury, probably gonna have to draft both to feel secure, each hurting each others value possibly? Might have to overvalue the handcuff?

Same situation with Bradshaw and Wilson possibly. Who do you reach for and is it worth it?


Matt Stafford... without Titus Young his numbers will dwindle..... sike, lol.



.

Wilson.



Yes it is. His power/hands out of the backfield were even better than I expected. The speed is also unfair.

Edited by rraayy3, 25 January 2013 - 12:05 PM.


#18 cbe_88

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:15 PM

View Postrraayy3, on 25 January 2013 - 12:01 PM, said:

View PostSpike11, on 25 January 2013 - 11:22 AM, said:

Maybe Knowshon Moreno and or Willis McGahee? Willis was having a nice season before the injury, probably gonna have to draft both to feel secure, each hurting each others value possibly? Might have to overvalue the handcuff?

Same situation with Bradshaw and Wilson possibly. Who do you reach for and is it worth it?


Matt Stafford... without Titus Young his numbers will dwindle..... sike, lol.



.
Wilson.

Yes it is.

I love David Wilson, but it is looking like it's possible he could be a little overvalued this year when looking at where his ADP is shaping up. David Wilson might be going so high, that you'll have to depend on him as your RB2 right off the bat. If Bradshaw is still the on-paper starter that's betting a lot on him emerging as the clear-cut starter by mid-season although it's very possible that happens.

If you can get him for a flex price this is a much less "overvalued" conversation, but his ADP could be flirting with as high as the 4th and 5th rounds come August, speculating him a lot closer to an RB2...which is some serious hyped value for a guy that isn't the starter of his own RB corps. Dude's an uber-talented RB and I'm pumped to see what he can do next year. But the more people catch on, the more overpriced he could become. Not saying he won't be worth it, but he carries real risk going that early.

Spike I'm def on board with Mcgahee being a possible overvalue next year. Yes, it's speculated he comes back next year as the starter, but talk about an aging back on the downturn of his career. It's no surprise he broke a bone being well over 30 at the end of this year. Knowshon, however, could be the exact opposite, undervalue, I see him having to fill-in in a big way again next year similar to this year. I'm worried about Hillman though if Mcgahee went down next year. Is Hillman the guy to own next year after getting a year under his belt, if Mcgahee goes down again? He sucks at pass protecting but he's so quick. I still think Moreno is actually a possible value pick in the mid-to-late rounds, but I'm on board with Mcgahee being an overvalue pick.

#19 Spike11

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 12:52 PM

I agree about Wilson, above the sky, stratosphere, galaxy, ect. ect.
So we're banking on Bradshaw to be out of the picture by midseason, out of training camp, or does it matter...will Wilson's uber greatness just overcome a timeshare of whatever nature?

Same line with the Denver situation at RB..... you can also sprinkle in a little Bryce Brown, McCoy nervousness, although I think McCoy will retain his role but theres a little doubt in my mind, I hate doubt. I also felt un-nerved by Bernard Pierce's playing time down the stretch.

1st Round RB's are getting so chancy outside a few I think 2013's drafts are gonna be crazy and I think WR's as a group are gonna be flying off the boards way early. IDK.

Im thinking guys like MJD, DMC, and CJ are gonna have to be overvalued to an extent.

#20 cbe_88

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Posted 25 January 2013 - 01:32 PM

I wouldn't group MJD with DMC and CJ...the latter two are seemingly always high potential for overvalue as always, but I'm not sure about MJD. He's not gonna hold out this offseason which should do well for him. Was the Lisfranc surgery a true sign of breaking down? He still hasn't hit the dreaded 30 mark, so I think he's a candidate to live up to his 2nd round price. He's one of the only RB's I'll be pondering in the 2nd round.

And about the McCoy/BB and Rice/Pierce nonsense...idk man. It's right to be worried about it...but I don't know that it truly cuts into their value enough for those two to be overvalued. If I get the 4th pick of next year's draft, I still think I'm okay with landing a Ray Rice.

Situations like these (talented back-ups waiting to emerge) are usually MUCH more to worry about, but guys like Rice and McCoy are so well known by the league and their staff as the premiere talent at their position, which plays into their immense lock for at least very solid production. Pierce is a real shot to be a 6-10 carry a game guy which I don't like, but I don't think Pierce vultures TD's from Rice, honestly which keeps him as a top-5 candidate for me. And really, even with 10 carries, BAL will make sure Rice gets his 20-25 carries regardless of Bernard's carries. It's pretty likely that Pierce's only TD's will be the ones he breaks off for 40 yards.

McCoy is the one that actually slips to late 1st early 2nd value because Philly is a mess right now, no o-line outside of Peters if he can come back and no QB yet determined. McCoy's value is pending on what Kelly's rebuilding efforts look like this offseason. Even so, McCoy is a lock for double digits every week which is pretty incredible. He's a guy like Rice, that, regardless of a talented guy behind him in the depth chart, will get his well-deserving carries and most if not all the shots at the endzone. Pierce ranks higher on the worry factor for me than BB, however, BB has fumbling issues and needs to be seriously groomed despite amazing talent. Pierce on the other hand...it looks like he could be a starter on any other team, that guy looks ready.