Jump to content

Visit Rotoworld.comRotoworld Forums  
Rotoworld: MLB | NFL | NBA | NHL | NASCAR | CFB
Sports Talk Blogs: PFT | HBT | PBT | CFT | PHT
  Visit NBCSports.com

Photo
- - - - -

2013 Overvalued Picks


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
90 replies to this topic

#21 swc88

swc88

    Rookie

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 151 posts

Posted 27 January 2013 - 06:05 PM

Overvalued:

CJ Spiller - what has he really proven for him to be a top 5 pick next year? Hes electric but so are guys like mcfadden. He will get hyped up a ton in the offseason and might even go top 3
Trent Richardson - low YPC.. has been hurt a few times in his career, plays on s---y offense.
Aaron Rodgers - just too many good QBs out there for him to go in the first round, let alone any QB going in the first round
TY Hilton - he will get hyped up to the 6th round next year.. i would rather get him in the 8th - 9th
Josh Gordon - similar to Hilton, will get extremely hyped up as a breakout candidate

Undervalued:
MJD
LeSean McCoy - if you can get him mid second round thats a steal
Alred Morris - some people might think hes a fluke and he will fall to mid second round, also, hes not a "sexy" pick
Darren McFadden - would love to get McFadden in the fifth round next year
Ryan Matthews -, he might fall to the 8th round he was so bad this year.
Russell Wilson -just as good as RG3 but can get a lot cheaper.

#22 cowbell204

cowbell204

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,403 posts

Posted 27 January 2013 - 10:56 PM

No way Ryan Matthews falls to the 8th round in any of my leagues, as I'll take him in the 4th.

#23 rraayy3

rraayy3

    Hall of Famer

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,393 posts

Posted 27 January 2013 - 11:41 PM

Watch Spiller play.
Richardson is 1 of a handful of RBs that gets 20-25 touches a game.
Aaron Rodgers is the only elite passer that offers rushing potential and can put up 30+ any given week.
Hilton in the 6th round isn't bad, depending on league size. He's awesome.
Gordon will be hyped because he's a stud talent that was a good WR3 as a rookie despite being out of football for a year.

Ryan Mathews will go in the 8th round. Of 4 team leagues.
Everyone would love to get Mcfadden in the 5th round.


#24 cbe_88

cbe_88

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,772 posts

Posted 28 January 2013 - 11:51 AM

Overvalued:

CJ Spiller - what has he really proven for him to be a top 5 pick next year? Hes electric but so are guys like mcfadden. He will get hyped up a ton in the offseason and might even go top 3
Trent Richardson - low YPC.. has been hurt a few times in his career, plays on s---y offense.
Aaron Rodgers - just too many good QBs out there for him to go in the first round, let alone any QB going in the first round
TY Hilton - he will get hyped up to the 6th round next year.. i would rather get him in the 8th - 9th
Josh Gordon - similar to Hilton, will get extremely hyped up as a breakout candidate

Undervalued:
MJD
LeSean McCoy - if you can get him mid second round thats a steal
Alred Morris - some people might think hes a fluke and he will fall to mid second round, also, hes not a "sexy" pick
Darren McFadden - would love to get McFadden in the fifth round next year
Ryan Matthews -, he might fall to the 8th round he was so bad this year.
Russell Wilson -just as good as RG3 but can get a lot cheaper.


I'm actually on board with a lot of your overvalued picks. With T-Rich I understand the crappy offense, and him being a 1st round pick, he's a workhorse however, so can't bust too horribly unless injuries occur to overuse. My biggest disagreement is CJ Spiller. He'll clearly be an end of the 1st round guy, not top-3 or top-5. With F-Jax in the picture CJ will likely be in the 8th-12th range. F-Jax was a bit of a headache last year, which makes for possible blown up value, but I must say it was amazing owning Spiller last year. Even with F-Jax, his YPC was so incredible that he was a near lock for double digits pts in yards alone every single week. Spiller still has TD-upside just because of his strong ability to break off long yardage. Love his receptions/carries tandem he has going too, and a pretty solid o-line.

I can see McCoy being a strong undervalue in the 2nd round based on his talent. I actually wouldn't mind Hilton in the 6th-7th round range, but that's just me.

#25 Zak0221

Zak0221

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,063 posts

Posted 29 January 2013 - 12:40 PM

Hilton may be a risk as a 6-7th pick as it will be a new offense now without Arians, and I think the new OC ( who was it again?) has already said they will run more of a WC, quick passing style attack with power running.

Arians has a very vertical scheme and will take shots downfield every game regardless of what is happening. Hilton will probably get a bomb thrown to him here n there but it won't be as often as last year....he will have to have his long TDs tru YAC tho he is capable but I think unless I can get him super late as like my 4-5th receiver id be hesitant having him as my #2 which is around the 6th round.

Also Luck's passing yardage may take a dip as Arians was very pass happy and in large chunks, I could see Luck's yardage settle more around the 3,500 - 3,750 rather than building upon a 4,300 season and improving to closer to 4,600 ish.

Colt's sched also gets tougher next year tho they still get Titans twice and Jags twice and play indoors.
Use this information how you will :)

Edited by Zak0221, 29 January 2013 - 12:42 PM.


#26 PhilBinLaden

PhilBinLaden

    Triple-A

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 64 posts

Posted 29 January 2013 - 05:08 PM

Colin Kaepernik will be overvalued in the Michael Vick Role from a couple years ago. I just don't think we're going to see so much success with the option read plays next year which limits his potential. I'd rather have Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer heading into 2013.

MIchael Crabtree's stock is going to skyrocket next year, not sure if he'll make his fantasy owners proud or disappointed with a 3rd/4th round pick.

If McFadden and Ryan Matthews get 1st/2nd round adp hype from Rotoworld or any other news outlets I use, I will immediately shut em off and never come back again. They were definitely the major overvalues of 2013. Personally, I think that CJ Spiller is another DMC with all the potential but gets hurt throughout the season.

I'd like there to be a thread on guys that will get undervalued and burst onto the scene. Some names to throw into the mix would be DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, and maybe Fred Jackson if he vultures goal line tds to start and eventually becomes the starter for an injured CJ Spiller.
10 Team Standard (Passing TDs 6 pts)
QB - Aaron Rodgers
RB - Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin, Terrence West
WR - Keenan Allen, DeSean Jackson, Golden Tate, Terrence Williams
TE - Zack Ertz, Dennis Pitta
DEF - Cardinals
K - Dan Bailey

Fantasy Football the only game that implores 1% skill and 99% luck, and yet we spend long hours reading news and updates around the NFL from multiple outlets (ignoring our girlfriends/wives/children) hoping to improve our luck with that 1% of skill.

#27 BxBOMBERs28

BxBOMBERs28

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,775 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 03:27 AM

Colin Kaepernik will be overvalued in the Michael Vick Role from a couple years ago. I just don't think we're going to see so much success with the option read plays next year which limits his potential. I'd rather have Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer heading into 2013.

MIchael Crabtree's stock is going to skyrocket next year, not sure if he'll make his fantasy owners proud or disappointed with a 3rd/4th round pick.

If McFadden and Ryan Matthews get 1st/2nd round adp hype from Rotoworld or any other news outlets I use, I will immediately shut em off and never come back again. They were definitely the major overvalues of 2013. Personally, I think that CJ Spiller is another DMC with all the potential but gets hurt throughout the season.

I'd like there to be a thread on guys that will get undervalued and burst onto the scene. Some names to throw into the mix would be DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, and maybe Fred Jackson if he vultures goal line tds to start and eventually becomes the starter for an injured CJ Spiller.


Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer over Kaepernick? Dont understand that one. He doesn't need the read-option to stay successful. I agree with what you said about Spiller tho.

Edited by BxBOMBERs28, 30 January 2013 - 03:31 AM.


#28 J.T. Marlin

J.T. Marlin

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 996 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 11:03 AM

CJ Spiller is already being ranked 4th overall for next season by Rotoworld/Silva. This is almost exactly where Rotoworld had Ryan Matthews in their early 2012 rankings (in the 3-5 range overall). They are assuming that an extremely productive and talented time-share RB will explode if given the feature RB role and a significant increase in touches. I'm not saying that Spiller and Matthews are the same player but the early rankings and assumptions are eerily similar. You are reaching for the upside and not the actual production if taking Spiller that high. To me, that is the perfect example of a player being overvalued.

#29 rraayy3

rraayy3

    Hall of Famer

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,393 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 11:09 AM


The Mathews hype stemmed from his top 10 2011 season + Tolbert leaving in free agency. Norv said he'd be the "workhorse", 1 naturally would assume Mathews should be another lock for top 10 RB with top 5 upside. No one saw Jackie Battle/Ronnie Brown/2 broken clavicles coming ...

I'd understand the Spiller hype if Jackson leaves ... but no way I'm drafting him top 5 if Jackson is still there.

#30 cbe_88

cbe_88

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,772 posts

Posted 30 January 2013 - 03:11 PM

I'd like there to be a thread on guys that will get undervalued and burst onto the scene. Some names to throw into the mix would be DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, and maybe Fred Jackson if he vultures goal line tds to start and eventually becomes the starter for an injured CJ Spiller.


there is: http://forums.rotowo...howtopic=332995

And, yes, Kaep is liable to disappoint next year, but in no scenario would I ever take Palmer or Dalton over him. Kaep's insane top-5 upside isn't to be argued, and the other two you mentioned have no floor or ceiling of production to be confident in. Kaep is a middle round QB that should be paired with another serviceable QB, IMO.

and Spiller being a guy that gets hurt throughout the season similar to DMC? I disagree, a minor shoulder injury last year only missing, I believe, 1 game in his professional career isn't enough to say that Spiller will be an injury-prone disappointment. The dude is as young as it gets, and has reason to be taken at then end of the 1st round.

However, all that said, Spiller in the top-5, as long as F-Jax is still in the picture, is dumb talk. Honestly, I'd be shocked if he ends up being a top-5 pick. He in no way deserves to be picked above guys like Doug Martin and Ray Rice, or even T-Rich who has no other competition for carries. As much as I love Spiller he shouldn't be touched as a top-5 pick. I'm all over him in the 8th-12th range, however, I could make a strong case for him. This is more where I expect him to go with F-Jax staying in Buffalo. It's the top-5 RB's first, then Rodgers and Brees, then Spiller can be considered.

And despite similar hype and ADP, I just don't think Spiller is in any way a Mathews 2.0 of last year, nor will he end up being that. They're very different backs, and although both talented, I'd say Spiller is the better talent, and he's really taken advantage of the limited opportunities he's been given in his young career, and I can't say such lofty things about Mathews. I do think Mathews could deserve to be mentioned as a vlaue pick, however.

#31 petekrum

petekrum

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 662 posts

Posted 16 February 2013 - 06:10 PM

Any Raven except Rice,most notably Flacco and Boldin.
The boar runs from the tiger.
It is not cowardice. It is love of life.

#32 petekrum

petekrum

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 662 posts

Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:58 AM

No way Ryan Matthews falls to the 8th round in any of my leagues, as I'll take him in the 4th.


I have no love forfor Matthews, but if he falls to the eighth round you are in a league filed with the mentally challenged.
The boar runs from the tiger.
It is not cowardice. It is love of life.

#33 cbe_88

cbe_88

    Superstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,772 posts

Posted 19 February 2013 - 05:28 PM

Any Raven except Rice,most notably Flacco and Boldin.


Every time I fool myself into thinking that the BAL offense is evolving into a pass-first offense, I remind myself that they have Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. McCoy and BB are up there, Spiller-FJax is good but F-Jax is clearly aging and not the same. Rice and Pierce is probably one of the best if not the best RB duo in the league - you can only stray away from the running game so much when you have those two.

I like the fact that Boldin is a very physical and complete receiver, and I'd be willing to think about him if he's super cheap, but I agree, and no way on Flacco for fantasy. Rice is really the only Raven on my radar.

What about Alfred as a potential overvalue candidate? I know he burst onto the scene last year in a very impressive way, but the man who has only one year under his belt is already being projected as a 1st round RB? I'll pass at that expensive price, I see overvalue. That Washington offense is completely dependent on RG3. If RG3 has to miss the beginning of the season and/or misses extended time, I'm willing to bet that that offense is a unit that isn't as generous in fantasy points as we saw in 2012. I know Cousins stepped in nicely for one week, but filling in for extended time, as it's clear RG3 won't over-push a speedy recovery, it's an unknown variable that should be recognized when clicking the draft button on Alfred with your first round pick. Alf was beastly on his own, no doubt, but his consistency in fantasy production was directly related to the threat of RG3. Alf should still be at least decently productive, but the RG3 factor alone presents possible overvalue.

I'm just saying if I have a late first round pick and Alf is the best RB left that's available, I probably switch to a top-2 WR or Brees/Rodgers at that point.

#34 petekrum

petekrum

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 662 posts

Posted 19 February 2013 - 06:04 PM

Colin Kaepernik will be overvalued in the Michael Vick Role from a couple years ago. I just don't think we're going to see so much success with the option read plays next year which limits his potential. I'd rather have Andy Dalton or Carson Palmer heading into 2013.

MIchael Crabtree's stock is going to skyrocket next year, not sure if he'll make his fantasy owners proud or disappointed with a 3rd/4th round pick.

If McFadden and Ryan Matthews get 1st/2nd round adp hype from Rotoworld or any other news outlets I use, I will immediately shut em off and never come back again. They were definitely the major overvalues of 2013. Personally, I think that CJ Spiller is another DMC with all the potential but gets hurt throughout the season.

I'd like there to be a thread on guys that will get undervalued and burst onto the scene. Some names to throw into the mix would be DeSean Jackson, Greg Jennings, and maybe Fred Jackson if he vultures goal line tds to start and eventually becomes the starter for an injured CJ Spiller.


Dalton or Palmer? Really? Enjoy going 3-10.
The boar runs from the tiger.
It is not cowardice. It is love of life.

#35 Ribobizert

Ribobizert

    Veteran

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 268 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:19 AM

Palmer might not even be on the Raiders next season, much less a starting QB. Given how much his contract is worth & the Raiders are not subject to any cap penalties or lose any guaranteed money, it would make sense to cut Palmer if Tyrel Prior shows any promise. Though if he is cut it might actually be a good thing for Palmer as the Oakland is where good players go to die- ask Jerry Rice & Warren Sapp about that.

I think many of the RBs outside of AP, Foster, Lynch, Martin, Charles, Spiller, Mccoy, & Rice will be over valued. These days most casual owners will be subject to whatever ESPN/rotoworld shoves down their throats. 2013 will be the year of "Wait on QBs", "Draft RBs early", "WR is even deeper than QB." if most people follow those mantras watch how fast RBs start flying off the board, i wouldn't be surprised to see all of the "option #1" RB's on teams (top 25-30 rated RBs) to be taken by end of the 4th round. If this does happen then some of the upper tier QBs and WRs will fall slightly, making them somewhat steals.

I know this goes against the statistical analysis of value based drafting, but a key part of the game is never overpay for players and grabbing players that fall past where they "should" be drafted. They say QB is madddd deep next year but how many of those guys can you depend on to put up 20+ every week? proven track records go along way in adding value to the elite players at any position. I could wait to get Luck/Kaep/Wilson/etc. in the mid 5th, but what kind of track record do they have? I don't have any problem with playing it safe and taking Rodgers/Brees/Brady in the late 1st early 2nd round, dare i say late 2nd. Just a thought, feeling of the way i think many drafts will lay out next yr.

#36 malta69

malta69

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,644 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:00 PM

If McFadden and Ryan Matthews get 1st/2nd round adp hype from Rotoworld or any other news outlets I use, I will immediately shut em off and never come back again. They were definitely the major overvalues of 2013.


I've actually brought this up a few times in threads during the season, and maybe I'm alone with this, but I had a real big problem with the way the Matthews situation was addressed by some of the writers/contributors on here last year. By around Halloween this year, it was more than evident that Matthews season was a wash. By this point, those who hyped him to those ridiculous levels (and let's not live in denial, several established writers here were calling him a TOP 5 pick even after the collarbone) were willing to concede to some extent that it just wasn't going to happen, but instead of analyzing the Matthews situation objectively, you'd STILL read weekly articles where people would try to rationalize him as a "solid #2 RB". Really??? How many Thursdays would we see him ranked as a top 15 - 20 RB option in the Rankings WELL into the year. I've been a RW member for years, and always put stock into their rankings more than any other site, but the borderline stubborness when it came to this guy last year was unprecedented on the site.

And don't get me wrong here - I did not own the guy in any of my leagues last year so I don't mean to come off as an "owner scorned". I guess my point is that none of us are infallible when it comes to predicting breakouts or managing man-crushes whether we get paid for it or not, but when it begins to compromise certain people's credibility, isn't enough enough?

Edited by malta69, 20 February 2013 - 01:03 PM.

Bases...
2008 Extra Base Hit Dynasty League Champion - The Inaugural Season

Foots...
'06, '07, '08 & '09 Boozers & Losers League Champ

#37 rraayy3

rraayy3

    Hall of Famer

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,393 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:23 PM

Mathews was a top 10 fantasy RB in 2011. Love him, hate him, "injury prone", whatever - the guy produced stud RB numbers despite a TD vulture. This was not pure speculation and blindly recommending Mathews as a top pick ... his vulture left and he was coming off a very productive season.

The weekly ranks were annoying, but it's your own fault if you stuck to someone else's ranks instead of thinking for yourself (speaking in general, not to you). No one saw Battle/Brown stealing a lot of touches ... no one. And anyone that took Mathews top 5-10, after a broken clavicle, has no one to blame but themselves.

The hype was big ... but don't pretend Mathews is some scrub that rotoworld was blindly hyping in 2012. He looked great in 2011 and his TD vulture left in free agency ... it made a ton of sense to expect him to finish as a top 10 RB with top 5 upside (because he already has been a top 10 rb).



#38 J.T. Marlin

J.T. Marlin

    Allstar

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 996 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:30 PM


If McFadden and Ryan Matthews get 1st/2nd round adp hype from Rotoworld or any other news outlets I use, I will immediately shut em off and never come back again. They were definitely the major overvalues of 2013.


I've actually brought this up a few times in threads during the season, and maybe I'm alone with this, but I had a real big problem with the way the Matthews situation was addressed by some of the writers/contributors on here last year. By around Halloween this year, it was more than evident that Matthews season was a wash. By this point, those who hyped him to those ridiculous levels (and let's not live in denial, several established writers here were calling him a TOP 5 pick even after the collarbone) were willing to concede to some extent that it just wasn't going to happen, but instead of analyzing the Matthews situation objectively, you'd STILL read weekly articles where people would try to rationalize him as a "solid #2 RB". Really??? How many Thursdays would we see him ranked as a top 15 - 20 RB option in the Rankings WELL into the year. I've been a RW member for years, and always put stock into their rankings more than any other site, but the borderline stubborness when it came to this guy last year was unprecedented on the site.

And don't get me wrong here - I did not own the guy in any of my leagues last year so I don't mean to come off as an "owner scorned". I guess my point is that none of us are infallible when it comes to predicting breakouts or managing man-crushes whether we get paid for it or not, but when it begins to compromise certain people's credibility, isn't enough enough?


Agreed that Rotoworld really overhyped this guy and then didn't react fast enough when it was clear he was a bust. I think Daugherty ate some crow about Matthews during his chats by late Oct.

Looking forward to 2013 though, Matthews will likely end up being undervalued. Think about how many owners were burned over the last 3 years by Matthews. He's now on their "do not draft" list. Plus, many Fantasy Experts/Writers (especially here at Rotoworld) were made to look like fools for ranking this guy as top 10 overall pick in 2012. He will slide considerably in almost all of their 2013 preseason rankings, which many fantasy owners use as a guide for making their picks.

He may fall into the round 6-8 range and, unless SD brings in another legit RB (and I don't consider RBrown, & JBattle caliber RB's as legit), I would definitely take a flier on Matthews as my #3 RB hoping that he will overcome his injury issues and that the SD regime change will reinvigorate the team, along with his production.

#39 malta69

malta69

    On the Ballot

  • Established Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 4,644 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:41 PM

I agree with just about everything that you guys said. And as I mentioned in my post, no one is infallible and I guarantee that you'll NEXT TO NEVER see me criticize a writer, poster, etc. for making any sort of "start/sit" recommendation. That said, I found it almost insulting at times reading the "stick with Matthews" sentiments well into late November/early December. While there will always be instances where people "agree to disagree", I can safely say that I've never seen less objectivity in regards to a player/situation so late in the year like I did with Matthews.

Just hoping that this situation was an exception and doesn't become the norm going forward.
Bases...
2008 Extra Base Hit Dynasty League Champion - The Inaugural Season

Foots...
'06, '07, '08 & '09 Boozers & Losers League Champ

#40 rraayy3

rraayy3

    Hall of Famer

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,393 posts

Posted 20 February 2013 - 01:50 PM

i come here for news/updates ... not ranks ... not starts/sits.