32 replies to this topic

[FouLLine]

After Tommy John Surgery last June Brandon Beachy is targeting a June return, which would put him right at or a little less than a year recovered.  An early return could pose a big risk, but if it was a good surgery and his rehab goes well it is very possible.  In DL leagues this guy could be insane value towards the end of your drafts.

[2ndCitySox]

Perhaps, but I expect some issues, like all post-TJ guys have, when he comes back. Control won't be there. Maybe he would compromise by going back to being a strikeout pitcher and using less finesse.

I think he's a solid DL-stash, but I don't think he will give you better than #4 SP numbers this year. But....lord knows I've been wrong before. The upside makes him a good stash

[natti]

i got a kick out of this article-

http://www.fangraphs...brandon-beachy/

[clutchcityfan]

natti, on 06 March 2013 - 12:45 PM, said:

i got a kick out of this article-

http://www.fangraphs...brandon-beachy/

Couldn't this argument apply to injured players in general? In an auction draft, you could build a team around last year's injured players: Tulo, Bautista, and Longoria. Three potential top 10 players that are coming at a $10 to $15 discount.

If you've followed Steph Curry this season, you see how big the payoff can be. If you owned Tulo last season, you know the obvious downside.

[natti]

clutchcityfan, on 06 March 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

Couldn't this argument apply to injured players in general? In an auction draft, you could build a team around last year's injured players: Tulo, Bautista, and Longoria. Three potential top 10 players that are coming at a $10 to $15 discount.

If you've followed Steph Curry this season, you see how big the payoff can be. If you owned Tulo last season, you know the obvious downside.

the article is referring to fantasy performers that will begin the season on the dl. these players will come at a considerable discount (e.g. the last pick in your draft, a $1-2 auction bid, perhaps off of the ww). you can park them in your dl slot and thus you will not have to waste an active roster spot on them. moreover, they will be a boon to your h2h teams when it matters most.

it's pretty obvious to stash guys like beachy and luebke if you have the space. it's not that the theme of the article was particularly ingenious... i just thought that it was fun

[clutchcityfan]

natti, on 06 March 2013 - 01:31 PM, said:

clutchcityfan, on 06 March 2013 - 01:09 PM, said:

Couldn't this argument apply to injured players in general? In an auction draft, you could build a team around last year's injured players: Tulo, Bautista, and Longoria. Three potential top 10 players that are coming at a $10 to $15 discount.

If you've followed Steph Curry this season, you see how big the payoff can be. If you owned Tulo last season, you know the obvious downside.

the article is referring to fantasy performers that will begin the season on the dl. these players will come at a considerable discount (e.g. the last pick in your draft, a $1-2 auction bid, perhaps off of the ww). you can park them in your dl slot and thus you will not have to waste an active roster spot on them. moreover, they will be a boon to your h2h teams when it matters most.

it's pretty obvious to stash guys like beachy and luebke if you have the space. it's not that the theme of the article was particularly ingenious... i just thought that it was fun

Yeah, I got the gist of the article, and I loved the Pascal's Wager analogy. There really is no downside to taking Beachy and Luebke as your last two picks, aside from the cost of the temporary roster space and any other sleepers who are taken later in the draft.

I also understand that a $1 bid is really different than throwing $30 away in a Tulo prayer.

[natti]

clutchcityfan, on 06 March 2013 - 01:36 PM, said:

There really is no downside to taking Beachy and Luebke as your last two picks, aside from the cost of the temporary roster space and any other sleepers who are taken later in the draft.

^ is what i was hoping to discuss. is it better to use that last draft pick on beachy or on a young prospect such as shelby miller or trevor bauer? their adp's are pretty similar

Edited by natti, 06 March 2013 - 01:55 PM.

[clutchcityfan]

I think it depends on when you draft. If it were my last pick and I'm drafting the weekend before the season starts, I think I'll take Beachy. Then, when players become DL-eligible two days later, I'll try to pick up Shelby Miller.

But if I were drafting tomorrow, and players won't be DL-eligible for three weeks, I would probably just draft Shelby Miller outright or a different last-round sleeper with upside. I don't think I could take staring at a young pitcher with high upside for three weeks on the waiver wire, hoping that someone else in my league doesn't pick him up.

[PhilaFanBoy]

When does Beachy become DL eligible in Yahoo and ESPN leagues?

[ithrowplastic]

PhilaFanBoy, on 21 March 2013 - 01:58 PM, said:

When does Beachy become DL eligible in Yahoo and ESPN leagues?

Whenever the team decides to put him on it.  It's up to them.

[The Big Bat Theory]

In Yahoo it is when the team itself officially commits him to the DL.  Then it may be a day after the fact in some cases on Yahoo because they have been a bit slow on the trigger in these matters.  Hopefully at the start of the season they will be a little more prompt about this.

And a lot of teams wait right up until Opening Day to do this stuff so yeah it is aggravating waiting.

[Howie]

Any Beachy timetable updates?

[Max Rockatansky]

Howie, on 16 April 2013 - 06:52 PM, said:

Any Beachy timetable updates?

no

[Obscene_Domino]

Howie, on 16 April 2013 - 06:52 PM, said:

Any Beachy timetable updates?

Still looking like right after the ASB. Everything is going as planned though no setbacks.

[micyukcha]

Latest update says early June - so he'll be beating the schedule.

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ok_atl&c_id=atl

Been comfortably sitting my DL/bench spot since season's beginnings.  What is the typical performance post-TJ for a starter?  Waino took half a season to settle in.

[TheGreatUnwashed]

micyukcha, on 28 April 2013 - 10:54 PM, said:

Latest update says early June - so he'll be beating the schedule.

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ok_atl&c_id=atl

Been comfortably sitting my DL/bench spot since season's beginnings.  What is the typical performance post-TJ for a starter?  Waino took half a season to settle in.

Yeah that's the trouble. Sometimes guys come back but aren't right until the following season.

[tucker26]

micyukcha, on 28 April 2013 - 10:54 PM, said:

Latest update says early June - so he'll be beating the schedule.

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...ok_atl&c_id=atl

Been comfortably sitting my DL/bench spot since season's beginnings.  What is the typical performance post-TJ for a starter?  Waino took half a season to settle in.

Everyone is different. Some a month or two, some a year, some never. That being said I am hopeful he's up and down for a couple months and then settles in.

[Cmilne23]

Brett Anderson is the last sample to go off of from an in season return from TJ.  And he was great in a small size last season.

[TheGreatUnwashed]

Cmilne23, on 28 April 2013 - 10:58 PM, said:

Brett Anderson is the last sample to go off of from an in season return from TJ.  And he was great in a small size last season.

but has been terrible to start this season.

[Cmilne23]

TheGreatUnwashed, on 28 April 2013 - 11:01 PM, said:

Cmilne23, on 28 April 2013 - 10:58 PM, said:

Brett Anderson is the last sample to go off of from an in season return from TJ.  And he was great in a small size last season.

but has been terrible to start this season.

He was great against Seattle and Houston.  Just had a few hiccups against top hitting teams in Boston and Detroit.  His stuff is the same and he is still throwing a a ton of sliders.  His xFIP is 3.60.  He has had really bad luck in small sample sizes.  His control (which is usually the last thing to come back after TJ) was great last year.  But it has been terrible so far this season.  He is an interesting one to watch.