133 replies to this topic

[cyberer]

This guy paid huge dividends for owners last year, and is the #6 2b by MDC ADP.

What do we think of him this year? His gb % and LD % (higher than pujols), as well as his contact rate suggest the batting average is for real, and he clearly has 30-40 bag speed. In a somewhat weak 2B position, I think he could be a bargain even at that price.
What do we think of him? Where does he hit in the lineup? How many SBs? How many Rs? Is the ~.290 legit?

[FouLLine]

The guy has the potential to be a maniac for batting average.  I also have him pegged for 40ish SBs.  He has tremendous upside.

If his power continues to trend upwards and everything goes well for him he could be a .315 12 HR 45 SB guy ceiling wise.

[klove42]

FouLLine, on 31 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

The guy has the potential to be a maniac for batting average.  I also have him pegged for 40ish SBs.  He has tremendous upside.

If his power continues to trend upwards and everything goes well for him he could be a .315 12 HR 45 SB guy ceiling wise.

I agree with the average and the power, but I dont think he will steal 40 plus. Many viewed him as a 20 plus coming into last season, and he did steal 33. He did steal 39 in 2010 but that was Single A. He also got caught 11 times last year. I think 30+ steals is possible again, but 40 plus might be too optimistic.

[Cmilne23]

Great player stuck in a crumby situation.  He feasted off the Cards and Brewers pitching staffs as well.  He is essentially changing leagues now as the Astros move to the AL.  .413 with 14 runs scored, 2 hr, 7 RBI against the Brewers in 63 at bats, .350 with 2 hr 7 rbi vs. the Cardinals in 60 at bats.  AL West is a pretty stingy pitching division as a lot of the games are played at night in pitcher parks.  In limited sample sizes vs. west coast NL teams he struggled mightly.  I still like him overall as a hitter as he makes really hard, solid contact.  Seems like he always barrels up on the ball.  He gets a lot of loud outs.  Astros did nothing to upgrade that horrifying lineup so all of his value will probably be tied into his average and steals.  I'd probably pass on him for this year just because I hate owning guys in just dreadful, bottom 3 lineups.  But I can certainly see why people would want to own him.

Edited by Cmilne23, 31 January 2013 - 12:14 PM.

[cyberer]

Will he leadoff?

[klove42]

cyberer, on 31 January 2013 - 12:31 PM, said:

Will he leadoff?

He batted first or second the majority of last year, so I dont see why he wouldnt be in the top of the lineup this year

[RespectMyAuthority]

Cmilne23, on 31 January 2013 - 12:13 PM, said:

Great player stuck in a crumby situation.  He feasted off the Cards and Brewers pitching staffs as well.  He is essentially changing leagues now as the Astros move to the AL.  .413 with 14 runs scored, 2 hr, 7 RBI against the Brewers in 63 at bats, .350 with 2 hr 7 rbi vs. the Cardinals in 60 at bats.  AL West is a pretty stingy pitching division as a lot of the games are played at night in pitcher parks.  In limited sample sizes vs. west coast NL teams he struggled mightly.  I still like him overall as a hitter as he makes really hard, solid contact.  Seems like he always barrels up on the ball.  He gets a lot of loud outs.  Astros did nothing to upgrade that horrifying lineup so all of his value will probably be tied into his average and steals.  I'd probably pass on him for this year just because I hate owning guys in just dreadful, bottom 3 lineups.  But I can certainly see why people would want to own him.

I do agree, he is actually taking a small step back in Divisional Opponents and Ballparks, but he'll also benefit from having an extra hitter potentially being on base infront of him, rather than an automatic out by the pitcher.

[South Jersey Bombers]

love his upside, 35-45 sb hopefully.

[FouLLine]

klove42, on 31 January 2013 - 12:12 PM, said:

FouLLine, on 31 January 2013 - 12:03 PM, said:

The guy has the potential to be a maniac for batting average.  I also have him pegged for 40ish SBs.  He has tremendous upside.

If his power continues to trend upwards and everything goes well for him he could be a .315 12 HR 45 SB guy ceiling wise.

I agree with the average and the power, but I dont think he will steal 40 plus. Many viewed him as a 20 plus coming into last season, and he did steal 33. He did steal 39 in 2010 but that was Single A. He also got caught 11 times last year. I think 30+ steals is possible again, but 40 plus might be too optimistic.

40+ is certainly optimistic.  I was projecting him on the higher side of his ceiling.  Realistically he'll probably steal 36 bases.  

I do however fully expect an increase in steals from him, just simply because I see him getting on base more.  Despite a very nice increase in plate discipline in the second half his batting average went down (tough luck).  If he continues improving his already great plate discipline there's little reason I see him outside of the top 4 OBP's for second basemen in the .365+ range.

[parrothead]

So in my league, the "average" player when it comes to winning every category would be a .280 Hitter with 21HR 80RBI 78RUNS and 12 Stolen Bases.

So when I look at players, I look at all 5 categories and in each of those categories I think:
Are they neutral (putting up right around where that average is) are they an asset or serious asset where they are likely to exceed or far exceed that average or are they a liability or serious liability in a particular category.

So when I look at Altuve:
Average - asset, potentially serious asset.
HR - liability to serious liability - I realize some think the power will come, I would like to see it, he still hasnt cracked double digit MLB HR with over 700 at-bats.
RBI - serious liability - the Astros stink, he had under 40RBI last year.
SB - Serious asset
Runs - right around neutral.

To me, I give a quick numeric value to guys based on this: 0 for nuetral .5 to likely slightly above neutral, 1 definetly above neutral 2 significantly above nuetral, -.5, -1 and -2.

Altuve to me would be around a 0, which isnt bad, it just seems to me as I see some ADP, how people discuss him, that they are drafting him as he has established himself as a .300+ guy, will hit double digit HR, will steal 35+ bases and Im just not ready to value him there yet.  Its not going to matter in my league because he will be a keeper for one of the teams and at a good price, but if he were not, he would be near the top of my "call out" list because I really feel he is overvalued this year.

[cyberer]

As a rule of thumb your +/- thing may work ok, but you have to factor in position scarcity and statistical scarcity into the measurements.

For instance, a 1B who hits 7 HRs is way worse than a 2B who hits 7 HRs, but your model treats them the same.

Likewise if a guy is a plus in steals, that may be worth more than being a negative in HRs, because steals are often harder to come by, but your model has them as a +1 and a -1 cancelling out, that is probably not the case.

Hey, everyone has their way of valuing guys, I just see the guy who is probably going to lead the 2B position in steals to be pretty valuable.

Edited by cyberer, 31 January 2013 - 02:09 PM.

[FouLLine]

parrothead, on 31 January 2013 - 01:47 PM, said:

So in my league, the "average" player when it comes to winning every category would be a .280 Hitter with 21HR 80RBI 78RUNS and 12 Stolen Bases.

So when I look at players, I look at all 5 categories and in each of those categories I think:
Are they neutral (putting up right around where that average is) are they an asset or serious asset where they are likely to exceed or far exceed that average or are they a liability or serious liability in a particular category.

So when I look at Altuve:
Average - asset, potentially serious asset.
HR - liability to serious liability - I realize some think the power will come, I would like to see it, he still hasnt cracked double digit MLB HR with over 700 at-bats.
RBI - serious liability - the Astros stink, he had under 40RBI last year.
SB - Serious asset
Runs - right around neutral.

To me, I give a quick numeric value to guys based on this: 0 for nuetral .5 to likely slightly above neutral, 1 definetly above neutral 2 significantly above nuetral, -.5, -1 and -2.

Altuve to me would be around a 0, which isnt bad, it just seems to me as I see some ADP, how people discuss him, that they are drafting him as he has established himself as a .300+ guy, will hit double digit HR, will steal 35+ bases and Im just not ready to value him there yet.  Its not going to matter in my league because he will be a keeper for one of the teams and at a good price, but if he were not, he would be near the top of my "call out" list because I really feel he is overvalued this year.

Also keep in mind he's a 2B.  

Altuve at least in the rotoworld mock drafts has been going in the beginning of the 9th round 96th - 99th.  Which is fair value. I don't think you're getting a bargain there by any means but I do feel that you are at least getting what you paid for at that point.

[FouLLine]

cyberer, on 31 January 2013 - 02:09 PM, said:

As a rule of thumb your +/- thing may work ok, but you have to factor in position scarcity and statistical scarcity into the measurements.

For instance, a 1B who hits 7 HRs is way worse than a 2B who hits 7 HRs, but your model treats them the same.

Likewise if a guy is a plus in steals, that may be worth more than being a negative in HRs, because steals are often harder to come by, but your model has them as a +1 and a -1 cancelling out, that is probably not the case.

Hey, everyone has their way of valuing guys, I just see the guy who is probably going to lead the 2B position in steals to be pretty valuable.

The +/- is a good outlier to try to predict what stats you need and may have abundance of.  But I wouldn't rely on that to figure where you'll land in the roto standings.

Roto is more about balance than having the best team.  I took 2nd in one league last year it was an OPS league.  I made 4 trades, everytime trading hitters for either SPs or RPs.  I still took first in OPS, HR, and RBI by a wide margin.

I'm talking bit trades too like my Prince for their Kershaw.  Yet I wasn't balanced enough, ended up not having enough saves.

[parrothead]

Guys you are preaching to the choir about scarcity, remember Im the guy who took Tulo and Hanley at the 1st/2nd Turn in our first mock.

What Im saying is that I see him ADP around Brandon Phillips, but I think Phillips is a much better contributor across the board.  I saw Altuve taken in the 9th round of Mock 1, and Neil Walker go undrafted when essentially they are the same thing with Walker being better in Power and RBI, Altuve better in average and runs, I see him and Uggla as similar players in terms of number of categories they are strong in and then a liability in, but Altuve is consistently much higher ADP where Ive seen it and I just think people are overvalueing him.

In our Mock 1, Kyle Seager was 2B eligible, there is no way I would take Altuve over Seager, but he went 3 rounds earlier.

Marco Scutaro?  Whats his ADP, if he went head up in 5 categories against Altuve last year, his record would of been 3-1-1.

[Slatykamora]

His ADP is around Phillips? I would think Phillips would be going before him..

For 2nd base. Based off the top 20. The averages for last year was 79 Runs, 16 HR, 70 RBI 14 SB and .275 BA

So you are still pretty much on the money with him being a Liability at HR and RBI. He is 3 Cat guy.

Now you do have to remember the Variance between a good and bad HR, SB is a lot larger than Runs/RBI. For the most part agree with you though...

[cyberer]

I'd rather Altuve over any name you mentioned in your post. Phillips is close. Walker is NOT close, Seaver not sure WTF to make of that lol.

Walker thanks you for being the first person besides his mother to praise his power contribution. With walker you're trading 5 HRs for 30 SBs. You don't win leagues that way...

Edited by cyberer, 31 January 2013 - 03:51 PM.

[parrothead]

cyberer, on 31 January 2013 - 03:49 PM, said:

I'd rather Altuve over any name you mentioned in your post. Phillips is close. Walker is NOT close, Seaver not sure WTF to make of that lol.

Walker thanks you for being the first person besides his mother to praise his power contribution. With walker you're trading 5 HRs for 30 SBs. You don't win leagues that way...

Well when its twice as much as Altuve who is going in the 9th round and Walker is undrafted...the point is that I think people overvalue altuve, its not like he steals 70 bases and wins a category for you all by himself.

[parrothead]

Slatykamora, on 31 January 2013 - 03:37 PM, said:

His ADP is around Phillips? I would think Phillips would be going before him..

For 2nd base. Based off the top 20. The averages for last year was 79 Runs, 16 HR, 70 RBI 14 SB and .275 BA

So you are still pretty much on the money with him being a Liability at HR and RBI. He is 3 Cat guy.

Now you do have to remember the Variance between a good and bad HR, SB is a lot larger than Runs/RBI. For the most part agree with you though...

CBS average has Altuve 72 and Phillips 74.  I think in our Mock 1, Phillips went higher, but very close proximity to one another and I just dont consider them that close myself, which again is why my overall premise is not to bash Altuve or anything, but to simply point out I feel like overall right now the general consesnsus is one that I consider to be overvaluing him.

Edited by parrothead, 31 January 2013 - 04:08 PM.

[parrothead]

cyberer, on 31 January 2013 - 03:49 PM, said:

I'd rather Altuve over any name you mentioned in your post. Phillips is close. Walker is NOT close, Seaver not sure WTF to make of that lol.

Walker thanks you for being the first person besides his mother to praise his power contribution. With walker you're trading 5 HRs for 30 SBs. You don't win leagues that way...

But you also dont win leagues drafting guys in the top 10 rounds who put you 40 RBI short of where the average player needs to be.

[Slatykamora]

cyberer, on 31 January 2013 - 03:49 PM, said:

I'd rather Altuve over any name you mentioned in your post. Phillips is close. Walker is NOT close, Seaver not sure WTF to make of that lol.

Walker thanks you for being the first person besides his mother to praise his power contribution. With walker you're trading 5 HRs for 30 SBs. You don't win leagues that way...

Wait close to Phillips? as in? You would rather have Altuve than Phillips? but its close?  Yeah, it can depend on the makeup of the team. But Id rather have Phillips over Altuve..