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Lance Lynn 2013 OutlookLynnsanity may prove to be Lynnsane value this year


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#1 PRoSPx

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 02:31 PM

Lance Lynn was a K machine last year.  He started the season off hot and then tappered off a bit in the 2nd half before closing the season out with a bang

But there are a lot of reasons to think Lynn will be improved upon last year.

He won't turn 26 until mid May.  He had a .321 BABIP last year.  As well as he finished the season very strong with a 2.76 ERA, 10.34 K/9, an da 1.13 WHIP in September to close out the regular season.

Lynn is going extremely late in drafts post 16th round.  He even went as low as 214 in the most recent rotoworld mock draft.

Now he does come with the concern of breaking down.  As he saw an increase in 66.33 inning increase last year.  But I really don't think that will be a problem as in 2010 he threw 164 innings in The PCL.  I think this concern only increases the value you can get on him.

#2 bravesfan4life

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 04:35 PM

Yea I think people forget how good he was last year. Not sure why he doesn't get talked about a little more than he does but I guess it may be that the Cardinals have yet to even name him their 5th starter.

#3 FISH ON

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 04:53 PM

I see people taking a wait and see approach on whether he gets a starting spot or not. To me, that's a mistake, he makes a good speculative add for pennies on the dollar as of today. Later, he probably goes for market value.  
Between Miller, Rosenthal and Lynn, the Cards are going to have a very solid core of  young, high upside SP's, better to grab them now at a discount in keepers/dynasty leagues, might even reach a bit in re-drafts..
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My comments and assessments are meant for long term keeper and dynasty leagues, not for redrafts

#4 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 05:13 PM

View PostFISH ON, on 01 February 2013 - 04:53 PM, said:

I see people taking a wait and see approach on whether he gets a starting spot or not. To me, that's a mistake, he makes a good speculative add for pennies on the dollar as of today. Later, he probably goes for market value.  
Between Miller, Rosenthal and Lynn, the Cards are going to have a very solid core of  young, high upside SP's, better to grab them now at a discount in keepers/dynasty leagues, might even reach a bit in re-drafts..

Not to mention Carlos Martinez. If I were Mozeliak, I'd be shopping one or two of them around along with Jaime Garcia.
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#5 My Dinner With Andre

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 05:23 PM

SwStrk% is a little low at 9.8%, but yea, he should provide good value for where he's being drafted.

#6 PepperPot

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 01:59 AM

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 03 February 2013 - 05:23 PM, said:

SwStrk% is a little low at 9.8%, but yea, he should provide good value for where he's being drafted.

To go along with his low swing strike rate...his split stats are awful.

http://www.fangraphs...n=2012#advanced

I think his second half struggle might have something to do with teams putting a few more lefties in the lineup when he pitches (though I'm not positive on this, I did not go back and look).

He was better in 2011, though it was a small sample.

Here are his minor league split stats

http://mlsplits.driv...ayerinfo/458681
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
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P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#7 Slatykamora

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 09:33 AM

View PostPepperPot, on 04 February 2013 - 01:59 AM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 03 February 2013 - 05:23 PM, said:

SwStrk% is a little low at 9.8%, but yea, he should provide good value for where he's being drafted.

To go along with his low swing strike rate...his split stats are awful.

http://www.fangraphs...n=2012#advanced

I think his second half struggle might have something to do with teams putting a few more lefties in the lineup when he pitches (though I'm not positive on this, I did not go back and look).

He was better in 2011, though it was a small sample.

Here are his minor league split stats

http://mlsplits.driv...ayerinfo/458681

Not really..If you at his BABIP splits. He was .313 vs lefties and .328 vs Righties..

Yet his first Half babip was .298 and went up to .358.  I don't think that had anything to do with loading up on lefties. As his Strikeout and Walk rates  didn't move much from the first half to 2nd half... (a slight uptick in walk-rate)

Edited by Slatykamora, 04 February 2013 - 09:34 AM.


#8 Travis Burten

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:00 AM

Lefties have a .384 OBP with a 53/69 K/BB

Righties have a .271 OBP with a 111/11 K/BB


Managers are going to load up their lineups with LH's just for Lynn.

Edited by Travis Burten, 04 February 2013 - 10:02 AM.


#9 FouLLine

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:56 AM

View PostSlatykamora, on 04 February 2013 - 09:33 AM, said:

View PostPepperPot, on 04 February 2013 - 01:59 AM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 03 February 2013 - 05:23 PM, said:

SwStrk% is a little low at 9.8%, but yea, he should provide good value for where he's being drafted.

To go along with his low swing strike rate...his split stats are awful.

http://www.fangraphs...n=2012#advanced

I think his second half struggle might have something to do with teams putting a few more lefties in the lineup when he pitches (though I'm not positive on this, I did not go back and look).

He was better in 2011, though it was a small sample.

Here are his minor league split stats

http://mlsplits.driv...ayerinfo/458681

Not really..If you at his BABIP splits. He was .313 vs lefties and .328 vs Righties..

Yet his first Half babip was .298 and went up to .358.  I don't think that had anything to do with loading up on lefties. As his Strikeout and Walk rates  didn't move much from the first half to 2nd half... (a slight uptick in walk-rate)
Im sure loading up on lefties didn't help, but either way a .358 BABIP for a pitcher in a half is a pretty unlucky half.

#10 PepperPot

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 11:45 AM

View PostFouLLine, on 04 February 2013 - 10:56 AM, said:

View PostSlatykamora, on 04 February 2013 - 09:33 AM, said:

View PostPepperPot, on 04 February 2013 - 01:59 AM, said:

View PostMy Dinner With Andre, on 03 February 2013 - 05:23 PM, said:

SwStrk% is a little low at 9.8%, but yea, he should provide good value for where he's being drafted.

To go along with his low swing strike rate...his split stats are awful.

http://www.fangraphs...n=2012#advanced

I think his second half struggle might have something to do with teams putting a few more lefties in the lineup when he pitches (though I'm not positive on this, I did not go back and look).

He was better in 2011, though it was a small sample.

Here are his minor league split stats

http://mlsplits.driv...ayerinfo/458681

Not really..If you at his BABIP splits. He was .313 vs lefties and .328 vs Righties..

Yet his first Half babip was .298 and went up to .358.  I don't think that had anything to do with loading up on lefties. As his Strikeout and Walk rates  didn't move much from the first half to 2nd half... (a slight uptick in walk-rate)
Im sure loading up on lefties didn't help, but either way a .358 BABIP for a pitcher in a half is a pretty unlucky half.

It is pretty unlucky, I agree.  And if teams did not load on lefties against him last year, teams are certainly going to take a look at his split stats and it could be a trend that starts this year.  Even with that said, Lynn is still a good value for where he is being drafted.
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#11 Travis Burten

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 12:30 PM

I'm not big on him this year...I see a mid-4's ERA and a WHIP around 1.35....he'll still strike some guys out but I don't see him accumulating too many K's, don't think he'll throw enough innings for it.

#12 lassetjus

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 02:42 AM

View PostPRoSPx, on 01 February 2013 - 02:31 PM, said:

Lance Lynn was a K machine last year.  He started the season off hot and then tappered off a bit in the 2nd half before closing the season out with a bang

But there are a lot of reasons to think Lynn will be improved upon last year.

He won't turn 26 until mid May.  He had a .321 BABIP last year.  As well as he finished the season very strong with a 2.76 ERA, 10.34 K/9, an da 1.13 WHIP in September to close out the regular season.

Lynn is going extremely late in drafts post 16th round.  He even went as low as 214 in the most recent rotoworld mock draft.

Now he does come with the concern of breaking down.  As he saw an increase in 66.33 inning increase last year.  But I really don't think that will be a problem as in 2010 he threw 164 innings in The PCL.  I think this concern only increases the value you can get on him.

Shhhh.... I am targeting him late. I love how he tired in August, rested up, then dominated in September. Hopefully that August left a bad taste in people's mouths. Where else can you get 200K potential past the 16th round?
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#13 Stanford410

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 10:50 PM

Lance Lynn said he has arrived at the Cardinals' spring training complex about 20 pounds lighter than he was in camp last year.
Lynn also gained weight during the season, so he's lost more than 20 pounds overall. The Cards asked the right-hander to get in better shape over the winter, and it's clear he took the advice to heart. "He's going to be much more athletic, definitely it's going to help him out with his stamina and in all phases of his game," pitching coach Derek Lilliquist said. Lynn's spot in the rotation was virtually guaranteed after Chris Carpenter's injury. Feb 8 - 12:26 PM

Source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch
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#14 papasmurf

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:20 AM

CBS Sports lists him as 250... now I dunno if that's beginning 2012 weight or what. Losing 40lbs is a lot... but if it means he's still around 215 that is not horrible

How is his velocity in the spring?

#15 MrMartyBarrett

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 09:47 AM

All of this lost weight talk adds up to a player who gets it.  He sees the unbelivable young talent behind him, and he wants to ensure he has a roster spot.  That may seem like a simple thing, but far too many athletes get comfortable where they are.  He obviously has the desire to do this the right way, and I find it hard not to root for players like that. I'm buying at his current price.

#16 jackmurphy

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Posted 02 March 2013 - 10:12 AM

Like everyone said above, his splits are pretty bad. It will be interesting to see if he improves against lefties this year. I think he's worth drafting as one of your last starters - and after the first month or two see if he is improving against lefties. If he does, he will be a steal. If he doesn't you need to pick and choose his starts I think.
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#17 umphrey

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Posted 07 March 2013 - 09:52 PM

Not really sure why this guy is getting drafted so late, he had a bad June and a bad August, but his overall stats for the year were a lot better than many guys going before him, and Lynn is young on a team that will get him wins and a good ball park.

#18 jr11890

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 11:15 AM

This guy is one of the most interesting pitchers this year. I think he could go either way
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#19 ludawg23

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 01:55 PM

Striking out guys in ST but getting lit up too.  Hoping we don't wish he stayed fat this season if he turns out to be a bust
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#20 Caelum

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Posted 28 March 2013 - 02:02 PM

Nice game against the Marlins today. Throwing strikes, announcers said his slider looks much sharper. 6 ip, 0 er, 2h, 5K. Showed the radar gun on the scoreboard for one fastball and it showed 93. Encouraging.
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SS: H. Ramirez
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MI: E. Cabrera
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U: Ortiz
SP: Bumgarner, Bailey, Minor, Salazar, Masterson, Ubaldo
RP: Perkins, Balfour, Parnell
Bench bats: Rasmus, R. Davis
Bench arms: Buchholz, Y. Ventura, Lackey, T. Walker




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