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Buster Posey 2013 Outlook


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#1 Stanford410

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 04:41 PM

2012 NL MVP, 2012 NL Batting Champion, 2012 Silver Slugger, 2012 Hank Aaron Award, 2012 Comeback Player of the Year, 2 Time World Series Champion, 2012 All Star, 2010 Rookie of the Year and many other awards in the minors.

Rookie year: .305, 18 hr, 67 rbi. .862 ops
2012 season: .336, 24 hr, 103 rbi .957 ops

I may be a bit biased in saying this but many will agree in saying he is the best catcher around right now. He is only improving and trying to get better every season. He had a 172 OPS+ last season ( on base+slugging) which is second most in a season to only Mike Piazza. Hitting in the heart of the lineup behind a healthy Pablo Sandoval and in front of Hunter Pence provides great protection. Many may also be surprised to see him taken in the top 15, or maybe even top 10. But at a position which is pretty shallow on great talent, he is the best and getting better which leads to higher adp(average draft position)

Anyone have any projections or opinions?

Im thinking around .318/29 hr/105 rbi/ .970+ ops

Edited by Stanford410, 02 February 2013 - 04:42 PM.

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#2 Brewcrewfan

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 05:01 PM

Should be a great hitter for a long time. Being conservative=75-20-95-.300. Ceiling= 85-30-115-.325. So reasonable projection is 80-25-105-.315

#3 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 05:02 PM

The Rays must really be kicking themselves for drafting Tim Beckham over him.

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#4 lightning1233

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 06:40 PM

His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season

#5 Neymar

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 07:35 PM

He's going last 1st/early 2nd. Very little chance he returns that type of value. No thank you.

#6 Reverse Cowgill

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 07:38 PM

His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming
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#7 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 12:24 AM

So say we're talking 25 man roster (one C only needed, but you'd want to carry a backup probably anyway), 14-team mixed auction.... how much does a guy like Posey go until he is at that point where you don't bid anymore? Is he a $30 guy, or closer to $35?

I'm cheap on catchers every year and it never hurts me.... waiting on a catcher can yield guys like AJ from last season, the AJ on the Dodgers, and others.... so I usually wait. But I kind of like Posey. I just never invest money in catchers on draft day.


I think 25 is more than doable for him. .300 is sustainable. To me, he is Brian McCann when he was at his offensive best, maybe a little better though. Can any SF fans tell me how his D looks since his return? I know he plays 1B some too, and it would be nice to know if he's the type who could get 500 AB. That can be very valuable from a C in fantasy because it basically means you need to only carry one catcher unless you REALLY want to have it covered all of the time in daily lineups...but with 25-man rosters, I'd rather horse than two guys splitting time. Still, each works I think. Curious how much Posey is slated to potentially play first now that it looks like Belt is finally getting the job?.... Giants fans know?
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#8 GreenGold74

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 03:17 AM

First of all I think he is an incredible talent at a prime age to put up 4-5 amazing seasons. I think like Victor Martinez its not just his tremendous hitting talent that makes him so drool worthy but that he will play a number of games at 1B when he is not catching. Catchers who can play 140-150 games with his kind of talent sort of erases the stigma about reaching for a catcher in early rounds. While there are guys like Salvador, Wieters, Molina and a handful of other catchers poised for nice seasons at much lower ADP they don't profile to playing the number of raw games Posey will. Posey is the complete package and he's an invaluable dynasty catcher. Unlike Mauer his power is legit to go along with his batting eye.

All that said I'd still rather in redraft leagues or new dynasty leagues want the franchise MI or 5 tool OF and if you have guys like Adam Jones, Reyes, Heyward or a David Price quality SP I'd take those players and draft one of those other catchers later on. But Posey is a special talent and while its possible they play Belt more at 1B and Posey might not reach 145 games he's still the best catcher in the game.

#9 parrothead

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 05:40 PM

2012 NL MVP, 2012 NL Batting Champion, 2012 Silver Slugger, 2012 Hank Aaron Award, 2012 Comeback Player of the Year, 2 Time World Series Champion, 2012 All Star, 2010 Rookie of the Year and many other awards in the minors.

Rookie year: .305, 18 hr, 67 rbi. .862 ops
2012 season: .336, 24 hr, 103 rbi .957 ops

I may be a bit biased in saying this but many will agree in saying he is the best catcher around right now. He is only improving and trying to get better every season. He had a 172 OPS+ last season ( on base+slugging) which is second most in a season to only Mike Piazza. Hitting in the heart of the lineup behind a healthy Pablo Sandoval and in front of Hunter Pence provides great protection. Many may also be surprised to see him taken in the top 15, or maybe even top 10. But at a position which is pretty shallow on great talent, he is the best and getting better which leads to higher adp(average draft position)

Anyone have any projections or opinions?

Im thinking around .318/29 hr/105 rbi/ .970+ ops

I like Posey, I own him for cheap in my auction keeper league for another couple years and I like the fact that he does play some 1B, will likely DH in American parks, etc. He will be among the league leaders in games played and at bats out of the C slot which means he should get more runs/rbi and stats that accumulate or tend to with the more playing time you get.

The Red Flags for me:
1. The table setters - this team had a magical run last year with Marco Scutaro and Angel Pagan. I know Pagan's seemingly improved and Scutaro is steady, but reality is that these are not great players and we know the bottom of their line up stinks, so there could be a lack of RBI opportunities if these guys give their normal career stats or have a down year.

2. Protection - Pence is a mystery, he was way out of sorts the last two months of last year and into the post-season - he along with Belt will have to give Posey some protection to see pitches in RBI opps and score runs when he is on base.

I love Posey and at the value I have him at he is a no-brainer, but the more I look at this line up both for RBI and Runs scored, I could see a drop off that would make him a disappointment to some who draft him really high or pay big auction $$ for him.
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#10 cyberer

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 07:19 PM

Scutaro leads all of baseball in recent memory in contact %, and pagan is decent. Should be guys on base. The arguments against posey have nothing to do with lineup IMO

Edited by cyberer, 04 February 2013 - 07:19 PM.

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#11 Stanford410

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:31 PM


His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming

Actually posey hit .289 with 10 hr and 43 rbi with melk man up to the all star break and hit .385 with 14 hr and 60 rbi without the melkman. With a healthy panda and hopefully a non slumping Pence hitting behind him, i dont see why he cant increase production.
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#12 Stanford410

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:39 PM

So say we're talking 25 man roster (one C only needed, but you'd want to carry a backup probably anyway), 14-team mixed auction.... how much does a guy like Posey go until he is at that point where you don't bid anymore? Is he a $30 guy, or closer to $35?

I'm cheap on catchers every year and it never hurts me.... waiting on a catcher can yield guys like AJ from last season, the AJ on the Dodgers, and others.... so I usually wait. But I kind of like Posey. I just never invest money in catchers on draft day.


I think 25 is more than doable for him. .300 is sustainable. To me, he is Brian McCann when he was at his offensive best, maybe a little better though. Can any SF fans tell me how his D looks since his return? I know he plays 1B some too, and it would be nice to know if he's the type who could get 500 AB. That can be very valuable from a C in fantasy because it basically means you need to only carry one catcher unless you REALLY want to have it covered all of the time in daily lineups...but with 25-man rosters, I'd rather horse than two guys splitting time. Still, each works I think. Curious how much Posey is slated to potentially play first now that it looks like Belt is finally getting the job?.... Giants fans know?

well he had 530 ab's last season so 500 ab should be fine to reach. he played 114 at catcher and 29 at first base last season. (=3 dh =148 games) I would probably say from what ive seen on the Giants off season shows that it would be closer to project 125 at catcher and maybe 20 at first base(3/4 dh). They played him at first base a lot early on to make sure to go easy on the stress of the ankle but he said it feels great so the 1b time will diminish, but he will still get 1b eligibility.
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#13 parrothead

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Posted 04 February 2013 - 10:44 PM


So say we're talking 25 man roster (one C only needed, but you'd want to carry a backup probably anyway), 14-team mixed auction.... how much does a guy like Posey go until he is at that point where you don't bid anymore? Is he a $30 guy, or closer to $35?

I'm cheap on catchers every year and it never hurts me.... waiting on a catcher can yield guys like AJ from last season, the AJ on the Dodgers, and others.... so I usually wait. But I kind of like Posey. I just never invest money in catchers on draft day.


I think 25 is more than doable for him. .300 is sustainable. To me, he is Brian McCann when he was at his offensive best, maybe a little better though. Can any SF fans tell me how his D looks since his return? I know he plays 1B some too, and it would be nice to know if he's the type who could get 500 AB. That can be very valuable from a C in fantasy because it basically means you need to only carry one catcher unless you REALLY want to have it covered all of the time in daily lineups...but with 25-man rosters, I'd rather horse than two guys splitting time. Still, each works I think. Curious how much Posey is slated to potentially play first now that it looks like Belt is finally getting the job?.... Giants fans know?

well he had 530 ab's last season so 500 ab should be fine to reach. he played 114 at catcher and 29 at first base last season. (=3 dh =148 games) I would probably say from what ive seen on the Giants off season shows that it would be closer to project 125 at catcher and maybe 20 at first base(3/4 dh). They played him at first base a lot early on to make sure to go easy on the stress of the ankle but he said it feels great so the 1b time will diminish, but he will still get 1b eligibility.

He could also play 1B some if the whole Zito/Lincecum dont like throwing to Posey thing creeps up again.
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#14 The Ringer

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:32 AM

He won't carry a .368 BABIP again this season. It was one of the highest in the league and not something you see from a guy that doesn't have a whole lot of speed. I expect that average to regress. He'll still be a .300-.310 guy, but .336 won't happen again.

The power is legit, but that stadium totally kills his HR numbers. His beautiful inside out swing is perfect for going the other way, but for him, that means that big triples alley or toward that brick wall. It is almost impossible to hit the ball out the other way for a right hander in that stadium. I think Posey has only done it once in career there. If he played in a lesser stadium that rewarded opposite field power like Milwaukee, Cincy, Yankee stadium, or Colorado, he would be a legitimate 40 homer guy. A lot of his home runs on the road are of the opposite field variety. He plays in the worst stadium he can possible play in for his swing and power numbers. He still gets a ton of hits there as there is a lot of ground in that outfield, but it totally kills the power. He has twice as many home runs on the road in his early career than at home. If he is only going to hit 7-8 homers at home, it will make it very tough for him to take that next step up to 30 bombs and it pretty much guarantees that he will likely remain in the low 20's.

As much as I love Buster Posey, he will be hard pressed to give a first or even a second round return this year, even at a thin position like catcher.

#15 The Ringer

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:45 AM



His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming

Actually posey hit .289 with 10 hr and 43 rbi with melk man up to the all star break and hit .385 with 14 hr and 60 rbi without the melkman. With a healthy panda and hopefully a non slumping Pence hitting behind him, i dont see why he cant increase production.


It would probably be impossible for him to duplicate that second half. It was historic for a catcher for multiple reasons. He was insanely hot and carried something like a .420 batting average in balls in play. EVERYTHING found a hole for him. These are the things that tend to happen in an MVP type of season. To expect him to put up those same numbers for an extended stretch would be asking an awful lot when the metrics suggest they were a tad inflated.

That stretch also coincided with Marco Scutaro hitting .362 with a .386 OBP in his 61 games with the Giants and a pretty hot stretch from Pagan. Also a stretch that will be almost impossible to duplicate. That meant that somebody was pretty much always on base and there was no place to put Posey, so teams didn't pitch around him. I'm not sure we can count on that 60 RBI production post-Melkman as legitimate. Those guys won't be on base at the same rates they displayed over that stretch just due to the law of averages. With an open base, pitchers will pitch around Posey a little bit more often and they may do that anyway unless Hunter Pence can prove that he isn't broken.

He should hit around .300. He should hit 20-25 HRs. His first half looked more in line with what he produced over his previous rookie season, but that second half was just a player in the zone. It also happened to be with a ton of runners on base. I'd love to see it again, but I wouldn't count on it when drafting him for my fantasy squad.

#16 jb_power

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:36 AM

Posey's 2nd half last season wasn't quite historically unique for a catcher. You only need to go back to 2011 and Mike Napoli's 2nd half.

Napoli, a career .259 hitter had a 2nd half line of .383, 18 HR and 42 RBI with an OPS of 1.171

#17 cyberer

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:57 AM

Posey's 2nd half last season wasn't quite historically unique for a catcher. You only need to go back to 2011 and Mike Napoli's 2nd half.

Napoli, a career .259 hitter had a 2nd half line of .383, 18 HR and 42 RBI with an OPS of 1.171


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#18 Stanford410

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 06:36 PM




His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming

Actually posey hit .289 with 10 hr and 43 rbi with melk man up to the all star break and hit .385 with 14 hr and 60 rbi without the melkman. With a healthy panda and hopefully a non slumping Pence hitting behind him, i dont see why he cant increase production.


It would probably be impossible for him to duplicate that second half. It was historic for a catcher for multiple reasons. He was insanely hot and carried something like a .420 batting average in balls in play. EVERYTHING found a hole for him. These are the things that tend to happen in an MVP type of season. To expect him to put up those same numbers for an extended stretch would be asking an awful lot when the metrics suggest they were a tad inflated.

That stretch also coincided with Marco Scutaro hitting .362 with a .386 OBP in his 61 games with the Giants and a pretty hot stretch from Pagan. Also a stretch that will be almost impossible to duplicate. That meant that somebody was pretty much always on base and there was no place to put Posey, so teams didn't pitch around him. I'm not sure we can count on that 60 RBI production post-Melkman as legitimate. Those guys won't be on base at the same rates they displayed over that stretch just due to the law of averages. With an open base, pitchers will pitch around Posey a little bit more often and they may do that anyway unless Hunter Pence can prove that he isn't broken.

He should hit around .300. He should hit 20-25 HRs. His first half looked more in line with what he produced over his previous rookie season, but that second half was just a player in the zone. It also happened to be with a ton of runners on base. I'd love to see it again, but I wouldn't count on it when drafting him for my fantasy squad.

thing is i wasnt saying he can replicate that second half, the point i was proving is that he had better stats without melky cabrera on the team because the guy i quoted said it was to Melky's success.
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#19 parrothead

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 01:56 PM




His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming

Actually posey hit .289 with 10 hr and 43 rbi with melk man up to the all star break and hit .385 with 14 hr and 60 rbi without the melkman. With a healthy panda and hopefully a non slumping Pence hitting behind him, i dont see why he cant increase production.


It would probably be impossible for him to duplicate that second half. It was historic for a catcher for multiple reasons. He was insanely hot and carried something like a .420 batting average in balls in play. EVERYTHING found a hole for him. These are the things that tend to happen in an MVP type of season. To expect him to put up those same numbers for an extended stretch would be asking an awful lot when the metrics suggest they were a tad inflated.

That stretch also coincided with Marco Scutaro hitting .362 with a .386 OBP in his 61 games with the Giants and a pretty hot stretch from Pagan. Also a stretch that will be almost impossible to duplicate. That meant that somebody was pretty much always on base and there was no place to put Posey, so teams didn't pitch around him. I'm not sure we can count on that 60 RBI production post-Melkman as legitimate. Those guys won't be on base at the same rates they displayed over that stretch just due to the law of averages. With an open base, pitchers will pitch around Posey a little bit more often and they may do that anyway unless Hunter Pence can prove that he isn't broken.

He should hit around .300. He should hit 20-25 HRs. His first half looked more in line with what he produced over his previous rookie season, but that second half was just a player in the zone. It also happened to be with a ton of runners on base. I'd love to see it again, but I wouldn't count on it when drafting him for my fantasy squad.

I mentioned this in my post too, the table setters of Scutaro and Pagan are pretty weak.
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#20 klove42

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 02:10 PM





His production should increase with a healthy Panda all season


1) You can't guarantee a healthy Panda
2) There won't be the Melk-man batting .450

I think you're dreaming

Actually posey hit .289 with 10 hr and 43 rbi with melk man up to the all star break and hit .385 with 14 hr and 60 rbi without the melkman. With a healthy panda and hopefully a non slumping Pence hitting behind him, i dont see why he cant increase production.


It would probably be impossible for him to duplicate that second half. It was historic for a catcher for multiple reasons. He was insanely hot and carried something like a .420 batting average in balls in play. EVERYTHING found a hole for him. These are the things that tend to happen in an MVP type of season. To expect him to put up those same numbers for an extended stretch would be asking an awful lot when the metrics suggest they were a tad inflated.

That stretch also coincided with Marco Scutaro hitting .362 with a .386 OBP in his 61 games with the Giants and a pretty hot stretch from Pagan. Also a stretch that will be almost impossible to duplicate. That meant that somebody was pretty much always on base and there was no place to put Posey, so teams didn't pitch around him. I'm not sure we can count on that 60 RBI production post-Melkman as legitimate. Those guys won't be on base at the same rates they displayed over that stretch just due to the law of averages. With an open base, pitchers will pitch around Posey a little bit more often and they may do that anyway unless Hunter Pence can prove that he isn't broken.

He should hit around .300. He should hit 20-25 HRs. His first half looked more in line with what he produced over his previous rookie season, but that second half was just a player in the zone. It also happened to be with a ton of runners on base. I'd love to see it again, but I wouldn't count on it when drafting him for my fantasy squad.

I mentioned this in my post too, the table setters of Scutaro and Pagan are pretty weak.


I agree with you both here. I loved Posey last year and he really carried my team when I needed him, but I would not touch him in the first round and probaly not the second. I expect him to still hit 300 20 and at least 75 which is great for a C, but still not great for a first round pick even with position scarcity.
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