4 replies to this topic

[LyondellBasell]

Going to the NL from the AL East. He'll be 23 in April.

Sabermetrics guys hate him and fantasy owners have had no use for him b/c he never strikes people out. 3.8 k/9 is downright humiliating.

But when you consider how bad that is, it's an achievement he even stayed in the majors and logged 187 innings in the AL.

The reason I still have hope for him is that his stuff is filthy. His fastball is mid-90s and has crazy life down in the zone. The issue is his slider. If he can get that over for strikes, we're looking at something special. I still believe.

Edited by LyondellBasell, 02 February 2013 - 06:29 PM.

[Nick Mitchell]

I think he's worth a late, late pick in mixed 14-team or NL-only 10-12 team leagues... or something of a $1 gamble.

I don't think he will strike out many more batters out of nowhere next season, if going from AL East to NL East. His HR rate should improve on behalf of pitching half of his games in Miami vs. Toronto alone (not to mention not facing Boston, New York, Tampa, and Baltimore... who is the only team that had he really had much success versus at all actually).

Personally, in the one league I know I will be in for sure, he is waiver fodder in my eyes and unless he gets hot and can maintain it, I wouldn't hold him beyond a start (and he if gets hot out of the start, someone will swoop him up if he hasn't been drafted for sure, anyway). As of now, he's not on my list of players I won't want to draft unless I'm desperate for a pitcher, and I mean very desperate. My main league is 14-teams and mixed leagues. 100$ FAAB and a $200-$260 draft day budget for 25 players and 2 DL slots. I forget which we are going with this year in the budget... somewhere from $200-$260 I think. It is very competitive and fun to play in, but even as savvy as (most) of the GMs in the league who are mainstays can be, I don't think Alverez will be someone I would draft. Perhaps a nice stream vs. some of the bottom feeder teams, or in starts in stadiums like Petco maybe... but until he proves he can strike people out with this nasty stuff everyone is talking about that he hasn't been able to make anything of, he is no more than Daniel Cabrera... a Daniel Cabrera that can throw strikes, that is.

And on the Marlins, he won't win many games either. Less chance to compile even 10 wins than he would have had bouncing up and down from AAA or between the pen with a team like TOR that should score a lot and be playing catchup.... MIA is going to be bad. There's an article, if I can find it.. one sec..

Here it is. It mentions some of what I brought up but goes into better detail.anyway, here it is:
http://www.fangraphs...varez-to-shine/

Again, if that isn't allowed, please just edit the link out... thanks. Also, title is a bit misleading.

Edited by The Harsh, 04 February 2013 - 09:59 AM.
Links relevant to the discussion at hand are fine!

[sasnumberonefan]

I remember watching this guy in a couple starts in person last year, and from what I see, he has some filthy stuff but has yet to learn how to "pitch". Has a great heater with great movement late and down in the zone. His downfall is that more often it seems like once he gets in a punch out situation, he either throws an absolute meatball right down the pipe, or nibbles. If he can work on that, he could return some decent value in deeper leagues.

[LyondellBasell]

look who got 7ks in 5 innings today! anyone see him this spring? is the breaking ball improved?

[LyondellBasell]

well, two of the ks were dan haren .... tough to read the stuff from this low spring training camera angle and now radar gun, but he got laroche a couple times on what looks to be off speed with a late break

http://mlb.mlb.com/v...872421&c_id=mlb