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Henderson Alvarez 2013 Outlook


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26 replies to this topic

#1 LyondellBasell

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 06:28 PM

Going to the NL from the AL East. He'll be 23 in April.

Sabermetrics guys hate him and fantasy owners have had no use for him b/c he never strikes people out. 3.8 k/9 is downright humiliating.

But when you consider how bad that is, it's an achievement he even stayed in the majors and logged 187 innings in the AL.

The reason I still have hope for him is that his stuff is filthy. His fastball is mid-90s and has crazy life down in the zone. The issue is his slider. If he can get that over for strikes, we're looking at something special. I still believe.

Edited by LyondellBasell, 02 February 2013 - 06:29 PM.

12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Bautista
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Cespedes, Rajai, Soler, Heyward
Utl/ Morales
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman, Greene
RP/ Ross,
Stroman, Carrasco, Miley


Championships: 4 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#2 Nick Mitchell

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 11:14 PM

I think he's worth a late, late pick in mixed 14-team or NL-only 10-12 team leagues... or something of a $1 gamble.

I don't think he will strike out many more batters out of nowhere next season, if going from AL East to NL East. His HR rate should improve on behalf of pitching half of his games in Miami vs. Toronto alone (not to mention not facing Boston, New York, Tampa, and Baltimore... who is the only team that had he really had much success versus at all actually).

Personally, in the one league I know I will be in for sure, he is waiver fodder in my eyes and unless he gets hot and can maintain it, I wouldn't hold him beyond a start (and he if gets hot out of the start, someone will swoop him up if he hasn't been drafted for sure, anyway). As of now, he's not on my list of players I won't want to draft unless I'm desperate for a pitcher, and I mean very desperate. My main league is 14-teams and mixed leagues. 100$ FAAB and a $200-$260 draft day budget for 25 players and 2 DL slots. I forget which we are going with this year in the budget... somewhere from $200-$260 I think. It is very competitive and fun to play in, but even as savvy as (most) of the GMs in the league who are mainstays can be, I don't think Alverez will be someone I would draft. Perhaps a nice stream vs. some of the bottom feeder teams, or in starts in stadiums like Petco maybe... but until he proves he can strike people out with this nasty stuff everyone is talking about that he hasn't been able to make anything of, he is no more than Daniel Cabrera... a Daniel Cabrera that can throw strikes, that is.

And on the Marlins, he won't win many games either. Less chance to compile even 10 wins than he would have had bouncing up and down from AAA or between the pen with a team like TOR that should score a lot and be playing catchup.... MIA is going to be bad. There's an article, if I can find it.. one sec..

Here it is. It mentions some of what I brought up but goes into better detail.anyway, here it is:
http://www.fangraphs...varez-to-shine/

Again, if that isn't allowed, please just edit the link out... thanks. Also, title is a bit misleading.

Edited by The Harsh, 04 February 2013 - 09:59 AM.
Links relevant to the discussion at hand are fine!

let your members encourage my suicide. besides, I kinda wanna _

#3 sasnumberonefan

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Posted 20 March 2013 - 08:40 PM

I remember watching this guy in a couple starts in person last year, and from what I see, he has some filthy stuff but has yet to learn how to "pitch". Has a great heater with great movement late and down in the zone. His downfall is that more often it seems like once he gets in a punch out situation, he either throws an absolute meatball right down the pipe, or nibbles. If he can work on that, he could return some decent value in deeper leagues.
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#4 LyondellBasell

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:32 PM

look who got 7ks in 5 innings today! anyone see him this spring? is the breaking ball improved?
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Bautista
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Cespedes, Rajai, Soler, Heyward
Utl/ Morales
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman, Greene
RP/ Ross,
Stroman, Carrasco, Miley


Championships: 4 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#5 LyondellBasell

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 06:35 PM

well, two of the ks were dan haren .... tough to read the stuff from this low spring training camera angle and now radar gun, but he got laroche a couple times on what looks to be off speed with a late break

http://mlb.mlb.com/v...872421&c_id=mlb
12 Team H2H Categories. Play two teams per week. Three keepers.
Avg, OPS, HR, RBI, R, SB * W, K, ERA, WHIP, Sv

C/ Santana
IB/ Pujols
3B/ Encarnacion
CI/ Bautista
2B/ Gyorko
SS/
Simmons
MI/ Wong
4 OF/ Cespedes, Rajai, Soler, Heyward
Utl/ Morales
SP/ Felix, Teheran, Sale,
Archer, Latos, Tillman, Greene
RP/ Ross,
Stroman, Carrasco, Miley


Championships: 4 Baseball, 1 Football, 1 Basketball

#6 neverrelaxed

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Posted 30 June 2013 - 02:08 PM

Anything to see here? Looks like he's starting on Wednesday.
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C  Jonathan Lucroy
1B  Jose Abreu
2B  Robinson Cano
3B  Conor Gillaspie
SS  Jose Reyes
OF  Yasiel Puig / Giancarlo Stanton / Matt Kemp
UTIL  Jedd Gyorko / Arismendy Alcantara / Yangervis Solarte

SP  Adam Wainwright / Alex Cobb / Tanner Roark / Cliff Lee / Dallas Keuchel / Alex Wood / Henderson Alvarez / Francisco Liriano / Jimmy Nelson / Jarred Cosart

RP  Sean Doolittle / Mark Melancon

DL  Michael Pineda

#7 crazybob60

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 09:43 AM

Has done fairly decent the last few starts and has gone deep into games. Doesn't get as many K's as I would prefer, but still ok. You all think he keeps this up the rest of the way? Personally, I think he may be pitching a tad over his head due to pitching in Marlins park, but who knows. Any other thoughts?
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Can Roster 10 SP's, Max 2 SP pickups per week

C: Travis d'Arnaud
1B: Freddie Freeman
2B: Brandon Phillips
SS: Jordy Mercer
3B: David Wright
IF: Mark Teixeira
OF: Giancarlo Stanton, Melky Cabrera, Josh Hamilton, Christian Yelich
DH: Mike Napoli, Martin Prado
BN: Derek Jeter
DL: Troy Tulowitzki

SP: Clayton Kershaw, Travis Wood, Aaron Harang, Tim Hudson, AJ Burnett, Wei-Yin Chen, Jeremy Hellickson, Alfredo Simon, Ricky Nolasco, T.J. House
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Huston Street, Santiago Casilla
DL: Yu Darvish

#8 2ndCitySox

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Posted 10 August 2013 - 09:48 AM

I think he's a time bomb
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C- Carlton Fisk
1B- Frank Thomas
2B- Ryne Sandberg
SS- Ozzie Smith
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CF- Rickey
LF- Kirk Gibson
RF- Chili Davis
DH- Eddie Murray

SP- Nolan Ryan
SP- Orel Herschiser
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RP- Eck

#9 daeys

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 11:27 AM

Looks like he'll miss the two ATL series. May be a ROS sleeper pick...
Currently 3rd place in a 12 Team Head to head re-draft league
5x5 (R, AVG, HR, RBI, Steals) (W, K, ERA, WHIP, Saves)

C Jason Castro
1B Freddie Freeman
2B Jason Kipnis
3B Martin Prado
SS Hanley Ramirez
OF Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Pence, Alex Gordon
Util Eric Hosmer, Jedd Gyorko
BN Adam Eaton

SP Julio Teheran, Jordan Zimmermann, Kris Medlen, Mat Latos, Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Alex Cobb, Dillon Gee, Sonny Gray

RP Edward Mujica, Jonathan Papelbon, Rex Brothers

#10 Choo on Wieters

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Posted 20 August 2013 - 11:39 AM

Looks like he'll miss the two ATL series. May be a ROS sleeper pick...


Dodgers thursday and @Nationals next week. If all holds static, he should be good through September, until the final series of the year where he is slated to face the Tigers.

Otherwise, he should line up against the Cubs, Phillies twice consecutively, Mets, and a game vs. the Nationals thrown in there. There are 4 positive matchups to keep an eye on.
12 team H2H 6X6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, Avg, OPS.-- W, L, K, Sv, ERA, WHIP)

Where's Oswaldo- 2-6-0 - 11th place

C- Devin Mesoraco
1B- Edwin Encarnacion
2B- Howie Kendrick
3B- Ryan Zimmerman
SS- JJ Hardy
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2B/SS- Neil Walker
OF- J. Hamilton, B. Hamilton, J. Jones, R. Davis, N. Markakis
Util- Oswaldo Arcia
Bench- Joey Votto(DL15), Matt Adams(DL15), C. Carter
SP-Price, Liriano, Roark, Ventura, Richards, Alvarez
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DL- W. Myers(DL15)

#11 PPolanco

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 10:10 AM

@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#12 Beakman

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:33 AM

@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?


Washington is 9-1 over their last ten games, there's no one hotter in MLB. Strasburg is pitching for the Nats as well. I don't think it's worth the risk if you're in a tight race.

#13 PPolanco

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Posted 18 September 2013 - 11:37 PM


@Washington tomorrow, much better numbers on the road this season (3.18, 1.01); small sample size of course but shows he's not purely a product of Marlin Park.

Badly need ERA and WHIP. Anyone else feeling a spot-start?


Washington is 9-1 over their last ten games, there's no one hotter in MLB. Strasburg is pitching for the Nats as well. I don't think it's worth the risk if you're in a tight race.


Don't need a W so the opposing pitcher couldn't matter less to me. I don't think anyone rosters Alvarez (or any Marlins pitcher) expecting a win.

That said, the total for the game is 7 and I'm in desperate need of some clean innings so I'm giving him a chance. The fact that I have no other pitchers going tomorrow is a huge factor but fingers crossed, he's the best stream available in a deep league.
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#14 PPolanco

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 12:14 AM

never again... never again... never again

That was such a stupid stream. Forced it. Could've definitely been worse as he worked out of some jams but that's a WHIP killer for tight races
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#15 MNapoli

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Posted 20 September 2013 - 05:38 AM

never again... never again... never again

That was such a stupid stream. Forced it. Could've definitely been worse as he worked out of some jams but that's a WHIP killer for tight races


More great advice from PPolanco.

#16 RotoMaster

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 02:32 PM

OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.

#17 Backdoor Slider

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 02:38 PM

OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.


On 99 pitches. Was hoping they wouldn't score there because I think he would've come out for the 10th.
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#18 RotoMaster

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 02:52 PM


OK I know its the last day of the year.....but this guy just threw a no-hitter. If you spot started this guy...congrats.


On 99 pitches. Was hoping they wouldn't score there because I think he would've come out for the 10th.


Yup, he was in the on-deck circle when the winning run scored. Def was going til his arm fell off!

#19 PPolanco

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 08:07 PM

he's solid!! But just blew up his sleeper status for next year
I back the realest and original Polanco :-)

#20 jb_power

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Posted 29 September 2013 - 08:08 PM

he's solid!! But just blew up his sleeper status for next year


Solid pitcher but his K rate is awful and always has been




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