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Mark Trumbo 2013 Outlook


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#1 DH61092

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:44 AM

i didn't see one of these for him, so i thought i'd start the conversation. the dude has great home run power and in the angels lineup he could easily get 100+ rbi's. he plays outfield, first base, and most importantly, third base. if you look to use him as a third baseman he could be a steal. if he goes where mlb.com ranks him (132.) he was on fire last year before slumping toward the end of the season. a .270 avg 35 hr 100 rbi season wouldn't surprise me, and that's good production for any position. how many trumbo fans do we have on rotoworld?
C- brian mccann (nyy)
1B- billy butler (kc)
2B- jose altuve (hou)
3B- anthony rendon (wsh)
SS- starlin castro (chc)
OF- matt kemp* (lad)
OF- ben revere (phi)
OF- marcell ozuna (mia)
UT- starling marte (pit)
UT- dilson herrera (nym)



B- mike napoli (bos)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner* (sf), johnny cueto (cin)
SP- scott kazmir (oak), kyle lohse (mil), gio gonzalez (wsh), marcus stroman (tor)
RP- latroy hawkins (col), joe smith (laa), jake mcgee (tb), santiago casilla (sf), sean doolittle (oak), aaron sanchez (tor)
DL- manny machado (bal), daniel murphy (nym)

12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.

#2 Point Shaver

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:26 AM

I want a piece of that Angels lineup I may target him.

#3 mjk356

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:37 AM

He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.

#4 The Big Bat Theory

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:32 AM

I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.

#5 Oriole Way

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:40 AM

He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.


He was hurt in the second half, though. An injury which affected his swing.

Still, your stats and breakdown about his BABIP/LD% is very good analysis and a good warning sign for everyone to take note of.

#6 PRoSPx

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:26 AM

I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.


I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.

This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.

#7 astarlist

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:35 AM

Well, he will have 3b eligibility in Yahoo leagues but that strike out rate is totally concerning. I might try to sell him before the season starts in my dynasty league.
12 team dynasty h2h points league
C C. Santana
1b Trumbo
2b Kipnis, Prado
ss Bogaerts
3b Zimmerman
MI Rutledge
CI Sandoval
OF Choo, Gardner, Fowler, M. Brantley
Util Belt,
BN G. Polanco, Buxton

P Minor, Moore, Salazar, Kennedy, Archer, Yordano, Z. Wheeler, Erasmo Ramirez, T. Walker, Duffy, Bundy, Heaney

#8 ballfan4141

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:45 AM


I'm all aboard the Trumbo train. In Yahoo leagues he is 1B, 3B and OF eligible for this season. Great power plus position flexibility. Love players like that.


I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.

This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.


I targeted trumbo and ike davis for legit power. dropped them both a month into the season. what no name guy can do 30 homeruns this year. he is worth taking a shot on compared to the guys he is ranked with.

Edited by ballfan4141, 05 February 2013 - 10:46 AM.


#9 iAugust

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:32 AM

He obviously could be source of huge power potential at a reasonable price. But his plate discipline issues are very legitimate and reared their ugly head in a catastrophic second half of last season, where he hit .227/.271/.359. He had an O-Swing% of 40.2, which is 9th worst in MLB, up there with the notorious hackers of MLB such as Francouer, Delmon Young, and Josh Hamilton and, to boot, he strikes out a ton. To me, he has the profile of a possible .220-.230 hitter.

Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season

I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.


Came here to post almost exactly this. Well done.

The power is very real.

Everything else, I'm very skeptical of

#10 DH61092

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:10 PM

it's funny people are mentioning ike davis, i had originally planned on taking him, but i needed a third baseman. i think ike davis will have a good year too. and i think trumbo is more like what he was pre-all star break last year. if he avoids those long slumps i don't think i'll be disappointed with his production.
C- brian mccann (nyy)
1B- billy butler (kc)
2B- jose altuve (hou)
3B- anthony rendon (wsh)
SS- starlin castro (chc)
OF- matt kemp* (lad)
OF- ben revere (phi)
OF- marcell ozuna (mia)
UT- starling marte (pit)
UT- dilson herrera (nym)



B- mike napoli (bos)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner* (sf), johnny cueto (cin)
SP- scott kazmir (oak), kyle lohse (mil), gio gonzalez (wsh), marcus stroman (tor)
RP- latroy hawkins (col), joe smith (laa), jake mcgee (tb), santiago casilla (sf), sean doolittle (oak), aaron sanchez (tor)
DL- manny machado (bal), daniel murphy (nym)

12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.

#11 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:21 PM

http://www.fangraphs...things-to-come/

This article doesn't have anything post Morales trade, so obviously he has a clear path to dh as well. I agree with this article. The injury clearly effected him in the final 2 months and his first 2 months was luck aided. He does have a bad ld% so a lower babip should be in order, but his minor league babip's and batting averages were fine so I am going to stick with the theory that this injury really bothered his swing. I see more of a .265 hitter who will his .275 with good luck and .250 with bad luck. He has 40 hr and 120 RBI upside (assuming he hits 5th or at worst 6th) which is rare nowadays. It's best to assume 30-35 hrs and 90-100 RBI, but he has the potential to carry your team in the power departments. In auction leagues his pop may overvalue him considering his shortcomings, but in snake drafts he is a great target for anyone who needs some pop later on. His mdc adp is 66, but CBS and yahoo o-rank are both around 110. 66 does not offer a ton of upside, but 110 sure does.

#12 ballfan4141

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 03:34 PM

trumbo and ike davis where the big power breakout you were hoping for. trumbo was batting over 300 for a while.

#13 Blood Brother

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:03 PM

I thinks his ultimate upside is .270/.320/.550 with 30-40 HR's

last year was so drastic from one half to the other when it comes to his skillset. First half Trumbo was flukey, and 2nd half Trumbo was simply too horrendous. He's at that point in his career where he should start to reach his peak

With Trout/Hamilton/Pujols all hitting in front of him this season, hopefully this is the year he knocks in 100+ while providing a .260+ BA and 35 bombs

Edited by Blood Brother, 13 February 2013 - 04:04 PM.

16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS), Kole Calhoun (LAA - RF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B, LF)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Ivan Nova(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Joe Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (MIA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)

#14 parrothead

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Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:21 PM

i didn't see one of these for him, so i thought i'd start the conversation. the dude has great home run power and in the angels lineup he could easily get 100+ rbi's. he plays outfield, first base, and most importantly, third base. if you look to use him as a third baseman he could be a steal. if he goes where mlb.com ranks him (132.) he was on fire last year before slumping toward the end of the season. a .270 avg 35 hr 100 rbi season wouldn't surprise me, and that's good production for any position. how many trumbo fans do we have on rotoworld?

With him its all about price and value. I agree with what you have written above, he could be a 2-category guy, a liability in average, runs and SBs, that said, looking at his ADP I still like him because I think he is undervalued. I would rather have him than Ryan Howard, who we KNOW is an average liability and honestly, if you gave me the choice to start a team with a mid 1st round pick of Prince Fielder in place or a mid 9th round pick of Trumbo, I would rather have Trumbo.

So while I agree there are some flaws, I think he is being drafted as a 2 category contributor who could have flaws eslewhere but I think he is being taken where a guy like that should go unlike some others.
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#15 DH61092

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Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:50 PM

i've changed my mind about him. on yahoo his average draft position is 105. he's not as much of a bargain if you look at him being taken there.
C- brian mccann (nyy)
1B- billy butler (kc)
2B- jose altuve (hou)
3B- anthony rendon (wsh)
SS- starlin castro (chc)
OF- matt kemp* (lad)
OF- ben revere (phi)
OF- marcell ozuna (mia)
UT- starling marte (pit)
UT- dilson herrera (nym)



B- mike napoli (bos)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner* (sf), johnny cueto (cin)
SP- scott kazmir (oak), kyle lohse (mil), gio gonzalez (wsh), marcus stroman (tor)
RP- latroy hawkins (col), joe smith (laa), jake mcgee (tb), santiago casilla (sf), sean doolittle (oak), aaron sanchez (tor)
DL- manny machado (bal), daniel murphy (nym)

12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.

#16 DWright5

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Posted 06 March 2013 - 05:56 PM

I was just wondering if anyone has been able to see how Mark Trumbo looks this spring. I'm just looking for more information about him. It seems that a lot of people are "down" on him. He does scare me, but I like that he's that magical age of 27. Maybe this year, in a stacked lineup, he will put together a full season. I also like the idea that Trumbo will stick with one fielding position (LF), so maybe that will help clear his head to focus on hitting.

Edited by The Harsh, 07 March 2013 - 02:38 AM.
Removed BC content.

2014 CBS Sportsline 10-team keeper league (5 keepers a team); Roto; Standard 5x5 Categories
2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 CHAMPIONS

C: Wilson Ramos
1B: Mitch Moreland
2B: Jason Kipnis
SS: Everth Cabrera
3B: Adrian Beltre
CI: Manny Machado
MI: Dee Gordon
OF (5): Lucas Duda, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Shin-Soo Choo, Josh Willingham
U (1): Neil Walker
P (9): Adam Wainwright, Anibal Sanchez, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Joakim Soria, Addison Reed, Hector Rondon, Jenrry Mejia

Bench (3): Dallas Keuchel, Wil Myers (injured), Joey Votto (injured)
DL: Bryce Harper

Minors: B. Buxton, N. Syndergaard

#17 Van Buren Boys

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 07:34 PM

Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?
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#18 holyBrowns

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 07:43 PM

Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?


Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.
14 Team Total Points - Weekly Lineup Locks [hitting scoring] 1 pt per single, run, rbi, bb, sb, hbp - 2 pts per double - 3 pts per triple - 4 pts per home run [pitching scoring] 15 pts per win, 3 pts per QS, 2 pts per CG, 1 pt per K, 10 pts per no hitter, 5 pts per perfect game, 8 pts per save, relief win
C: Yan Gomes
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Kyle Seager
SS: Starlin Castro
OF: Mike Trout
OF: Giancarlo Stanton
OF: Alex Rios
DH: David Ortiz
SP: Zack Greinke
SP: Jered Weaver
SP: Johnny Cueto
RP: Jason Grilli
Bench: Bogaerts, Polanco, Morneau, Iwakuma, Peavy, Colon, Simon, Buehrle, Kelly, Chavez

#19 iAugust

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Posted 12 March 2013 - 08:59 PM


Realistically, what kind of numbers are people expecting this year? I'm thinking .265-32-103-5. Too optimistic?


Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.


Related: http://www.fangraphs...things-to-come/

#20 swyck

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Posted 21 March 2013 - 06:59 PM

i've changed my mind about him. on yahoo his average draft position is 105. he's not as much of a bargain if you look at him being taken there.

30 hrs at 105? That seems reasonable but no not a steal.