Mark Trumbo 2013 Outlook
#1
Posted 05 February 2013 - 01:44 AM
1B- billy butler* (kc)
2B- matt carpenter (stl)
3B- ryan zimmerman (wsh)
SS- martin prado (ari)
OF- carlos gonzalez* (col)
OF- desmond jennings (tb)
OF- melky cabrera (tor)
UT- mike morse (sea)
UT- paul konerko (cws)
B- brandon moss (oak), erick aybar (laa), neil walker (pit)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner (sf), anibal sanchez (det)
SP- tommy milone (oak), matt garza (chc), andrew cashner (sd)
RP- greg holland (kc), jim henderson (mil), david robertson (nyy), luke gregerson (sd), ryan cook (oak)
DL- david price (tb), brandon beachy (atl)
12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.
#2
Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:26 AM
#3
Posted 05 February 2013 - 02:37 AM
Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season
I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.
#4
Posted 05 February 2013 - 03:32 AM
#5
Posted 05 February 2013 - 07:40 AM
mjk356, on 05 February 2013 - 02:37 AM, said:
Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season
I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.
He was hurt in the second half, though. An injury which affected his swing.
Still, your stats and breakdown about his BABIP/LD% is very good analysis and a good warning sign for everyone to take note of.
#6
Posted 05 February 2013 - 09:26 AM
The Big Bat Theory, on 05 February 2013 - 03:32 AM, said:
I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.
This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.
#7
Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:35 AM
C C. Santana
1b Belt
2b Kipnis, Kendrick
ss Zobrist, Prado
3b Sandoval
MI Rutledge
CI Zimmerman
OF Choo, Swisher, Gardner, Fowler
Util J. Montero, Trumbo
BN Bogaerts
P Moore, Kennedy, Minor, Hughes, Straily, Bundy, Z. Wheeler, R. Delgado, T. Walker, Duffy, Archer
#8
Posted 05 February 2013 - 10:45 AM
PRoSPx, on 05 February 2013 - 09:26 AM, said:
The Big Bat Theory, on 05 February 2013 - 03:32 AM, said:
I was all on the Trumbo train last year. As I saw him as equal to Ike Davis just going far later in drafts yet he was looking at gaining 3B eligibility from the talks in spring training.
This year I see it as the exact opposite. No 3B eligibility and going much sooner than Ike I'd rather just sit on Ike Davis.
I targeted trumbo and ike davis for legit power. dropped them both a month into the season. what no name guy can do 30 homeruns this year. he is worth taking a shot on compared to the guys he is ranked with.
Edited by ballfan4141, 05 February 2013 - 10:46 AM.
#9
Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:32 AM
mjk356, on 05 February 2013 - 02:37 AM, said:
Why do I say that he could be a .220 hitter? He had a .316 BABIP with a 16.0 LD% last season, which is second lowest of all qualified hitters. Other hitters with LD% in that range? Rickie Weeks, Drew Stubbs, Cam Maybin, JJ Hardy, all who had brutal years. A .316 BABIP is a fairly decent number for a guy like Trumbo, who Ks a lot and runs slowly. His K rate, batted ball profile, BB rate, O-Swing% indicate a guy who should have had a putrid season
I'm taking a very bearish, skeptical stance on Trumbo this season. I think this guy has a ton of red flags. Everything in his profile and peripheral numbers suggest a .220-.230 hitter. Now, that could come with the opportunity for nice counting stats in a stacked Angel lineup, but some of that could also be limited if he has a .280-.290 OBP. But the optimist would say that Trumbo is in a loaded lineup with the upside of elite power. I just personally don't like the guy's profile as a hitter at all and will stay away.
Came here to post almost exactly this. Well done.
The power is very real.
Everything else, I'm very skeptical of
C- M. Montero
1B- P. Konerko
2B- J. Altuve
3B- D. Freese
SS- B. Zobrist
OF- A. Jackson
OF- C. Beltran
OF- A. Pagan
DH- G. Jones
BN- A. Ramirez, C. Ross, D. Stubbs, M. Izturis, A. Rodriguez (DL)
SP- S. Strasburg
SP- D. Price
SP- A. Sanchez
SP- A. Ogando
SP- A. Griffin
CL- G. Perkins
BN- J. Fernandez, J. Grimm, D. Phelps, J. Blanton, Z. Greinke (DL), B. Beachy (DL), T. Lilly (DL), B. Myers (DL), N. Eovaldi (DL)
#10
Posted 05 February 2013 - 12:10 PM
1B- billy butler* (kc)
2B- matt carpenter (stl)
3B- ryan zimmerman (wsh)
SS- martin prado (ari)
OF- carlos gonzalez* (col)
OF- desmond jennings (tb)
OF- melky cabrera (tor)
UT- mike morse (sea)
UT- paul konerko (cws)
B- brandon moss (oak), erick aybar (laa), neil walker (pit)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner (sf), anibal sanchez (det)
SP- tommy milone (oak), matt garza (chc), andrew cashner (sd)
RP- greg holland (kc), jim henderson (mil), david robertson (nyy), luke gregerson (sd), ryan cook (oak)
DL- david price (tb), brandon beachy (atl)
12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.
#11
Posted 13 February 2013 - 01:21 PM
This article doesn't have anything post Morales trade, so obviously he has a clear path to dh as well. I agree with this article. The injury clearly effected him in the final 2 months and his first 2 months was luck aided. He does have a bad ld% so a lower babip should be in order, but his minor league babip's and batting averages were fine so I am going to stick with the theory that this injury really bothered his swing. I see more of a .265 hitter who will his .275 with good luck and .250 with bad luck. He has 40 hr and 120 RBI upside (assuming he hits 5th or at worst 6th) which is rare nowadays. It's best to assume 30-35 hrs and 90-100 RBI, but he has the potential to carry your team in the power departments. In auction leagues his pop may overvalue him considering his shortcomings, but in snake drafts he is a great target for anyone who needs some pop later on. His mdc adp is 66, but CBS and yahoo o-rank are both around 110. 66 does not offer a ton of upside, but 110 sure does.
#12
Posted 13 February 2013 - 03:34 PM
#13
Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:03 PM
last year was so drastic from one half to the other when it comes to his skillset. First half Trumbo was flukey, and 2nd half Trumbo was simply too horrendous. He's at that point in his career where he should start to reach his peak
With Trout/Hamilton/Pujols all hitting in front of him this season, hopefully this is the year he knocks in 100+ while providing a .260+ BA and 35 bombs
Edited by Blood Brother, 13 February 2013 - 04:04 PM.
Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C)
1B - Allen Craig (StL - 1B, LF, RF)
2B - Robinson Cano (NYY - 2B)
3B - Pablo Sandoval (SF - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (CHC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Mike Trout (LAA - LF, CF)
RF - Josh Hamilton (LAA - LF, CF, RF)
Util - Desmond Jennings (TB - LF, CF)
BN - Matt Carpenter (StL - 1B, 2B, 3B, RF)
Pitchers:
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jordan Zimmermann, Jon Niese, Jason Vargas, Garrett Richards, Matt Garza(DL), Scott Baker(DL), Rubby De La Rosa(NA), Kyle Drabek(DL)
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Tom Wilhelmsen,Sean Doolittle, Vinnie Pestano, Jared Burton
Farm System(10 Max): Joe Ross(SD - SP), George Springer(HOU - OF), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Tyrell Jenkins(StL - SP), Anthony Garcia(StL - OF), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Adam Morgan(PHI - SP), Kolten Wong(StL - 2B)
#14
Posted 13 February 2013 - 04:21 PM
DH61092, on 05 February 2013 - 01:44 AM, said:
So while I agree there are some flaws, I think he is being drafted as a 2 category contributor who could have flaws eslewhere but I think he is being taken where a guy like that should go unlike some others.
#15
Posted 19 February 2013 - 02:50 PM
1B- billy butler* (kc)
2B- matt carpenter (stl)
3B- ryan zimmerman (wsh)
SS- martin prado (ari)
OF- carlos gonzalez* (col)
OF- desmond jennings (tb)
OF- melky cabrera (tor)
UT- mike morse (sea)
UT- paul konerko (cws)
B- brandon moss (oak), erick aybar (laa), neil walker (pit)
SP- felix hernandez* (sea), madison bumgarner (sf), anibal sanchez (det)
SP- tommy milone (oak), matt garza (chc), andrew cashner (sd)
RP- greg holland (kc), jim henderson (mil), david robertson (nyy), luke gregerson (sd), ryan cook (oak)
DL- david price (tb), brandon beachy (atl)
12 teams, 4 keepers, hitting stats: r, hits, 2b, hr, rbi, sb, avg, ops. pitching stats: w, l, s, holds, cg, era, whip, k's.
#16
Posted 06 March 2013 - 05:56 PM
Edited by The Harsh, 07 March 2013 - 02:38 AM.
Removed BC content.
2007, 2008, 2010, 2011 CHAMPIONS
C: Alex Avila
1B: Billy Butler
2B: Aaron Hill
SS: Troy Tulowitzki
3B: Lonnie Chisenhall
CI: Paul Konerko
MI: Alcides Escobar
OF (5): Justin Upton, Bryce Harper, Desmond Jennings, Mark Trumbo, Jay Bruce
U (1): Victor Martinez
P (9): Adam Wainwright, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Jim Henderson, Chris Perez, JJ Putz
Bench (3): Ross Detwiler, Dillon Gee, Trevor Rosenthal
DL: Brett Lawrie
Minors: W. Myers, M. Machado
#17
Posted 12 March 2013 - 07:34 PM
#18
Posted 12 March 2013 - 07:43 PM
Van Buren Boys, on 12 March 2013 - 07:34 PM, said:
Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.
Lineup:
C: Matt Wieters ($19)
1B: Mark Reynolds ($6)
2B: Dustin Pedroia ($38, keeper)
SS: Starlin Castro ($35)
3B: Aramis Ramirez ($20)
OF: Mike Trout ($1, keeper)
OF: B.J. Upton ($10, keeper)
OF: Jose Bautista ($50)
UT: Paul Konerko ($21)
3 SPs per week: Wainwright ($25), Ryu, Marcum, Lohse, Buehrle, Wheeler ($1), Beachy, Kazmir
1 RP per week: Mariano Rivera
Reserves: D. Viciedo, C. Yelich, K. Seager, C. Carter
@TheHolyWon
#19
Posted 12 March 2013 - 08:59 PM
holyBrowns, on 12 March 2013 - 07:43 PM, said:
Van Buren Boys, on 12 March 2013 - 07:34 PM, said:
Honestly, I have no clue what to think of Trumbo this season and it's extremely frustrating. What happened in the second-half last year with his drop off? Minor injury or pitchers figured him out? I haven't seen enough of his live at-bats, and seeing one-swing highlights on ESPN/YouTube doesn't help.
Related: http://www.fangraphs...things-to-come/
C- M. Montero
1B- P. Konerko
2B- J. Altuve
3B- D. Freese
SS- B. Zobrist
OF- A. Jackson
OF- C. Beltran
OF- A. Pagan
DH- G. Jones
BN- A. Ramirez, C. Ross, D. Stubbs, M. Izturis, A. Rodriguez (DL)
SP- S. Strasburg
SP- D. Price
SP- A. Sanchez
SP- A. Ogando
SP- A. Griffin
CL- G. Perkins
BN- J. Fernandez, J. Grimm, D. Phelps, J. Blanton, Z. Greinke (DL), B. Beachy (DL), T. Lilly (DL), B. Myers (DL), N. Eovaldi (DL)
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