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Adam Laroche 2013 OutlookGreat 2012, Repeat or Fallout?


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#1 Stanford410

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Posted 05 February 2013 - 11:44 PM

We all know Laroche was one of the best Free Agent pickups of 2012 because of his outburst. Some may say it was his only big power year however he has always hit 20+ home runs.

[for those who don't know, babip is batting average on balls in play]

in 2004(rookie season and had platooned with Julio Franco) 13 hr in 324 ab's(atl)
2005- 20 hr in 452 ab(atl) .328 babip
2006- 32 hr in 557 ab(atl) .319 babip
2007- 21 hr in 563 ab(pit) .318 babip
2008- 25 hr in 492 ab(pit) .308 babip
2009- 25 hr in 555 ab(3 teams) .328 babip
2010-25 hr in 560 ab(arz) .330 babip
2011-3 hr in 151 ab(wash, injured for 3/4 of season)
2012- 33 hr in 571 ab(wash) .298 babip

He had the lowest babip of his career last season, however hit the most home runs of his career last season as well. The power is there no doubt, but can he hit 30+ and return to the top tier of first baseman (top 5)?will he slide down to the edge of top 10, or be irrelevant for fantasy play this season? anyone have some projections? I dont see a big fallout + i think he will finish as the #7 or #8 1st basemen for 2013.

Im thinking around .265-.272 27-32 hr 99-107 rbi and 560+ ab's

Edited by Stanford410, 05 February 2013 - 11:45 PM.

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#2 The King Maker

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 01:39 AM

I have Laroche in every single one of my H2H leagues because he's a second half monster.

His career average OPS in the second half is .886, which from last year's overall numbers would put him right between David Wright and Josh Willingham from last year, or 13th overall.  Last year, his numbers were slightly below average for him, for his second half, but still a very good number.

Another factor is the parks.  He first really broke out with Atlanta, which plays neutral to LH batters in terms of power, but after being traded to Pitsburgh, his numbers took a hit because that is an extreme pitcher's park.  I think he woud've been a consistent 30 HR guy, had he played outside of Pitt.

I think his overall value is as a good 1B, but he has exceptional value in the second half, especially for the price you are paying.  And as long as he isn't hurt, he is consistent about the second half.  The difference last year was really the fact that his first half wasn't horrible, which led to the across the board numbers spike.  Given that he's in a good lineup, in a good park, I think he should replicate the numbers from last year.

#3 Stanford410

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 11:25 PM

View PostThe King Maker, on 06 February 2013 - 01:39 AM, said:

I have Laroche in every single one of my H2H leagues because he's a second half monster.

His career average OPS in the second half is .886, which from last year's overall numbers would put him right between David Wright and Josh Willingham from last year, or 13th overall.  Last year, his numbers were slightly below average for him, for his second half, but still a very good number.

Another factor is the parks.  He first really broke out with Atlanta, which plays neutral to LH batters in terms of power, but after being traded to Pitsburgh, his numbers took a hit because that is an extreme pitcher's park.  I think he woud've been a consistent 30 HR guy, had he played outside of Pitt.

I think his overall value is as a good 1B, but he has exceptional value in the second half, especially for the price you are paying.  And as long as he isn't hurt, he is consistent about the second half.  The difference last year was really the fact that his first half wasn't horrible, which led to the across the board numbers spike.  Given that he's in a good lineup, in a good park, I think he should replicate the numbers from last year.
Im hoping he does. Im not really one to keep guys over the age of 30, but he may be the first.
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#4 BigPapi44

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Posted 06 February 2013 - 11:27 PM

Hitting clean-up with a good supporting cast, provided he stays healthy, I think he can equal his stats from last year.

#5 klove42

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Posted 07 February 2013 - 08:31 AM

ESPN is raking him so low... I think he is one of my must drafts this year. Even if his stats fall to .270 25 90 that is still great value for where he is being ranked.
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#6 ballfan4141

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 10:27 AM

no one cares about his 2 HRs.

#7 yaw62

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 12:01 PM

Apparently not...I was happy to have him in the lineup, even with a normal first half slump I will take anything positive in the first few months
10 Team Mixed - Category League 8X8 Scoring

"Precious Cargo..."


C - M. Wieters
1B - E. Encarnacion
2B - C. Utley

SS - E. Cabrera
3B - D. Wright
OF - C. Gonzalez, J. Upton, J. Bruce
UTIL - E. Hosmer
UTIL - J. Abreu
BN - B. Miller (2B/SS), B. Revere (OF), J. Hamilton (OF-DL)

NA - G. Springer (OF)


SP - J. Zimmerman, M. Cain, J. Shields, J. Samardzija, T. Cingrani, C. Kluber, T. Lincecum, R. Porcello, N. Eovaldi,  DL - J. Paxton
RP - G. Perkins, E. Frieri, L. Hawkins

#8 Jay85

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Posted 10 April 2013 - 03:02 PM

View Postyaw62, on 10 April 2013 - 12:01 PM, said:

Apparently not...I was happy to have him in the lineup, even with a normal first half slump I will take anything positive in the first few months

View Postballfan4141, on 10 April 2013 - 10:27 AM, said:

no one cares about his 2 HRs.

Hope he can continue and produce a good power for next few weeks so i can trade him..

#9 Jmadtown

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:29 AM

This dude just hit the wire in my 10 teamer. He had 33 homeruns last year... Is he really sucking that bad?
Yahoo 14 Team 6x6-Scoring-R/H/RBI/SB/BB/AVG-W/L/IP/K/ERA/Saves
C:  Joe Mauer
1B: Jose Abreu
2B: Dustin Pedroia
SS: Ben Zobrist
3B: Miguel Cabrera
OF: Yasiel Puig, Starling Marte, Grady Sizemore
UT:Xander Bogaerts
Bench: Chris Carter, Morse, Kolten Wong, Abraham Almonte
SP: James Shields, Johnny Cueto, Sonny Gray, Chris Archer, Yovani Gallardo
Yordano Ventura
RP: Glen Perkins, John Axford, Rex Brothers

2012 Fantasy Baseball Champion-10 Team-H2H-5x5
2013 Fantasy Basketball Champion 10 Team-H2H-9-Cat
2013 Fantasy Baseball Champion-10 Team-H2H-5x5

#10 SkinsNoles21

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 10:37 AM

I've watched a lot of Nats games so far and he's been hitting lasers all year. Before the 2HR game, he had a couple balls that would have easily been home runs in the warm weather (announcers said he could easily have 4 by now).

When he hit his first home run ... Showed a coach saying "about time" because he has been hitting well, just unlucky.

I like Laroche to repeat something similar to last year. Batting cleanup for one of, if not, the best team in baseball and feeling comfortable.
Weekly 12 Team 5x5 H2H Keeper
Bats:
C: Victor Martinez 1B: David Ortiz 2B: Brandon Phillips 3B: Miguel Cabrera (K) SS: JJ Hardy OF: Jayson Werth, Yoenis Cespedes (K), Hunter Pence Util: Curtis Granderson  DL: Carlos Gonzalez (K), Cameron Maybin
Arms:
SP: Matt Harvey (K), Adam Wainwright (K), Hiroki Kuroda, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Ivan Nova, Jhoulys Chacin, Matt Garza, John Lackey, Joe Kelly, Alex Wood  RP: Koji Uehara, Aroldis Chapman, Glen Perkins

Daily 12 Team 6x6 H2H Keeper
Bats:
C: Matt Wieters 1B: Billy Butler 2B: Brett Lawrie 3B: Miguel Cabrera (K) SS: Jose Reyes OF: Adam Jones (K), Yasiel Puig (K), Leonyis Martin Util: Aaron Hill, Shin Shoo Choo BN: Adam Laroche, Alex Rodriguez DL: Carlos Gonzalez (K)
Arms:
SP: Max Scherzer (K), Patrick Corbin, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Shelby Miller, Brandon Beachy, Jarrod Parker, Sonny Gray, Jeff Samardzija, RP: Aroldis Chapman, Mariano Rivera, Glen Perkins, Danny Farquhar DL: Bobby Parnell

#11 bturn10

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Posted 11 April 2013 - 11:00 AM

yea i've watched most of his at bats...he's had a lot of good at bats and has hit a lot of balls hard, but right at people...he'll be fine and should be good for close to 30 homers and 100 rbi again, provided he stays healthy.

Edited by bturn10, 11 April 2013 - 11:00 AM.


#12 champy41

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Posted 17 April 2013 - 04:27 PM

couldn't squeeze him into my lineup in time tonight because Gattis already played at Util...so, he'll hit 2 HRs...you're welcome!

Man I'm ready for him to catch fire b/c it is fun to watch when he does.

Edited by champy41, 17 April 2013 - 04:31 PM.

12 team h2h money league (non-keeper). Categories are: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP

C-Brian McCann (NYY - C)
1B-Mike Napoli (Bos - 1B)
2B-Ian Kinsler (Det - 2B)
3B-Matt Carpenter (StL - 2B,3B)
SS-Troy Tulowitzki (Col - SS)
OF-Carlos Gonzalez (Col - OF), Shin-Soo Choo (Tex - OF), Mark Trumbo (Ari - 1B,OF)
Util-Anthony Rendon (Was - 2B,3B), Melky Cabrera (Tor - OF), Michael Morse (SF - 1B,OF), George Springer (Hou - OF)

SP-Felix Hernandez (Sea - SP), Jon Lester (Bos - SP), Shelby Miller (StL - SP), Alex Wood (Atl - SP,RP)
RP-Glen Perkins (Min - RP), Joakim Soria (Tex - RP), Francisco Rodriguez (Mil - RP), Sergio Santos (Tor - RP)
P-Yordano Ventura (KC - SP), Chris Tillman (Bal - SP), Jesse Chavez (Oak - SP,RP)
DL-Doug Fister (Was - SP)

#13 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 April 2013 - 04:36 PM

when I sit him he hit 2 HRs. maybe I will start him since you sat him but it prb. wont work.

#14 bturn10

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 08:05 PM

this guy needs to figure it out..3 strikeouts today, last one with the bases loaded..

#15 coleporter

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 08:39 PM

Tyler Moore time.
C Gomes
1B Goldschmidt
2B Altuve
3B Uribe
SS Owings
OF Puig
OF Myers
Of  Bradley Jr.
UTL Jose Abreu
Bench:
Calhoun, Castellanos, Kubel, Ackley
Multi-Position: Ackley (2B, OF)
SP: Fernandez, Teheran, Cingrani, Alex Wood,Martin Perez. RP: Rosenthal,  Carlos Martinez, Doolittle
DL: Middlebrooks

#16 Choo on Wieters

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 08:47 PM

El golden Sombrero.

I know he will get it together after the ASG, but can I wait that long...
12 team H2H 6X6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, Avg, OPS.-- W, L, K, Sv, ERA, WHIP)

Chapmanstein

C-        Yasmani Grandal
1B-      Joey Votto
2B-      Howie Kendrick
3B-      Ryan Zimmerman
SS-      JJ Hardy
1B/3B- Matt Adams
2B/SS- Neil Walker
OF- W. Myers, J. Hamilton, B. Hamilton, Ludwick, R. Davis
Util- Bourjos
Bench- Hicks, Semien, K. Johnson
SP- Price, Liriano, Salazar, Ventura, Santiago
RP- Frieri, Grilli, Fields, Chapman (out), broxton(out)
DL- Kershaw

#17 ballfan4141

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 09:49 PM

last year his stats were identical pre and post all star break for those thinking about the second half player he is.

#18 BigPapi44

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Posted 23 April 2013 - 09:54 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 23 April 2013 - 09:49 PM, said:

last year his stats were identical pre and post all star break for those thinking about the second half player he is.
Ya, but last year was an outlier than the norm.  If you can, best to keep him on the bench first 6-8 weeks, then insert.

#19 Wombat

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 01:33 PM

Dude is unfathomably and comically awful right now. I had an open spot yesterday with the rain out and just sat him anyway to avoid his daily 0-4.

#20 ballfan4141

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Posted 27 April 2013 - 03:09 PM

dropping him. someone else can have him.




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