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Ryan Zimmerman 2013 Outlook


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#1 ballfan4141

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Posted 09 February 2013 - 01:55 PM

he finished good. his shoulder is cleared. is this going to be a full healthy season.

#2 phizzics

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Posted 10 February 2013 - 01:08 PM

Zimmerman has been around long enough, and has had so many nagging injuries, that it's hard to believe he's only 28. He struggled with an AC joint problem all last year but had surgery in the off-season and should be pain free by ST. Even with a bad shoulder he managed a pretty decent line: 93R 25HR 95RBI 5SB .282.

I don't think it's unreasonable to expect another 5+ homers and some improvement in everything else (except for steals).

#3 JFS171

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 03:56 PM

Was looking at this guy the other day and was utterly shocked by the second half he put together.  When his shoulder stopped bothering him (consistently took cortizone shots), he ended up hitting .366 in the month of July with 10 bombs.

Post ASB he went off for a .319/.381/.564 line with 17 HRs, 55 RBI, and 51 Rs in 76 games -- that is otherworldly.

Off-season surgery fixed the shoulder, and that's an excellent lineup for production.  I doubt he hits that well for a full season, but is .300/30/100/100 completely out of line?

#4 cyberer

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:06 PM

I wouldn't say his shoulder is 100% "good," they are limiting his spring reps at 3B because, like last year, throwing across the diamond still gives him trouble.

IDK if it will affect his swing, but at the time last year when he couldn't make the throw at 3B it definitely DID affect his swing.
SIG UPDATED TO INCLUDE FOOTBALL!

Purple Breesus   1st place place in points/standings

12 Team PPR

QB Brees
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WR2 Demaryius Thomas
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TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

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DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

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#5 JFS171

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 04:28 PM

Agreed on the shoulder rehab bleeding into spring training, but from what I've seen he's supposed to be good to go by opening day.  He's hitting now, and throwing from 90+ feet.

#6 malta69

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:02 PM

When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???
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#7 jb_power

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:12 PM

View Postmalta69, on 28 February 2013 - 05:02 PM, said:

When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

When Rendon is ready and the move LaRoche to another team.

#8 JFS171

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 05:29 PM

View Postjb_power, on 28 February 2013 - 05:12 PM, said:

View Postmalta69, on 28 February 2013 - 05:02 PM, said:

When does it get to the point where the Nats decide its in the best interest for all parties involved to move him off the hot corner???

When Rendon is ready and the move LaRoche to another team.

Not so sure about that.  Rendon's not exactly a picture of health, and isn't Zimm pretty strong defensively at 3B (arm issues from last year notwithstanding)?

I think Rendon ends up at 2B in the near future, especially if Espinosa continues to hit .230.  LaRoche is on a 2-year deal, right?  And it's much easier to find a guy for 1B than an elite-level 3B.

#9 cyberer

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 06:21 PM

He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.
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QB Brees
WR1 Dez Bryant
WR2 Demaryius Thomas
WR3 Jordy Nelson
RB1 Adrian Peterson
RB2 Darren Sproles
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

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DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

BENCH: Mike Tolbert, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Ogbonnaya

#10 exm

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 07:33 PM

Draft Zimm based on his promise, and you'll be disappointed.
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#11 JFS171

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 10:15 AM

View Postcyberer, on 28 February 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.

He's got another 4 weeks at least to get ready for the season, and Zimmerman is rather infamous for believing Spring Training to be too long and drawn out.  He's probably perfectly happy where he is...

#12 cyberer

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 12:19 PM

View PostJFS171, on 01 March 2013 - 10:15 AM, said:

View Postcyberer, on 28 February 2013 - 06:21 PM, said:

He just today started throwing to second base per RW. They treat it as good news, I'm personally thinking it's bad news or at best neutral.

He's got another 4 weeks at least to get ready for the season, and Zimmerman is rather infamous for believing Spring Training to be too long and drawn out.  He's probably perfectly happy where he is...

Yeah, he sure started out with a bang last year...
SIG UPDATED TO INCLUDE FOOTBALL!

Purple Breesus   1st place place in points/standings

12 Team PPR

QB Brees
WR1 Dez Bryant
WR2 Demaryius Thomas
WR3 Jordy Nelson
RB1 Adrian Peterson
RB2 Darren Sproles
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

K Crosby
DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

BENCH: Mike Tolbert, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Ogbonnaya

#13 exm

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 12:32 PM

This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.
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#14 JFS171

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:09 PM

View Postcyberer, on 01 March 2013 - 12:19 PM, said:

Yeah, he sure started out with a bang last year...

He was hurt?  What's your point here?

#15 JFS171

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:11 PM

View Postexm, on 01 March 2013 - 12:32 PM, said:

This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

Can't disagree more with this.  Headley, the ever-under-peforming guy with one fluke year of elite production?

Healey's HR/FB% for his career:

2008 - 10.7%
2009 - 7.6%
2010 - 6.4%
2011 - 4.3%
2012 - 21.4%

Sing it with me - "One of these things is not like the other..."

#16 exm

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:46 PM

^^^ Or.... breakout year?
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#17 JFS171

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 02:53 PM

View Postexm, on 01 March 2013 - 02:46 PM, said:

^^^ Or.... breakout year?

At 28?  Guess he wouldn't be the first...

Let's look at ISO...

2008 - .151
2009 - .131
2010 - .111
2011 - .110
2012 - .212

Not to mention a career-high 48.5 GB% and a 1.51 GB/FB ratio.

If you buy Chase Headley expecting more than 15 HRs, you're likely to be disappointed.  The speed is legit, and he can hit .285+, but I don't buy the power spike... not in that park especially.

#18 Orion Braun

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 03:03 PM

View Postexm, on 01 March 2013 - 12:32 PM, said:

This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

JFS tackled the latter portion of why this statement is wrong, so I'll look at the first. Not sure why he gets the tag of "always injured". 2 of his 7 MLB seasons ('08 & '11) shortened due to injury. The other years - 157, 162 (!), 157, 142, 145. And he still played over 100 games in both of the two injury-shortened seasons.

He's a professional hitter, hitting in a great spot in a great lineup. There is reason to expect a bit of regression from last year's numbers, but I have plenty of confidence projecting him to hit .280/23HR/85R/90RBI with potential to easily finish north of each of those categories, given that he is still just 28 years old.
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#19 JFS171

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 03:12 PM

View PostOrion Braun, on 01 March 2013 - 03:03 PM, said:

View Postexm, on 01 March 2013 - 12:32 PM, said:

This guys is always injured - I had him in my dynasty year for 2 years - and I don't trust his shoulder. I would draft Headley instead.

JFS tackled the latter portion of why this statement is wrong, so I'll look at the first. Not sure why he gets the tag of "always injured". 2 of his 7 MLB seasons ('08 & '11) shortened due to injury. The other years - 157, 162 (!), 157, 142, 145. And he still played over 100 games in both of the two injury-shortened seasons.

He's a professional hitter, hitting in a great spot in a great lineup. There is reason to expect a bit of regression from last year's numbers, but I have plenty of confidence projecting him to hit .280/23HR/85R/90RBI with potential to easily finish north of each of those categories, given that he is still just 28 years old.

Good line, but I'd bet the power is better.  Given he's posted a 33 HR season, and hit 25 twice (including last year), and 24 another time, I think 27-28 is a conservative number.  The guy hit 20 of his 25 HRs from July on last year.

I don't think he holds that pace, but assuming he hits a total of 5 HRs in April, May, and June again would be an equal fallacy in my opinion.

#20 cyberer

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Posted 01 March 2013 - 04:40 PM

He was hurt? He still is hurt. He can't field his position RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK. What are you even arguing in support of? That we should magically ignore the fact that he's obviously being brought along slowly because he "never takes spring seriously?" as if that's a good thing?
SIG UPDATED TO INCLUDE FOOTBALL!

Purple Breesus   1st place place in points/standings

12 Team PPR

QB Brees
WR1 Dez Bryant
WR2 Demaryius Thomas
WR3 Jordy Nelson
RB1 Adrian Peterson
RB2 Darren Sproles
TE Rob Gronkowski
FLEX Kendall Wright OR Pierre Thomas OR Bobby Rainey

K Crosby
DEF Saints, Jets (playing weekly matchups)

BENCH: Mike Tolbert, Mario Manningham, Miles Austin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Chris Ogbonnaya




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