184 replies to this topic

[SuperJoint]

He's being drafted as though he could anchor a staff (early-mid 5th rd). Any lingering concerns with him? He was solid last year but not his dominant self. Arrow pointing up or down 2nd yr back from TJ?

[jaymaynard]

Love him this year.  He actually had a virtually identical season to the one he had 2 years before last year.  The only difference was he was a little unlucky in terms of strand rate and BABIP.  I'd take him in the 5th every time

[Red Sox Nation]

I LOVE him this year and all though he won't be coming at a big discount (drafted as the #12 sp right now), I think he is more than worth it. I hope to have him as the ace of my staff. His 2nd half (7-5, 3.28 era, 1.14 whip, 86 k's in 96 innings) are pretty close to what you'd look for in a low end sp1/ high end sp2. It stinks that he loses the Astros whom he went 3-0 with a 1.66 era against, but he should still be a borderline ace as he progresses further away from his surgery.

[cyberer]

Yeah, his peripherals were unchanged in 2012 from his 2009-2010 norms.

However, I hesitate to say that he got "unlucky" with his high BABIP and HR rates. He wasn't pitching as well in terms of having a feel for his stuff in key situations. People were making harder contact and better contact. Not all hits are created equal.

That said, he had a fantastic 2nd half and as I said his peripherals said that he is pretty close to being the same pitcher. Another year of recovery = giddy up.

He is still probably a better SP2 than an "anchor."

Edited by cyberer, 10 February 2013 - 12:40 AM.

[baltimore_boy]

I really like Waino to bounce back to form this year now that he is going to be 2 years removed from surgery. If I remember correctly, he suffered from bad defense last year. I remember seeing the lineup almost every time he pitched and it having Beltran in CF over Jay.

[SuperJoint]

cyberer, on 10 February 2013 - 12:40 AM, said:

He is still probably a better SP2 than an "anchor."

I agree - but I rarely take a pitcher before the 4th-5th rd, so for those with that draft strategy he's a potential staff "ace". He's usually sitting in the same tier with MadBum, Sabathia, Dickey, Gio - some decent choices. If you're looking for one of these guys to be a #1, you want reasonable assurance they'll be healthy. Wainwright's recent TJ is one way to distinguish him from those other pitchers. Sabbathia's mileage and recent decline is a red flag as well.

[ballfan4141]

he was an ace in may, july and august. the other months not so much.

[iAugust]

SuperJoint, on 09 February 2013 - 06:49 PM, said:

He was solid last year but not his dominant self.

As others have mentioned, I don't think this is quite the case at all. Some numbers to back it up:

2009 - 3.11 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 21.9 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9
2010 - 2.86 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 23.4 K%, 6.2 BB%, .59 HR/9
2012 -3.10 FIP, 3.23 xFIP, 22.1 K%, 6.3 BB%, .68 HR/9
Career-3.31 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, 20.4 K%, 6.8 BB%, .66 HR/9

Bad luck that resulted in a career-high .315 BABIP and, an absurdly low and unsustainable strand rate (67.8% compared to his career 75.2%) and -- as someone who owned Waino and watched a lot of his games last year -- a ton of bad defense on his starts are what inflated his ERA. Not to mention the fact that he had an awful first half and still put up these numbers. His ERA was 3.28 after the All-Star Break.

I've got him ranked as my #12 SP, right behind Sabathia and Hamels and right in front of Bumgarner and Gio

Edited by iAugust, 25 February 2013 - 05:57 PM.

[96mnc]

cyberer, on 10 February 2013 - 12:40 AM, said:

Yeah, his peripherals were unchanged in 2012 from his 2009-2010 norms.

However, I hesitate to say that he got "unlucky" with his high BABIP and HR rates. He wasn't pitching as well in terms of having a feel for his stuff in key situations. People were making harder contact and better contact. Not all hits are created equal.

That said, he had a fantastic 2nd half and as I said his peripherals said that he is pretty close to being the same pitcher. Another year of recovery = giddy up.

He is still probably a better SP2 than an "anchor."

Yep, but command is the last thing to come back following-TJ so I wrote it off as him knocking off he rust.

[Obscene_Domino]

10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks through Spring Training this year.

Would you guys rather have like Greinke, or Gio or take Wainwright this year? Seems to be where he is about ranked.

[Ned Ryerson]

Id rather have Waino over those guys. big year for him

[jscott26]

Obscene_Domino, on 15 March 2013 - 11:19 AM, said:

10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks through Spring Training this year.

Would you guys rather have like Greinke, or Gio or take Wainwright this year? Seems to be where he is about ranked.

Make that: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 12 K's for this spring

I'd take Gio over Wainwright, but definitely not Greinke over Wainwright with the whole elbow sitch.

[Dodger Blue 88]

jscott26, on 15 March 2013 - 07:12 PM, said:

Obscene_Domino, on 15 March 2013 - 11:19 AM, said:

10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 10 Ks through Spring Training this year.

Would you guys rather have like Greinke, or Gio or take Wainwright this year? Seems to be where he is about ranked.

Make that: 16.1 IP, 2.76 ERA, 12 K's for this spring

I'd take Gio over Wainwright, but definitely not Greinke over Wainwright with the whole elbow sitch.

This.

[jscott26]

This is also noteworthy:

"In an interesting tale, the right-hander was leaving the stadium following a rough start against the Nationals on March 2 when a group of fans handed him a picture. He noticed his stride had shortened this spring and he extended it 6 inches for his next outing.

In two starts since the change, he has allowed one earned run in 10 2/3 innings. "It's made a huge deal," Wainwright said. "It gives my pitches more life. I've found that happy zone where I'm not extended too far where my ball flattens out but I'm a little bit closer to the plate now and I'm able to get on top of the ball so I'm getting better downhill plane."

Link from CBS: http://fantasynews.c...adam-wainwright

...I know pitching coaches in the majors aren't supposed to mess with mechanics but you'd think they'd be a bit more observant given the surgery. A 6 inch increase in stride length is pretty drastic when you think about the change in torque associated with a 6'7" wingspan. Tip of the cap to the folks in St. Louis.

[yoda]

I agree that I would not be comfortable with him as my #1 but should be a great #2.

[The Czar]

This is where Fantasy site prerankings are really screwing up the guys that do advanced research.

I really want Wainwright on my team, but it looks like he is being ranked as an ace on every site as if the last two years didn't happen.

I know that they are just doing their job, but in years past you could get a guy like this that was injured and unlucky the previous two seasons in the later rounds.  You will have to pay a premium price to own him this year.

[NYSportsfan24]

The Czar, on 16 March 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

This is where Fantasy site prerankings are really screwing up the guys that do advanced research.

I really want Wainwright on my team, but it looks like he is being ranked as an ace on every site as if the last two years didn't happen.

I know that they are just doing their job, but in years past you could get a guy like this that was injured and unlucky the previous two seasons in the later rounds.  You will have to pay a premium price to own him this year.

But will he produce like an ace??

[baltimore_boy]

NYSportsfan24, on 16 March 2013 - 11:00 AM, said:

The Czar, on 16 March 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

This is where Fantasy site prerankings are really screwing up the guys that do advanced research.

I really want Wainwright on my team, but it looks like he is being ranked as an ace on every site as if the last two years didn't happen.

I know that they are just doing their job, but in years past you could get a guy like this that was injured and unlucky the previous two seasons in the later rounds.  You will have to pay a premium price to own him this year.

But will he produce like an ace??

Probably a low end ace. I see him as being in the 3rd tier of starters in terms of production, right around Matt Cain and Cliff Lee, and ahead of Zack Greinke.

[The Czar]

NYSportsfan24, on 16 March 2013 - 11:00 AM, said:

The Czar, on 16 March 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

This is where Fantasy site prerankings are really screwing up the guys that do advanced research.

I really want Wainwright on my team, but it looks like he is being ranked as an ace on every site as if the last two years didn't happen.

I know that they are just doing their job, but in years past you could get a guy like this that was injured and unlucky the previous two seasons in the later rounds.  You will have to pay a premium price to own him this year.

But will he produce like an ace??

His peripherals have been pretty steady for awhile, so he is a pretty easy guy to project as long as he stays healthy.

15+ wins, low 3's ERA, WHIP in the 1.15-20 range, 200-210 Ks.

Given that his K/9 and BB/9 were pretty much identical to career norms, it's safe to say he will be the same pitcher he was from 2008-2010.  Rank accordingly.

[yoda]

The Czar, on 16 March 2013 - 10:58 AM, said:

This is where Fantasy site prerankings are really screwing up the guys that do advanced research.

I really want Wainwright on my team, but it looks like he is being ranked as an ace on every site as if the last two years didn't happen.

I know that they are just doing their job, but in years past you could get a guy like this that was injured and unlucky the previous two seasons in the later rounds.  You will have to pay a premium price to own him this year.

Yep, Adam will likely go before I am willing to take him this year.  He was much more hittable last year than in the past.