74 replies to this topic

[mevins31]

Can this guy be the best QB In fantasy in 2013? When I watch him throw the ball it's the reason I think he could be #1. He's insanely accurate and has an unreal arm. Then of course we know of the big plays with his legs.

He's like Cam Newton with a better supporting cast, defense, and head coach.

[rraayy3]

The only thing that'll slow him down is the fact the 9ers have a good defense. He won't need to throw all day or pile up garbage time stats like Brees/Cam (among others) will.

I think he can definitely be a top 5 QB next year regardless. Love those rushing yards/TDs from QBs.

[Pooskay]

he should be consistent enough to be a reliable starter each week...#1 FF QB? not so sure about that....maybe if SF picks up a big-play WR.....

also, SF better adjust their playbook a bit and let CK become more of a natural passer and let him run in the flow of the game.....sort of like Steve Young ;-)

Edited by Pooskay, 10 February 2013 - 09:38 PM.

[BxBOMBERs28]

Sky is the limit for this guy. Def top 5-10 QB nxt yr. Has the talent to finish #1 overall within the nxt yr or two IMO.

[cbe_88]

All the upside in the world, yet he's started what, 12 games? So one is left to wonder what his floor of production might be if it takes more than a year for him to reach his immense top-5 upside. Can't get my head around this guy. You can't ignore his production last year, and his arm is so accurate for such a young QB. A lot to love about Kaep, he'll likely stay put as a mid-round QB next year since he's started only 12 games or so. He's definitely a guy that appears worth the investment.

Again you can't ignore the pretty moderate but real risk there is for a guy who has such little starting experience, but he's in probably the most ideal team for a young QB, premier o-line established running game, elite TE, and a top-5 defense. If Crabtree keeps improving he's got everything there, he just needs to continue putting it together. I'd still advise pairing Kaep with another serviceable QB, but Kaep is a mid-round investment that could be a major payday.

[theSPANKER]

Mid-round investment?  Not too sure about that as I'm sure there will be guys who reach for him.  I don't see him going past the 4th/5th round in most drafts next year because his upside is so high.

And depending on your league and how fast QBs fly off the board he may go sooner.

[cbe_88]

Right, I see 5th round range, about when the second tier of QB's start going in a 12-teamer. 5th-6th round is what i call middle rounds. If someone is gonna go for Kaep in the 4th that's fine, I won't be going for him that early. To say he won't be available in the 5th round range is a pretty lofty expectation for a guy who's only started 12 games. I still think his true lack of experience keeps him as a 5th round range pickup

[DocJ]

If I could get him in the 5th I would be thrilled. My guess is his ADP will be a solid round higher then that however.

[theSPANKER]

Oh OK, 5th-6th rounds are middle rounds for you.  But again depends on your league scoring settings.

In my 12-man PPR league we award 6pts for all TDs, 1pt for every 10 rushing yards and 1pt per 20yds passing.

So you can see why he'd be gone in the 4th round because of his immense upside potential.  Those rushing yards make his weekly floor pretty stable even for a guy with limited experience.  But yes in the 5th I'd probably be all over him and possibly late 4th with 2 picks back-to-back, or close to that.

[cbe_88]

 DocJ, on 11 February 2013 - 03:32 PM, said:

If I could get him in the 5th I would be thrilled. My guess is his ADP will be a solid round higher then that however.

Maybe he'll grow on me even more, but I can't do the 4th...tasty targets are still there in the 4th, a guy like David Wilson comes to mind, and I've even seen Murray/Forte types slip in the early 4th...I'll take my chances and see if Kaep is there in the 5th, I'm fine with missing on him if he's gone by the 5th, the 4th round is steep for a guy who might need a year or two before reaching his insane potential.

And one of my leagues is 6-pt TD's passing and rushing...so his 6-pt rushing TD upside is just as good as a traditional QB's passing TD upside. Love Kaep, but 5th round is the price I'm willing to pay right now.

[FFCollusion]

I think all QB's drop a bit in value next year.  Brees/Rodgers/Brady still represent the Elite 3, it's just a smaller gap to the next tier of P.Manning/Cam/RG3 and then I have Kaepernick at 7th personally.  But I don't see Kaep going before pick 50.  If someone told you, you had a choice of Kaep in the 5th, Matt Ryan in the 6th, or Luck in the 7th?  What about Stafford in the 8th?  What if you wait even longer, and double up Russel Wilson with an Andy Dalton and it only cost you a 10/11th round pick?  I like Kaep too, but when looking at 'value' you have to consider it relative to the other options and how cheap you can get them.

As others have mentioned, due to the 49ers strengths as a running team and specifically on Defense, their scoring potential on a weekly basis will be slightly lower than other teams, which puts a ceiling to Kaeps upside.  In leagues where Passing TD's are 6pts, then his rushing 'value' drops even further, because he loses the 2 point advantage on his rushing TD's.

I see next year highly benefiting the patient.  If someone is willing to stream the QB position in 2013, playing matchups and cycling guys like Romo, Rivers, Eli, and Flacco, they might be able to stack their other positions, and only lose a marginal point spread to other QBs, if any at all.  Even with all that said, it still leaves Vick, Palmer, Big Ben, Freeman, Bradford and even more in the FA pool to choose from.  If Matt Flynn gets a starting job, Alex Smith as well... It just gets deeper.

[My Dinner With Andre]

 rraayy3, on 10 February 2013 - 08:21 PM, said:

The only thing that'll slow him down is the fact the 9ers have a good defense. He won't need to throw all day or pile up garbage time stats like Brees/Cam (among others) will.

I think he can definitely be a top 5 QB next year regardless. Love those rushing yards/TDs from QBs.

Or, the defense will get complacent because they have a good offense.  Kinda happened this year...

[rraayy3]

the defense finished 3rd overall, 4th vs the run, in an off year.

9ers offense was the best [yardage/game] in the playoffs ... so still plenty of upside for kaepernick either way.

[Ribobizert]

Kaepernick has arm stength, legs, can accurately make all the throws in the playbook, and the football IQ to join the elite tier of QBs.  I just don't see the 49ers turning him loose and letting him throw the ball as much as some of the other elite passers in the game. His ceiling is completely dependent on the 49ers play calling.  

You could argue that with Gore on the downside of his career they might throw a bit more, as James/Hunter both are unproven and smallish RBs. But given the way Harbaugh has been running the 49ers & his personality they will remain a running first team (their O-Line was built for that, a lot of maulers on it) so long as their defense remains dominant.  But even in a perfect fantasy scenario and they do let him air it out, with only 2/3rds of a season under center he would experience some growing pains. All in all he is probably a season or two away from being #1 if you are a Kaep believer.

Side note, the obvious trend towards mobile QBs will continue.  However, the thing that separates him from his mobile counterparts (RGIII, Russel Wilson, Vick, etc) is he is a bigger guy.  I might be foolish to say this but you don't worry about him & Cam getting hurt when they run.  So if you're a fantasy owner that is injury risk averse, Kaep is more draftable than other running QBs. I think the best x-factor for Kaep is harbaugh obviously LOVES the kid, check out pregame tape on how he treated Kaep vs Alex Smith, he believes in Kaep's greatness and will most likely let him loose as he continues to mature and play well.      

If you're in a dynasty/keeper league, he is worth a high draft pick.  His ability to score fantasy pts via running give him the chance to separate himself from the more conventional passers that dominate the current top teir QBs.  If you're talking non dynasty based league he's worth the wait to see if he falls to a bargain round, but the hype surrounding him will most likely make someone reach for him.  QB is maddd deep next year and the best strategy will be to wait and draft one/two of the QBs that will definitely fall in your draft, as anyone spending a top pick on a QB will not be picking a backup for a while as they will have to go grab RBs to make up for not taking one of the better RBs early (this theory is based on you playing with competitive owners and not your crazy brother-in-law that makes everyone go "huh?" on draft day).

[Proteus]

I think the hype train will be en fuego this summer.

I'd be surprised if you get him after the 3rd round by the time we hit Labor Day.

[rraayy3]

yup, pretty much lost any hope for value after that performance vs GB

[Point Shaver]

Nah, I'm not going to buy the hype on this guy come Aug.

[jnormy]

New weapon in Boldin to go along with Crabtree and Davis. The news just keeps getting better for Kaep's fantasy value...

Thoughts on how much it affects his value?

Edited by jnormy, 14 March 2013 - 09:10 AM.

[ludawg23]

Don't see much change to be honest, but Kaep's outlook already looks very positive for next year.  Boldin is still a good player and should be a reliable target for Kaep.

[jnormy]

Also stumbled upon this little tidbit this morning. This kind of dedication and drive to succeed can only be a good thing...

http://www.49erswebz...ompetitiveness/