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Jordan Zimmermann 2013 Outlook


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#1 David Light

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 03:45 AM

He seems to be going quite late in drafts considering his stellar year last year.  He is also only 26 and arguably yet to hit his prime.  Last year he had a 2.94 ERA with a 1.17 Whip - that's elite stuff.

On Rotowire, it has his average draft position at 111 though, which I think is really low.  Anyone have opinions on him - Or numbers that would suggest last year was lucky?

#2 Thespis721

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 07:36 AM

Not sure about numbers, but I owned him last year and I didn't see a reason why people would be down on him.  With Haren, he could learn some experience from a veteran and he was great for me.  I believe I remember his K rate being low.  

Either way, I had him for $13 last year and I expected to give him a contract (making him $18 in my league).  Then I saw that his average draft value was $10.  I must admit, Ks or no Ks, I was a little shocked.

#3 Orion Braun

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 11:29 AM

I think Zimmermann can provide some great value. Yahoo has him as the #25 SP, ADP of 113, going after Latos and Scherzer. Looking at some of the advanced metrics, nothing is screaming regression to me - 2012 LOB% and BABIP were both slightly better than career average, but 2012 HR/FB% is sustainable, FB velocity and SwStr% have increased the last two seasons. His K/9 and BB/9 are both fine. Plus, he ought to be fully recovered from the TJ surgery, so we can probably expect 200+ innings. I'll be targeting him in the 8ish round as a solid #2SP.

Projection: 14-7, 202 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 165 K
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#4 PRoSPx

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 12:29 PM

Latos and Scherzer I have ranked slightly above Zimmermann but all 3 of these guys will prove to be great values.

#5 klove42

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 12:43 PM

Thats way to low for him in Yahoo leagues, I remember last year ESPN has him around 120 and to see that his stock hasnt improved that much is very weird. He really did have a borderline elite season last year, and I want him in most of my leagues this year.
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#6 det_tigers

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 12:59 PM

And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.
8 Teams H2H 5x5 (R-HR-RBI-SB-AVG & W-SW-K-ERA-WHIP)
C: B.McCann
1B: P.Goldschmidt
2B: I.Kinsler
3B: A.Beltre
SS: E.Cabrera
OF: R.Braun - A.Rios - J.Bruce
Util & Bench: Y.Cespedes - J.Abreu - A.Rendon
SP: Y.Darvish - S.Strasburg - C.Hamels - J.Shields -  A.Sanchez - M.Latos - Y.Gallardo - M.Perez
RP: S.Romo - J.Papelbon - J.Soria - T.Hunter
12 Teams H2H 6x6 (R-H-HR-RBI-SB-AVG & IP-W-SW-K-ERA-WHIP)
C: S.Perez
1B: D.Ortiz
2B: R.Cano
3B: A.Ramirez
SS: E.Cabrera
OF: C.Gonzalez - C.Gomez - C.Beltran
Util & Bench: B.Belt - B.Miller - H.Pence
SP: M.Bumgarner - J.Shields - C.Hamels - G.Cole - H.Bailey - M.Pineda - A.Harang - J.Vargas - M.Perez
RP: M.Lindstrom - S.Santos - T.Hunter

#7 Orion Braun

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 01:19 PM

 det_tigers, on 11 February 2013 - 12:59 PM, said:

And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.

Actually he was tied for 14th most in the MLB in run support per start at 4.91. However, he only went 7IP in 9 of his 32 starts last year and never went more than 7. It'll be interesting to see if he has a longer leash this year, as that is what will help him generate a few more W's.
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#8 An Old Hippie

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:18 PM

 Orion Braun, on 11 February 2013 - 01:19 PM, said:

 det_tigers, on 11 February 2013 - 12:59 PM, said:

And he did not get good run support from the Nats. I can see him getting +15 W easily.

Actually he was tied for 14th most in the MLB in run support per start at 4.91. However, he only went 7IP in 9 of his 32 starts last year and never went more than 7. It'll be interesting to see if he has a longer leash this year, as that is what will help him generate a few more W's.

Wasn't this the second year after TJ surgery? The not going deep into games is what soured me on him last year even though every team that had him won the league. But if the second year idea is right how does that effect Strassburgh going into his second year? The Nats seem extremely cautious with starting pitching and now have the potential to have a lockdown bull pen for the 7th through 9th innings.

#9 dsw283

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:46 PM

I think they already said that they weren't going to have any restrictions if I'm not mistaken.  Although being a pitcher of his caliber, already having a TJ, and how young he is, I think they will still keep close to a 100 pc a game.  With the exception of a few, not many pitchers really throw more pitches than that in a game anyways. In reality, I think you can at least expect what he did on a per game basis last year, plus 4-5 extra games.

*This is pertaining to Strasburg btw*

Same applies for Zimmerman as well, you can expect some what of the same counting stats from him.  Of course the wins/losses will vary.

Edited by dsw283, 11 February 2013 - 02:48 PM.


#10 #1Stunna

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 02:56 PM

23 straight starts of 6+ innings last year, definitely one of those underappreciated pitchers who is just consistent as hell (Matt Cain Jr?). His K/9 isn't elite at 7.04, ranked 51st last year, but was better than some pitchers who might surprise you.  I'd take him all day as my #2, 2.5 pitcher, especially in my league where pitching usually falls a round or two later than ADP projections.
12 team H2H, 42-inning limit, $$$, League Champion 2007, 2010

C:  Matt Wieters
1B:  Miguel Cabrera
2B:  Jason Kipnis
3B:  Adrian Beltre
SS:  Elvis Andrus
IF:  Brett Lawrie
OF:  Ichiro Suzuki
OF:  Alex Rios
OF:  Matt Holliday
Util:  Edwin Encarnacion
BN:  Alex Presley, Brian Lahair, Yonder Alonso, Allen Craig (DL), Mike Carp (DL)

SP:  Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke, Corey Luebke, Jordan Zimmerman, Ricky Romero, Phil Hughes
RP:  Kenley Jansen, Javy Guerra, Jason Motte, Jim Johnson, Brad Lidge, Alfredo Aceves

#11 mjb03003

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 05:12 PM

Love this guy, and I especially love that he seems to be underrated. He'll wind up on all of my teams this year.

#12 Red Sox Nation

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 06:57 PM

Thank you CBS for ranking him 125th, I will glady "reach" and grab him in the 90's range to ensure I get him. As mentioned, wins are a fluke. He could win 18 this year, who knows. However, elite control is not a fluke. He has elite control and a good enough swinging strike % + high velocity to the point it shouldn't surprise if he puts it all together and finishes with over 180 k's. He will be an elite #2 sp and is worth a pick as high as round 6 in my eyes, but you can likely get him in the 7-10 range.

#13 Blood Brother

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 07:26 PM

Yep. Love his game. If he even gets a slight uptick in K's his value goes up that much more. Very, very consistent last year, which I love(Joe Morgan approves, to)
16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Jonathan Lucroy (MIL - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 3B)
SS - Jean Segura (MIL - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Matt Kemp (LAD - CF)
RF - Allen Craig (StL - 1B, LF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Matt Carpenter (StL - 1B, 2B, 3B, RF), Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw(DL), Cole Hamels(DL), Cliff Lee, James Shields, Jordan Zimmermann, Corey Kluber, Jered Weaver, Ivan Nova, Hiroki Kuroda, Enny Romero
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Sergio Santos, Carlos Martinez
Farm System: George Springer(HOU - OF), Andrew Heaney(Mia - SP),Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Ronald Guzman(TEX - 1B/OF), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Blake Snell(TB - SP), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Adalberto Mejia(SF - SP)

#14 Point Shaver

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 07:55 PM

His fantasy situation reminds me of Matt Cain a few years back; very reliable and you can get him late.

Edited by Point Shaver, 11 February 2013 - 07:55 PM.


#15 iAugust

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Posted 11 February 2013 - 08:13 PM

Yeah something that a lot of people (or at least I didn't) realize is how hard Zimmerman throws. He averaged 93.8mph on his fastball last season, good for 6th in the MLB. With someone who throws that hard, you would think their K% would be higher, but it turns out he actually pitches to contact by choice:

"“Before I had Tommy John, I was striking a lot of guys out. I would throw a lot of pitches. Once I came back from it, I told myself, ‘Let’s pitch to contact and let’s not strike as many guys out.’ That way I can stay in the game longer."

It's nice to know he is working on going deeper into games, and even nicer to know that he has the ability to control his game like that and that he has an underlying skillset as a strikeout pitcher. If he can put all of things together one season (Like Cain did last year with his K% jumping three percent to a career high) I think he has the stuff to finish as a top 10 pitcher.

Edited by iAugust, 11 February 2013 - 08:14 PM.


#16 klove42

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Posted 12 February 2013 - 06:22 AM

Espn actually ranks him around 70. I still think he is good there, but he doesn't have the value as he does in yahoo and CBS leagues
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#17 HR Pufnstuf

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 04:14 PM

Dead arm?

#18 2ndCitySox

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Posted 09 March 2013 - 04:20 PM

 HR Pufnstuf, on 09 March 2013 - 04:14 PM, said:

Dead arm?

No thanks, I'm full
I've got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.

#19 Tchaikovsky08

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 04:11 PM

Lot of pitches being hit hard today -- by the Marlins of all teams.  Really not liking what I've seen out of JZ so far.  This is the year he's supposed to take another step forward.

#20 TxBoy85

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Posted 04 April 2013 - 04:15 PM

Eh Marlins were due for a blow up game after not scoring a run the first few games. I've owned Zimm the previous 2 seasons and he will be a quiet beast this season.




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