107 replies to this topic

[grimsfield]

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:25 PM, said:

I'll re-iterate a point on pitchers - take the guys coming from TJS, and avoid the guys coming back from labrum repair/reconstruction.   There are pretty much career killers - the best-cases being guys that pitch 50-100 IP and then the shoulder flares up again.  I realize that redraft leagues would take 100 IP of good pitching, but that's the best-case scenario.   There a bunch of guys who never make it back, period. And the worst part is that the shoulder seems fine until you get past the 90+ percent effort stage - so reports sound encouraging for so long, then right up until major league games, then poof...mirage.

so i take it that you have no hope for pineda.

[holyBrowns]

grimsfield, on 13 May 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:25 PM, said:

I'll re-iterate a point on pitchers - take the guys coming from TJS, and avoid the guys coming back from labrum repair/reconstruction.   There are pretty much career killers - the best-cases being guys that pitch 50-100 IP and then the shoulder flares up again.  I realize that redraft leagues would take 100 IP of good pitching, but that's the best-case scenario.   There a bunch of guys who never make it back, period. And the worst part is that the shoulder seems fine until you get past the 90+ percent effort stage - so reports sound encouraging for so long, then right up until major league games, then poof...mirage.

so i take it that you have no hope for pineda.

Hasn't there been nothing but good news on Pineda? Touching mid 90s and feeling "great"?

[grimsfield]

holyBrowns, on 13 May 2013 - 03:34 PM, said:

grimsfield, on 13 May 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:25 PM, said:

I'll re-iterate a point on pitchers - take the guys coming from TJS, and avoid the guys coming back from labrum repair/reconstruction.   There are pretty much career killers - the best-cases being guys that pitch 50-100 IP and then the shoulder flares up again.  I realize that redraft leagues would take 100 IP of good pitching, but that's the best-case scenario.   There a bunch of guys who never make it back, period. And the worst part is that the shoulder seems fine until you get past the 90+ percent effort stage - so reports sound encouraging for so long, then right up until major league games, then poof...mirage.

so i take it that you have no hope for pineda.

Hasn't there been nothing but good news on Pineda? Touching mid 90s and feeling "great"?

well rotoraysfan seems to believe that all pitchers coming back from labrum tears are pretty much done.  doesn't matter if they look good coming back. its a "mirage". I just wanted to see how he specifically felt about pineda.

[RotoRaysfan]

holyBrowns, on 13 May 2013 - 03:34 PM, said:

grimsfield, on 13 May 2013 - 03:33 PM, said:

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:25 PM, said:

I'll re-iterate a point on pitchers - take the guys coming from TJS, and avoid the guys coming back from labrum repair/reconstruction.   There are pretty much career killers - the best-cases being guys that pitch 50-100 IP and then the shoulder flares up again.  I realize that redraft leagues would take 100 IP of good pitching, but that's the best-case scenario.   There a bunch of guys who never make it back, period.    And the worst part is that the shoulder seems fine until you get past the 90+ percent effort stage - so reports sound encouraging for so long, then right up until major league games, then poof...mirage.

so i take it that you have no hope for pineda.

Hasn't there been nothing but good news on Pineda? Touching mid 90s and feeling "great"?

That's the thing, though - all the guys like Young, Webb, Johan, Escobar - they feel great until they hit real game time situations (when you go from 90 percent to 100 percent) - and then poof, either as they are getting ready to hit the MLB, or after 50-100 total IP.

Now, the big catch - if it wasn't a labrum reconstruction, then was it a major or minor repair?   Doc Halladay is a great case for this - if they just take out some spurs, and the labrum doesn't need major work, then he's got hope.  But, in his case, he's also in his mid-30's, with a ton or mileage.   If he gets the labrum repaired, I'm mourning his departure (I have him in a dynasty).  But I digress....

Here, with Hudson and Pineda, was the labrum repair "minor"?  Or was it a full redo?    In full redos/major repairs - pretty much 100 percent done, best-case you get 100 or so IP's (but most of time, you are done).   Even with minor repairs where the labrum is mostly intact, there are some cases where they get 1-2 seasons.    And, with guys where they don't touch the labrum (Casey Jannsen is Exhibit A, since they only shaved the bone <clavicle>), then there's real hope.  

If it was a major repair, or the full reconstruction, yeah, not hopeful.   It's been so long, I've forgotten which one it was.

P.S.  Saw that Hudson had TJS.  So, obviously goes without saying be hopeful.

[RotoRaysfan]

So, did some catch-up - Pineda had the labrum repair, but the rotator cuff (SLAP muscles) were not affected.  That is the "minor" repair - it still offers a worrisome tale - about 2/3 of the guys don't make it back.  But, there are guys like Ted Lilly & Roger Clemens did make it back under similar circumstances.   I'd throw out the reports on Pineda feeling great as background noise - the pitchers all do until they get to the MLB level, and crank it all the way up to 100 percent.  But, in his favor, he has the one circumstance where the 99 percent death sentence doesn't apply - because they didn't have to do a "major" repair (1 in 3 isn't great odds with the minor repair, but way better than 2 guys in 25+ years).

I'd still prefer the TJS guys 10x over a labrum repair, given the above, but I hope the above helps.

[holyBrowns]

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

So, did some catch-up - Pineda had the labrum repair, but the rotator cuff (SLAP muscles) were not affected.  That is the "minor" repair - it still offers a worrisome tale - about 2/3 of the guys don't make it back.  But, there are guys like Ted Lilly & Roger Clemens did make it back under similar circumstances.   I'd throw out the reports on Pineda feeling great as background noise - the pitchers all do until they get to the MLB level, and crank it all the way up to 100 percent.  But, in his favor, he has the one circumstance where the 99 percent death sentence doesn't apply - because they didn't have to do a "major" repair (1 in 3 isn't great odds with the minor repair, but way better than 2 guys in 25+ years).

I'd still prefer the TJS guys 10x over a labrum repair, given the above, but I hope the above helps.

You seem to know a lot about shoulders... I had Andrews do surgery on my shoulder while I was in high school, my labrum was stretched but it wasn't torn, I think that's considered a partial tear.  He basically used heat to shrivel up my tendons like bacon (which isn't how they do the surgery anymore, unfortunately).  Would that big a minor or major injury for a big league pitcher?

[Z06vette]

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

So, did some catch-up - Pineda had the labrum repair, but the rotator cuff (SLAP muscles) were not affected.  That is the "minor" repair - it still offers a worrisome tale - about 2/3 of the guys don't make it back.  But, there are guys like Ted Lilly & Roger Clemens did make it back under similar circumstances.   I'd throw out the reports on Pineda feeling great as background noise - the pitchers all do until they get to the MLB level, and crank it all the way up to 100 percent.  But, in his favor, he has the one circumstance where the 99 percent death sentence doesn't apply - because they didn't have to do a "major" repair (1 in 3 isn't great odds with the minor repair, but way better than 2 guys in 25+ years).

I'd still prefer the TJS guys 10x over a labrum repair, given the above, but I hope the above helps.

So what are your thoughts on Pineda's velocity readings -  93 to 95 sounds good this early in the game, no? More background noise?

[RotoRaysfan]

Z06vette, on 13 May 2013 - 04:08 PM, said:

RotoRaysfan, on 13 May 2013 - 03:52 PM, said:

So, did some catch-up - Pineda had the labrum repair, but the rotator cuff (SLAP muscles) were not affected.  That is the "minor" repair - it still offers a worrisome tale - about 2/3 of the guys don't make it back.  But, there are guys like Ted Lilly &amp; Roger Clemens did make it back under similar circumstances.   I'd throw out the reports on Pineda feeling great as background noise - the pitchers all do until they get to the MLB level, and crank it all the way up to 100 percent.  But, in his favor, he has the one circumstance where the 99 percent death sentence doesn't apply - because they didn't have to do a "major" repair (1 in 3 isn't great odds with the minor repair, but way better than 2 guys in 25+ years).

I'd still prefer the TJS guys 10x over a labrum repair, given the above, but I hope the above helps.

So what are your thoughts on Pineda's velocity readings -  93 to 95 sounds good this early in the game, no? More background noise?

The problem is what happens to the shoulder once you put some MLB wear & tear.  There are some guys who right away can't ramp it up, and never make it back.   So it's good he's not one of those guys.  But, there's a whole other set of guys who feel great, get back to the Show, and break down once they hit 50-100 MLB IP (Chris Young, Johan, Meche, etc.).  

Because it's the "minor" repair (where the RC was not touched), then there's more hope - that is the more important take-home point.  There are still long odds, but at least it's a realistic hope, as opposed to what happens when you have to do the major repair/full reconstruction. 1 in 3 isn't great to return to former levels, but way better than near-100 percent being done.

holyBrowns - I don't operate, so it sounds like the "minor" - but honestly, those are details that are beyond me.   I know the anatomic principles and the rationale, but since I don't make into the OR, you're asking the wrong guy.