17 replies to this topic

[VeganZombies]

I have no real understanding of this. If we expect an average team to be exactly zero z-score in each cat, but we decide to punt one category and assuming we get perfect conversion and we get to -10 z-score in 1 cat. That would mean you get 1.25 extra for every category you don't punt.

That looks nice on paper, but what isn't clear is how much that increases your overall categories won. How much is 1.25 worth vs 0 in win rate? if you're losing .5 of a point (assuming 50-50 win if you're average vs average) do you gain back what is .5/8 of a point per category or more to justify sacrificing one category?

This can also be applied to inconsistent players. Say we talk about someone being inconsistent and losing you in a cat or 2 in a week, but what about the times that they're inconsistent and because they happen to be hot they win you a cat or 2 in another week. Does inconsistency cost you points on average or does it win you points.

[pnoozi]

Sometimes trying to save one category will result in hurting your ability to compete in several others.  So you might "punt" that one category.  It doesn't mean that punting one category will always help you in others.

Let's say your team is struggling mightily in three-pointers.  The only way you can attempt to compete in the 3PTM category is by rostering a bunch of three-point specialists like Steve Novak, Kyle Korver, Ray Allen, etc. who don't really contribute in other categories.  Since this would be obviously stupid, and would cause you to lose every week, you'd "punt" three-pointers.

It depends on the team.

Edited by pnoozi, 14 February 2013 - 09:31 AM.

[Straight Outta CPT]

pnoozi, on 14 February 2013 - 09:25 AM, said:

Sometimes trying to save one category will result in hurting your ability to compete in several others.  So you might "punt" that one category.  It doesn't mean that punting one category will always help you in others.

Let's say your team is struggling mightily in three-pointers.  The only way you can attempt to compete in the 3PTM category is by rostering a bunch of three-point specialists like Steve Novak, Kyle Korver, Ray Allen, etc. who don't really contribute in other categories.  Since this would be obviously stupid, and would cause you to lose every week, you'd "punt" three-pointers.

It depends on the team.

Since the Lou Williams injury, Korver has been a 9-cat player.

[pnoozi]

Straight Outta CPT, on 14 February 2013 - 01:45 PM, said:

pnoozi, on 14 February 2013 - 09:25 AM, said:

Sometimes trying to save one category will result in hurting your ability to compete in several others.  So you might "punt" that one category.  It doesn't mean that punting one category will always help you in others.

Let's say your team is struggling mightily in three-pointers.  The only way you can attempt to compete in the 3PTM category is by rostering a bunch of three-point specialists like Steve Novak, Kyle Korver, Ray Allen, etc. who don't really contribute in other categories.  Since this would be obviously stupid, and would cause you to lose every week, you'd "punt" three-pointers.

It depends on the team.

Since the Lou Williams injury, Korver has been a 9-cat player.

Yea maybe.  He's back on the bench now though.

[nosoup4crr]

The idea isn't to sacrifice one category to become slightly more competitive in every other category.  The idea is to sacrifice one category to become substantially more effective in a few.

[VeganZombies]

Sure, but the question is does punting have a net increase on wins or net decrease. There seems to be no evidence on this based on the data. There is just arguments on how it should be theoretically done.

[nosoup4crr]

proving that it leads to more wins is a job for a statistician with access, not a rotoworld poster.  You can't really blame us for not having that info, haha.  All we can say is that it leads to more flexibility.  Assuming everyone drafts by overall value and players keep that value, punting a category doesn't net you any more value than you'd have otherwise.  What it does do is give you more flexibility to use in other categories.

[VeganZombies]

Sure, but people make objective claims like you shouldn't punt and you should punt, but there seems to be nothing to support either claim.

[Joeklebba]

Just my opinion but you win leagues by being great at 5-6 categories, not by being good at 9 categories. Thus you sacrifice being good in certain areas to maximize your strength in other areas.

[markdash]

I think, as with many number-related issues, the best way is to go to BBM. League average is 0.7 blocks per game per player (0 Z units). A team punting blocks might expect to get 0.3 blocks per game. This value (0.3 per game) is equivalent to a Z score of about -0.7. Multiplied by 10 (10 player per team) means you will gain 7 Z units across the other 8 categories given perfect efficiency at converting punted stats into other 8 categories. 7/8 = 0.875 Z units per category. If you are a 0.875 in each category other than blocks, and are a -7 in blocks, that would mean you are an extreme underdog to ever win blocks (like 0.000000000001 slim). However, your ability to turn blocks into the other categories means you are an 81% chance to win each other category. Across 8 categories, this means you will win, on average, 6.47 games per week. This obviously compares favorably to the balanced team's average, which is 4.5 categories per week.

Clearly, your ability to punt completely and to maximize your distribution to other categories is extremely variable, so this is probably a best-case scenario. More likely is that you're favored to win 5.5-6 games per week which is still pretty damn good.

Feel free to check my math/logic on this.

[markdash]

Or to address your OP directly, if you were able to convert 10 Zs evenly into the other 8 categories for 1.25 Z per category, you would win an average of 7.15 categories per week. I calculated this using the NORMSDIST function on Excel.

That said, converting 10Zs evenly like that is a total pipe dream. My H2H team, which is punting threes, is -5.3 in that category.  Across 8 other categories that would be 0.66 per cat, for a total of 5.96 wins per week.

Edited by markdash, 14 February 2013 - 04:02 PM.

[VeganZombies]

Thanks. but what you're saying seems to be supporting the data that punting is in general effective if you get get good enough conversation. Basketball might be a bit bad at the conversion factor, but baseball might be interesting. Regardless it's probably a bad idea to punt 3-4 cats, but 1 maybe 2 might be ideal.

Edited by VeganZombies, 14 February 2013 - 04:27 PM.

[markdash]

VeganZombies, on 14 February 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

Thanks. but what you're saying seems to be supporting the data that punting is in general effective if you get get good enough conversation. Basketball might be a bit bad at the conversion factor, but baseball might be interesting. Regardless it's probably a bad idea to punt 3-4 cats, but 1 maybe 2 might be ideal.

If you can get really high conversion then punting multiple cats is still a good idea, but there are two problems with this approach:
1) If you run up against someone doing the same strategy you're down to a coinflip
2) It's very difficult to get a first-round bye because you're winning every week 6-3 at the most, most of the time it's 5-4.

I think basketball is actually pretty good at conversion, at least when it comes to threes and blocks. Other categories are harder. What are the most common punting categories in baseball? I would guess steals and saves in a 5x5 league.

[rdubs23]

VeganZombies, on 14 February 2013 - 02:24 PM, said:

Sure, but the question is does punting have a net increase on wins or net decrease. There seems to be no evidence on this based on the data. There is just arguments on how it should be theoretically done.

For what its worth, I punt rebounds and blocks, I have yet to lose Points, Assists, 3PM, or FT% so far this year, if I win one of Steals, TOs, or FG%, I win the week, very simple.

[VeganZombies]

markdash, on 14 February 2013 - 04:44 PM, said:

VeganZombies, on 14 February 2013 - 04:26 PM, said:

Thanks. but what you're saying seems to be supporting the data that punting is in general effective if you get get good enough conversation. Basketball might be a bit bad at the conversion factor, but baseball might be interesting. Regardless it's probably a bad idea to punt 3-4 cats, but 1 maybe 2 might be ideal.

If you can get really high conversion then punting multiple cats is still a good idea, but there are two problems with this approach:
1) If you run up against someone doing the same strategy you're down to a coinflip
2) It's very difficult to get a first-round bye because you're winning every week 6-3 at the most, most of the time it's 5-4.

I think basketball is actually pretty good at conversion, at least when it comes to threes and blocks. Other categories are harder. What are the most common punting categories in baseball? I would guess steals and saves in a 5x5 league.

Actually I built a team in baseball where I punt runs/hr/rbi on monday and stacked pitching, sb, I got -15 in hr, rbi and -6 in runs. It's extreme, I know nothing about baseball so I was just testing out punting in H2H leagues.

It also matters what cat you punt from what I can tell. Blocks/Steals and 3s, fg% and ft% hurt more per standard deviation you're bad at it. If you're -10 sd in points you can still win in it purely by volume.

Edited by VeganZombies, 14 February 2013 - 05:09 PM.

[DrGonzo]

Sorry to go semi-OT  but has anyone had any success with punting in roto leagues? My team is well below average in FT% and strong in most other cats. I have recently been offered Dwight for just about nothing. Is it possible to win or at least finish top 2 or 3 by scoring a 1 in a particular category? This is a keeper league so i would probably need to keep this strategy going when selecting my keepers.

[sojubomb]

punting also affects trade value.  For example I'm punting FT% and i was able to get Thad young who's producing almost 1st round value without FT% counted for a midrounder in klay thompson.

Edited by sojubomb, 07 March 2013 - 06:54 AM.

[fsunoles46]

First time playing and its worked very well for me albeit in a semi-competitive league. Agree with the post above though, easy to steal a valuable player if youre punting the category they are deficient in. Just make sure your team is strong in the other categories though