came back and had a good season. after a healthy full season can he even do better.
1
Jake Peavy 2013 Outlook
Started by
ballfan4141
, Feb 15 2013 12:45 PM
127 replies to this topic
#2
Stanford410
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 12:57 PM
If he stays healthy all year, he could be a solid pick. I'm targeting him before our league locks keepers to take a risk on him this season.
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#3
myzto
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:00 PM
I can't trust his health and in my league I have to draft him like an upper echelon pitcher to acquire him.
#4
Nick Mitchell
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:28 PM
I don't know what his cost will be-- I haven't participated in any Yahoo auction mocks, and since there really is no real way to gauge value for a 14-team league since Yahoo doesn't even have 14 team mock drafts for auction (or even standard), I don't know how that would work. The predicted price I will guess is around $20 or so... but that is just going by similar pitchers from past seasons, and off of a $260 budget. So I am being broad.
If I could nab him for $10-$14.... maybe. He carries way too much risk and not a lot of reward. If you get the best out of him, it still may only be #3 starter stats and in that case, there are much cheaper types of pitchers to be had in auctions, and probably much cheaper pitchers to be had in standard/snake drafts.
A guy I would prefer to a Peavy, for example... just one name... Ricky Romero. He'll be much cheaper in most leagues, carries the same risk more or less but for different reasons, and very well could and probably will outproduce Peavy.
I don't know, though. There's always a chance that Peavy falls in drafts, has a bad spring training, I dunno. There's a chance he winds up being a $10 pick and that could be a bargain if he can eclipse 200 innings again next year (which I just don't see happening, which is what dampens his value for me... ). Should he land on the DL though, I don't think I would even hold a guy like Peavy for very long at all- and definitely not for an extended period of time if the recovery wasn't going as planned, as I only have 2 DL spots to work with at once (and that seems to be the standard with most leagues too).
He's a guy who would be a nice mid-end game pick in standard drafts, or a nice $8-$14 pick...but he may cost a lot more. Or people may shy away for all of the reasons I just listed, and many others will also list. Everyone is aware he is one throw away from having no shoulder or something again... I think he's extremely risky for his cost, and dare I say it... I would rather have Liriano for $5 than Peavy for $15, given that Peavy was coming off of a few horribly injury-riddled years before last season's dominant effort.
Liriano is now looking at a reduced contract in PIT and no gaurantee he will stay healthy, either.... but he could wind up pulling a Peavy and throwing 200+ innings (or pulling 'em out of his a**... i still am amazed Peavy did what, 222 innings last season?... and that's why I can't accept the idea of him holding up all year).
I don't know. I think Peavy's upside is what we saw last season. Pitching games in US Cellular isn't helpful really, although he did pitch well at home last year if I'm thinking right (or maybe that was Sale, who very well may have been undefeated at home or close to it.... anyone remember or want to clarify? I'll check baseball-ref eventually now...).
This all being said... watch Peavy and Sale's ADP and ADC heading into the drafts.... I would wager that Peavy somehow winds up being overvalued, and costing more aucton budget $ or a higher pick than Sale will... but maybe I'm just hoping that people are fearful of this injury prone tag that everyone has placed on Sale. I'd much rather risk it with Sale than Peavy too, even if I had to go $20 for Sale vs. $15 for Jake.
My input and some comparrisons, just for the sake of how I view Peavy... I am from Chicago, and actually a big Cubs fan, but also a huge fan of both Sale (went to the college my brother goes to now, FLA Gulf) and Peavy (always was a fan, and I think his comeback last year was unbelievable and admirable, and probably made Brandon Webb wanna cry and pee). I like the Sox squad for fantasy much more than the Cubs'... let me just say that.
I always tend to pick Sox players and follow them closer around spring training (as far as fantasy goes).
I just don't trust Peavy much at all. He might wind up being a great sell-high type of player, though, is my one last thought.... if he's pitching great into May or June and still healthy, there's a good return to likely be had... and also a chance he goes down in the 2nd half. Always a GM or two out there who will overpay for a pitcher who is producing while being rode like a horse.... the Sox will ride Peavy, that's one thing I can expect. But how long will the horse last before he turns to glue?
That's the question. I would draft him if only to hope to cash in around May or June if he came very cheap, but I expect him to go for at least $20 in my auction league, if not more. He went for $15 last year and hadn't done much.... so yeah.
If I could nab him for $10-$14.... maybe. He carries way too much risk and not a lot of reward. If you get the best out of him, it still may only be #3 starter stats and in that case, there are much cheaper types of pitchers to be had in auctions, and probably much cheaper pitchers to be had in standard/snake drafts.
A guy I would prefer to a Peavy, for example... just one name... Ricky Romero. He'll be much cheaper in most leagues, carries the same risk more or less but for different reasons, and very well could and probably will outproduce Peavy.
I don't know, though. There's always a chance that Peavy falls in drafts, has a bad spring training, I dunno. There's a chance he winds up being a $10 pick and that could be a bargain if he can eclipse 200 innings again next year (which I just don't see happening, which is what dampens his value for me... ). Should he land on the DL though, I don't think I would even hold a guy like Peavy for very long at all- and definitely not for an extended period of time if the recovery wasn't going as planned, as I only have 2 DL spots to work with at once (and that seems to be the standard with most leagues too).
He's a guy who would be a nice mid-end game pick in standard drafts, or a nice $8-$14 pick...but he may cost a lot more. Or people may shy away for all of the reasons I just listed, and many others will also list. Everyone is aware he is one throw away from having no shoulder or something again... I think he's extremely risky for his cost, and dare I say it... I would rather have Liriano for $5 than Peavy for $15, given that Peavy was coming off of a few horribly injury-riddled years before last season's dominant effort.
Liriano is now looking at a reduced contract in PIT and no gaurantee he will stay healthy, either.... but he could wind up pulling a Peavy and throwing 200+ innings (or pulling 'em out of his a**... i still am amazed Peavy did what, 222 innings last season?... and that's why I can't accept the idea of him holding up all year).
I don't know. I think Peavy's upside is what we saw last season. Pitching games in US Cellular isn't helpful really, although he did pitch well at home last year if I'm thinking right (or maybe that was Sale, who very well may have been undefeated at home or close to it.... anyone remember or want to clarify? I'll check baseball-ref eventually now...).
This all being said... watch Peavy and Sale's ADP and ADC heading into the drafts.... I would wager that Peavy somehow winds up being overvalued, and costing more aucton budget $ or a higher pick than Sale will... but maybe I'm just hoping that people are fearful of this injury prone tag that everyone has placed on Sale. I'd much rather risk it with Sale than Peavy too, even if I had to go $20 for Sale vs. $15 for Jake.
My input and some comparrisons, just for the sake of how I view Peavy... I am from Chicago, and actually a big Cubs fan, but also a huge fan of both Sale (went to the college my brother goes to now, FLA Gulf) and Peavy (always was a fan, and I think his comeback last year was unbelievable and admirable, and probably made Brandon Webb wanna cry and pee). I like the Sox squad for fantasy much more than the Cubs'... let me just say that.
I always tend to pick Sox players and follow them closer around spring training (as far as fantasy goes).I just don't trust Peavy much at all. He might wind up being a great sell-high type of player, though, is my one last thought.... if he's pitching great into May or June and still healthy, there's a good return to likely be had... and also a chance he goes down in the 2nd half. Always a GM or two out there who will overpay for a pitcher who is producing while being rode like a horse.... the Sox will ride Peavy, that's one thing I can expect. But how long will the horse last before he turns to glue?
That's the question. I would draft him if only to hope to cash in around May or June if he came very cheap, but I expect him to go for at least $20 in my auction league, if not more. He went for $15 last year and hadn't done much.... so yeah.
Team #1:
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B James Loney, 2B Nick Franklin, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Kyle Blanks, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Domonic Brown, OF Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Gerardo Parra, OF Kelly Johnson, UTL Evan Gattis
BN: 1B,3B Chris Johnson, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Rickie Weeks, OF Denard Span, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (8- any kind) SP Johnny Cueto, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Tim Lincecum, MR Kenley Jansen, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson, MR Carter Capps, MR Darren O'Day
BN: SP Felix Hernandez, SP R.A. Dickey, SP Mike Minor
DL: (2 allotted slots at once) SP Michael Pineda
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG%/W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Kyle Blanks, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lorenzo Cain, OF Adam Jones, UTL Todd Frazier
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheco,1B,LF,RF Jeff Baker, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders, LF,RF Lucas Duda
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Mike Minor (SP) ; RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP); P (4- any kind) P Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP) , P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP), P Brandon League (RP)
BN: Jose Fernandez (SP), Rick Porcello (SP), Hector Santiago (SP,RP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy
14-team/25-man (mixed) roster roto-auction redraft league [3rd Season, Defending Champ] (standard 5x5 scoring w/ OBP in place of AVG)
C Willin Rosario, 1B James Loney, 2B Nick Franklin, 3B Miguel Cabrera, SS Starlin Castro, IF Kyle Blanks, OF (4 starting OF slots, not position-specific) OF Domonic Brown, OF Jacoby Ellsbury, OF Gerardo Parra, OF Kelly Johnson, UTL Evan Gattis
BN: 1B,3B Chris Johnson, 1B Brandon Belt, 2B Rickie Weeks, OF Denard Span, OF Wil Myers [N/A]
P (8- any kind) SP Johnny Cueto, SP Hisashi Iwakuma, SP Tim Lincecum, MR Kenley Jansen, MR Bobby Parnell, MR Jim Henderson, MR Carter Capps, MR Darren O'Day
BN: SP Felix Hernandez, SP R.A. Dickey, SP Mike Minor
DL: (2 allotted slots at once) SP Michael Pineda
----
Team #2:
14-team/28-man (mixed) roster roto-snake redraft league [Inaugural Season] (7x7 scoring <R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBP, & SLG%/W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, & QS> and var. position-specific starting slots)
C Willin Rosario, 1B Adam Dunn, 2B Jason Kipnis, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, SS Jean Segura, CI Kyle Blanks, MI Everth Cabrera, LF Gerardo Parra, CF Andrew McCutchen, RF Lorenzo Cain, OF Adam Jones, UTL Todd Frazier
BN: C,3B,1B Jordan Pacheco,1B,LF,RF Jeff Baker, LF,CF,RF Michael Saunders, LF,RF Lucas Duda
SP (2): Felix Hernandez (SP), Mike Minor (SP) ; RP (3): Joe Nathan (RP), Ernesto Frieri (RP), Fernando Rodney (RP); P (4- any kind) P Hisashi Iwakuma (SP,RP) , P Lance Lynn (SP,RP), P Kevin Gregg (RP), P Brandon League (RP)
BN: Jose Fernandez (SP), Rick Porcello (SP), Hector Santiago (SP,RP)
DL: (3 allotted slots at once) SP Brandon Beachy
#5
malta69
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:46 PM
While he helped me win a roto title last year and I've always been a fan, you'd really have to be one serious gambler to invest what it will cost to land him this year.
I saw on another site that last year was the first time since 2007 that Peavy made it through 30 plus starts.
That's a mind numbing statistic right there!
I saw on another site that last year was the first time since 2007 that Peavy made it through 30 plus starts.
That's a mind numbing statistic right there!
Bases...
2008 Extra Base Hit Dynasty League Champion - The Inaugural Season
Foots...
'06, '07, '08 & '09 Boozers & Losers League Champ
2008 Extra Base Hit Dynasty League Champion - The Inaugural Season
Foots...
'06, '07, '08 & '09 Boozers & Losers League Champ
#6
Stanford410
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 01:49 PM
I'd draft a non-playing Jamie Moyer before I drafted Ricky Romero.
SF Giants Fan.
#7
SurlyRobot
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 03:57 PM
I'd love to have this guy on my team but like people have said he is not going to be anywhere near as cheap to get as he was last year. One thing that worried me last year was he seemed to shake his pitching arm a lot while he's on the mound like something was bugging his arm or shoulder and he still pitched over 200 innings, I would be very concerned investing a huge amount in a guy like this.
#8
ssmarsh
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Posted 15 February 2013 - 11:01 PM
I have him for $7 in AL only and will be keeping him.
10 team, AL only, auction, keeper. Weekly roster moves, monthly access to FA's. We count holds as save/2. Players who qualify at DH can play OF.
C - C.Ianetta ($8), C.Stewart ($1)
1B - N.Swisher ($16); 3B - K.Youkilis ($11); CO - P.Konerko ($27)
2B - D.Pedroia ($24) ; SS - Y.Escobar ($11); MI - K.Johnson ($12)
OF - N.Cruz ($21), M.Morse ($21), T.Hunter ($11), M.Joyce ($8), J.Maxwell ($3)
DH - L.Cain ($11)
SP - J.Verlander ($32), J.Peavy ($7), E.Santana ($6), P.Hughes ($6), M.Buehrle ($4), J.Masterson ($1)
RP - J.Johnson ($12), S.Delabar ($4), D.O'Day ($0)
Bench - M.DeRosa ($0), H.Conger ($0), J.Iglesias ($0), L.Overbay ($0), P.Humber ($0), D.Smyly ($1), S.Kazmir ($0)
C - C.Ianetta ($8), C.Stewart ($1)
1B - N.Swisher ($16); 3B - K.Youkilis ($11); CO - P.Konerko ($27)
2B - D.Pedroia ($24) ; SS - Y.Escobar ($11); MI - K.Johnson ($12)
OF - N.Cruz ($21), M.Morse ($21), T.Hunter ($11), M.Joyce ($8), J.Maxwell ($3)
DH - L.Cain ($11)
SP - J.Verlander ($32), J.Peavy ($7), E.Santana ($6), P.Hughes ($6), M.Buehrle ($4), J.Masterson ($1)
RP - J.Johnson ($12), S.Delabar ($4), D.O'Day ($0)
Bench - M.DeRosa ($0), H.Conger ($0), J.Iglesias ($0), L.Overbay ($0), P.Humber ($0), D.Smyly ($1), S.Kazmir ($0)
#9
Neymar
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Posted 16 February 2013 - 02:12 PM
I think he's plenty cheap right now. Being drafted around Morrow/Kennedy/Haren/Samardzjia/Lince/J. Johnson/Lester.
Think I like him better than all of those guys. Risk involved with every one of them.
Think I like him better than all of those guys. Risk involved with every one of them.
#10
wvufan1988
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Posted 16 February 2013 - 04:23 PM
This is a guy who was finally healthy last year, and put up great numbers (194 k's, good ERA). I think it's okay to be excited about a guy like Peavy. Obviously there is a risk with him, but he'll put up another good season again this year
12 Team H2H 24 out of 28 Keep
C-Posey
1B-Freeman
2B- Altuve
SS- Hanley Rameriz
3B-Sandoval
OF- Stanton, Choo, B.J Upton,
UT- Youkilis, Swisher, Cespedes
Bench: Chris Carter
P- Weaver, Parker, Cain, Wilson, Cueto, Hudson, Niese, Peavy
Closer/RP- Mo, Soriano. Holland,
Bench- Beachy
Categories:
Runs, RBI's, SB's, Average, HR
ERA, WHIP, Wins, Saves, K's
C-Posey
1B-Freeman
2B- Altuve
SS- Hanley Rameriz
3B-Sandoval
OF- Stanton, Choo, B.J Upton,
UT- Youkilis, Swisher, Cespedes
Bench: Chris Carter
P- Weaver, Parker, Cain, Wilson, Cueto, Hudson, Niese, Peavy
Closer/RP- Mo, Soriano. Holland,
Bench- Beachy
Categories:
Runs, RBI's, SB's, Average, HR
ERA, WHIP, Wins, Saves, K's
#11
cs3
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Posted 18 February 2013 - 01:20 AM
Nick Mitchell, on 15 February 2013 - 01:28 PM, said:
A guy I would prefer to a Peavy, for example... just one name... Ricky Romero. He'll be much cheaper in most leagues, carries the same risk more or less but for different reasons, and very well could and probably will outproduce Peavy.
#12
calzonesays
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Posted 25 March 2013 - 02:29 PM
I know normally to ignore the "Best shape of my life" spring training nonsense. But Peavy said his doctors told him he wouldnt regain full strength in the shoulder until 2 years following surgery. 2 Years following surgery is right now. He says his velocity is up from last year and he's throwing harder than even before he got injured.
#13
TribeFoo
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 01:38 PM
Looking real sharp so far. 5K in the first two innings and only one base runner.
#14
FML
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 01:39 PM
Don't want to jinx but dealing so far.
THAT SENTENCE HAD TOO MANY SYLLABLES! APOLOGIZE!
#15
Travdaddy10
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 01:56 PM
FML, on 03 April 2013 - 01:39 PM, said:
Don't want to jinx but dealing so far.
You shouldn't have mentioned anything. Vicedio doesn't call off Alexei which results in needless baserunner and more pitches. 2 errors by Vicedio and an unearned run.
Edited by Travdaddy10, 03 April 2013 - 01:57 PM.
10 team H2H - Keep 4
C-Jesus Montero, 1B-Votto(keeper), 2B-Aluve, 3B-Headley, SS-Tulo(keeper), OF1-Kemp(keeper), OF2-Cargo(keeper), OF3-Choo, UT-Ike Davis
Bench-Tyler Flowers, Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Mike Moustakas, Austin Jackson, Jhony Peralta
SP1-Strasburg, SP2-Gio Gonzalez, SP3-Jordan Zimmerman, SP4-Matt Harvery, SP5-Brett Anderson, SP6-Peavey, SP7-Vargas
RP1-Chapman, RP2-Street
Bench-Lannan, Miley, Garland, Harrell, Hernandez(TB), Kazmir, Maurer, Peacock, Slowey, Cishek, Fiers, Fujikawa, League, Wily Peralta, Veras
10 team H2H - Keep 3
C-Wieters, 1B-Votto(keeper), 2B-Altuve, 3B-Zimmerman, SS-Tulo(keeper), OF1- Adam Jones(keeper), OF2-Choo, OF3-Ellsbury, UT-Craig
Bench- Ike Davis, Belt, Alonso, Rutledge, Lorenzo Cain, Kubel, Carl Crawford, Chooch Ruiz
SP1-Greinke SP2-Jordan Zimmerman SP3-Peavey SP4-Kyle Lohse SP5-Matt Harvey SP6-Josh Beckett SP7-Doug Fister
RP1-Greg Holland RP2-Mitchell Boggs
Bench- Volquez, Chris Tillman, Lackey, Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Griffen, Iwakuma, Happ, Kazmir, Rafael Betancourt, Hernandez(TB), Fujikawa, Corbin
C-Jesus Montero, 1B-Votto(keeper), 2B-Aluve, 3B-Headley, SS-Tulo(keeper), OF1-Kemp(keeper), OF2-Cargo(keeper), OF3-Choo, UT-Ike Davis
Bench-Tyler Flowers, Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt, Matt Carpenter, Mike Moustakas, Austin Jackson, Jhony Peralta
SP1-Strasburg, SP2-Gio Gonzalez, SP3-Jordan Zimmerman, SP4-Matt Harvery, SP5-Brett Anderson, SP6-Peavey, SP7-Vargas
RP1-Chapman, RP2-Street
Bench-Lannan, Miley, Garland, Harrell, Hernandez(TB), Kazmir, Maurer, Peacock, Slowey, Cishek, Fiers, Fujikawa, League, Wily Peralta, Veras
10 team H2H - Keep 3
C-Wieters, 1B-Votto(keeper), 2B-Altuve, 3B-Zimmerman, SS-Tulo(keeper), OF1- Adam Jones(keeper), OF2-Choo, OF3-Ellsbury, UT-Craig
Bench- Ike Davis, Belt, Alonso, Rutledge, Lorenzo Cain, Kubel, Carl Crawford, Chooch Ruiz
SP1-Greinke SP2-Jordan Zimmerman SP3-Peavey SP4-Kyle Lohse SP5-Matt Harvey SP6-Josh Beckett SP7-Doug Fister
RP1-Greg Holland RP2-Mitchell Boggs
Bench- Volquez, Chris Tillman, Lackey, Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Griffen, Iwakuma, Happ, Kazmir, Rafael Betancourt, Hernandez(TB), Fujikawa, Corbin
#16
calzonesays
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 01:58 PM
This is the downside of owning a White Sox pitcher. They have some absolutely craptastic defense. 2 Errors in the inning.
#17
Cmilne23
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 02:00 PM
Everyone say thanks to the WORST fundamental player in the league, just a dogs***t player, Dayan Viciedo for one of the most comical innings of defense ever. Peavy gets a weak pop up to Alexei and he is calling off Viciedo and Viciedo proceeds to collide into him and the ball drops. Then Escobar hits a single to LF and he botches the ground ball off his leg and then jogs to get it allowing Getz to score all the way from 1st. That loser player made Peavy throw about 15 more pitches than he should of. I hate Viciedo with a fiery passion.
Edited by Cmilne23, 03 April 2013 - 02:03 PM.
#18
SurlyRobot
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 02:04 PM
Cmilne23, on 03 April 2013 - 02:00 PM, said:
Everyone say thanks to the WORST fundamental player in the league, just a dogs***t player, Dayan Viciedo for one of the most comical innings of defense ever. Peavy gets a weak pop up to Alexei and he is calling off Viciedo and Viciedo proceeds to collide into him and the ball drops. Then Escobar hits a single to LF and he botches the ground ball off his leg and then jogs to get it allowing Getz to score all the way from 1st. That loser player made Peavy throw about 15 more pitches than he should of. I hate Viciedo with any fiery passion.
#19
TribeFoo
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 02:11 PM
Viciedo just totally loafed on a pop foul that anyone who isn't fat could have caught. Really starting to hate this guy...
#20
Cmilne23
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Posted 03 April 2013 - 02:15 PM
TribeFoo, on 03 April 2013 - 02:11 PM, said:
Viciedo just totally loafed on a pop foul that anyone who isn't fat could have caught. Really starting to hate this guy...
I have been hating him for years. In real life he is just an abysmal player. Piss poor defense, swings at everything -- worst plate discipline in the league, all he does is close his eyes and swing as hard as he can and 22 to 25 times a year he will get lucky. Zero skill involved. The guy sucks.
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