79 replies to this topic

[petekrum]

rraayy3, on 21 February 2013 - 08:35 AM, said:

Can I have injury prone Stafford/Gore/Demaryious Thomas instead? Might as well give me Jamaal Charles too ... undersized back coming off a torn ACL? Yikes ... risky.

I forgot injury prone Sjax/Reggie Bush. Can I have them too? How about my WRs are injury prone (and aging ... double yikes) Andre Johnson with uber injury prone Marques Colston.

You pretty much said "i'd rather have a mediocre team that i'll pretend will never get hurt over much better players that i've seen hurt before" so ny participation in this thread ends now. Good luck with safety over talent.

* i'll save you the time ... all of those "injury prone" players i mentioned not only stayed healthy, they outperformed your "safe" team. this doesnt account for the fact i could sub in guys off my bench if an injury hit and at least come close to the mediocrity your team offers ... but that lineup sure is safe. makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

I'm sure if you tried exceptionally hard, you could probably have missed the point by a little more, but I'm not sure.

Did I say that safe team was the one I would actually draft?   Nope.

The point is that in the rounds where those guys on my injury  team will be chosen there are players who are just as good and not near as likely to miss time. I purposefully chose that safe team to illustrate that average players who play are better than having great players you can't count on. Oh,and I'll bet you a beer my safe team will accumulate more fantasy points this coming year than my injury squad.

[Ribobizert]

rraayy3, on 20 February 2013 - 12:38 PM, said:

sasnumberonefan, on 20 February 2013 - 12:25 PM, said:

I personally do not consider anyone "injury prone" in football. Sure there are guys that get hurt every year, but IMO it's blind luck trying to say someone is injury prone. Football is a contact sport and every play there are violent collisions that occur and anyone can get hurt on any given play. I draft on ability alone.

* high-five * * thumbs up *

* awkward hug*

It's pretty obvious from the varying opinions on this thread that "injury prone" is a non-specific term that is essentially defined by the eyes of the beholder.


You're absolutely correct, football is a violent game and anyone can get hurt on any play.  However modern day medicine will disagree with your analysis on every injury being "blind luck."  Some injuries are random, like MJD or Percy last yr.  Place any player in those situations and your ankle/foot is going to get "jacked up" (BTW does anyone else feel that the absence of "HE GOT JACKED UP" due to concussion/health isues has taken away from the NFL's awesomeness factor?).

Some injuries are not so random though.  There are certain injuries that players sustain that play into the odds of the outcome of a players health when getting hit or planting hard on a cut.  The most blatant example would be injuries sustained to knee ligaments.  Whenever a player damages a knee ligament to any degree it is more likely that they will hurt that ligament again when put through the rigors of any play, i.e RG3 in the playoffs.  Granted the longer time away from the original ligament damage & playing, the greater amount the ligament has healed, i.e. Jamal Charles should be more explosive and cut better in 2013 than this past yr.  

Once you sustain a tear in any ligament it is more likely that a player will re-injure that ligament in the future (once you sprain your ankle, the odds of you spraining it in the future will always be higher than it was before it had ever been sprained according to my Dr).  It's possible to strengthen the muscles surrounding the knee that the odds of getting hurt are less than before, but that is due to having stronger muscles increasing stability.  The repaired ligament itself will take quite a while to get back to its original strength, if it even does get there- doctors debate whether advances in present day surgery will allow a repaired ligament to be as strong as it originally was (torn ligaments use to end most athletes careers in the past).  Nonetheless, when you consider the fact that players are pushed to play ASAP by their teams or their own fear of losing their jobs, it is not enough time for the repaired ligament to be at the strength it was originally.  

I don't want to bore people to death and get into other types of injuries, as i think most of you understand the point i am making, but this concept applies to other injuries as well.  I'm not trying to say any injury sustained makes a player injury prone, you just have to take a good look at the types of injuries a player has suffered in his career when deciding if he is injury prone or not. The statement that injury proneness does not exist is not true.

[Ribobizert]

don't know if anyone has already mentioned him, but Kenny Brittle comes to mind when naming injury prone players.  Anyone remember how sick he was in 2011 before he re-injured his knee and went on IR?

[cbe_88]

Yeah, it was like back-to-back beastly games then POOF gone. I'm really done with Britt for now. I invested in him as my middle round guy last year and he failed in a huge way. He's not on my radar as a fantasy investment. He'll be able to be had later in drafts tho, especially with his off-field troubles.

The biggest thing is I don't have faith in Locker after this year, so someone else can invest in Britt, it's not gonna be me.

[Ribobizert]

Maybe Jake just needs to make a public statement about being an elite QB.....then he would certainly be Flaccoriffic in 2013.  Though that's still not saying a lot imo, as I still don't believe Flacco is as good as his playoff #s.  take away the threat of Rice and Flacco would not have had experienced the success he had.  He is not on the level of Rodgers, Brady, Brees, & Manning, who can all win games on their own without relying on a legitimate RB, the ravens are going to get oopdey ooped into paying him that kind of money.

I think another great example of a stud WR limited by his QB, other than the obvious Fitz situation, is Justin Blackmon.  That kid is a beast but is severely limited by the NFL equivalent of the wizard of Oz's cowardly Lion throwing him the ball...errr flipping the ball in any direction as he cringes & falls away from any defender remotely near the pocket.  I would move Blackmon up BIG time on my WR board if he had a competent QB throwing him the ball.

Edited by Ribobizert, 22 February 2013 - 02:41 PM.

[ipstaff]

I was with rraayy3 when he said he acknowledges there's guys that are more susceptible to injury than others but doesn't run away from guys just because of injury risk.

Also with him when he said he's usually very happy to pick up those high-upside guys with risk at discounted prices that reflect that risk - unsafe and dynamic generally being better than safe and "un-dynamic" - as it's usually not as hard to pick up guys to replace un-dynamic off the waiver wire.  Also gotta acknowledge that nobody is injury-proof in any sport, and especially in football.

I get off the boat where somebody attempts to treat the problem in purely binary fashion - as though to suggest that any player either is "at risk" of injury or "not at risk."  It's football.  No one is a 100% safe pick.  But to not acknowledge that there's a difference between a HIGHER injury risk player and a LOWER injury risk player - and to use a player's past history to attempt to sort players along that spectrum - is plain foolishness.

That said, I used a wide range of strategies to draft my 6 teams this year, and the one that did the worst was my "all-upside" team, where I drafted purely on talent/upside and ignored injury risk (round in parens):

QB: Vick (4)/Roethlisberger (9) (with a midseason pickup of Kaepernick as my plug-in when BOTH of those guys went down)
RB: CJ2K (1), DMC (2), R Bush (6), Hillis (8), Ingram (10), (with Beanie Wells and Bryce Brown as mid-season pickups)
WR: Julio (3), Austin (7), Sid Rice (11), Collie (13)
TE: Gates (5), Olsen (14) (with a Rudolph midseason pickup)

That team finished 6-7.  In a public ESPN league.  The kind that end up with owners that stop paying attention halfway through.  Didn't even get to the playoffs.

Had a few weeks where I completely blew out teams (when the upside crew played to their potential).  But had too many weeks where there were just too many holes, or too many guys putting up small numbers due to an injury during the game.  (An injured player hurts you not only with zeroes you have to replace when he's definitely "out" but hurts you even worse with the 0-3 point abbreviated game when he leaves midgame, especially the dreaded "nagging injury" where it happens multiple weeks in a season).

There's a reason I don't usually draft like that, and it's called *balance*.

In most drafts, I tend to pick up a combination of a few real high-limit risky guys (at an ADP that is discounted from their talent due to higher perceived injury risk), but balance them with the unsexy, safe veteran types who are most likely to provide dependable scoring.  (This "risk" mix I advocate isn't limited to injury risk, either.)

The same way a good stock portfolio is best assembled using a combination of high-limit (but high risk) growth stocks and good old unsexy blue chips.  There's no such thing as a risk-free stock, either - but there's a spectrum of risk to them just like there's a spectrum of risk to football players.

Tends to work in stock trading.  Tends to work in fantasy sports.

Edited by ipstaff, 22 February 2013 - 05:28 PM.

[rraayy3]

Is Adrian Peterson "injury prone" this year or "safe"?

[ipstaff]

You're asking the binary question that I just said I believe it's foolish to ask.  Come on, you're better than that.

To interpret your question, however, as "where on the scale of risk would I put AP?"

He suffered a pretty major injury in college.  He suffered a 2nd one again a year ago.  Those are bad facts.

He also came back like some kind of superhuman this season.  That is a good fact.

I view him as a guy who comes with a higher than average amount of injury risk, but also the kind of otherworldly talent that I'd take him with the 1st pick overall and feel like it was a solid pick.  If he slid to me at any point in the 1st round, I'd feel like I was stealing.

On the other hand, injury-prone poster child DMC - I'm happy to wait for him in the late 2nd to the early/mid 3rd.  Even though he's got mid-first talent.

[rraayy3]

ipstaff, on 22 February 2013 - 05:27 PM, said:

I was with rraayy3 when he said he acknowledges there's guys that are more susceptible to injury than others but doesn't run away from guys just because of injury risk.

Also with him when he said he's usually very happy to pick up those high-upside guys with risk at discounted prices that reflect that risk - unsafe and dynamic generally being better than safe and "un-dynamic" - as it's usually not as hard to pick up guys to replace un-dynamic off the waiver wire.  Also gotta acknowledge that nobody is injury-proof in any sport, and especially in football.

I get off the boat where somebody attempts to treat the problem in purely binary fashion - as though to suggest that any player either is "at risk" of injury or "not at risk."  It's football.  No one is a 100% safe pick.  But to not acknowledge that there's a difference between a HIGHER injury risk player and a LOWER injury risk player - and to use a player's past history to attempt to sort players along that spectrum - is plain foolishness.

so ... you agree with me ... but i'm foolish ... for not acknowledging a difference between a higher injury risk and a lower injury risk ... which is exactly what i'm doing when i acknowledge certain players are more susceptible to injury ... and don't run away from guys [at their reduced draft price relative to their talent/upside] ... and a player's actual injury history is irrelevant ...

i give up.

[cbe_88]

ipstaff, i agree with your post on your views with injury-proneness, it's a balance. Pick a couple of your spots with high risk/reward that you believe in, and let more than half your team be safer picks.

However, at this point, DMC isn't even worth a 3rd round look for me. He's easily the most injury prone fantasy player in my book. We all know injuries can wipe out the best of talents in a season, and DMC has proved this true time and time again, and it doesn't help that his staff can't use him correctly changing schemes back and forth.

[ipstaff]

rraayy3, on 22 February 2013 - 05:44 PM, said:

ipstaff, on 22 February 2013 - 05:27 PM, said:

I was with rraayy3 when he said he acknowledges there's guys that are more susceptible to injury than others but doesn't run away from guys just because of injury risk.

Also with him when he said he's usually very happy to pick up those high-upside guys with risk at discounted prices that reflect that risk - unsafe and dynamic generally being better than safe and "un-dynamic" - as it's usually not as hard to pick up guys to replace un-dynamic off the waiver wire.  Also gotta acknowledge that nobody is injury-proof in any sport, and especially in football.

I get off the boat where somebody attempts to treat the problem in purely binary fashion - as though to suggest that any player either is "at risk" of injury or "not at risk."  It's football.  No one is a 100% safe pick.  But to not acknowledge that there's a difference between a HIGHER injury risk player and a LOWER injury risk player - and to use a player's past history to attempt to sort players along that spectrum - is plain foolishness.

so ... you agree with me ... but i'm foolish ... for not acknowledging a difference between a higher injury risk and a lower injury risk ... which is exactly what i'm doing when i acknowledge certain players are more susceptible to injury ... and don't run away from guys [at their reduced draft price relative to their talent/upside] ... and a player's actual injury history is irrelevant ...

i give up.

Hang on, I never said you were being foolish.  I'm trying to find common ground with you on this, damnit!   And it sounds like we actually tend to look at this subject in a pretty similar fashion.

The comment about the question being a foolish one is solely in reference to asking the question about AP as a binary one ("Is Adrian Peterson "injury prone" this year or "safe"?").  It's a question that actually isn't even in keeping with your other comments about injury-proneness (as you point out in your last response).  "Injury prone" isn't binary.

Don't take it as more than that!

Edited by ipstaff, 22 February 2013 - 07:32 PM.

[pikerbkb]

Quote

Injury prone" isn't binary.

I don't think anyone including raaay is claiming that. I think the "binary" part you are hearing is just raaay's confidence and conviction about certain players who he is convinced are injury prone. We all have our own opinion about who is and isn't injury prone and it would be foolish not to consider a player's past history to decide whether or not he's injury prone. We are just playing percentages and probabilities, balancing risk and return on our investments right? Sure football is a violent game, everybody knows that, but some players, based on style of play, body-type or just dumb luck tend to get injured more than others and miss games/have reduced production levels. I think we all evaluate this in slightly different ways and we all have different tolerances for risk vs. reward, but I think we are all just trying to reach a consensus on different players here and throw out different ideas. Really the whole purpose of the thread right?

Edited by pikerbkb, 22 February 2013 - 07:59 PM.

[cbe_88]

pikerbkb, on 22 February 2013 - 07:58 PM, said:

Quote

Injury prone" isn't binary.

I don't think anyone including raaay is claiming that. I think the "binary" part you are hearing is just raaay's confidence and conviction about certain players who he is convinced are injury prone. We all have our own opinion about who is and isn't injury prone and it would be foolish not to consider a player's past history to decide whether or not he's injury prone. We are just playing percentages and probabilities, balancing risk and return on our investments right? Sure football is a violent game, everybody knows that, but some players, based on style of play, body-type or just dumb luck tend to get injured more than others and miss games/have reduced production levels. I think we all evaluate this in slightly different ways and we all have different tolerances for risk vs. reward, but I think we are all just trying to reach a consensus on different players here and throw out different ideas. Really the whole purpose of the thread right?

Right this thread is much more for debating the injury proneness of certain players, mostly the widely most high profile names that are known for being injury prone (DMC), as well as medium profile players that still require a lofty investment from owners (Amendola, still will have to be penciled in as a starter in drafts)

Also, injury prone players that owners will still take a chance on despite the risk and at what point of a draft a player becomes worth is price considering his risk. As well as players owners are almost willing to take off their board entirely because of this factor.

[Proteus]

Removal of the binary oppositon in this conversation is a sure sign of evolution. Great job. What must follow imo is a gradation such as:

Injury Prone Level 1(IP1): Seemingly Indestructible

IP2: Gets his fair share of dings but doesn't impede performance enough to consider it a damage based on cost.

IP3: Has had at least one long term, even season-ending injury, but returned to form, either in-season or the following season.

IP4: Has had multiple long term, even season-ending injuries. Cumulative effects remain in question, mostly due to new injuries.

Can it be?

Edited by Proteus, 23 February 2013 - 05:56 PM.

[rraayy3]

IP1
IP2
IP3
IP4
Ryan Mathews

[pikerbkb]

Proteus, on 23 February 2013 - 05:56 PM, said:

Removal of the binary oppositon in this conversation is a sure sign of evolution. Great job. What must follow imo is a gradation such as:

Injury Prone Level 1(IP1): Seemingly Indestructible

IP2: Gets his fair share of dings but doesn't impede performance enough to consider it a damage based on cost.

IP3: Has had at least one long term, even season-ending injury, but returned to form, either in-season or the following season.

IP4: Has had multiple long term, even season-ending injuries. Cumulative effects remain in question, mostly due to new injuries.

Can it be?

Nice breakdown Proteus. I wonder where AP would fit? Somewhere in the 2 or 3 category. A. Foster is definitely a 2 so far. LOL @ raaay. Yea, Mathews is in a class by himself so far. When I think of Mathews, I always go back to Fred Taylor's career with the Jags. I think that this is the BEST we can hope for with Ryan.

http://en.wikipedia....rican_football)

Last season was just a disaster, but I really wonder how any other RB with his skill set would have performed with a terrible offensive line. keystone cop HC and GM....I am kind of stuck with Mathews in of my dynasty leagues since he was my 2nd rd pick and there is no way to get a positive return on trading him now. Just gotta hope he finds a way to turn it around.

[rraayy3]

I dont understand how Mathews could look so great in 2011 and then completely fall off a cliff in 2012

Breaks collarbone, OL in shambles ... but he didnt run that well even when he did get the chance. Only speculating but i think the games Norv played by starting Battle really messed up his game and he played scared to fumble.

His highlights from 2011 he looks like a stud in the making (and was a top 10 fantasy rb) ... In 2012 he looked like a completely different player.  Ending with another broken collarbone was the cherry on top of a nightmare season.

[Proteus]

pikerbkb, on 25 February 2013 - 01:21 PM, said:

Proteus, on 23 February 2013 - 05:56 PM, said:

Removal of the binary oppositon in this conversation is a sure sign of evolution. Great job. What must follow imo is a gradation such as:

Injury Prone Level 1(IP1): Seemingly Indestructible

IP2: Gets his fair share of dings but doesn't impede performance enough to consider it a damage based on cost.

IP3: Has had at least one long term, even season-ending injury, but returned to form, either in-season or the following season.

IP4: Has had multiple long term, even season-ending injuries. Cumulative effects remain in question, mostly due to new injuries.

Can it be?

Nice breakdown Proteus. I wonder where AP would fit? Somewhere in the 2 or 3 category. A. Foster is definitely a 2 so far. LOL @ raaay. Yea, Mathews is in a class by himself so far. When I think of Mathews, I always go back to Fred Taylor's career with the Jags. I think that this is the BEST we can hope for with Ryan.

http://en.wikipedia....rican_football)

Last season was just a disaster, but I really wonder how any other RB with his skill set would have performed with a terrible offensive line. keystone cop HC and GM....I am kind of stuck with Mathews in of my dynasty leagues since he was my 2nd rd pick and there is no way to get a positive return on trading him now. Just gotta hope he finds a way to turn it around.

Yes. And I think it's only fair that it can shift, but it should take a whole season to move levels.

For example:

Matthew Stafford, Frank Gore, and Andre Johnson used to be 4s. Now they're 3s.

McFadden's a perennial 4 until further notice.

Aaron Hernandez is a solid 3 but is in danger of sliding to a 4. Same with Gronk.

Harvin was a 2 and has slid to a 3.

Most guys are 2s.

Eli Manning is a 1.

[96mnc]

cbe_88, on 15 February 2013 - 05:07 PM, said:

There are a handful of players I avoid simply due to injury proneness, and was wondering how my list aligns with others. I was trying to piece together a type of rankings of all the mildly-high profile, to high-profile fantasy players who are most regarded as injury prone.

Here's my shot:

1.) DMC - Don't know how he isn't number one, "immense" talent but every year it's something, and it's always a "significant injury, extended time" something.

2.) Mathews - This is pretty high for Mathews but the double collarbone fiasco last year took it to another level.

3.) Nicks - Especially after this year he officially gets the injury prone tag. Elite talent will hard to pass up here, but you'd be foolish not to take into account his injury risk.

4.) Murray - Absolute STUD when healthy, IMO, but foot/leg/ankle issues he's a top-5 injury risk. Missed nearly half of last year with foot problems, and got knocked on to IR the year before with leg/ankle fracture.

5.) Gronk - It's back-to-back years now of scary types of injuries, as opposed to tweaks or slight pulls. Injuries that can affect him possibly long-term. I hated the report saying that forearm will be a long-term liability as more liable to crack again, yikes, and that's your 2nd round pick.

6.) Amendola - It was a serious elbow injury wiped out his entire 2011 campaign, and a long list of different moderate to severe (collarbone) injuries that gave him the "out" tag for half the season and a "questionable" for nearly the rest of it. It's pretty bad, he's right there, could be above Gronk. Gronk will be a much bigger investment for fantasy owners, however.

7.) Forte - Not the worst of injury-prone tags on Forte. Fortunately, a good portion of his injuries aren't IR death sentences to your fantasy roster, he's had his fair share of serious injuries tho, but not quite enough to be in the top-5 for me. He's turned to a near lock to miss at least 2-4 weeks, however. His talent could be worth it, but moderately injury prone he is, IMO.

8.) Austin - I think he's regarded as relatively injury-prone with his nationally acclaimed hamstring issues, both of them have proven liable to be pulled which doesn't help. There were a couple hamstring scares throughout his 2012 season, but he actually managed to play all but one game I believe. He took a step in the right direction, which slips him down to 8 for me.

9.) Hernandez - He's been known to have his fair share of injuries. Nothing too serious, but his "minor" ankle issues last year lingered unexpectedly long last year, and he clearly wasn't playing at a 100% for awhile which won't get him a "quick healer" reputation any time soon.

10.) RG3 - So early in his career so it's relatively difficult to immediately slap him with the injury-prone tag. But documented ACL issues are enough to crack the list, even only after one year in the league. At least immediately for next year he's a huge injury-risk.

Charles? Bush? Graham? Dez? Gore? Stafford? Daniels? Gates? Andre might should make the list, but I like the 2012 healthy campaign he just put forth.

Who cracks your list?

Guys like Beanie Well/Ryan Williams are huge injury prone guys, but these aren't the guys I'm talking about in this thread. These player aren't very high profile and given their ADP's they won't be bigger investments for fantasy owners.

I don't think anyone can argue with anyone mentioned on your list with the possible exception of Hernandez.

[Ribobizert]

Hernandez is an interesting topic when it comes to injury prone players as it appears even with gronk healthy he has carved his own nitch into the offense and is a nightmare matchup with more than avg targets for a TE.  If you look at last year, i'm not sure whether he was inured due to slow healing or being rushed back too soon as they needed him to play while gronk was out.  Later in the season it can be argued that he was being held out because the Pats had positioned themselves as a lock for playoffs and Belichick decided not to rush him back as they needed at least one TE for playoffs & decided to get him as close to 100% as possible.  I guess you would put him as an "IP 2.5"?