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Vance Worley 2013 Outlook


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#1 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:19 PM

finished good a few years ago. had some good games last year but pitched through injuries and didnt have good stats. can he have >3.50 era this.

#2 CM52

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:26 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 17 February 2013 - 04:19 PM, said:

finished good a few years ago. had some good games last year but pitched through injuries and didnt have good stats. can he have >3.50 era this.

Yes, he could definitely have an ERA greater than 3.50.

#3 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 04:31 PM

I meant less than 3.50

#4 Travdaddy10

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:44 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 17 February 2013 - 04:31 PM, said:

I meant less than 3.50

Less than 3.50? Probably not. But he could have some good value pitching in Target Field behind a defense that could improve. I read in the paper they are looking at Florimon at SS for his defense. Jamey Carroll has a solid glove at 2nd. Morneau's always been solid at 1st. In the outfield they Parmelee and Willingham are liabilities, but Mastrionni in center is as fast as they get.
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C - Salvador Perez
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Bench - H. Alvarez, T. Ross, T. Walker, Bradley, Colon, Elias, Volquez, Bedard, DiceK, L. Hawkins, Alex Meyer, Koehler

#5 klove42

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home
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#6 PRoSPx

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:50 PM

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home

All depending on his spring but he has crazy upside.

Sure traded to The AL, but in a better pitcher's park.

#7 klove42

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:51 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home

All depending on his spring but he has crazy upside.

Sure traded to The AL, but in a better pitcher's park.

Yeah I don't really think moving to the AL will hurt him that much just cause Philly is a hitters ball park and now he is in Target field.
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#8 PRoSPx

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 09:51 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home

All depending on his spring but he has crazy upside.

Sure traded to The AL, but in a better pitcher's park.

Yeah I don't really think moving to the AL will hurt him that much just cause Philly is a hitters ball park and now he is in Target field.

Yeah I'd rather take the hit in K's to have better ratios.

Plus The Twins organization have been so damn good at developing pitchers.  Their staff this year looks very unproven and shaky though.  So he's a for sure spot in the rotation so long as he is ready to roll come spring training.

I remember he had elbow troubles at the end of last year, anyone have some details on it?

#9 PRoSPx

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM

Here is actually a very ironic article about him.

http://www.startribu...71.html?refer=y

#10 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home

All depending on his spring but he has crazy upside.

Sure traded to The AL, but in a better pitcher's park.
Actually Target Field was a better hitters park than Citizens Bank last season...
http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor
you can sort through the tabs.

Edited by Stanford410, 17 February 2013 - 09:59 PM.

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#11 ballfan4141

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:04 PM

could his marriage thing hurt his value? lol. things like that can.

#12 PRoSPx

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:13 PM

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:50 PM, said:

View Postklove42, on 17 February 2013 - 07:46 PM, said:

I'm not to sure I would draft him in a standard mixed league but he will be a good streaming option when he pitches at home

All depending on his spring but he has crazy upside.

Sure traded to The AL, but in a better pitcher's park.
Actually Target Field was a better hitters park than Citizens Bank last season...
http://espn.go.com/m...tats/parkfactor
you can sort through the tabs.

Yeah for runs Target was a little higher.  But I tend to use HRs more as a guide which that was even surprisingly close.  But honestly the only reason it was even close was because of how bad Minnesota's pitching was last year and Philly had an above average staff.

#13 PRoSPx

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:14 PM

View Postballfan4141, on 17 February 2013 - 10:04 PM, said:

could his marriage thing hurt his value? lol. things like that can.

But at the same time finding the right woman can also put a guy over the top in the confidence/motivation department.

#14 PepperPot

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:23 PM

Citizen's Bank is definitely a better hitter's park than Target Field.

Here's the article that Rotoworld posted a few weeks ago using Park Factors

http://www.rotoworld...rk-factors?pg=2
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#15 SurlyRobot

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 12:40 PM

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM, said:

Plus The Twins organization have been so damn good at developing pitchers.  Their staff this year looks very unproven and shaky though.  So he's a for sure spot in the rotation so long as he is ready to roll come spring training.
Are we talking about the Minnesota Twins?  The ones that insist on all their pitchers pitching to contact and the best pro they've turned out in about a decade has been Francisco Liriano(you could argue Scott Diamond but that was less than a full season and he didn't even get to come up until there were several injuries)?  Am I forgetting someone significant? :huh:  Or are you talking about all the bullpen arms that moved on to different teams after the Twins refused to pay them?

Part of why the numbers look so bad at Target Field was the players that were playing on the Twins.  If no one on your team can hit any home runs and you play half your games at the park, obviously that'll deflate the numbers.  It was always obvious that was the problem because opposing teams had zero trouble hitting home runs at Target Field(part of this was also due to the Twins' putrid pitching staff I will admit).

Back to Worley, he's probably just a home streaming option at best.

#16 PepperPot

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 01:05 PM

View PostSurlyRobot, on 21 February 2013 - 12:40 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM, said:

Plus The Twins organization have been so damn good at developing pitchers.  Their staff this year looks very unproven and shaky though.  So he's a for sure spot in the rotation so long as he is ready to roll come spring training.
Are we talking about the Minnesota Twins?  The ones that insist on all their pitchers pitching to contact and the best pro they've turned out in about a decade has been Francisco Liriano(you could argue Scott Diamond but that was less than a full season and he didn't even get to come up until there were several injuries)?  Am I forgetting someone significant? :huh:  Or are you talking about all the bullpen arms that moved on to different teams after the Twins refused to pay them?

Part of why the numbers look so bad at Target Field was the players that were playing on the Twins.  If no one on your team can hit any home runs and you play half your games at the park, obviously that'll deflate the numbers.  It was always obvious that was the problem because opposing teams had zero trouble hitting home runs at Target Field(part of this was also due to the Twins' putrid pitching staff I will admit).

Back to Worley, he's probably just a home streaming option at best.

Johan Santana
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#17 2ndCitySox

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 01:16 PM

View PostPepperPot, on 21 February 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

View PostSurlyRobot, on 21 February 2013 - 12:40 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM, said:

Plus The Twins organization have been so damn good at developing pitchers.  Their staff this year looks very unproven and shaky though.  So he's a for sure spot in the rotation so long as he is ready to roll come spring training.
Are we talking about the Minnesota Twins?  The ones that insist on all their pitchers pitching to contact and the best pro they've turned out in about a decade has been Francisco Liriano(you could argue Scott Diamond but that was less than a full season and he didn't even get to come up until there were several injuries)?  Am I forgetting someone significant? :huh:  Or are you talking about all the bullpen arms that moved on to different teams after the Twins refused to pay them?

Part of why the numbers look so bad at Target Field was the players that were playing on the Twins.  If no one on your team can hit any home runs and you play half your games at the park, obviously that'll deflate the numbers.  It was always obvious that was the problem because opposing teams had zero trouble hitting home runs at Target Field(part of this was also due to the Twins' putrid pitching staff I will admit).

Back to Worley, he's probably just a home streaming option at best.

Johan Santana

That was a while ago....
I've got more hits than Sadaharu Oh.

#18 PepperPot

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 02:08 PM

View Post2ndCitySox, on 21 February 2013 - 01:16 PM, said:

View PostPepperPot, on 21 February 2013 - 01:05 PM, said:

View PostSurlyRobot, on 21 February 2013 - 12:40 PM, said:

View PostPRoSPx, on 17 February 2013 - 09:58 PM, said:

Plus The Twins organization have been so damn good at developing pitchers.  Their staff this year looks very unproven and shaky though.  So he's a for sure spot in the rotation so long as he is ready to roll come spring training.
Are we talking about the Minnesota Twins?  The ones that insist on all their pitchers pitching to contact and the best pro they've turned out in about a decade has been Francisco Liriano(you could argue Scott Diamond but that was less than a full season and he didn't even get to come up until there were several injuries)?  Am I forgetting someone significant? :huh:  Or are you talking about all the bullpen arms that moved on to different teams after the Twins refused to pay them?

Part of why the numbers look so bad at Target Field was the players that were playing on the Twins.  If no one on your team can hit any home runs and you play half your games at the park, obviously that'll deflate the numbers.  It was always obvious that was the problem because opposing teams had zero trouble hitting home runs at Target Field(part of this was also due to the Twins' putrid pitching staff I will admit).

Back to Worley, he's probably just a home streaming option at best.

Johan Santana

That was a while ago....

Well he said in the last decade, Johan falls within that time frame.
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#19 PepperPot

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 02:20 PM

I understand his point that the Twins' track record of development in regards to recent pitching prospects has been poor.  But I doubt they are really going to change Worley as a whole.

The main thing for Worley is his elbow.  While it's encouraging that all they had to do was remove bone chips, but as we have seen with other pitchers recently...that doesn't make you return to form.  If his elbow holds up, he should be fine.

I don't like him, because his k rate is at risk of regressing more considering his swinging strike rate has been 5.5% the past two seasons.  When you couple that with the move to the AL and the injury risk...I don't see him being anything more than a streaming option at home (like a previous poster said).
10 Team NL-Only Keeper List 5x5 260 Draft Cap
C: Rosario ($9)
1B: Alonso ($4)
2B: Gyorko ($14)
SS: Hanley ($22)
3B: Rendon ($4)
OF: Kemp ($11) Puig ($1) Yelich ($4)
P: Bailey ($3) Beachy ($1) Cashner ($7) Cingrani ($4) Cueto ($11) Wheeler ($4)
Needs: C,1B, MI, OF, Util, P
10 Team AL-Only Keeper List 5x5 $260 Draft Cap
1B: Hosmer ($15)
2B: Dozier ($2)
3B: Machado ($10)
CI: Lawrie ($10)
OF: Trout ($20) Myers ($5)
P: Moore ($5) Porcello ($1) Hunter ($3) Lackey ($5) Santana ($1) Walker ($5) Kazmir ($5)
Needs: C, SS, MI, OF, Util, P

#20 Ned Ryerson

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 03:41 PM

I think he'll be alright if he stays healthy. I like him in that division.




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