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Tyler Colvin 2013 OutlookCheap 20 HR? How much PT?


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#1 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:31 PM

I don't know much about the Rockies starting lineup but I do know that when Colvin gets decent playing time, he could definitely hit 20+ homers.
2010: 358 ab's- 18 home runs
2012: 420 ab's -20 home runs

He sure has some big power considering he hit a couple of home runs in second deck at Coors. (One was recorded at 457 feet as well.)

So does anyone know how much playing time or what kind of oppurtunity he will get? I have seen that Helton is beat up and they could slide Cuddyer to first; or if Cargo gets hurt like he usually does he could slide over to LF.

One thing to keep in mind; if he can get around 400 ab's or more he could be set for 20 HR this season.
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#2 parrothead

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:36 PM

View PostStanford410, on 17 February 2013 - 05:31 PM, said:

I don't know much about the Rockies starting lineup but I do know that when Colvin gets decent playing time, he could definitely hit 20+ homers.
2010: 358 ab's- 18 home runs
2012: 420 ab's -20 home runs

He sure has some big power considering he hit a couple of home runs in second deck at Coors. (One was recorded at 457 feet as well.)

So does anyone know how much playing time or what kind of oppurtunity he will get? I have seen that Helton is beat up and they could slide Cuddyer to first; or if Cargo gets hurt like he usually does he could slide over to LF.

One thing to keep in mind; if he can get around 400 ab's or more he could be set for 20 HR this season.
Good potential value, can run a little bit too.  Its all about the role and the ABs but like you said, there are pathways you see to PT be it Helton or injured OF.
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#3 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:42 PM

1$ option in auction drafts, decent power upside. You just have to hope he gets in the lineup a decent amount.

Edited by Stanford410, 17 February 2013 - 05:43 PM.

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#4 Cmilne23

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 07:31 PM

They should really give him 1B or OF (and put Cuddyer at 1B) and put Helton on the bench.  Todd is finished.  Rockies would be dumb to play Helton anymore than once a week.  Put Cuddyer at 1B and let Colvin loose in the OF everyday.

Edited by Cmilne23, 17 February 2013 - 07:31 PM.


#5 Halo Fan

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:02 PM

View PostCmilne23, on 17 February 2013 - 07:31 PM, said:

They should really give him 1B or OF (and put Cuddyer at 1B) and put Helton on the bench.  Todd is finished.  Rockies would be dumb to play Helton anymore than once a week.  Put Cuddyer at 1B and let Colvin loose in the OF everyday.

As a biased Colvin owner, I concur.
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#6 Stanford410

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 11:28 PM

View PostHalo Fan, on 17 February 2013 - 11:02 PM, said:

View PostCmilne23, on 17 February 2013 - 07:31 PM, said:

They should really give him 1B or OF (and put Cuddyer at 1B) and put Helton on the bench.  Todd is finished.  Rockies would be dumb to play Helton anymore than once a week.  Put Cuddyer at 1B and let Colvin loose in the OF everyday.

As a biased Colvin owner, I concur.
You think if he got 500+ ab's he could mash 30 HR?
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#7 JFS171

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:36 AM

I think the power is there, but I'd personally worry about the AVG.  

I like Colvin though... thought the Cubs gave up on him way too early.  Instead of dealing him for Ian Stewart, they should have been rolling him out for 500 ABs on a team going nowhere.

#8 JFS171

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 09:50 AM

Now that I look at this a little more, his AVG may not be as questionable as I originally thought.  Yes it's driven by a very high .364, but he also posted a career best 21.4 Line Drive %, which obviously drives a higher BABIP.

The concern is playing time with Rutledge now taking over at 2B, meaning Cuddyer is fixed in the OF.  However, Cuddyer is 34, and Helton is even older.  I would think if they wanted to, they'd find a way to get Colvin in the lineup 4-5 times a week.  In the same situation last year, they got him 450+ ABs.  One would think, given how he produced with those ABs, that they'd look to increase his usage this year.

Not only are the injury concerns with Helton and Cuddyer valid, but also consider the possibility that Colorado falls out of the race by mid-season and looks to flip Cuddyer for a decent prospect, opening RF to Colvin completely (or Kyle Parker - if he keeps hitting like he did last year, but that's a different thread).

#9 uspsjeter2

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Posted 18 February 2013 - 10:12 AM

Nice numbers there JFS thanks for the info.
Digging just a bit deeper, he has almost a 5 to 1 K to BB rate, so that suggests his avg is capped. His xBA was 25 points lower than his actual .290 avg, so let's assume .265 this season hypothetically.
If he keeps a 40% fb rate and a 15% hr/fb rate, neither of which is abnormal and he outperformed both those metrics for an entire half last season, that means .06 of his AB's could likely end up as a HR.   500AB x .06 hr/AB= 30 HR.
And he could steal double-digits to boot. He had a 13% stolen base opportunity rate in the second half and was successful 86% of the time, so with the green light and high success he certainly has the talent.
Here's to hoping the Rockies come to their senses and play him full-time.
A 40 year old Todd Helton should see spotty play at best, and some PH opps.

Edited by uspsjeter2, 18 February 2013 - 10:14 AM.

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#10 whips02

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 07:07 PM

Any new thoughts on Colvin?

He does not have a spot to start, but he should find AB's with aging vets like cuddyer and helton right?

#11 LaFlama Blanca

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 07:16 PM

I like Colvin this year.  I think the Rockies have to find out what they really have with him.  I see him getting between 450-500 abs.  Helton is old, injured all the time and not overly effective, and the outfield has its share of injuries waiting to happen too.

#12 whips02

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 07:39 PM

But is Colvin the backup 1B? I thought it was someone esle backin up old man Helton.

#13 LaFlama Blanca

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Posted 24 March 2013 - 07:48 PM

I'm guessing Cuddyer goes to first and Colvin plays the outfield when Helton is out.  Cuddyer has been injured in the past, and Fowler is a trade candidate.  Colvin, EY, and Pacheco should all receive ample Ab's.

#14 King Felix

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 12:23 AM

I think he'll have a full time job by the end of the year. Helton, while probably the best player in the brief history of the Rockies, just isn't the type of bat that a team can roll out at 1B anymore. Plus, given how bad the Rockies pitching is, I could see Cuddyer and maybe even Fowler being trade bait to restock the rotation. My guess is one of those three dominoes falls by the ASB and we see what Colvin can do. Love the pop, but the main thing I want to see is if the contact/AVG from last year can be sustained or at least approximated.

#15 LaFlama Blanca

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Posted 25 March 2013 - 09:03 AM

He's got definite 25-30 homer power.  Choose talent over situation.  He's got 10 sb potential too.

#16 Coach George

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 07:04 PM

I just saw where Colvin got sent to AAA...

I think he's getting screwed! I don't own him in an leagues but I sure would love to own the guy if he were getting everyday ABs...

The Rockies reported it on twitter...

#17 baltimore_boy

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 07:52 PM

I was surprised to see him sent down, but yet Reid Brignac made it! That's the same Reid Brignac that has struggled to hit over .200 his whole career. The Rockies aren't going to be very good this year, so why not give him time? He hit 18 homers last year.
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#18 uspsjeter2

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 08:01 PM

This move by the Rockies really stuns me. I definitely think he'll be up soon, somebody (Todd Helton) will be injured before long.
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#19 Posting In The Clutch

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Posted 29 March 2013 - 08:49 PM

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#20 budman

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Posted 30 March 2013 - 12:02 AM

Not sure what the Rockies are thinking here? Pretty surprising to see him sent down.




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