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Matt Garza 2013 Outlook


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#1 Skoodog

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:34 PM

Tough luck...really love this guy's high Ks:

http://espn.go.com/b...apparent-injury
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#2 Blood Brother

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:36 PM

sounds like an oblique injury perhaps? At least it's not his elbow, I guess...

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Hitters:
C - Buster Posey (SF - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS)Dalton Pompey (Tor - LF, CF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Steven Matz
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Carson Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (LAA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Arismendy Alcantara(CHC - 2B/CF)


#3 Orion Braun

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 05:58 PM

sounds like an oblique injury perhaps? At least it's not his elbow, I guess...


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Sveum says "mild lat strain" for garza on left side. 20th pitch into a 40 pitch session .
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#4 Cmilne23

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:31 PM

Sounds like nothing serious. Worth monitoring though. This guy carries a pretty big injury risk this year, but I like his upside, especially considering he will probably be dealt to a contender in June or July if healthy. So he should only have to suffer through baseball hell for 2-3 months.

#5 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:43 PM

Sounds like nothing serious. Worth monitoring though. This guy carries a pretty big injury risk this year, but I like his upside, especially considering he will probably be dealt to a contender in June or July if healthy. So he should only have to suffer through baseball hell for 2-3 months.


:lol: Poor Cubbies. Sounds like crisis averted but you never know how other injuries coming back from rehab might delay his progress.....If it depresses his value even more and he can somehow stay healthy, he could end up being a draft day steal.
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#6 Blood Brother

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 06:44 PM

YEah, sounds like they dodged a bullet. Plenty of time before the start of the season to rest/heal up

16 team H2H Dynasty league 6x6(R, HR, RBI, SB, BB, AVG / W, S, K's, Hld, ERA, WHIP)

Hitters:
C - Buster Posey (SF - C, 1B)
1B - Edwin Encarnacion (Tor - 1B, 3B)
2B - Robinson Cano (Sea - 2B)
3B - Miguel Cabrera (Det - 1B, 3B)
SS - Starlin Castro (ChC - SS)
LF - Carlos Gonzalez (COL - LF)
CF - Corey Dickerson (Col - LF, CF)
RF - George Springer (Hou - CF, RF)
Util - David Wright (NYM - 3B)
BN - Oswaldo Arcia (Min - LF, RF), Jean Segura (Mil - SS)Dalton Pompey (Tor - LF, CF), Jake Lamb (ARI - 3B), Lucas Duda (NYM - 1B)
Pitchers:(5 SP/5 RP)
Starters: Clayton Kershaw, Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, Jose Quintana, Jordan Zimmermann, Carlos Martinez, Corey Kluber, Steven Matz
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Greg Holland, Sean Doolittle, Carson Smith, Shae Simmons
Farm System: Andrew Heaney (LAA - SP), Marco Gonzales(StL - SP), Daniel Norris(TOR - SP), Dan Vogelbach(CHC - 1B), Jose Martinez(Ari - SP), Hunter Dozier(KC - SS/3B), Arismendy Alcantara(CHC - 2B/CF)


#7 cyberer

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Posted 17 February 2013 - 10:22 PM

Yeah, he should be back around April 1, just in time to suffer his next injury.

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#8 PRoSPx

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 02:01 AM

Yeah, he should be back around April 1, just in time to suffer his next injury.


That long?

#9 klove42

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 08:12 AM

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.
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#10 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 04:36 PM

If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.


Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....
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#11 klove42

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Posted 21 February 2013 - 04:38 PM


If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.


Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....


Good point, I have last year stuck in my head. I did just grab him in the forums MD3 at pick 189. If he recovers from his current injury in time to start the year I think we could see the same Garza with a good amount of Ks, Decent whip and decent ERA.
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#12 96mnc

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Posted 22 February 2013 - 08:14 PM


If you have a draft soon I would expect his value to really drop until there is more updates on his injury. He is also always injured, but I could see the cubs trying to rush him back so they can trade him by July before he gets hurt again.


Before last year, Garza had thrown 185+ innings in the preceding 4 years and 30+ starts. Seems like a little recency bias that he's always hurt. Until last year, he had actually been rather dependable.....


I know he has had multiple elbow injuries in the past - an inflamed radial nerve in 2008, a elbow bone bruise in 2011, and then last year's elbow stress fracture. I'm not concerned about the lat injury but there's something about his elbow that worries me.

#13 klove42

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 11:41 AM

It looks like he will now open the season on the DL. I actually think this helps his value if that makes any sense. I think his ADP will drop more, and he might end up only missing two starts and come back fully healthy.
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#14 Cmilne23

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 11:51 AM

I traded every single pitcher in my keeper league last year towards the end to load up my hitting. The only one I kept was Garza (he was hurt so I couldnt trade him or I would of) but I retained him cheap. Annnnnd my only starter currently starts the year on the DL. What are the odds? LOL.

#15 Patrick Bateman

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Posted 28 February 2013 - 11:55 AM

I think it's the right move. If he misses one or two starts to begin the season it isn't a huge deal, it's much more important that he get his work in and get healthy. Sounds like this is the lat problem and not the elbow so that's encouraging.....
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#16 crazybob60

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Posted 15 March 2013 - 10:04 PM

How is everyone looking at him now since most drafts have started and they are projecting him to be probably the majority of April?
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DL: Troy Tulowitzki

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#17 Neymar

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Posted 16 March 2013 - 10:48 PM

He's going really late for the upside he's shown in the past. If you are in a H2H league especially, he is definitely worth where he is being drafted.

#18 DWright5

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Posted 18 March 2013 - 06:39 PM

I got him in the last round of my draft. Nice guy to stash at the DL spot. I'm hoping the Cubs trade him to a contender by midseason and he'll be healthy and can get some friggin run support. He would really make sense for a team like the Angels.
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#19 mjb03003

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 10:18 AM

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.

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#20 brockpapersizer

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Posted 26 March 2013 - 11:03 AM

I've been grabbing Garza in every league possible.

Yeah, his elbow injury from last year is a little concerning, and the fact that he's going to open the season on the DL stinks. But as PB pointed out above, he had thrown 30+ starts and 185+ innings in each of the four seasons prior to last season. To add to that, he had a sub-4.00 ERA every one of those years (including last year) and his WHIP has consistently hovered right around 1.25. Those aren't ace numbers, but when you throw in his K/9 ratio that should be right around 8, he's a very solid SP3.

The fact that the Cubs are extremely likely to trade him this year (to a contender perhaps?) only helps his value. Garza is a great value pick in the late rounds, since he's only likely to miss a few turns in the rotation.


I think a lot depends on where you land him. If he's still a mid round pick, it's risky. There can always be a setback and being hurt now makes him liklier to get reinjured. He's on a team that won't get a lot of wins, while he may get traded no guarantees. He's a solid fantasy pitcher, not a great one (trending down it seems) In those rounds, Im looking for someone with more upside and will be there from day 1.
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